I have no idea what Scott Boras's side will do, and that might be exactly what he signs for, and there's a half dozen major factors in play over the next 3 months that will influence the final number...but if I were Carlos Rodon, that's the one contract structure I wouldn't sign.
If I am signing a multi-year guaranteed deal, I'd want to get into Wheeler's range before I started thinking about that. If the CBA doesn't demolish them, I can't see how that's a terrible gamble for a team like the Yankees, they've spent way worse than that on pitching the last couple years anyway. At least Rodon has TOR ceiling. Remember with Wheeler specifically, people were talking about $75-$80 million as being fair for him late in the previous season, and then the actual FA market was way higher.
If I can't get into that range, I'll try to sign something like a Bauer deal, with a big salary in one season and quick ways out right afterwards.