Chisoxfn

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:58 PM) I want to stress more here...I did not say that. I was replying to a specific note saying that teams might think some of his struggling was due to the poor team around him...with the important point that those same teams will say "but things he can control, like striking guys out and getting the ball weakly hit, are down too". While his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is slightly up (both are still good numbers), he's also giving up a lot more hits (with a relatively constant HR rate). Didn't look into his line driver rate but I'd argue some of his current results are probably driven by our defense (which sucks) as well as potentially a little negative luck in their.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:54 PM) Oh come on, you're going to say the phrase "Not a valid comp in this equation" and then in the same breath you immediately cite 2 pitchers who were under team control for 1.5 years when they were traded as comparison for a guy who's a free agent this fall? At least they had comparable WAR's and it wasn't as if Peavy's contract was a "bargain" at the time. Throwing a negative WAR player who had no long-term track record of success was awful. I just picked two recent Sox pitchers who were traded and their relative WAR's.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:52 PM) Just looking at last year's deadline, Andrew Miller, a relief pitcher with 1.3 WAR at the time of the trade, returned Eduardo Rodriguez, a top-25 prospect on at least one list who is now doing well in the majors. Martin Prado had 0.9 WAR when he was traded for Peter O'Brien, a catching prospect who will change positions but has plus power. I'm not saying we're going to turn around the team based on who we get for Samardzija, but Balta was acting like 3 win players aren't worth anything. His comp was also a negative win player. 3 win players are valuable. And in Shark's case, he's also coming off a 4.2 WAR season and posted 2.9 WAR's in the two seasons prior to that. He also pitched very well down the stretch for Oakland (in the thick of a playoff race, which should also help).

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:47 PM) They'll be able to get something for him but if they want something big-league ready or close to it they won't get anyone that impressive. Closest I could find to a guy like that, 3 months remaining and ~3 win player last year was the Brandon McCarthy deal and he brought back Vidal Nuno, 26 year old reliever I haven't heard of until right now. McCarthy was a 3 WAR player on the season. He had a negative WAR (BR WAR since Fangraphs doesn't have the WAR breakout by team) with the Dbacks. So the Dbacks go nothing for a RHP who had a negative WAR at the time of trade. Not at all a valid comp in this equation. - Jake Peavy was a 1WAR pitcher at the time we traded him. - Shark was a 2 WAR pitcher at the time he was traded to Oakland

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:15 PM) Even that though has been questionable of late. Eaton was good last year, and stinks this year (and of course, Hector Santiago is now pitching superb). Avi looks like a question mark as well going forward. Avi looks a lot worse because of LaRoche / Melky. If we had Avi in left and had a strong defensive RFer and Cfer, I'd have less concerns (and similarly if Avi got more AB's at DH...he'd still not be a league average DH, but I still see offensive upside in him, I just think his defensive downside is so great right now, especially in RF and when we have Melky in left.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:13 PM) It is problem with drafted players, but we do much better in acquisitions. What acquired position players? Adam Dunn / Melky (current production) / LaRoche / Avisail (I'd argue he has not performed up to expectations, given you have to factor in his defense). Eaton deal would be an outlier as that was positive. I have 100% confident in our ability to scout pitching. I have very little confidence in our ability to scout position players (although maybe I'm not giving them enough credit for the Cuban factor where we did hit on Alexei and Abreu).

