CWSGuy406

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 07:32 PM) Well, since stolen bases don't really advance other runners, as base hits do, I suppose stolen bases should count as singles in terms of SLG %, even if there are times where Scottie might steal second and third after getting on base. If we add steals this way to his SLG% and adjust it (including subtracting cs from sb), his SLG percentage would be .446. Ugh... :banghead It's not quite that simple. You can't just do that. The risk -- in this case, getting caught stealing -- MUCH OUTWEIGHS the reward -- getting the extra bag -- especially considering the next three guys behind Podsednik have a combined total of 102 xtra basehits. That's where the 75% number comes from, fwiw. It's not some arbitrary number that some sabr pulled out of mid-air. If I wasn't so damn lazy I'd google an article on it. Oh yeah -- and now add in the times Podsednik has been picked off this year, which (IIRC) don't factor into caught stealings. Podsednik's base-running this year probably hasn't hurt us this year, as he's right around 70%, and his quickness will usually allow him to go from first-to-third rather easily. I also should say that, certain scenarios do call for the stolen base. Like, any time Scott gets on base against Cleveland, and V-Mart is behind home plate, Pods should always have the green light. When I say that I don't like guys going for stolen bases, it's definitely not a blanket statement that applies to every situation. Since this thread seems appropriate, let me say I'm glad that Kenny didn't go through with getting Willy Taveras this past winter -- .253/.307/.308, his numbers on the year -- yuck. I should also say that if the hypothetical Kevin Youkilis fell right into our laps -- ie, the "unusual" leadoff man who isn't fast, but has a real high OBP -- I'd take him as our leadoff man in a heartbeat.

QUOTE(Jordan4life_2006 @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 03:52 AM) iamshack is cleanin' house in this thread. LOL, he hasn't proven a damn thing. He's done the typical, "I don't understand any of these new-fangled stats" garbage that everyone always does (ie, "Don't think you can just throw out your latest Bill James p Again, chitown got it right a long time ago, and it pretty much went ignored. a.) Podsednik isn't a very good ballplayer. but b.) We don't have anybody else to replace him. and, on the bright side c.) He's not a total blackhole, as he's still getting on-base at a decent clip (.353 OBP -- better than last year), and he tends to see a lot of pitches. Again, this doesn't have anything to do with beyond 2006, but I don't mind Pods finishing out the year in LF. The reason, BTW, that this team hasn't been "optimal" yet (it's been great, but I think it can be better, which is a testemant to KW), is obviously 'cause "the greatest five man rotation in history" (ugh, Hawk) hasn't lived up to the billing...

QUOTE(TitoMB345 @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 04:21 PM) Look at SABR metrics all you want, but they don't provide intangibles at all. Scott HAS heart, and the team loves that. Well, I'm convinced. No arguing with that... St00pid statheads, don't you know the game isn't played a spreadsheet? Get yer head outta the computer! :rolly Who the hell loves Jerry Owens? You mean the guy currently with a .311 OBP at Charlotte? Even last year, when he was hitting .340 or whatever, I still think I had him pegged as a 4th OF type.

Griffey? Cincy has as much a shot as anybody to win the Wildcard. Hell, maybe they get a little lucky and make a run at St Louis for the Central crown... How about Abreu? His name has been thrown around forever, and I think there's still around $20 million left on his deal.

Solid work there, SFF. If you're not registered at talkbhawks.com, please do, and post this -- I'd like to pin it somewhere for reference.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jul 10, 2006 -> 07:20 PM) Bell will be a much better player now that he is not a Blackhawk. True, but he'll never have anywhere near the scoring ability that Havlat has. I like Bell. Solid, all-around player, seems like he could be a helluva captain. Tough, will stand up for his teammates. I think he could become a 60 point guy for San Jose. However -- if you've watched the Hawks even one bit over the past couple years, you'd know that they don't have a pure scorer. Even with their latest drafts -- I'm talking Toews and Skille -- neither are 'pure scorers'. Getting Havlat was a brilliant move by Tallon. Maybe I just have the red-and-black tinted glasses on, but the Hawks first-line of Calder/Ruutu/Havlat has the potential to be really good (if Ruutu is healthy -- watch out). If the Hawks do go out and sign Sergei Samsonov -- while he's not a top-of-the-line forward -- that would make this team fairly deep. No great lines, but it'd push one guy down each line, and push a fringe guy down to Norfolk.

