Balta1701

Because it’s going to the owners pocket. I get complaints about the Rate. It is poorly designed and a huge handout to Reinsdorf. The deal is terrible and he got it with no real benefit to the city because the city was scared to lose the team for pride reasons. Do not do deals like that. I would rather they move to Nashville than do that again. Here, the city gets something valuable, this is an urban renewal project. Not just a handout. This makes the city better.

I’d go with blind luck being a more likely factor. Last year the Sox were worse than the Royals. Worse talent, worse run differential, more than 5 fewer WAR. However, the Sox had a better record, because sometimes that’s how it goes in baseball, the Royals more dramatically underperformed than the White Sox when they should have been like 5 games better. A team with a 65 win talent level will sometimes win 58, and sometimes win 71.

First of all, I would like you to tell me how I’m being too optimistic. I’m pretty sure I’m the one describing the environmental rehab issues and costs - this is why the state must be involved. Secondly, the state spends money on lots of things. Eventually, whether with the White Sox or not, the state is going to have to spend money on this site. No developer anywhere will expect to be on the hook for previous environmental damage, if the state expects them to pay that, the site will never be developed. And importantly, failing to develop this site is spending money - on police, maintenance of the site, no tax revenue from here, and lower land values and fewer businesses in the area. This spot is currently generating zero sales tax. It is a strong benefit to the state to find a tenant here who can develop and anchor this property, and in the current market for office space that will be super tough. Getting this developed now is an investment, one that will pay off if the right business is out there, but which has significant costs and revenue losses every year where it isn’t done. Third, are you really ready to discuss soil quality issues with a geologist? Yes, they will be trucking in fill to this site because the land level Is too low and they have to ensure stability next to the river. While a problem for a ballpark, this would be a bigger problem for office or apartment development as high rises increase the pressure on the soil, while low intensity development isn’t going to have enough money available to justify rebuilding the site. All The issues with water you mention are also true for any type of development, and they are likely to prevent any other type of developer from salvaging this property for decades just as they have for the last 60. These reasons are why a ballpark on this land makes good sense, and why government support is well justified. Lets imagine a worst case scenario, they plan this and the infrastructure issues then our worse than expected. First, that would affect any business going into this spot, so in both cases public money would be required to fix the issues. Second, how many developers can survive multi year project delays? If I was building an office tower, I have revenue projections to meet - a multi year delay may bankrupt me. The single worst thing that could happen here for the state is they spend hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure and cleanup and the developer loses their funding because of delays, so the state will have spent their money with no benefit. This however is almost impossible for the white Sox, because if site issues delay the project for years, they just play a couple extra seasons on 35th street. From a public perspective, that is amazing insurance for the site - my main tenant and developer will not go bankrupt if there are delays! There are always details to be worked out. A real estate business has a right to turn a profit on their investment. I will not begrudge the Reinsdorf group turning a substantial profit if they pull this project off. A project that makes them money and makes the city a better place is a true win for everyone. Hell put a hotel there and I will stay in it. But it also should be a good deal for the city - in the long run the benefits they get in taxes and development should be able to win out, on the 20 or 30 year horizon. That’s how much money the city should put in - this is an investment to grow the city and its tax base long term. If Reinsdorf can pull that off, then he has done something great for the city while also making money, and my version of capitalism likes that type of partnership.

