HuskyCaucasian

Well done kid. Well done!

Looks like almost all the precincts are in other than Lake. it all hinges on Lake.

QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:20 PM) Yah, but what can anybody do about it? It just sounds like whining. Oh I agree. i am not whinning. Let the media hash this out.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:17 PM) I wonder if it's possible for Obama to actually pull off the delegate victory in Indiana even if the state goes slightly against him. I think it'll be 3 or less one way or the other.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:14 PM) By the way, this looks like there's a good chance the margin will be under 10,000 votes either way. Anyone think the Limbaugh effect can't easily have accounted for those? It's showing up in the exit polling as potentially pushing several times that many crossovers. Most of the time when i say it, I get shouted down. but this could be a REAL republican effort to keep her alive. Like I said earlier, if you facotr out the republicans, the exit polls show Clinton +2.8 rather than almost 5.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:09 PM) SHUT UP! NO HE DOESN'T! NONE OF THOSE J WORDS! lol I hate baseball superstition.

FOr those not paying attention: Gavin Flyod has a no-no in the 8th

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:00 PM) The only 2 worth noting are Wayne County and LaPorte County. Wayne County hasn't come in at all yet, and voted 10000 for Kerry in 04. LaPorte I already mentionned. So a big Hillary win in Wayne County means that between those 2 the margin is 6500 coming in favor of her, which I think probably cancels out everything other than Lake County that still has to be counted that would be PrObama. He'd need to win Lake by about 35000 votes then I think, give or take 5000, which means he'd have to win Lake by the same margin he won Indy, give or take again. I bow to your superior research. lol

QUOTE (fathom @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:53 PM) FWIW, I really appreciate what you and athomeboy bring to this part of the board. Well, you are welcome You should see the spreadsheets I have. lol I always was a math geek at heart.

Gap down to 3.226%

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:44 PM) Just based on the math, assuming Lake county is similar to Marion county, that Obama winds up about 10,000 votes short. That's a lot closer than I expected. MSNBC says the Obama camp expects to come up 15,000 short. That's 1 or 2 points. That's STUNNING!

FYI: If my numbers are right, Obama just passed Clinton in popular vote (primaries AND caucuses) INCLUDING FL and MI. +61,063

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:17 PM) Just did some simple county math. Obama's down about 45,000 votes right now. From what is left around Indy, he's got about 18,000 or so more votes coming in those areas if you assume that his margin stays the same and each precinct has similar turnout. Monroe County (IU) only has 9% in so far, projecting that is rough but it might give 5000 or more based on the current margin. Lafayette isn't in yet at all, and Lake/Laporte aren't in either. I'd guess that from the Hillary areas that haven't reported yet there's less than a 5000 vote margin left for her. That leaves about 27,000 votes he'd need to make up in Lake and Porter and Lafayette and Monroe. He can pull this off. If not, it might get down to 1 or 2 points.

Looks like IN will be

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:24 PM) 52-48 with 71% in. Still nothing from Lake. 52.353 - 47.647 (Clitnon +4.706)

QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:00 PM) The lead is down to 6 points now... and it's all Obamaland left to come in... 49,169 votes between them right now.

If I did my math right.... if you factor out "republican" votes and only look at Democratic and Independent voters... Clinton wins 51.44 - 48.56 (+2.88). That compares to 52.2 - 47.25 (+4.95) Interesting.

I think the stations are waiting to call Indiana until the "Lake Michigan" aka "Chicago Market" counties report. CNN has NONE of them reporting anything yet. Kieth Olbermann said on MSNBC it is too EARLY, not necessarily too CLOSE to call.

Seriously, Norah O'Donnell is hot.

apparently CBS called IN for Clinton

No call on Indiana yet. This HAS to be close. They called Ohio in 30 minutes and that was a 9.2 point win for Clinton.

N.C. Exit Poll via MSNBC- Obama 54.86% Clinton 41.14%

MSNBC and CNN calls North Carolina for Obama

Clinton spin begins. A supporter just said they were outspent 2 to 1 and they were 15 points behind and won. Except... well, not! Every poll since March 29th has had Obama +5 at max. The +15 poll they keep referencing was a small poll conducted in the middle of FEBRUARY!

Exit Poll via MSNBC- IN Obama 47.25% Clinton 52.2% They SPLIT Men 50-50. Women go to Clinton 54-46. I do not know if these are weighted or unweighed.