Balta1701

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 03:54 PM) Eh, the parties unite behind their candidates when it becomes obvious. When the choice is not an ideal candidate versus the party candidate, the coffers open up. I think the Obama 2008 campaign made pretty clear how "The coffers open up" can be different for one candidate versus another. The Clinton campaign wouldn't have been able to be anywhere near his online fundraising levels.

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Link I like how "Breaking tetrahydrogestrinone's record" is a reachable incentive.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 10:39 AM) Now, I know that the other reason why Iowa is so popular, is that its cheap advertising. The TV and Newspaper ad buys are cheaper in say, Des Moines then they would be in LA, New York, Chicago, Miami, etc. So the candidates without as much $ in the bank, can still buy ad space there. However, in todays new media age, I don't think that matters as much as it did say 20 years ago. Of course, there's a real downside here also...if you have a candidate who is struggling with fundraising who wins Iowa and uses that as a key path to a nomination...you still have a candidate who struggled with fundraising, and that's a bad thing for any party right now, since money is everything.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 01:54 PM) If Reed is really the best closer prospect in baseball than, you can't really fault Kenny for the Santos trade. I understand why you'd be open to trading him, but even if he's just a setup man on this squad, you need to get a stellar return to move him right now, and I still don't see us having gotten that.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 02:48 PM) Rangers, Texas. Even without CJ Wilson. They might move Neftali Feliz to the rotation, they didn't have space for Ogando in the post-season rotation. Feldman gives them a lot of insurance, and they're still not quite done answering the LAAofAC. Seriously, that team ought to be calling us and offering us a ton for this "Paul Konerko" character.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 12:34 PM) Depends on how you define successful, I mean let's say they win the division and exit after 1st round? That'd be stellar. I'd be thrilled.

Success! 7 blood donations in one calendar year. Both the theoretical maximum and a personal best. W00t.

Teams can try to rebuild while having several terrible contracts. See: the current Astros. Whether what were doing will work better than the slow complete overhaul, only time will tell.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 12:19 PM) Every year we assume every other teams players are a fluke and that our players will play to their averages. I'm pretty sure calling the Tigers a powerhouse means assuming substantial improvement from multiple guys on their roster and no step backward from a guy who gave up a .240 babip.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 09:23 PM) I disliked the Walker and Mitchell picks both were pathectic reaches. You had a better idea for last year's sandwich round?

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 09:14 PM) This team has had a good pitching staff for the last 3 years and we have just one division title to show for it. Technically, over the last 3 years, 0 division titles to show for it.

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Michael Redd signs with the Suns. Good place for him, that's proven to be one excellent medical staff.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 11:24 AM) How about that blatant travel by Wade on his game-winning shot last night?

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 02:10 PM) The big thing is that Peavy comes off of the books after 2012. $6 million from Pierzynski as well.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 01:41 PM) Ok ima take a break cuz typing on a phone is hard but gimme better options than iowa first and i'll try and poke holes in 'em later No, this is wrong. You don't just get to poke holes in other states, you have to demonstrate why a certain state is always 100% the best...and you have to do so without alluding to anything like "better-informed voters", because that is the sort of thing which is a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can make effectively the same case for Iowa that you could make for any small state. There's no logical reason why your vote in Iowa should count more than mine. If "1 state" always needs to lead off, then it should rotate.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 01:29 PM) The question is would they have dropped as dramatically elsewhere? We cant say. Actually, we can say quite well, by comparing national polls with polls of Iowa, which basically show the exact same thing. Mittens hanging at about 20% throughout the campaign. Bachmann first getting a small bump, then a large Perry bump lasting a month or two, then the Cain bump (which has been filtered out by the fact he dropped out), then the Gingrich bump. And in fact, they're very close to in sync, suggesting strongly that Iowa has done nothing but follow the national trend.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 01:29 PM) But we also cant have some sort of random rotating system where one year mississippi or alabama is first. Why?

And if Ron Paul and Rick Santorum score solid finishes next week, we can go one step further and say that Iowa not only has no special predictive ability compared to the rest of the country, but in fact they're such an unrepresentative minority that they are willing and able to select completely unqualified candidates in their caucuses.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 01:22 PM) Wait what? How'd you get that from that? Perry f***ed up debates and his Iowa poll numbers plummeted as well. I'm not saying debates dont matter obviously they do. But I think regardless of the debates he was still just the flavor of the week for a while and when iowans realized he didnt know jack s*** they jumped ship. He tried to win them back with folksiness and radical commercials and iowans didnt bite. Alabamians would have But he also collapsed nationally at the same time. Thus, you've perfectly demonstrated how Iowa has absolutely no special predictive ability compared to the rest of the country.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 01:19 PM) My thoughts exactly. I actually don't agree with that, and I think there's a role for "retail campaigning" in a campaign...I just think that it's crap that Iowa and New Hampshire are the only ones because of a historical accident in the past 30 years.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 29, 2011 -> 01:10 PM) Im not suggesting otherwise, just that he thought he could get away with being charming and likeable above all else. So in other words, retail campaigning of the sort that you tell us is important in Iowa would work well for Rick Perry, but his campaign imploded because of his inability to cut it on a national stage. One might conclude from this that the sort of retail campaigning done in Iowa is effectively worthless in evaluating a candidate's ability to succeed on a national stage, and is in fact counterproductive. Instead, a candidate should face much larger, national level tests during the primary phase, since that is the type of test that will be required in the general election.