The whole "Environmental remediation" bill? Or the whole ballpark bill. I believe you have a strong case for the state (small s so including all governments) absorbing a large portion of the environmental costs and nearly all the risks of cost overruns for the environmental issues in an urban renewal sense, because that's a lot of money and risk for any developer to deal with and if the state doesn't step in and deal with that, this site may well be undeveloped for another 60 years. I very much agree that with the potential economic benefits of developing this site, if the White Sox are going to buy the land and develop the whole property, they should pay a large portion of the ballpark expenses. But first of all...bringing this site up to code is a cost that almost certainly should be born by the state because the White Sox likely had very little to do with this becoming polluted and abandoned. Furthermore, the state is justified in paying at least a portion of the initial development costs - not a majority, but a minority portion. Why? Because it is to the state's benefit to have this site developed long-term. Leaving this land outside the tax base for the next 50 years is not an exaggeration - it's already been that way for more than 60. Bringing this land back into the tax base, even if it is 30 years from now, is a good thing for the city. Developing this site supports the land values around this site, and supports the city as a whole. These are all good things for the city and for taxpayers, and it justifies some portion of additional taxpayer support of the ballpark. Not a majority, a partnership though, with either assistance developing the site or appropriate tax benefits. Unlike true frauds like the Foxconn "plant" in Wisconsin or even New Comiskey, public subsidies here is likely to actually lead to development and to an overall improvement of the city and state. That's a big benefit of having the White Sox involved - the chances of the White Sox deciding that they don't need to play baseball in the USA are quite low, the chances of the White Sox deciding to stop playing baseball if the commercial office market space shrinks is low. This is a benefit to the city of working with this specific industry type on developing the location, the city is going to get the ballpark developed if they come to an agreement, the White Sox won't back out and decide that they are ok playing in a small ballpark overseas for the next 30 years. The White Sox anchor this site and that ensures the site is actually developed, improving the city, improving the tax base long term, and removing a blighted spot that is a negative for the city. There is a solid justification for some public funds here, for both remediation and for making sure the site gets developed. It does not pay for a full ballpark, but support well beyond "only paying for infrastructure" is well justified as a public good.

What about environmental remediation and site preparation?

And that's why they immediately started talking about how they were going to "Win soon".

I wonder which of the guys they might try out in the bullpen. I could see Paxton being a guy you might gamble on a season there if you don't need him as a starter in April - he was still throwing 95+ last year, could he get that up to 96-97 in one inning outings?

Clearly on the free agent front you're going to have a lot of movement before March as, following the Fangraphs list, just under half of the top 50 free agents are currently available! For guys like Montgomery and Snell, there are going to be people making choices they don't want. Either the players will have to take what is offered, or they will have to take short term deals, or maybe some team steps up and makes an offer they otherwise didn't want to make. There will be a lot of that going on. But in terms of trades, the high number of players available means that some guys will come cheaper than expected on the free agent market. That continues to make big value trades unlikely to happen. The hope was someone would get desperate once the big free agent pitchers signed, but the big free agent pitchers aren't signed and no one appears desperate to do so.

Clearly someone thought he was MLB starting pitcher material since he was drafted in the top 15 and that wasn't an obvious overdraft.

Daniel Jones will be making $46 million this year and $41 million next year. The Dead Cap would be $70 million to cut him next year and $22 million the following year (they moved the cap hits into Y3 and Y4, so they will have to pay those if he's cut). Overall, he's going to average $43.5 million in money over the first 2 years of that deal and they will have more than $80 million in cap space used for him. All I'm saying is $25-$30 million is likely seriously underestimating what it would take to extend him.

I don't know this for sure, but I think there's a pretty strong case to be made to do it for both sides. If you're convinced that "moderate damage is very likely to lead to the surgery", and you find a guy who has moderate damage to the point of elbow soreness, getting it done would be the quickest way to get the guy back. If you wait 6 months, and the guy needs the surgery anyway, you have wasted 6 months or more of the guy's career and delayed his rehab by 6 months or more. This could cost the team use of a pre-arbitration player, and could cost the player performance before they hit free agency.

Just like it's almost impossible to get ZiPS to show a 100 win projection (except for the Dodgers), it's similarly almost impossible to get any of these projection systems to show a 60 win or worse team. The teams at the top and bottom typically scatter more than the projection systems show.

FWIW, I think there's a very good chance the Dodgers are using the opposite perspective. I think if guys show evidence of damage they are defaulting towards getting the surgery done. I can't think of a single pitcher they've tried to "Rest" after showing evidence of a partial elbow tear, can anyone?