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Jul 10, 2006 -> 07:01 PM) The best point I've yet to see made is that moving him to LF decreases his value, even if it's just because you're set for the next couple years with Crede at 3B, moving him now sends a message to other organizations that you don't think he can stay there, while even if not true, it's all about perception. QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Jul 10, 2006 -> 06:51 AM) Dan's right here. Talking about value (from the standpoint of other teams) for a second... Fields at 3B >>>>>> Fields at LF

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jul 10, 2006 -> 08:55 AM) Call me crazy, but I still see Jon Garland and Josh Fields ending up in San Diego for Scott Linebrink, Scott Cassidy and Cesar Carillo. A deal that makes sense for both teams. How the hell does that make sense for the Sox? So, the Sox give up their third best SP (as of right now, if you don't include B-Mac), a 3B who will probably be a top prospect after putting up a 1.000 OPS, for two relievers and a decent but not great SP prospect? Sheesh... everyone wants to trade for these big name relievers while giving up Fields/Sweeney/Broadway. Look at the bullpen right now, look how they were acquired. McCarthy - homegrown. Jenks - Waiver pickup. Cotts - A PTBNL in the Koch deal. Politte - Cheap FA signing that didn't require coughing up a pick. Riske - Traded for Javy Lopez. Thorton - Traded for Borchard. Hmm, I'm sensing a trend here.

QUOTE(danman31 @ Jul 10, 2006 -> 12:10 AM) Fields looks like a DH down the road anyway. Maybe next year he can play 3rd and DH when Crede or Thome are off. He'd only be playing 2-3 times a week but that's the best case scenario I see, at least within this organization. Dan's right here. Talking about value (from the standpoint of other teams) for a second... Fields at 3B >>>>>> Fields at LF If Fields continues to rake throughout the second half, I could see him going in a BIG trade this offseason. As to what/who he would be traded to/for...

Hehe -- is B-Mac's one friend our top hitting prosect, Josh Fields?

QUOTE(Capn12 @ Jul 7, 2006 -> 05:51 AM) Danman, quick question...I'll admit I don't keep up with the minors even remotely as close as I used to. Has Broadway been as good as his numbers portray? Whats the long term forecast for him seem like to you, or anyone else that reads these threads. I feel semi-qualified to answer this question (although the more opinions you get, the better answer you'll obviously get), so I'll give it a shot. Broadway this year -- Really, I don't think anyone can complain about the year Broadway has had this year. He isn't having a 'top-pitching prospect' type year, but then again, I don't think anybody here or anybody in the Sox organization expected that when he was drafted. His stuff, particularly his curveball, is/was good, but it wasn't what you'd qualify as 'nasty' or 'wicked' (you know what I'm saying?). Without making this too long, here are Broadway's problems. First, his K/9 has dropped dramatically this year. With his recent start, he's striking out about six batters per nine IP -- that number is a bit too low. His WHIP certainly isn't dominating by any stretch, either. And, while his 2.92 ERA is good, he is pitching in a real good pitchers' park. That being said, he's got his K/BB ratio up to about 3/1. He's also only given up six homers, though (again), part of that is due to the park. After typing all of this, I realized that you didn't ask for any real analysis. You want a black-and-white forecast or projection. My best guess would be a right-handed Ted Lilly, or Jon Garland pre-2005. I expect Broadway to be a guy who will give you 200 innings a year of an ERA fluctuating between 4.25-5.00 (depending on league, stadium, etc etc). Basically, I expect a solid back-of-the-rotation type starter, but not a guy you want leading your staff. I also don't think he'll get a chance to pitch for the Sox. At this point in time, the only guys the Sox will be able to stick in their rotation from their farm system (for good, I mean -- not just a spot start now and then) will be guys who absolutely tear through the minor leagues ala McCarthy, or guys with solid arms like Lumsden could potentially have.

