HuskyCaucasian

QUOTE (mr_genius @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:38 PM) I believe Huffingtonpost also predicted Obama to win PA too, and it was way off. The seem to cherry pick this stuff, not really a reputable source. I dont think they ever projected him to win PA. They were just reporting the exit polls. A lot of people want to see them, so it's a rush to get them out. They just weren't weighted. They should make that clear that they are NOT weighted.

Unweighed Exit Poll... Indiana Obama: 50.5% Clinton: 49.5% In PA, the vote ended up going 5 points MORE to clinton. So, even with that factored in, She only takes IN by 5.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ May 6, 2008 -> 04:57 PM) I assume this means Indiana? yes

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 6, 2008 -> 04:34 PM) Indeed. Nothing but a handful of small states left (delegate-wise). Ok, did the math. If they take each state by 10%, Clinton then needs 87% to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates. Lets factor in MI and FL..... If they take today's states by 10%, Clinton then needs 61% to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates. Now, I dont think they will seat FL and MI 100%. i think in the end they will be seated, but will count as half like the republicans did. So, she would then need 74% of the vote.

Note: If Obama takes NC huge, he will retake the popular vote evan IF you include FL and MI

MSNBC is reporting that there has been a HUGE turn out in HEAVY (75% republican) republican districts. So huge the turn out is bigger than in the 2004 presidential election! No one is really sure how this will work it self out. Might be centrist republicans going to Obama. Could be far right trying to keep "Rev. Wright" out of the White House. no one is sure yet.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ May 6, 2008 -> 03:24 PM) So they will split the states tonight and each have enough spin to make this last longer. Likely nothing settled tonight.... again The road just got a LOT steeper for her though. She'll need something like 80% of the remaining pledged delegates (not including FL and MI) to win the pledged delegate count.

QUOTE (bmags @ May 6, 2008 -> 04:20 PM) remember that early exit polls have been heavily Obama since the beginning. that is correct. i should have mentioned that

Huffington Post just released the first exit polls... Clinton +7 in IN Obama +12 in NC.

Someone on MSNBC just said polls show Obama pulled 90% of the black vote in NC. Apparently, the belief is that if Clinton cant get more than 10-15%, she is toast in NC.

Amazing. If you arent for them, you are against them. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton ran an ad showing all the "elitist" economists who supported his economic plan. Now that they dont support his wife... to hell with 'em!

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ May 6, 2008 -> 02:24 PM) what number do you think this happens at? Meaning Hillary winning Ind. but getting handily beaten in NC (let's say 10 or more points). Is 5% in Indiana enough? I suck at this game. lol I have no idea. I think less than 5 is hard for Hillary to spin. Especially when you look at the delegate count.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 6, 2008 -> 02:10 PM) Yes, but I really don't think Obama wins IN. Clinton will win it by a few points, maybe more, and she'll cling to that as her reason for staying in. Supers would start jumping to Obama at a record pace and might force her out.

QUOTE (Brian @ May 6, 2008 -> 02:06 PM) If Obama wins both states, is Hillary pretty much done? To 99.9999999% of the US- Yes To Hillary Clinton- No.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ May 6, 2008 -> 11:19 AM) We do national elections on one day, why not primaries on one day as well? 3 months campaigning and debates, then primary election. I once thought that too. But dont forget, a national primary day requires several month of nation wide campaigning that is VERY exspensive. That means people either need to raise a TON of money very early, or they need to be independently wealthy. If this model were used this year, we'd probably have Clinton v Romney or Guiliani. McCain would NEVER have had a chance and Obama would have been way behind Clinton. Remember, he had money, but Iowa gave him a springboard. I said before Iowa that if Obama lost, it was all over... but if he could win it would give him a fighting chance.

QUOTE (lostfan @ May 6, 2008 -> 09:34 AM) I prefer the Dems' dividing the system up proportionally to the GOP's winner take all system, it's the most democratic and encourages them to campaign evenly to get as many votes as possible instead of just surrendering in states where the demographics don't favor them. Otherwise you'd have never seen Obama campaigning in Texas, Ohio, PA, you would've never seen Pander Bear campaigning in NC or anywhere else in the Deep South. sorry. I meant the model of how the primaries are staged, not how the delegates are awarded. i like the democratic model better on that.

QUOTE (greasywheels121 @ May 6, 2008 -> 10:20 AM) Well, I've performed my civic duty.

We always assume Texas is a hard red state. But is it in play? two polls in Texas show McCain by 1 and 5.

What's wrong with Hillary? Why cant she win NC? IS there something wrong with her? This raises serious doubt about her ability to win the democratic nomination.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:58 AM) The interesting one will be to see what the Dems do to ensure that their mess doesn't happen again. Their primary has been a complete disaster. 1) Use the GOP model. (Note: due to the cost of the primary system, if one party makes a change, the other party almost always has to follow) 2) DUMP THE SUPERDELEGATES!

Not sure where this would go, so I created a new thread... GOP seeks order to primary chaos

Ok, this is bizarre...

This is something you will want to read about. More in a second.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 5, 2008 -> 11:42 AM) SurveyUSA- Clinton +12 in Indiana No SurveyUSA NC poll SurveyUSA: Obama +5 in NC

QUOTE (lostfan @ May 5, 2008 -> 01:12 PM) "Not quite sure if the pepper spray was necessary..even if he did run..he only would have gone about 2.7 yards before falling down on his own account." :notworthy