Balta1701

Keep it up UT

QUOTE (SHIPPS @ Feb 27, 2010 -> 12:23 PM) Balta seriously...are we about to have an epic world disaster? I will have to go down my bucket list quickly today... (Checks the Cubs offseason moves) Carlos Silva Marlon Byrd Xavier Nady No.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Feb 27, 2010 -> 09:55 AM) Hey Balta, any chance the Haiti earthquake had anything to do with this? Absolutely zero. These things simply happen. The Haiti one wasn't, on magnitude, all that large. This one is particularly large. But there hasn't been anything this large since Sumatra in 2005. Ones this large happen every 5-10 years or so. Ones as large as Haiti happen 10x+ per year. There was one in Southern Japan the other day that was as large as Haiti, but no one really cared about it because it was a rural area and it didn't hurt that many people. What has happened over the last 30-40 years to make these disastrous ones seem more common is the proliferation of population, often in rural areas. Especially since population tends to follow water sources...which tend to follow fault lines, so you wind up with more events that are killing a lot of people than you had 30-40 years ago.

This one was probably large enough to set off the Earth's normal mode vibrations, meaning the whole planet is probably going to be ringing like a bell for the next few days.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 27, 2010 -> 09:10 AM) If you're the GM of the Padres, would you go after unproven players like Flowers, Hudson, Danks, Mitchell and Viciedo? Frankly, yeah, I would. The teams that are going to be after him are going to be competitive teams, right? How many of them are going to willingly give up a "proven" player, someone who is already contributing to that team?

Take care, Hilo

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 04:44 PM) MVP.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 02:50 PM) Yep. It will be no time at all before he starts getting benched again. He had 20 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and was +9 in that game against UT in 30 minutes. Shot 6/8 from the field, 8/9 from the line.

QUOTE (Jenks Heat @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 01:46 PM) Guillen said yesterday that he would be with the Sox as long as Reinsdorf is the owner. The line of questioning had to do with Reinsdorf more with Guillen's appreciation for Reinsdorf than retiring or anything. It would be interesting to see how much money Guillen has made as a player and how much as a manager. As a player, $23.492 million.

Has KW ever pushed someone up hard to make him look like better trade bait? I can think of the opposite done with pitchers (Gio, Carter), held back so their stats stayed up.

So, considering how hard the banks lobby against any requirements that they increase capital or decrease leverage amounts in good times, and how successful they are...and how the same banks that nearly blew up in 2008 are even more over-leveraged now, why shouldn't I panic?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 10:40 AM) AIG collapsed in great part due to CDS's, but its not for the reasons you seem to think. No one bullied AIG into a corner. Because they based the CDS rates on the assumption that the housing market wouldn't go down and that Lehman would never go under. Basically, your argument is that no one would be crazy enough to under-estimate the risk of a Greek default and thus no one would ever sell off ridiculous values of CDS insurance contracts at rates that were low enough for some firm to play this game. Except...we already know that AIG was doing exactly that. So you're basically arguing that no other bank would make the same silly mistake that AIG made. Except...because of the pay structure that incentivizes short term gains with no penalty for long term losses, if I was working for a company with a AAA rating selling these CDS contracts, I could make a killing by doing exactly that, planting additional CDS bombs and leaving someone else to foot the bill if one of them goes off.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 10:15 AM) I despise the Hoosiers, but I think the fan base needs to be a little patient with Crean. I'd give him at least 5 years to make them a good program again. Any hint of talent left that team after the Sampson debacle, so he's relying on low rated players and walk-ons to compete. He needs to get recruits in, and those recruits need to play for 2-3 years before there's any reasonable expectation that they'll become a decent team. I guess if he's still one of the bottom 3 in the league, then you might question the hire, but really so long as he's in the 8-5 range I think you have to be ok with it for another season or two. I'm more than willing to be patient with Crean and so far I haven't been disappointed with what I've seen. He's had what, 1, 1.5 recruiting classes in so far, and he's gotten good people to come in with them, correct? Didn't IU's best player go down with an injury already this year? He's gotten really good performances out of a young, weak team, and made himself look like a quality coach. I can live with that for now.