That OPS is creeping towards .900; certainly a great bargain for what, $2.5 million (that's what Oakland's paying him). Come on, big man, 34 more...

QUOTE(T R U @ Jul 6, 2006 -> 03:37 AM) Wrong. Goldeneye was the best game ever for N64, there really is no competition About eight years ago or so my buddies and I would play Goldeneye for hours on end. Gotta have 'paintball' mode on, though. That, and the WCW/NWO Revenge series. Those wrestling games were the best. Ahh, those were the days... I'm gonna go back a little further, and bring up the BEST sports game (BAR NONE) of the 90s. EA Sports NHL 93-95 were probably the best NHL video games ever made. Why EA hasn't put one of those games onto one of the newer versions of the game (like Madden did with one of their older games in M'05) is beyond me. I thought I heard that they put NHL '94 onto NHL 2006, but I never went out and rented it. Anybody have NHL '06? I'm going off-tangent here, but the video game scenes in Swingers and The Breakup (both with Vince Vaughn) are two of the funnier, more-memorable moments in my 'movie lifetime'.

Before I ask this question, you'll have to forgive me for not quite remembering some names (it's been a while since I saw S2): Mary Jane's boyfriend -- the guy she was going to marry before Peter Parker 'saves the day' -- he is an astronaut, yes? I never was big into the comics, but I was told that he goes into space and has a sort of accident, turning him into a villain. Who does he turn into (if, in fact, all of the above facts are correct), and will he be in S3?

Wait, so when is Carlos Lee getting traded to the Cubs now?

Is there a reason why Lamura isn't in Charlotte this year? He pitched decently in about 40 innings of Birmingham last year, and he's a little old for AA. It's tough for me to get excited about a 23 year old repeating AA, even with the nice K/IP numbers. He should be moved up to Charlotte within the next month, yes?

QUOTE(RibbieRubarb @ Jul 3, 2006 -> 08:10 PM) Veteran team, veteran top 2 pitchers with a 57 hr hitter. Big difference. 1.) Veteran team or not, the offense on that Diamondback team, for the most part, sucked. Luis Gonzalez was good, Reggie Sanders and Mark Grace were decent. They had a pretty good bench, which helped, but for their starters, they had three above average hitters. The Twins are a much more well-rounded team, and as of a couple weeks ago, got better at three different positions, without even mentioning the pitching. The left side of the infield just got a HUGE upgrade, replacing Castro with Bartlett and Batista with Cuddyer. Jason Kubel is finally healthy, and is hitting the way he was pre-injury. Morneau is flashing his power potential. Need I mention Mauer? 2.) So, Johan Santana is going to flip the calander, see it's September, and start to suck? Or, wait -- Liriano is going to do that, right? 'Cause he's a rookie? Is that what you're saying? No real good reasoning, just that their young, and don't have that mystical "veteran presence"? Ha. Ha ha. The kid made the point that two pitchers (starters, as he was pointing to Santana and Liriano) can't carry a team. They most certainly can. It helps when you have a guy challenging to hit .400, a decent back-of-the-rotation, a good bullpen, and a decent overall lineup. *Yeah, and before I get jumped all over, having people say "so you'd rather have the Twins team?", no, I'm not saying that. First off, I was making an off-hand comparison between the Twins and the D-Backs, not the Sox. Second off -- as much as I love Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras -- neither are going to touch Randy Johnson's 184 ERA+ from that year (not to mention his 372 strikeouts). Heck, I doubt either get to Curt Schilling's 154 ERA+.

