ZoomSlowik

First off, the Big Ten is kind of weak this year, so you never know. Second, TCU has a very good offense, it's not like the little sisters of the poor put up 48 on them. Second, they managed to win the Big Ten in 2000 with a weak defense, they just outscored everyone, much like Michigan did that year to share the title. It looks like they could be doing that again, with what looks like could be some interesting shootouts against Minnesota and Purdue. Lastly, you're drawing conclusions from one game against a team that to the best of my knowledge no other Big Ten team plays, while no other Big Ten team has played yet. As for the kicker thing, that really disheartened me. That will be the last thing I say about it.

How the hell did you get Lewis and Alexander? That's pretty sweet. Very good RB situation, nice move grabbing Westbrook with Lewis' drug case pending. McNair is solid at QB, and I love Andre Johnson. I don't like your other receivers as much but you can probably find some good options on the waiver wire once the season starts.

I think you are putting too much stock in the players around the player. Great players will produce virtually regardless of the situation. Walter Payton and Barry Sanders put up monster numbers with little support from the rest of the offense for the majority of their careers. LT is a supremely talented back that will do just fine, especially since he is a solid pass receiver and does not rely purely on his running ability. If anything the new QB and lack of receiving threats will net him more passes, making him even more dangerous as a receiver. Duece will be just fine too. He's another guy that can be a huge part of the offense, and their are other options around him to stop teams from stacking up against the run. I like Portis a lot, but I would put these two guys in my top 3 also. Green had a career year last year, and there are a lot of weapons that can steal yards and scores from him on the Packers, plus teams will key on him more. You should always be wary of a guy who goes from about 1300 to 1800 yards in a season. Priest is pretty good, but expecting him to put up those kind of touchdowns again is nuts. He didn't rush for nearly as many yards as the other studs(barely 1400) and is getting kind of old to be a really high pick. I'm not a huge fan of Alexander. Take out that one monster performance last year and his numbers look a lot more pedestrian, plus one would think that they would throw the ball more this season. However, you still have to take them if they are there. As for saying you should take Moss over one of the top runningbacks, that just shows a lack of fantasy football knowledge. There is a much bigger dropoff from the top RB's to the average RB's than there is from the top WR's to the average WR's. Even if Moss has a monster season, the most you can probably expect is about 1600 yards and 15 TD's. An average WR that you take 6 or 7 rounds later will probably get you about 800 and 5. However, at RB, and elite guy will get you at least 1800 total and 10 TD's in an average year, while if you can even manage to get an average feature back(they're usually gone somewhere in round 5) later in the draft, he'll probably get around 1000 and 6. There are too many situations where RB's are splitting time to pass on one of the studs. There are only about 25 teams that have a definite starting RB, while there are probably 3 times as many productive receivers. Passing on a top RB is a ticket to the bottom half of the league unless you get really lucky on a late round pick.

No, Boldin is not out for the year, at least not yet. Certainly a few weeks though. I think you made some poor choices. I would assume that you picked 9th or 10th since you got Moss in the first. You gotta take a RB with one of your first two picks, there just aren't enough good ones to go around. I know Culpepper is one of the top QB's, but you gotta get one of the top 15 RB's or so. I think it was a bit of a reach to get Jones in the 3rd too. Admittedly I don't know who was available, but I gotta think there were other strong options out there. How many teams are in this league? From the looks of your team it's gotta be a pretty deep league.

To tell you the truth I'm not so sure about their depth. 4 of their guys are awesome, and Lee is a solid bench guy, but they are going to have to depend on freshmen for some solid minutes. I know tons of teams do it, but unless they get the studs it's an iffy situation. I think UNC is a better team. They're deeper than you think. Outside of the post spot they have some talent. Felton and McCants make up one of the best backcourts in the country, and Scott and Quentin Thomas(top 100 frosh, not a stud, but should give Felton a couple of minutes of rest) are pretty good backups. They got a ton of swing guys to play the 3/4 position, with Jawad and Marvin Williams(absolute stud freshman, looks a Luol Deng type player) as the best two. The also have Jackie Manuel as a defensive stopper and David Noel off the bench as an energy type guy. There is also a chance that Reyshawn Terry(solid recruit that didn't play much last year) develops, which would help a ton. The only weak spot is at center, May is the only option. They are in deep trouble if he gets hurt(although I think you can say the same about Kansas with Simien). I'd certainly love to see the two teams play.