In a move likely to help the Dems hold the spot, reportedly Governor Patterson of NY will end his election campaign.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:51 AM) The way that Danks has been talked about by the organization, I wouldn't be surprised if he was at AAA. Mitchell is no where close to that level of a finished product from what the reports say. I'd be very surprised if they put him in AAA to start the season. (Not based on any inside knowledge, just based on where he was last year).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:48 AM) And to me, that is the biggest indicator that he will NOT start off in Bham. Mitchell is far from a finished product, and could use the 1000 ABs of a couple+ minor league seasons. IF they want to keep both him and D2: the Mighty Danks playing CF, then he has to start off at A-Ball unless they're bumping D2: the Mighty Danks up to AAA.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:44 AM) The question for me with Daniel Cabrera is does he have a release clause if he does not make the team? Anyone know? Every source I'm reading calls his deal a minor league contract.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:30 AM) What? I didn't say anything was impossible. I don't understand where you are getting this. And you have some whacked out numbers there. No one makes 20% off corporate debt - that's like payday loan type rates. But secondly, I think you misunderstand what a swap is. Its not a lottery ticket. You don't get a 200% profit. If you call the debt, you get the face value of the debt, and no further cash flows (if you were getting any to begin with) from the debt instrument (if you even held it). I made those numbers up fully at random just to make the point. I think you're missing the one key point of those swaps, at least as how they ran in the U.S. market. It didn't matter how much actual debt there was, you could keep taking them out; that's the gambling aspect, and that's where I came up with the 200%. So, if someone (say Lehman or Greece) has x amount of dollars out in debt, you could cheaply take out insurance that would pay off 10x the amount of debt that you'd actually insured. You take out CDS insurance 10x on $1 billion in Lehman debt, and if Lehman goes under, AIG the Federal government pays out $10 billion. Thus, if the person signing the other side of the CDS contract bases the cost of that CDS deal on the risk of default but doesn't take into account the fact that the person buying the contract suddenly has a large incentive to see that the debt does go into default, there's a possibility for a large profit by causing that default. (Note, I'm also not saying this is certainly happening, although its been suggested for the other companies. But with the ability to take out CDS contracts for several times the value of the debt, the possibility is there).

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:17 AM) Third, the idea that an incentive is created for debt failures is stupid on its face. How is GS going to "burn down the house" here? If Greece makes its obligations, there is nothing to be done. Further, WHY would GS want Greece to fail so miserably? They don't, by the way. They are playing at the volatility, and insuring themselves, because Greece is a customer of theirs. That is the real story here. There have been arguments that what you say here is impossible is exactly what happened in the case of the runs on indymac, Bear, and Lehman. They got themselves into high-debt positions, but it was also set up through the CDS market that their principle lenders could make a large amount of money if they went under and defaulted on their debt, so those people who held the debt of those companies had incentive to basically freeze their lending to the in-debt firms and then use their research arms to question their stability, making sure that no one else would lend them short-term dollars and pushing them under. If I can make a 20% profit on them paying off their debt, but I can make a 200% profit by buying up CDS insurance contracts that will pay the full value several times over if the debtor defaults, that's why they would want (fill in the blank) to fail. (Then of course, you've also sold off the debt to others but held the CDS contracts, so you don't lose money if they go under but you make money if the CDS contracts pay off...that's the AIG game)

Contract extension talks between the Rays and Carl Crawford have broken down (never really made sense anyway). If the Rays fall out of the race, he's going to be available.

It's not the greatest list ever (They have a lot of guys who are gone still listed as Sox, trades don't seem to have registered with them), but come on, you know you want to look at the top 2000 prospects for 2010

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:07 AM) Stephen Curry looks like he will be a superstar in about a year. The sheer amount of young talent in the NBA is ridiculous now. What a waste it would be to lose a year of play for all these young guys in the league. I'm not sure it'll be a year, but it'll at least be 1/2 a year.

So, more seriously, I think the whole key to that article is this concept... Do you dispute that? If so, I'd like to hear why, it's not clear to me from your initial response.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:02 AM) What the heck does what I said have to do with a political party? You voted in the last election and it wasn't straight-ticket Ron Paul supporters.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 12:58 AM) They probably would have been safest off trading that pick in all seriousness. Who in the world would have thought that the Grizz would have anything other than a rebuilding outlook for the next 3 years coming into this season though?