QUOTE(GoRowand33 @ Jul 3, 2006 -> 06:38 PM) I'm not worried about the Twins as of now because they did their damage against the inferior NL and no way in hell they keep up their winning. also 2 pitchers do not win divisions, so I expect a little trail off there http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2001.shtml

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jul 2, 2006 -> 05:26 AM) Yeah, totally, I mean, we arent even in contention. Our pitching is horrible, our defense is horrible, and our hitting wont come around. What ever can we do? ... Still waiting for you to explain how Vazquez pitched "good" today...

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jul 1, 2006 -> 10:32 PM) Didn't Vazquez pitch great his first half with the Yankees (like 2.something ERA), and then pitched so badly in the second half that his ERA was almost 5 for the year? I'm afraid we're going to get that terrible second half again without the great first half to counter it. Ehh -- over his career, his post all-star break ERA is almost a half a run lower than his pre all-star break ERA (4.51 to 4.09). I wouldn't put too much stock into the year in New York.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jul 1, 2006 -> 09:56 PM) Javy pitched a good game today, i cant believe the reactions of some of the people on here. Yeah, that damned wind caused Javy to hang breaking balls to Aramis Ramirez -- TWICE. Maybe we can put a retractable roof over US Cellular to help Javy out a bit, poor guy.

QUOTE(aboz56 @ Jul 1, 2006 -> 08:59 PM) I wonder who the last team was who won a World title with a regular hitting .170. Well, in 2002, Anahiem had Bengie Molina behind home plate -- he finished with a .245/.274/.322 line. Anderson is basically doing the same thing this year; .174/.270/.304. Oh, and I don't think Brian is going to continue to hit at that pace, either -- he's doing a much better job at the plate. Even today (yeah, I know, he didn't get the bunt down), he ripped a double in his first AB, and hit another ball pretty hard for an out to CF. The comparison between Molina and Anderson fits, too -- neither are there for the offense. Both, however, are (or 'were', in Molina's case) in the category of 'elite' defensively. Might I add that CF is arguably the second most important place to have a stud defender. EDIT: I'd also like to say that there are very few names out there as far as reasonable replacements. Mike Cameron is really the only guy who won't give you a huge downgrade in defense, while upgrading offensively.

QUOTE(Jordan4life_2006 @ Jul 1, 2006 -> 08:38 PM) He has? We could've kept Duque if a 5.20 era is fine for a 5th starter. It sure would be a lot cheaper, and we could've kept Chris Young. Good point. When you trade a top 25 prospect in all of baseball, and are paying a guy close to $10 million bucks, you expect a little better than a 5.15 ERA. This is getting pathetic -- that pitch to Aramis was absolutely BRUTAL, Juan Pierre probably could've hit it out. Ditto his pitch to Ramirez in the first inning, breaking ball over the inner half of the plate. I'm willing to give Vazquez a little more time, as everybody can see he has pretty decent pure stuff. But, if this continues into his next couple starts, putting McCarthy in the rotation needs to be explored. Oh, and I'll puke if anybody points to Javy's eight wins as a measure of his 'success'.... ---------------- Boy, Jason, I'd be all over any move that brought over Scot Shields. The Sox could really use a dominant right-handed setup man...

Well, let's see. He's left-handed, and he doesn't allow a lot of homers... Now, the bad: * His K/BB ratio is pretty bad. A little over a week ago, it was almost 1-to-1. Right now, it's about 1.26 K's/BB, which is, like I said, bad. * His hit rate isn't great, either. His WHIP is around 1.43 -- again, nothing special. * His ERA is 4.00 in Birmingham. Jason, Tom, or someone who has seen Liotta before -- how does his stuff rate? As of this point, he seems (IMO) to project to a lefty reliever, if he can make it that far. Then again, TINSTAAPP can be applied here too...

Unreal. RIP Randy Walker, and thoughts go out to his family and friends.