Balta1701

Without even looking at his game logs, how much do you want to bet that his 14 starts are due to them regularly using an opener for him and allowing him to throw 5-6 innings on those days, so that he was basically a regular starting pitcher for 2/3 of the season - just not recording starts because of the opener?

"Well, TJS was inevitable with him if he hurt himself in the minors. At least we get it out of the way without blowing a full year of control on him by having him get hurt in the big leagues this year".

Personally I think it's the opposite. He'll throw something like 60 innings this year because they'll want to use him as a high leverage reliever, and if the 2021 season happens we'll be at the same spot - "He only threw 65 innings last year so he can't handle a Starter's innings, but he can make our bullpen better right now so let's keep him there". Or, worse, he'll throw 65 innings this year, then a strike will knock out half the 2022 season, and after 2023 he'll be in his arb years as a reliever having never stretched out his arm.

No he didn't. In 2010 he pitched ~ 103 innings in college, then 33 for the White Sox. Then he pitched 71 innings as a reliever in 2011 - 1 season there. In 2012 he was back as a starter - and was injured within the first month. He was 1 year away from that 100 inning year, and even then it was borderline.

Actually this is false, because he also pitched about 40 innings in each of 2009 and 2010 in the Cape Cod league. https://www.capecodbaseball.org/news/season/index.html?article_id=1374

Chris Sale also went down with elbow soreness early in 2012 and had to turn over a table screaming at KW in order to be allowed back into the rotation after they publicly declared he would permanently be a reliever.

If he was starting in the minors, he wouldn't pitch a full season anyway. This is the White Sox's version of "this is one way we're all in - it just doesn't cost money, so we're going to do it".

If they expect Cease to be that bad then they should have done something more about rotation depth.

They worked him there a little bit but I really get the impression it’s just not going to end well if they try long term.

Do I get to take ownership into account? Because the Texans ownership and FO is like looking at the Bulls FO last year. Caserio's got a good background, and I have zero confidence in him given how that situation evolved. *Oh, and the Texans also have no 2nd round pick in 2021.

If their payroll limit is under $130 million this year, they already have $125ish committed next year counting Giolito as an arbitration case. A Lynn extension is extra risky in that context. “Sure we extended Lynn, but now we have to trade Kelley and Keuchel to clear that salary.”

Even if they were working, they weren't throwing 100 full effort pitches to big leaguers every 5 days. I think that increased number of pitching injuries this year is precisely what should be expected as people try to get back to normal.

Not my point. In my estimation, a guy who I would have had good confidence could get to 200 innings, like Lynn or Giolito, has a far higher risk of not getting to that level because of the shortened 2020 season. Arms that were used to that number of innings had an extra 3 month break last year. If they push towards 200 innings, they may instead have a more severe dead arm period or a higher chance of injury than they would otherwise. If a workhorse like Lynn pitches 125 innings and then suddenly has to miss a few weeks with something being sore...you just can't be surprised this year. They may get to 200 innings, but you cannot be surprised by injury this year. You can't simply say 'that's bad luck", it's something you need to plan for if you want to compete. For this reason, rotation depth that you have confidence in is extra important in 2021.

I have to disagree partially with the bolded. I would fully agree with that statement if last year had been a normal year. However, 200 innings is a massive innings boost for both of those players. Giolito threw 72 innings last year, Lance Lynn threw 84. I would say it is possible for Giolito and Lynn to be around the 200 inning mark this year...but with those huge jumps in innings, it would be entirely reasonable if they didn't.

Prior to the suite of injuries, I would have said perfectly healthy he could be a 2-3 win pitcher. He was in 2016. But since the injuries piled up, I don't know that he still can be that. If he's coming in as a starter with a 92 mph fastball like the last 2 years, rather than a 94 mph fastball, who knows.

I'm in with "I have absolutely no idea what is reasonable for this guy as I haven't seen anything of him playing baseball in 12 months".

He has also never been a "good pitcher" for any stretch longer than 12 games or so, and that was the description of him before all the injuries. When he came out with his best stuff, he would be able to dominate. He could then get by a handful of games on luck - giving up a lot of baserunners, but gets bailed out enough to keep the team in it. But he couldn't sustain that. His stretches of dominance were too short, and games where he struggled were common enough that he could never sustain being a "good pitcher".

I still think the biggest impediment is the cap drop. I could see the Bears being all about a Watson deal and going all-in with like their 1-2 picks in the next 3 drafts all given up for him, and it might even work out. But I just can't see how a team can start off $10 million over the cap and be able to add a $16.4 million cap hit for Watson...While Also having to worry about Robinson. If they had $10 million in cap space, they could probably maneuver around to make that happen, but to pull of Watson, Robinson, and get under the cap they would have to clear what, $40 million?

No. It may still work out. But no.

Dude, if Revenue is going up at 5% a year, and all salaries are going up on average by 2% per year, everything you just said could be true, and it would still be patently unfair to the employees. (This statement, interestingly, applies to much of the economy).

Well, do you consider the 2006 Cardinals to have ruined baseball? They won the World Series after going 83-78 in the regular season. Is the difference between 83 wins and 82 the difference between a "Valid birth" and a "Random Crapshoot"?

That will last through what, 3 Rodon outings/losses?

On minor league deals? Great bring in 5.

Eh, he might only be angry at Passan while sober.