I would like to see Valentin go, but I don't see a whole lot of options out there in FA. Unless we can somehow steal Renteria from St. Louis, Cabrera from Boston, Nomar from the Cubs(I don't want him anyways, and I doubt the Sox would cough up enough cash, but I must include him in this list because he is an upgrade over Jose), or Guzman from Minnesota, there isn't a ton out there. As for Uribe, he's not any better. He might be a slight upgrade defensively, but he is just as bad if not worse at the plate, the only reason his average is higher is because he hit everything in sight in April and May. I think we need to do something at SS, but if we lose out on the top guys I'm not going to hang myself or hunt Kenny down if Jose is back.

I know Wilkes never played, but Padgett was a starter that was okay. He was a freshman that had a lot of talent. Even if he turned out to be Eric Chenowith that is still a very useful player to have on your roster. Their 3 centers were were pretty solid prospects, although none of them are studs, the only reason they are all top 10 at center is that a couple of the stud prospects were listed at PF even though they would almost certainly play center in college(like Dwight Howard and Glenn Davis). Kaun was rated 34(5th center) by rivals, Jackson was 54(not even listed at center, 12th PF), and Giles was #62(#9 at center). Their highest rated guy was Robinson, who is a guard. None of them were McDonald's All Americans like Padgett. They should be fine(I got them #2 in my personal preseason poll), I'm just saying don't rip on another team for loosing players(who were not even enrolled in school yet) when your favorite team happens to lose 3 guys on the roster including a starter, and then say they didn't lose anyone. They still have to get one of these guys to make an impact, and since Kaun is widely considered a project it will probably have to be one of the two lower rated guys. As another point, altough Miles and Langford are good, you gotta be pretty biased to say Miles is better than Paul, Felton, Thomas, AND the two guys from Illinois(might be better than a few, but no way it is all), and if you are going to compare 2 guard/SF type players I'd much rather have Julius Hodge or Hassan Adams(If you were referring to Giddens, I might have to digress. He is extremely talented, although I'll have to see a little more to count him as the best). Oh well, your opinion. I wish no ill will toward the Jayhawks in any way, so good luck.

I definitely agree with the hammerhead's statements about CB's. If you get one of the top guys in the first round, many of them make an impact the first year, and even those that don't seem to show a lot of improvement. Of those guys in the top 10, Woodson, Bailey, McAlister, and Newman are all studs, and Springs is decent too. That seems to be a way higher hit rate than pretty much any other position(although technically Roy Williams is a safety). I'm not 100% sure that anyone in the coming draft is of that caliber yet though, I'll have to watch this college season to evaluate. Three guys I would look at are Corey Webster, Antrel Rolle and Marlin Jackson. I might be missing someone but those are the three big names if I remember correctly. I'm not so sure about the WR, a lot of the good ones seemed to come out last year, I'm not really sold on Braylon Edwards, so Williams is the only guy I'd take high. I'm not really sure what kind of draft status he will have with his situation though. I don't think any of the TE are superstuds like Shockey either, IIRC Heath Miller is the top guy. There are some really intriguing players at linebacker that I would love to see. The big one is Derrick Johnson, that guy is just awesome, I really think he can be a guy in the Derrick Brooks mold. The two guys from Tennesee are intriguing too(Simon and Burnett). I guess part of it will depend on where they pick. If they win 4 or 5 like I believe their talent suggests, then they could pick between Webster, Rolle, Jackson, Johnson, and Eric Winston(tackle from Miami, would be pretty nice) or Alex Barron(Tackle from FSU) but if they pull a 7-9(which I again, highly doubt), who knows what will happen.

I really think getting a proven closer would be a great proactive move. There is the potential for some pretty good ones to be available, like Wagner and Hoffman(highly unlikely, but possible with a sizeable deal), or Guardado, plus the guys already mentioned. It's clear that they need another arm, so why not add a really good one instead of leaving Shingo closing and adding a lesser guy in the setup role?

