Balta1701

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 12:41 PM) I don't know how you come up with that. If trading draft picks were allowed, I think a lot of people would trade a future 2nd, and future 3rd for Melky and Robertson. You are whining that what they could have received for Samardzija is light years ahead of a pick that is better than a 2nd or 3rd both in position and money it allows you to mess with. For ine thing, you would have to prove what was offered for Shark, which I have seen through the hundreds of posts b****ing about this, you have offered zero. I don't like Samrdzija, and never did. But if the offer, again which you have never shown, doesn't blow a top 30-35 pick away, keeping him made a lot of sense unless . Show us the offers, then keep complaining. You are basing your complaining on your imagination, not fact. Rather than complete the impossible challenge which requires reading minds, I'm going to again turn it back your way. If the White Sox couldn't get value back for him at the deadline that was a lot better than a single sandwich pick, then the rest of the league was even more skeptical about him after his 1st half performance than I was, and back in June I was saying his dropping K-rate was a serious, "don't extend me!" red flag. And as I quote above...I was ok with giving up a draft pick for Cabrera. My own words were that "I don't care nearly as much about the draft pick as I do about his terrible 2013 season". If he performed like a tolerable player then giving up the draft pick is nothing. It was the 3rd round, that's basically nothing. The worry was whether he'd be a tolerable player or whether his good seasons were something he couldn't repeat.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 11:19 AM) If Danks is our #3, good luck winning more than 72-74 games. So?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 11:24 AM) This is false. The current CBA makes it more than a lottery ticket. It's a financial allotment. All winter, and past that really, you complained about losing picks due to signing Cabrera/Robertson and how it was going to set the organization back. Now when there is a potential compensation available, a pick that is more valuable than the 2nd/3rd picks lost, then the QO comp is basically worthless. There is no consistency in your thought process, just consistency in the complaining. You're like a politician who banks off of people's short term memories and flip flops to suit your agenda. Your agenda: b****ing about this organization like they owe you something. I've got some good archived ones on this one. Melky Cabrera signing thread: QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 12:58 AM) The draft pick doesn't worry me nearly as much as his Terrible, nearly Viciedo bad 2013. As far as I can tell I don't mention the draft in the Robertson signing thread. Here's a few from the Samardzija trade thread: Re: Ervin Santana or Jon Lester: Re: Shields instead of Samardzija: Samardzija thread, Nov. 29: Early in samardzija thread: From the thread where we were talking about extending Samardzija: QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) IMO, a "comp pick" is now at the point of being dramatically overrated, at least here. If you give me the choice between a comp pick and a guy at AA putting up moderately good but not spectacular numbers and ask me which one is more likely to be a big leaguer/put up >1 WAR in their career, I'll absolutely 100% say the AA guy. Something like 50% of the guys in those rounds look weak by the time they're even in the lower minors and never improve. Another big chunk is lost at the jump to AA. Then there are some who get injured. Only a fraction of comp picks ever get to the point that Ravelo or Phegley got to. Then there are guys like Phegley who get a callup and fall flat. Teams are able to stack the deck somewhat by the fact that the MLB draft has so many rounds. If you have 19 picks after the first round, and they vary from having 10% chances to make the bigs down to 1% chances in round 20, you've got a good chance to pull a big leaguer out of those rounds every year and if you're good at it or lucky maybe more than one, but adding in an extra pick with a tiny chance of making the bigs doesn't change that. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 01:53 PM) Just to stress a point...saying "People are dramatically overrating the value of a comp pick" is not equal to saying that was a bad move. That is instead to point out that a comp pick has very poor value compared with, for example, keeping the pitcher around, and if we walk away with only a comp pick that's like finding a quarter on the sidewalk. Nice, but not likely to make a long term difference in your life. They made the trade because they wanted him this year and were willing to spend a heckuva lot more than I thought they would be to do it. The comp pick shouldn't even enter into that discussion, you made the trade because you wanted that player more than the other guys. Similarly, it should barely register on the list of things you care about whether you're deciding to sign him long term. What should matter for that is how he performs, whether he's worth the contract, whether we can afford it, and whether we're still looking to spend this level/be competitive for the next few years. The comp pick is negligible compared to that. That sounds a whole lot like me in this thread. The one you will find me caring about is the 2014 "Draft pick countdown thread" where we were watching the record of the team, because I really don't like giving away 1st round picks. I can't get Google to pull that link up because I don't remember the title, but in there you can find me asking them to keep track of where we are relative to the 10th pick because I didn't want to lose a 1st rounder. Outside the 1st round, I think people are way-overvaluing the picks.