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 12:59 PM) I have a hard time saying this team needs 3-4 years to win. With the pitching they have in Chicago and in the pipe, they can put together good to great staffs (barring unforseen injuries which are a risk across all teams anyway) continuously for that period. And usually, pitching is the hardest part to build. They need better offense and defense from the entire skill infield set and catcher. That should be the focus. If enough of those 4 positions can improve substantially, you have a contending team. That's not an easy task, but we are also only talking about 4 positions so it isn't impossible. Yes Avisail is a worry, but he's the least of your problems if this teams skill infield and catcher were putting up even league average numbers on both sides of the ball. That's literally all it would take, in my view, to make the Sox contenders in 2016 - league average or better (both sides) players at those 4 roles. (before anyone screams, I am not saying you can't also improve elsewhere, just that the OF and 1B/DH are either good enough or having unusually bad years so they aren't a priority in my eyes) I completely agree with you. Just think to 2004 off-season (leading up to 2005), we added Pods / Iguchi / Dye / AJP. That is a CF / 2B / RF / C. If we were able to pull off a coup like that again, all of which were avg. to above avg starters at their respective positions, we'd be a serious contender. I don't think we even necessarily have to go to that extreme, although we clearly need to see significant roster turnover in the everyday lineup. Where that comes from, I don't know, but we do have assets in our farm system to move (plus Shark and potentially a guy like Q). This could include people like Tim Anderson who we flip for other prospects if we see fit.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 12:39 PM) Which is exactly what this trade was about. Davidson ended up busting, no joke. That doesn't mean you don't make the same type of trade in the future, especially in an organization which can churn out pitching. No one is talking about the logic here. We are talking about piss poor scouting by the Sox. Case closed and it is a consistent trend (both in terms of acquired position players and drafted position players).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) With the rotation set up we have, and Fulmer on the way, if anyone goes, Q makes the most sense by far. I agree. I think the premise from Cameron is awful. Trade everyone and blow up, no. But it might make sense to trade one of the cost controlled guys and Q would probably be the best bet. I would have to get blown away though (3 top prospects, 2 of which are top 50 guys). Small market (and big market teams) can both be players, which increases potential return, imo. I think between Shark and Q, we should be able to land 4 top 100 guys and 2 top 50 guys, but again, I might be delirious (plus some other fill in's). I still say a trade centered around Puig and a top prospect from Dodgers could make a ton of sense for Sox.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 12:27 PM) If you don't know what is being offered, you don't have a point. Dick's entire premise is the Sox made a trade for a guy that thought was a bonafide starting 3B and he hasn't yet played a game at the big league level. That is awful scouting. None of us know what else was offered but clearly other offers would have been their for read. The Sox scouting department missed the boat on Davidson. No one is saying scouts are going to be right 100% of the time but we didn't get what you got. If the question was, do you trade a reliever for a cost controlled 3B men that starts and is an average to above average starter...answer is probably yes. However, that depends on scouting and the reality is the trade is a failure if you look at it from the perspective we traded a piece who had value (at that time) and got a player incapable of starting. Similarly, the Dbacks could also look at the deal and say they could have scouted read better and got someone better. The Dbacks could also be looking at it going, man, we were right as to why we were willing to trade Davidson (saw that hole and knew he wouldn't overcome it). What we do know is Sox whiffed badly on Davidson.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 11:24 AM) So move cost controlled young assets for a rebuild? Huh. Technically, they were also moving danks, melky and robertson (along with shark) so they were blowing up payroll.

Welcome aboard. Always great to add another Sox fan to the party!!! Now hopefully the team can make the necessary improvements so that it can contend consistently in the future since it looks like this year's offseason was a mirage. The concept to build around pitching is great, but you can't build your team around pitching and ignore team defense. This is the 3rd year in a row where the Sox will rank in the bottom 3-4 spots in team defense, which is just pitiful.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 06:45 AM) Maybe that money is being spent on Bonafacio. The problem with the trade is whether anyone really wants to admit it or not, Reed was a definite asset on a rebuilding team. The asset was traded away for a strikeout machine, which the White Sox apparently are attracted to in their system, who has little chance to ever help the team. If you trade Reed fine. But it isn't about well, Reed ultimately failed so getting a guy that failed is great. Whoever is responsible for scouting Davidson blew it. If you make a trade for a team's #1 ranked prospect, but could have had their #10 ranked prospect, and the #10 ranked prospect turns out to be a better player. You blew it. When Hahn or KW are making trades, it doesn't matter what the BA ranking is. It doesn't matter what the mlb.com ranking is, or what BP or Fangraphs thinks, it's ultimately what the White Sox think. And what they thought of Matt Davidson was wrong. Right on the money. Sox clearly missed the mark on Davidson. They thought he was MLB ready and it was pretty evident that he wasn't (in fact, he's still waiting for that shot with the Sox). He's putting in the work this year but still has major flaws in his game and I find it puzzling that these flaws weren't noticeable. That or we made some changes to him that really set him back (which could go to the point you had mentioned about is it our guys not being able to get through on what to teach or is it our scouting people missing the boat on guys who are coachable or who have the ultimate tools to succeed). Very hard to rebuild a guys swing.