I couple of Bears related predictions. Looking to see what everyone thinks about some of these topics. Feel free to add a few. 1) Number of Bears wins. I personally don't see them winning more than 4 or 5. Their schedule is pretty brutal. They're going to have a tough time with both Packers and Vikings games, and home versus Eagles and Colts, plus road against Cowboys, Bucs and Titans. The games at Jacksonville and home versus Washington aren't gimmes either. I think they got a decent shot in both Detroit games, versus the Titans, and at Giants(unless Warner comes back to MVP form). I think if they get some really good luck and a couple of players emerge, the best they are going to do is 8-8. 2) Number of rushing yards for Thomas Jones My guess he is going to be somewhere between 1000 and 1200. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, the 1000 is a gimme, but I don't think he can do much better than the top end. Their passing game will probably struggle at times, making it harder for him to gain a ton of yards, plus he has a history of occasional great games with several mediocre to poor games. I think he'll be a solid back, but I'm not ready to put him in the Pro Bowl. 3) Winner of the NFC North I gotta go with the Vikings. They have some pretty good weapons on offense and what I think will finally be a solid defense. I guess it just comes down to the fact that I have no faith in the Packer's D, and I really don't think Chicago and Detroit have much of a shot. 4) Major team needs that will be addressed either in FA or the draft They seem like they really need a left tackle(right if they move Tait). That position looks brutal. They also look like they are going to need another WR(Mike Williams would be interesting), and a proven outside linebacker. Another corner also looks like it would make sense, especially since Azumah is hurt and McQuarters is a little shaky. They also look a bit suspect at QB, tackle, and one of the end spots, but they have a few young players there already that will hopefully develop(although I would like to see a veteran backup QB). Thoughts?

Nope. You got to get a certain starting RB for TO, not someone in a committee type situation. My vote is you need to try to get one of those mid 2nd round type backs like Rudi Johnson, either Davis, or if you can, Dillon. Henry might be another good target, especially since you have McGahee. One of them is likely to emerge as a feature back at some point.

Um, last I checked they lost Scott Padgett, Omar Wilkes, and some guy who's name I can't pronounce or spell to transfer. That would be 3 players, one of which was the starting center.

I am as well, however something has really put a damper on that. Loren Howard has had problems with his ankles. From all accounts he will miss at least the TCU game, but the people I know at NU have said he might redshirt and miss the whole year.

I'm not sure how much of an effect some of that stuff would have on those guys. If anything I would think that giving them more money would make them happier and more productive, altough it is possible they would slack off and retire earlier. Free agency seems like it'd be the same for me, I would think they would welcome the opportunity to make more money and leave a bad situation(I imagine Williams would have loved to get out of Boston later in his career to get a ring). I'm not sure Ruth could slack off any more, he already supposedly played some games hungover/drunk. For the really great hitters specialty relief doesn't seem to have much of an effect. That whole lefty righty thing seems to be BS most of the time, and the manager just seems to use it to defend himself in bad situations. I really don't think seeing lefty relievers that in many cases shouldn't be on a roster would really affect Williams or Ruth. The pitches thing is interesting, but I would think they could adjust. There don't seem to be that many guys that can throw those pitches with great efficiency anyways, a lot of times it ends up looking like a slower fastball.

Sorry, I really don't want to add more players to the 12 we already have. It starts to dilute the talent to a point that it hurts the quality of the experience. As for the league, I'm 99% sure I'm not changing it at this point. It looks like I've heard from 5 different members(counting me, not sure about others with the different team and soxtalk names) saying it is fine, so it would take like 4 saying they can't make it for me to change the time.

Point number one is not neccesarily true. If you are already cheating by using steroids you can get around testing without much more difficulty, especially if you get advice from someone that knows what they are doing. There are still several types that can not be detected. Even if you use on of the ones that is, you can use in the offseason and cycle off before the season, since the MLB does not have random offseason testing. Even assuming that he stopped taking them(of course one would have to assume he used them, which seems to be the case), one can still feel the effects for some time after stopping, and he would still be benefitting from the increased body mass. As long as you don't screw up your dosage and cycling off(cough cough, Giambi), you can use them and benefit from them without any of the problems like withdrawal or positive tests. I really don't put Bonds in that list of greatest hitters ever. The whole steroids thing just really kills it. When you look at it, he was a very good but not outstanding hitter before his age 37 power surge. His career high was 46 before 2000, and even with the performance of his last few years his career batting average is still under .300. I'm sick of hearing about his .600 plus on base percentage too, that has little to do with his batting eye, and not a ton to do with his hitting ability. People make it sound like this alone makes him one of the best ever. It wouldn't be anywhere near that high if some of these pussies would pitch to him. He'd have a few more hits and homers, but the OBP would certainly drop because he would lose a ton of free bases. I'd love to see what guys like Ruth, Mays or Williams could do nowadays. When factoring in a much thinner group of pitching talent today(more starters used on more teams without the neccesary talent boost, plus more guys with suspect talent being used in the pen), not having to face spitballs and numerous other trick pitches, having the lower mound, being able to fly instead of take long train rides and the numerous other modern day ammenities for players, the opportunity to use steroids, someone eventually making Ruth get in better shape and stop drinking before games when he was younger, and Mays playing in a much smaller ball park(he played much of his career in a park that was 475 in the gaps and 480 to dead center), I think the numbers could be scary.

I'm posting here because it didn't seem like anyone was responding in the contests page. I throw this thread on the mercy of the adminstrators. To all league #2 participants- I am attempting to make a final decision on the draft time. As it is now, the time is set for Wednesday September 8th at 7:00 CST. I plan on leaving it at this time unless I hear different from a couple of league members. Please include a preferred time if this doesn't work. Just to warn you, I will probably not be able to do it this coming weekend. My schedule is busy but not necessarily set, so I don't want to deal with it then.

I honestly think that it remains to be seen what will happen with Maggs. I can't imagine anyone giving him the $12 mil a year for 4 or 5 years with his current situation, but who knows, maybe he'll make some progress with the injury before FA warms up. I'm think he's going to end up taking a 1 year deal with the Sox for $8-$10 mil, but I can't really say I'm going on anything but gut feeling on that. I really think whichever team signs him for that much will have a tough time selling a major contract like that to a guy with a knee injury, especially since Maggs isn't a big time name in most circles. If he does go, I think we really need to add a big time bat, because that is an awful lot of hitting prowess walking out the door. I'd really rather not keep going through this 14 runs one night none the next stuff. Our offense just can't consistenly produce, and I don't think Frank alone can change that.

A couple of comments about what I have been reading: Can we slow down the Omar Vizquel love fest a little? Yes he is having a good year, but he is 37, and his BA in the 3 years prior to this were .255, .275. and .245. I'd much rather get somone like Cabrera or Renteria(no Nomar, not for the kind of money he is demanding). Guzman, would be pretty hot too. I know money is an issue, but there are guys I'd much rather have. I would be very cautious with J.D. Drew. The guy has yet to play more than 135 games in a season(altough he might this year), and is going to demand a huge contract. He's beat his career high in runs, homers, and RBI already, which is some pretty convenient timing. Someone is going to give him 5 years and $60 mil, and I really thing they will regret it at some time, he's probably due for a broken ankle or something next year. Even assuming he is fairly healthy, he might come up with a .242 year like 99, or .252 like 02. You just never know with him. As for the Zito/Pavano question, there is a reason that Zito might be available. He was extremely inconsistent last year and is currently at a 4.55 ERA, which could jump a bit if he came to our park. Pavano seemed to figure things out late last year and has an ERA right around 3. Even if you add a full run to compensate for the league/park(that's probably way to high), he'd be around 4. Plus, we wouldn't have to give up any players in the deal. Moves I'd like to see- Renteria, Cabrera, or Guzman at SS would be huge. If we let Maggs walk, I think Cattlanato is the right guy in right, or Drew if Boras decides to wait forever with his client and ends up taking whatever offer he can(Rodriguez, Maddux). We need someone in the pen, I don't care who, just someone else who can get outs with regularity. With Garland failing miserably(he was pitching well last time I said we didn't need a starter), I think we need Pavano/Clement/Perez. I'd also like Koskie at 3rd, he's a pretty solid 3rd baseman that happens to be a lefty. I'd be very happy if a couple of those things happened(although the prospect of 2 former Twins is kind of :puke ).

I'm probably not the one who should respond to this(I'm not 100% sure), but I think that only applies for arbitration and getting the draft picks if we lose him(which we should probably do, interesting point). If he hits FA(very likely) we can sign him for whatever. I'm also not sure how incentives would fit into that. Ideally I'd like to see something like $8 mil base with the potential to pay him his $15 mil if he performs well(MVP type numbers, not just his .300 with 30 homers).

To follow up my NU rant(can you tell I'm a fan? ), here are my picks. ACC champ- Virgina(I like them, a lot of experience. Tough to pick against Miami though) Big East champ- West Virginia(brutal conference, WVU might be a good sleeper title game bet just because their schedule is so weak they might run the table) Big Ten champ- Michigan Big 12 champ- Oklahoma(they should definitely win regular season crown, but have a habit of losing in the Big 12 title game) Pac 10 Champ- USC SEC champ- LSU Bowl Games Orange- USC-Oklahoma Rose- Michigan- Cal Sugar- Texas-LSU Fiesta- Virgina- West Virginia Order of finish in Big Ten (I know it's a little wierd but bear with me) 1) Michigan 2) Iowa 3)Wisconsin 4) OSU (I could really see this as a 7-4 type year) 5) Purdue 6) NU 7) Minnesota 8) Penn State 9) MSU 10) Illinois 11) Indiana Heisman finalists- 1) Matt Leinhart 2) Cedric Benson 3) Jason White 4) David Greene Heisman sleepers- 1) Justin Vincent 2) Brad Smith

The publications never give NU credit ever. Even coming off of their Rose Bowl season in 94 I'm pretty sure they were picked to finish 5th. The one year they were picked really high(after the Alamo Bowl year) they had a lot of injuries and were horrible. The other years when they won or shared the title they were picked 9th or lower. I don't see why the publications put them so low. Even within the magazine, they say the should have a solid defense, a very good offensive line, and a good running game. The only question marks I ever see are passing game(that's a huge one) and pass defense(I don't understand that one as much, they have some pretty good players back there). This isn't that strong a year for the Big Ten, so I see no reason that they should be below 8 in most people's picks. Illinois and Indiana have some major flaws, Michigan State is replacing an awful lot of starters, Penn State has some talent but hasn't put much together in a while, Minnesota has a great running game and not much else. Purdue should score a lot but has a lot of questions on D. Even teams like OSU and Wisconsin have some major holes. The only teams I really think will make major noise in the Big Ten are Iowa(monster D but need some people to step up on offense) and Michigan. I think this might be one of those years where NU comes out of nowhere and steals a share of the title. They have a tough schedule though and really need to fix the passing game issues. I'm gonna have to look at what kind of odds for winning the conference in Vegas, I kind of like that bet as a longshot.

I have a lot of fun with the fantasy drafts. It's kind of fun trying to get a solid all around roster(harder than it seems, especially with the computer taking all the corners, ends, tackles, QB and WR early. I usually end up with weak 3rd WR, one weak end, okay CBs, and David Carr at quarterback but pretty good everywhere else), and it gives me a chance to get some guys I really like(Clinton Portis, Kendrell Bell, Terell Suggs) on the Bears without giving up my entire team. It gets kind of boring after you get your team though, I got a team with Vick and Portis and I just can't be stopped. I'm gonna try a franchise with the Bears normal team soon I think. I'd be more happy about it but I am not a big fan of their playbook.

I really don't know what to think about Maggs' situation yet. At the price he was originally asking I was sure he'd be gone, but his injury situation seems to have clouded things a bit. I highly doubt too many teams are going to invest major money in this situation. He had a season ending injury that may or may not be a degenerative thing. Look at how Vlad's back slowed down negotiations last year. He basically only got offers from Baltimore and the Angels at roughly what Maggs was originally asking for, and Vlad is younger, better, and came back to play that year after the injury. While Kenny saying that can't have helped things, I still think there is a possibility that Maggs is back at a reduced price. If Maggs doesn't receive any other major offers, I could see us offering a decent($8 mil) deal with some large incentive clauses, especially since the fact that he came through their organization seems to be a factor. However, I think any decent sized deal and we let him go and come up with some more media spin, while pouring the money saved into more pitching. In the end I think we will just have to wait and see what happens. This has a major effect on what could be an interesting offseason for the Sox.

I really don't think the original trade proposed would have any chance. Look at the trade that the Marlins made before the deadline. They traded Brad Penny, a pitcher who I believe is arbitration eligible at the end of the year and plays a position they are loaded at for Guillermo Mota AND Paul LoDuca. While I realize teams are more likely to give up a ton of pitching, this seems to give an idea of what a solid reliever that is a non closer is worth. The Dodgers had to give up their starting catcher(and a good one at that) and a stud reliever(better than Marte) to get what in a perfect world when everyone is healthy would be the Marlin's 4th starter. Pierre is an everday player who is a bigger part of their plans and has been doing well, and is not prohibitively expensive right now(I'm not 100% sure about his contract situation). You'd probably need to knock them out with a collection of young major league ready players, which we can't really give them right now(although if we threw in BMac and Anderson that might be intriguing for them, wouldn't make much sense for us then). As for the money aspect, it doesn't seem like Pierre's money is that big of a deal right now. Beckett, Burnett, Willis, and Cabrera are not going to be eligible for FA for a while. They have to worry about Pavano, Benitez, and I believe Lowell sooner, and I could easily see all of them going. They let Lee and Rodriguez and Urbina go because they were all going to get over $6 mil, which is a much bigger problem for them.