In terms of public funds for this - note how different this would be compared to what Vegas is doing or what Tampa Bay is doing. Those areas are paying to keep a team there, maybe not in an ideal spot, because they want to use it as a way to make their city seem important. This is also why the state spent money on the White Sox's park 30 years ago, and why the City paid to renovate Soldier Field. These are the projects that are big money losers for cities. If Chicago did this exact project with the White Sox, it is fundamentally different. This is an urban renewal project. This area is blighted, it has been undeveloped for more than 50 years. Between this site, the rail yard, and the river, it creates a large area of the city that is unwalkable and a barrier to high density development. It is also basically paying no tax to the city, it probably creates costs to police it, and it will be a drag on the surrounding neighborhoods. If the city were to find a tenant to develop this area, it might take more than 20 years to recoup any funds they invest, but if the city could turn this into a developed area - they can think about returns in the 50 to 100 year horizon. Furthermore, developing this site will allow denser development around it. Removing the blighted area in this spot will increase land values nearby and lead to the potential for significant development in this area and moving farther outwards. That's all true for literally any tenant here, which is why the city would likely put up some significant money for any development in this area. However, there have been several attempts to develop this region, all of which, so far, have completely failed. Other developers have different risks - the office market is currently pretty weak following COVID, so if the most recent developer was planning to add significant office space here, there's likely no funds available for that right now. For the city, the benefit of doing this with the White Sox is - the White Sox, as a baseball team, are likely to still exist in 30 years. Their funding situation and ability to raise funds is different from a business relying on other real estate markets. If they can get the White Sox on board as a key tenant here, and the city puts up some money, they will actually get the site developed. The White Sox aren't likely to cease to exist in 2027. This isn't a real estate developer announcing the project and then hoping to get funds lined up once they show interest from enough businesses. The White Sox building a high quality park here that draws 25,000 a night 81 times a year should also lead to additional business around the area. It won't take long before someone opens "Big Hurt Bar" across the street, hell I'd do that if I could. Add a hotel on the site, and you've now taken a blighted, undeveloped area and turned it into a center of activity and development in the city. The city should not pay the entire project, the White Sox should be putting up a significant amount of money as well. However, note the difference between rebuilding Soldier Field or building New Comiskey. In those cases, they were just spending money to keep the named thing in the city. Soldier field kept the Bears in the city, but spurred likely very little new development. New Comiskey gave Reinsdorf his parking lots, but I don't think there's any businesses in the area that rely on or cater to the White Sox. Hell, I think "Jimbo's bar" was the spot they showed on TV during the last game of the 05 World Series and that closed a couple years later. When the new ballpark was built at 35th street, people arrived on the highway or rails, went to the game, and left - it supported basically no other business. A walkable stadium, with businesses nearby, a hotel and other development on the site, with transit options as the main way to bring people in - this supports the entire area. It is possible they can't make this work, the two sides will need to agree on how much money each side is going to put in and that will always be complex. But this is fundamentally different from just building a new park to avoid losing the franchise - this is a redevelopment project. Any developer on this site would expect a significant contribution from the city to bring it back to the tax base, and the White Sox offer substantial benefits compared to your average developer. It is to the taxpayer's benefit to come up with an agreement and get this done.

I think the cost of the environment remediation could be significant but not enough to derail anything. The other part of this is that they would have an agreement about who would absorb the cost overruns on remediation should there be any. That probably mostly goes to the city. Also, what are the chances Jimmy Hoffa is buried here?

“False start, everyone but the center.”

Nelson Agholor is still in the league?

Naw, this kind of park will be fancy enough that it should get an actual legit business to sponsor it. This really should happen, it’s exactly what you do to build a great modern ballpark. Pretty much everyone wins. I’m not sure why we had to endure public talk of Nashville before this got put out!

It was ordinary. Hot dogs and burgers and stuff. Also comparatively expensive, next to a highway fast food stop. There’s a lot more interesting dining options at ballparks these days. Also I’m now over 21 and craft beer is a thing. And if you had upper deck seats you were terrified to stand up to get anything.

Give me a legitimate destination, walkable with lots of things to do nearby, attached to and a part of the city, with transit options. Watch me make a special trip there in like 10 years, stay 4 nights in the hotel on site, dine in the area, catch a whole series, drop what $3k depending on the seats? I’m already up for this. Also something involving deep dish. Slight contrast with our usual stop at the Skyway Oasis McDonalds on the way there when I was young, because nothing else in the area other than parking lots and 90s ballpark food.

Also this guy. Im told Leury’s batting cage work was good enough that we will see him hitting third.