Really like having him. If we can get another good arm for Shark, rotation should be in a great cost-controlled position. How we get those position players though, a real struggle. Would love Hoffman.

Karl is a good coach so normally if I were a fan I'd get upset over a situation like that, but Karl is a proven winner and in George I'd trust (especially given the current state of the Kings). That said, Cousins is a heck of a talent.

US hasn't played sharp but Morgan seems to be getting better every game and the defense has been clamping down (after some early struggles in the cup). I know in our house the cup has been on every day. I also thought I had read an article that ratings through group stage were at all time high's.

QUOTE (Brian @ Jun 22, 2015 -> 10:00 AM) Nah. Her name is Caitlyn. No way.....wait...

QUOTE (Brian @ Jun 21, 2015 -> 10:14 AM) She actually didn't cheat on me. Just lied and misled me. Sucks...so turns out she was a dude afterall and didn't tell you Too soon?

QUOTE (juddling @ Jun 21, 2015 -> 08:41 AM) The Last Ship is back tonight....nice. Not sure how new this news is but Shane from the Walking Dead is going to show up in the Nexflix Daredevil series as Frank Castle aka the Punisher. Was thoroughly entertained with Last Ship (as always...which is a good thing). Curious where they go next though and how it plays out.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 19, 2015 -> 11:28 AM) I think everything I said in that sentence was true. While what you also say is true, I would like to stress again that "a sandwich pick and the money to go with" is really a crappy value to get back for a player and would just be another sad comment on this season. Sox should be able to get a top prospect, plus maybe a competitive balance pick (depending on who they are trading with) and then some secondary prospects. If they don't, then the comp and free payroll along with the production this year is fine. I don't think anyone though Pheg's would do what he did so I can't really harp on the Sox for losing him and Semien is what he is. I like Semien but he isn't a starting SS and we have other 2B options. I don't want to go the route of the comp pick because I'd rather get a near mlb ready position talent.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 19, 2015 -> 10:59 AM) Alexei will not qualify for draft pick compensation. They have an option on him that is for $10 million, cheaper than it would cost to offer a "Qualifying offer" (over $15 million last year). Basically, the White Sox are extremely likely to decline his option this offseason based on his performance this season and that will cost them $1 million to do so. There will be no draft pick compensation for Alexei Ramirez. Samardzija is likely still to receive the qualifying offer, but it's possible that if he keep pitching poorly the front office could actually hesitate on offering him the QO on the grounds that they wouldn't want/couldn't afford him accepting. Probably a low-likelihood scenario but worth keeping in mind. Unless Jeff gets hurt, he'll get the QO. He hasn't been as good as we had hoped but he also hasn't been bad. Fair point on Alexei, I wasn't certain whether the option would impact things on comp side and it clearly would. If he hits a bit better (and he usually does as the season goes on), a team might value the flexibility of that option. Not saying we'd get a lot for him but should be able to get a guy who has the potential to be a league average starter (key being potential).

