If there's ever any time when doing this won't create a jinx, it's after a 3 game sweep of the Cubs, before a series with Minnesota, and with a 10+ game lead over the division. If things get tighter, will close this thread and open one for the division. This will also be significantly more fun than the draft position trackers, and I will like having all this in one place.
The playoff seeding rules are:
Seeds 1, 2, and 3 in each league go to the 3 division winners. Team 4 is determined by a 1-game playoff between the 4th and 5th teams, held at the ballpark of the #4 seed. Additional one game playoffs, if necessary, are used to determine:
a.) the division champion if 2 teams have the same record
b.) the second wild card if 2 teams have the same record
Aside from those play-in scenarios, the rules for seeding and home field advantage are as follows:
In the Division Series, home field advantage goes to the 1 and 2 seeds. In the League Championship Series, home field advantage goes to the team which had the better record, unless that team is a wild card seed - the wild card seed cannot have home field advantage in the LCS. In the World Series, home field advantage goes to the team with the best record - regardless of whether or not they are a wild card team.
The tiebreakers for seeding:
1. Head to head record
2. Record against your own division
3. Interleague Record
4. The team with the best record in the 2nd half of the season, excluding interleague games
5. The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, excluding interleague games. Continue counting backwards/adding games until one team has a better record.
Current seeding AL
1. Tampa Bay 75-47
2. Houston 71-50 3.5 GB
3. CHICAGO 70-51 5 GB
WC1: Yankees 70 52 5 gb in division
WC2: Oakland 69-53 2.5 gb in division
Last team out: Boston Red Sox 69-54 0.5 gb in Wild Card
Current seeding NL:
1. San Francisco 78-43
2. Milwaukee 74-48 4.5 gb
3. Atlanta Braves 65-56 13 GB
WC1: LA Dodgers 76-46 2.5 gb in division
WC2: SD Padres 67-56 12 gb in division
Last team out: Cincinnati Reds 65-57, 1.5 GB in wild card
Other notes: Philadelphia is 4 games behind Atlanta, NY Mets are 5 behind Atlanta.
Updated 8/20/21
These teams hold the tiebreaker over the White Sox based on head to head records:
Houston
Milwaukee
NY Yankees
White Sox hold tiebreaker over these teams based on head to head records:
Tampa Bay*
Oakland*
* = upcoming series. To be determined: Boston.
Records in division play for teams where it might matter:
Tampa Bay 39-18
Chicago White Sox 37-25 4.5 gb
Boston 34-26 6.5 gb
Oakland A's 29-26 9 gb
NL team records in division play:
San Francisco 36-18 0 gb
Cincinnati Reds: 35-20 1.5 gb
LA Dodgers 32-20 3 gb
San Diego Padres 28-26 8 gb
Atlanta Braves 36-28 5 gb
Philadelphia Phillies 34-27 5 gb
NY Mets: They're also below .500 against their division
As of now, the White Sox have lost the tiebreakers against the NY Yankees, Houston, and Milwaukee, and thus would be on the road against either of those teams if they finished with the same record, and as of this post all 3 teams have the exact same record. Upcoming series against Oakland, Boston, Tampa Bay could matter for tiebreakers. Winning a series against Boston, winning a series against Tampa Bay would clinch those tiebreakers for the White Sox, winning 2 more games against Oakland would clinch that tiebreaker.
White Sox need to make up ground to avoid going to San Francisco in a potential World Series matchup. White Sox are also behind Cincinnati, San Francisco for the division record tiebreakers and are 0.5 games ahead of the Dodgers, so winning games against the AL Central down the stretch could also be very important for a World Series tiebreaker.
OK, what did I screw up? And, anyone who wants to update any part of this as the season goes on, please feel free to do so, just adding the league records and gb would be nice.
References:
https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/majorleaguerules.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_tie-breaking_procedures
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoffs-home-field-matchups-explained-c256992372