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 06:44 PM) Thanks for the response. I figure an extension is crucial if they want to lock him up very long term, as I don't see the Sox outbidding teams like the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs/Etc if he hit the open market. I'm hoping that Sale would give the Sox a "hometown discount", but who knows if he actually would. I'd guess that Sale wouldn't have any good reason to give a "Hometown discount" when he's looking at a $250 million deal or something like that...at least not a big enough one that it wouldn't still be "enormous amount of money over a decade". What you might be able to get away with, if you're willing to put $200 million+ on the table, is getting him signed long term after 2017 or 2018 before he hits FA, and getting at least a non-zero discount that way.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 08:34 AM) Haven't you b****ed about losing the second and third round picks in this past draft? The comp pick will be better. If it is as worthless as you claim, this dream of your about building through the draft makes zero sense. You complain from both sides. It apparently is your hobby. So based on your strong endorsement of this pick you think that signing Robertson and Cabrera was a clear mistake right? Because the priority must be accumulating draft picks? Otherwise you're doing the same thing you accuse me of. What I would say, and have said from the start, is that the draft pick is a poor exchange for a player. If you've got a guy already at AAA who looks to have a shot at the big leagues, reasonable age for that level, that's worth more to me than a sandwich pick. I'll take a first round pick over a generic AAA player unless they look really solid, but a sandwich pick is worth less than that. It shouldn't go into your calculation of "do we trade this group of players for a pitcher near free agency" because even if it works out it won't impact your roster for another year. It should barely register on your radar for making a deadline deal, because if you can't get better value than that at the deadline then the rest of the league wants nothing to do with that player. It's nice, if you're accumulating a bunch of them it can help your roster in a few years, and it's the kind of thing you should try to accumulate more of if you're going through a 3-4 year rebuilding process. Somehow I don't think you're going to endorse doing that.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 09:31 AM) On the flip side you treat this pick like its a piece of s*** that you want no part of. It's a lottery ticket and hopefully you find someone that can develop rather quickly and become a contributor. And save me the story about how you don't trust the people making the pick. I know Actually the guys doing the picks have done pretty darn well with the pitching lately, but that doesn't make it less than a lottery ticket.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 05:40 PM) 2 exremely different markets, also he was on a roll, as was the team, unless you blow that comp pick away, it makes little sense to give in. The reports were the offers were like for Leake. I really don't know why the guy or guys they could have ultimately traded him for are sure all stars, amd the comp pick will peak in Winston Salem, but if that is how you choose to look at everything, we have a different idea of entertainment. How many people in this thread treat the comp pick as the next sure fire Spencer Adams? I think it's 100% fair to be down on it and to point out that there's a good chance whoever the comp pick is, if there even is one, will never do as much as Adams has already done and to keep pointing that out. The average fWAR of comp picks, as pointed out in this thread, over their career, is 2, meaning probably more than 1/2 of them produce less than that. I would take a guy established at AAA over an unnamed comp pick almost any time. And that doesn't even factor in the fact that a guy at AAA or AA can help us within a year or two while a comp pick won't even be in our system until next year and could take 5 years to get to the bigs, if that even happens. So if you're looking for those, it's nice, but it's a long-term rebuilding asset, not something that helps in the near future. And if the team was so on a roll that you believed in them enough after 7 wins against 2 of the worse teams in the AL, then you should have added something to the roster to help it. Then again, the old lesson of "You're never as good as you look when you're on a roll and you're never as bad as you look when your'e in your worst slump" seems to be another of those lessons our FO has failed to learn.

QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 05:22 PM) IIRC Doughty's and Winston's cases never even got to a grand jury. This to me means that there is enough evidence against Kane to charge, but this friend hasn't been cooperating. This is a way to get her to cooperate and be a witness against Kane. If it works this could be Kane's nail in the coffin in terms of actually charging him for the rape. Why would the friend not cooperate with her friend in supporting her story of what happened that night? That's not much of a friend if their testimony has to be compelled, at least to me. If someone had hurt a friend of mine and I was asked by police to testify to what I'd seen I don't think I'd need to be subpoenaed to tell them what I'd seen. If it were standard procedure fine, give me the document and I'll tell you that anyway. OTOH, if I see one of my friends do something and then lie about it later, such that my testimony disagrees with my friend's claim, that would seem to me to be a case where it is much more likely that my testimony under oath would need to be compelled with a subpoena. Again, I don't know that, it could be standard procedure in these cases to compel testimony for whatever reason, but the latter makes more sense to me than the former.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 05:19 PM) Sale's current contract runs through 2019 with team option years for 2018 and 2019. Barring something catastrophic, those options will surely be picked up. However, after that, he is a free agent. My question is if you guys think that the Sox would pay him $200 million or whatever he'd want or if he'd leave and go elsewhere? It's a tough question, I know, but I'm just wondering what the Sox would do in that situation. I was thinking about it earlier today, and I was interested in knowing what you guys would think. He'd definitely go elsewhere if the White Sox did not make him a fair contract extension offer worth several hundred million dollars, assuming no major injuries. Whether the White Sox can offer him something that keeps him from hitting the market before the end of the 2019 season I don't know and won't guess. They'll be looking at a new TV contract in 2019, so if people are watching they'll have the money to afford him...but whether they'll be locked into other contracts or simply still not competitive is something I can't guess.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 04:21 PM) On the Democratic front, I saw an interview with Florina by Chris Matthews in which he was appalled Florina callled Hilary a liar. "I just find it amazing you would take this stance. If you have a debate with her as the Republican candidate would you just say you don't believe anything she says?" Listen, Chris ... she is a f***ing liar. She has lied about this email thing. Lies have been documented. Why in the hell is she our next president?? She's a confirmed liar. If this was a Republican, he'd be out of the race by now. The media would force him out over lying about the emails. Why oh why does the media have it their mission to make Hillary president? They should be on the Hillary payroll. You can't deny there's a double standard. Any Republican with documented lies??? Would be OUT of the race. I'm actually going to enjoy this. "If Israel attacks Iran … we’re supposed to be on Iran’s side." "We’re the most highly taxed nation in the world." "We have 93 million people out of work. They look for jobs, they give up, and all of a sudden, statistically, they're considered employed." "The Mexican government ... they send the bad ones over." The number of illegal immigrants in the United States is "30 million, it could be 34 million." Under President Barack Obama, income levels and unemployment numbers "are worse now than just about ever" for African-Americans. The five Guantanamo detainees swapped for Bowe Bergdahl "are right now back on the battlefield." Says John McCain "has done nothing to help the vets." "If you're from Syria and you're a Christian, you cannot come into this country" as a refugee. "You know, the sanctuary cities, do you know he had five of them in Florida while he was governor? Can you believe this? I didn't know that." "the $5 billion website for Obamacare, which never worked. Still doesn't work." "The Mexican government forces many bad people into our country." I write a book called The Art of the Deal, the No. 1 selling business book of all time, at least I think, but I’m pretty sure it is. "Even our nuclear arsenal doesn't work. It came out recently they have equipment that is 30 years old. They don't know if it worked." "The last quarter, it was just announced, our gross domestic product … was below zero. Who ever heard of this? It's never below zero." Says President Barack Obama’s recent New York fundraising trip "cost between $25 million and $50 million." Says President Obama's "grandmother in Kenya said he was born in Kenya and she was there and witnessed the birth." "The people that went to school with (Barack Obama), they never saw him, they don't know who he is." And that doesn't even add in his BS where he straight up lied to your face and didn't care on this one: "In 2011, when Trump was a voluble “birther” — you remember: Obama supposedly was not born in the United States, hence he is an illegitimate president — an interviewer asked if he had people “searching in Hawaii” for facts. “Absolutely,” Trump said. “They can’t believe what they’re finding.” He lies to you constantly and you don't care because his lies are mean things about people who look different and that's ok.

QUOTE (JohnCangelosi @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 04:41 PM) The only question that matters now is would we have gotten more for him at the deadline than what we will get with the comp pick?? