ptatc

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Also I asked Justin Wolfers about the negative wage growth and this was his response: "One month down [doesn't] mean much. Over the past year, wages have grown, and wage growth is outpacing price growth " i.e. real wages are up this year, so don't sweat january. Thanks for the info. It's not really something that important. It was just a topic of discussion we had and when I saw the posted information, it picqued my interest.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 12:05 PM) I have a hard time believing that the US is seeing white collar jobs move out. Move out to where? The US financially has done much better than most countries globally. Places like China are taking away blue collar jobs by paying their workers sums less for same work. A loss in wage growth could mean the jobs created are paying workers less money to do same work prior. It's unlikely a loss in wage growth would be coming from the "white collar" jobs. Also, it's not like Illinois is alone in rise in tuition. To whom are the peer universities you are comparing to? In this situation it's more with the flagship institutions for the state. U of I is becoming so cost prohibitive that many of the students are going to Iowa, Indiana and Purdue because even though it's out of state, it's cheaper than Illinois. Universities track them and most of them stay away from Illinois afterward. This is the driving force this past year to lower the scores for admission but more importantly financial aid for resident students.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 11:23 AM) That's nominal wage growth and its not helpful to draw assumptions without knowing what's happening with real wages. Thanks. What would be the difference and is there a place to find the info? It is a topic of discussion at the university as it sure seems that the cost of education in Illinois is driving the college student out of Illinois and they aren't returning. This is just Illinois but it also grows into the topic for the US.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 08:30 AM) 292k jobs, last two months revised upwards by 50k, unemployment holds steady at 5.0% (more people returning to the job market?), but wages dipped 0.01. Would this indicate that the added jobs were more "blue collar" jobs while more "white collar" jobs are moving out? With more jobs but less pay especially with the new minimum wages, it would seem that the US is losing higher paying positions. Or is this an incorrect assumption on my part.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) How does anyone possibly know whether that last sentence is true or not...? That's the problem, this whole thread is conjecture, right? What do we know factually that 100% can't be debated? Only if the White Sox can get one of them signed somehow? Sure, it makes sense if each player only has a couple of options to choose from...but that's quite difficult to believe. Only going by media reports and the fact that whatever teams are involved are obviously not trying to outbid one another if upton is possibly going to take a 1 year deal. Usually if many teams are involved a bidding war starts. This hasnt happend as the offers are going down not up. More teams could get involved now that the price is going down not up.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 11:01 AM) I don't think it's necessarily a good thing. 1 year deals may bring a lot of teams out of the woodwork and pay them at a price we can't afford. It's a really smart move by upton's agent, I don't think he actually will go 1 year but it's a way to create some bidding of services. I would rather lose out on the players than be stuck in a 6 year deal with them, especially cespedes. I think it works out well. If upton signs a one year deal, whatis the market for cespedes, who is probably RHs target.

QUOTE (peppers312 @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 09:54 AM) Jeff Passan is reporting that Upton might be willing to take a 1 year deal. so he could be right. does that mean he would fall into Hahn's plan of not giving any of there FA OF'ers more than 3 years? Everyone was so pissed at RH for sticking to his plan of no deals longer then 3 years and convinced that the sox had no chance. Now the agents are going to the other extrme .RH is going to try to work the giving up a pick angle to bring the offer up from 1 year to suit the team better. It may not work but RH is really working the market well with few teams involved.

QUOTE (black jack @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 06:00 AM) It's like watching Edwin Jackson pitch. Steve Trachsel pitching or Carlton Fisk hit?

Patton Star wars iv Stripes Indiana jones Monty python and the holy grail Casablanca

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 07:18 PM) If you're Cespedes, and you're getting the same offer from the White Sox and Nationals...where would you go? You can play in the nation's capital with one of the two true superstars in the game on what everyone considers a playoff contender versus a White Sox team that's somewhere between 3rd (optimistic) and last (pessimistic) right now out of a 5 team division. You're also even more confident in the NL East than the AL, where you now have a proven track record and just put up near MVP numbers. You've also got two "dead in water" franchises in the Braves and Phillies to pick apart offensively. The White Sox would probably have to overpay by at least 5% to get it done, if not 10%. Same thing with returning to the Tigers...unless the draw of being paired with Abreu is truly that enticing. NASCAR

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 05:57 PM) I'm not worried about STL either. All indications say they are sticking with what they have which allows them money to add players during the season if needed. This could be PR bulls*** but for some reason I believe it. So I think we're looking at the Sox, Nat's, O's and possibly the Angels competing for Cespedes and Upton. With Harper and Werth at the corners and taylor in CF the Nats have bigger issues than the OF. I don't think they are real serious contenders here. I really think the hold up is that it's really the O's and Sox being the big competitors. The O's are waiting on Davis, a fan favorite. The sox are staying with the 3 year offer and no players wants that yet. No one is offering the big deal right now.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 07:20 PM) I haven't looked into this in detail (as I'm not yet eligible for any deferred comp, but something I will consider in time as a way to potentially manage taxes + another potential option to stagger for long-term future in regards to helping kids with college), that said, my understanding from a high level read I did of my companies policy lead me to believe what you mention above is true. Not sure how it works in terms of government employees though. I'm curious what happened for some of the counties in the country that have BK'd (if deferred comp was lost). Is their someone within the state who you could discuss with in more detail? Found out today that the deferred money does go into a 457 account. So they handle it differently than true "deferred" money. It was a relief with the situation of the state budget.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 03:48 PM) or maybe it's because they don't want to tie up 20-25% of their payroll on an inconsistent player coming off a career year (Cespedes) or a player that many scouts question their passion for the game (Upton) Ding, Ding Ding!

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 03:33 PM) Well, if true, makes 0 sense. Sure it does. If any of the OF had substantially better offers, they would have taken them. They hold their ground on the deal until someone offers more. Then they can raise it ,if needed.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 01:24 PM) At a glance, the only difference in his productivity is that he simply started hitting homers. The only thing I can see in his peripherals is that he's swinging at more pitches -- both good and bad -- than he did at the beginning of his career. So to become a better hitter he became less patient and stopped trying to go the other way. He's becoming more of just a pull hitter.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 11:50 AM) You didn't hear California and Nevada fell into the ocean as a result of a 17 point earthquake that lasted 13 minutes? Jeez... Where have all you people been? ps: PTATC! I have to fly to Anaheim to present a paper in February. Dang airlines must be covering up the quake to keep my money!!!! Edit: it's as good as any of these other speculations/theories these past pages.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) I mentioned new guys next year- Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Vlad Guerrero. Guess I should have included Jorge Posada too, but I hope he falls off quick. Omar Vizquel is going to be an interesting case in a few years. He has so much support for whatever reason. Posada will be around for awhile due to the yankee championship ties.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 11:29 AM) Rumor has it that his assistant actually signed for him as a result of forgetting said pin. Assistant rumored to be fired. Replacement may be sought. Source: a 1,257 pound tuna caught off the coast of Utah. Salt Lake tuna? At least it is well preserved.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 10:53 AM) But, due to the fact he did agree to come back, there's at least a 50% chance they exercise it as long as he's still productive. The likelihood of that happening in KC is much higher than with any other team. It will be strictly due to "if he is still productive" and if he is it may be worth it. Regardless, it is not a "5 year 91 million dollar deal" for the royals.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 10:44 AM) Ken Griffey Jr. is “the second-best left-handed hitting, left-handed throwing outfielder ever born in Donora, Pennsylvania on November 21.” What a great article. I love those "relating eras" pieces.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 10:15 AM) Lol. The Royals gave Gordon $91 at five years. No. The 5th year is a mutual option. They can leave at 4. The 5th is not guaranteed.

QUOTE (zenryan @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 08:29 AM) One of the big Bucs writers and local radio host here in Tampa is saying Lovie was never asked to change his staff. It has to be about not wanting to lose Koetter. Sounds like Koetter was going to get a HC job somewhere and the Bucs don't want to lose that relationship between him and Winston. Maybe Mike Smith as his DC. The is an article on bleacher report suggesting part of the move was because the defense has stars on it yet has been regressing every year. It suggested that they believe the cover 2 is dated and he wouldn't change.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 08:30 AM) Are you still in the camp that really believes we're getting Cespedes or Upton? I'll ask this. Other than maybe 2005-2007, when has the White Sox payroll expanded 10-15% over two consecutive seasons...in this case, losing seasons where the team profits were low or marginal compared to that time period? 2009, when we added Peavy and Rios, we were coming off a playoff appearance. 2011, we were coming off a season where we led the division for a large chunk of time. The only other time would have to have been 2013-2014 with Abreu (and then last offseason), but I'm pretty sure overall payroll decreased significantly despite that addition as we shed a lot of payroll throughout a disappointing 2013. NASCAR

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 07:20 PM) I haven't looked into this in detail (as I'm not yet eligible for any deferred comp, but something I will consider in time as a way to potentially manage taxes + another potential option to stagger for long-term future in regards to helping kids with college), that said, my understanding from a high level read I did of my companies policy lead me to believe what you mention above is true. Not sure how it works in terms of government employees though. I'm curious what happened for some of the counties in the country that have BK'd (if deferred comp was lost). Is their someone within the state who you could discuss with in more detail? I'm going to do that once the semester gets going again. I was curious if anyone here knew.

Here is something I came across while thinking about investing more. We were looking at increasing 401K vs. deferred income. I read that deferred income is not guaranteed. It is a promise to pay in the future. however, if the company declares bankruptcy they can just say there is no money to pay it. My questions is: did I interpret this correctly and being a state employee how would this apply to a government agency. Any help wold be appreciated. With two kids getting close to college, we were thinking the deferred income may help with decreasing FAFSA income assests.