Balta1701

Just to put specific, comparable numbers on things...if we assume that the numbers are correct and it takes a market cap of $120 billion-ish for the government's investment in GM to turn a modest profit, and we expect a P/E ratio of ~15 (reasonable based on the graphs posted above, bubble-time sales could potentially beat that) GM would need a year profit of $8 billion a year as a car company to produce that level of market cap. Is that unreasonable for a car company? This version of GM perhaps, although as shown above those numbers were not unreasonable for GM 5 years go. How does that compare to the dominator, Toyota? Well, as recently as 2007, Toyota was pulling in profit of $5.7 billion a quarter. In other words, with reasonable numbers, for the government to get a return on its investment in GM, the company needs to get itself to a position where it is as profitable in a full year as Toyota was in a period of about 4 months at the peak of the market.

QUOTE (hogan873 @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 12:42 PM) If JD would improve his attitude and accept the fact that he could be quite useful as a DH, I'd welcome him back. But he seems bent on playing in the field. I don't know that he's going to get many offers. If people are constantly willing to offer Damon >$6 million, I'd be fairly confident that people have made offers of at least half that amount to JD, but they're just holding out for something better.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 11:26 AM) The sad thing is that the best hope for GM is happening now with the problems Toyota is having, and they are totally unequipped to respond to it right now. 2nd best hope. The best hope is, IMO, the Volt. Yeah, there are a fair number of issues to getting back to it. The key question though is...why did GM lose its ground in market share to Toyota? The real answer is the type of vehicles they chose to make, and no matter how much people try to blame "Legacy costs", the reality is that GM wasn't making the type of cars people wanted to buy, in terms of the variety of car, the fuel efficiency, and the quality.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 10:58 AM) It is proven fact that GM would have to have a record mkt cap in order for the gov't to make a profit. Yes. 100% true. However, if you adjust for inflation, the story changes a lot.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 10:57 AM) Probably not the 2/20 that they were looking for in November when Boras was saying he was more valuable than Jeter. Heyman is saying in the $6-$7 million range.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 10:54 AM) So we still have 2 to 3.5 million years woth to release? Actually, there's enough CO2 sitting in fossil fuels to push us back up to the levels that we last saw 45 million years ago within the next 90 years easily, if we keep burning at current rates.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 10:52 AM) and why would that be CK? Because he doesn't like adjusting for inflation is my guess.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 10:46 AM) Well we know they cannot sell their interest in GM for a profit because GM would have to have an all time high mkt cap in order for that to come to fruition, and methinks if it didn't happen in the boom years for GM, it will not happen now. Unless we get the CBO to do their analysys and maybe the WH budget office to give their take, then we'll probably make $50 billion on the deal. Or you bother adjusting for inflation. Since this is the Dem thread, I'm allowed to quote a blog for the math and demand that instead of attacking the source as a lazy pajamas wearing blogger you actually tell me where the math is incorrect. Just to back up that data, here's what GM's profits looked like 10-15 years ago. On the order of $5 billion/year in 1990's dollars.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 10, 2010 -> 05:47 PM) In order for this to really happen, the military has to lose belief in the clerics. Has there been any signs of that actually happening? Its either that or someone like the CIA has to give massive amounts of support to very specific people in Iran, and I just can't see that happening right now. Although it's hard to figure out what press reports are reliable, I think every indication today is that the security forces and the military are strongly standing by the government.

The Dean of the Washington Press Corps, the guy who supposedly defines mainstream thought in the media, is in love.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 02:00 AM) There's hope for this year's team. I'm not excited about the rotating DH, but there doesn't appear to be a wide, gaping hole in the lineup. Either that or I'm just bored. My worry is that there's 4-5 different guys who could possibly turn into wide, gaping holes just by being slightly worse than last year, or even the same as last year. The DH spot, Quentin, Rios, Teahen, April/May version of Ramirez.

If the Bulls need backups, they'll also be in a position next offseason to spend the MLE dollars on grabbing those. Or they could do sign+trade deals involving Miller or others. How sweet would it be if the Bulls were able to move TT, Salmons, and Hinrich, without taking on cap space next year? That'd be 2 full max deals they could legitimately offer even if the cap plummets, in addition to having the MLE, sign and trade options, Rose, Noah, and Deng.

I for one can't wait to see the Tribune's "Lilly watch"

Really enjoyed Human Target last night, and got the added bonus of the Cigarette Smoking Man making an appearance.

QUOTE (Tex @ Feb 11, 2010 -> 06:53 AM) What does geography have to do with it? It turns out that since the south tends to be on average poorer than the north and the west coast, most of the southern, Republican voting states receive more from the government in taxes than they send in ($1.10 to $1.60 on the dollar) while Northern and Pacific Coast states wind up sending in more than they receive ($.70 to $.90 on the dollar). The underlying causes I won't comment on with this post, but the data is pretty simple.

Really Kap? You feel like you have the right to lecture us about the tone of things?

You know the sad thing? You guys scream about how terrible it is that taxes go up, that the government takes over everything, and you never bother thinking what the end result of the climate change we're talking about is going to be. What do you think is going to happen if a corn crop fails? Or if water becomes more scarce out west? Or if the sea genuinely encroaches on people's land. Who is going to wind up paying for all that? Who's going to be making the decisions about who gets to keep their house and who has to move? Who's going to wind up paying for the things we say are coming? Rebuilding New Orleans, that evil government didn't spend any of our tax dollars on that, right? Hell, guess who's butting in on snow removal in D.C.? FEMA! That evil, expansionist Demycrat government you guys are so scared of, that health care bill you're so terrified of is going to be nothing compared to how much the government is going to wind up controlling people's lives and taxing you silly to try to mitigate the effects of what we say is coming.

Really, the sheer willingness not only to be ignorant but to hold it up as something that makes you better than everyone else that we get in your posts...it's somewhat remarkable.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Feb 10, 2010 -> 10:05 PM) 3.0 to 4.5 million years ago, something happened. In 10 years, the same thing that took thousands of years will happen, and we will all DIE~~~~~~D That's hilarity and instanity for you. It used to take thousands of years for CO2 contents to move by the amounts that we've moved it in 3 decades.

QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 10, 2010 -> 10:06 PM) Did you have that written on your hand? And a reminder that he has an opposable thumb.

You know what I find to drive some mix of hilarity and insanity? ONe of the reasons for the weather pattern stuck in the SE US is that this is an El Nino year, and because of that, we're getting this moist current of air surging up from the Caribbean over and over again. The thing I want to note is...one entirely plausible outcome of dumping a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere is actually pushing the earth into a permanent El Nino state. It's something that has happened before, that's what conditions were possibly like about 3-4.5 million years ago before the last decrease in CO2 contents started the ice-age cycle. In other words...its entirely possible that because of this El Nino year, it's unusually snowy in D.C. Therefore, we don't do anything on Climate Change this year, 10 years pass again with the Republicans in Congress and CO2 keeps going up, we wind up locking ourselves into a permanent El Nino state where this level of snow suddenly becomes the norm along the entire East Coast, with even more moisture in the air to drive it. Aside from having a good portion of D.C. under water, somehow fitting...and sad.

This is how dumb our discourse is. That's right, our government officials can not tell the difference between temperature and precipitation.

Damn, I meant to put that in the finance thread. Phooey. Seriously, did in fact break my brain i Guess.

This is really a fascinating graph. Inflation adjusted defense spending.

The Japanese have invented a robot that eats snow and craps out bricks of ice.