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 19, 2015 -> 11:01 AM) No they are not. Maybe, maybe Fulmer. Possibly Montas if he has no down dips. None of the others will be. Montas was top 100 by some publications entering the year. He has had an injury but other then that he's got an ERA below 3 and a WHIP of just over 1.1. Micah Johnson also entered the year a top 100 prospect on some lists and while I realize he struggled a bit defensively he's raking in the minors and is still a fringe top 100 guy. Tim Anderson was top 50 by some and while he hasn't hit for as much power, his athleticism is their and he hasn't fallen out of the top 100. Spencer Adams / Danish have had their ups and downs but both are young for their respective leagues and still have upside. Both are outside the top 100 lists now but still far superior prospects to guys anywhere near an organization top 5 in 2012. I haven't even spoke of people like Hawkins who clearly still have talent or Rodon and others. This system was 12th by Keith Law entering the season and they absolutely haven't dropped back to 30th.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 19, 2015 -> 10:51 AM) 1. In what world is Jose Abreu "One of the best hitters in baseball"? His OPS on the season is 10th out of qualified 1b and 39th out of all of baseball. 44th in RC+. His OPS is tied with Mike Moustakas (and Abreu gets the benefit of the Cell). 2. The Farm system will rank right back down at #30 this year, give or take whoever else is having an equally bad year. It was higher last year because of Rodon (Graduated) and some hope from players among Anderson and Danish, both of whom have seriously disappointed this year. 3. The White Sox drew 4,000 more fans/season in 2011 than they're drawing right now, there has been a large cut in ticket prices since 2011, and there will be another large drop in attendance next year. So while every other team is seeing that extra money, we're seeing continually eroding revenues. That makes it even harder for us to compete on an even footing. Abreu's OPS+ is 160 over his career. That would be amongst the top 10 in baseball in that timespan. The farm system will not rank 30th. Tim Anderson, Fulmer, and Montas are top 100 prospects. Our 2012 top prospect was Addison Reed (a closer) with Nestor Molina, Castro, Saldino, and Trayce rounding out the top 5 (Sickels). Our top 5 today is far superior to that and the depth is also stronger. Ticket sales are a very small part of revenues earned. And any of that shortage would be more then offset with increased revenue from revenue sharing / mlb tv deal. And even if you take 10M off that, we are still 50M better off and with actual young and talented players on the roster. I didn't say a lot but far more than that White Sox team had heading into 2012.

Fire Sale is the wrong course of business. You also have to remember as an organization, you need to be careful as to how you handle guys who you signed in the off-season. If you become an organization who quickly churns those guys, you will have a hard time signing guys in the future (without overbidding). With that said, Shark and Ramirez should clearly be moved, however, you should be careful as both could qualify for draft pick compensation, in which case, you have to make sure what you get is more valuable then the comp. I also wouldn't rush to move Alexei...I'd hope he would heat up and increase his value a bit. The other key is going to be probably moving another one of our starters, such as Q, if we can, to again, target young position talent. Or, moving some of our prospects for position talent. One way or the other those are the types of moves that must be made.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 19, 2015 -> 10:12 AM) Every single word you just said can be said about this team and I think the farm system is worse. Oh and John Danks didn't sign his contract until after 2011. 2012 to 2016, 5 year deal. At that time John Danks was 1 year away from free agency and we chose to sign him that offseason. The albatrosses after 2011 were Dunn and Rios. I have said it too many times now on contracts. And I was referring to end of 2011 (since I said 3 or 4 years ago and happened to pick that team) and the team heading into 2012. That roster had Dunn and Rios and Danks now signed long-term (2012). Oh and for the record, salary inflation is a real thing in baseball. Avg player salary is up 6.56/yr in MLB since 2011 (or 33% over the total period...3.2M in 11 to 4.5M in 15). So if I take the 2011 payroll (end of 2011), which was 129.2M and increase it by the 33%, in today's payroll dollars, the equivalent payroll would be 171.83M. The current 2015 payroll is $110M. So our payroll is $61M less then the MLB inflation adjusted 2011 payroll and we have one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball (Sale), one of the best hitters in baseball (Abreu) and another one of the best pitchers in baseball (Quintana). We also have the top pitching prospect in baseball (or one of them) in Rodon and the farm system ranks significantly higher then it did in 2011 (in terms of all publications).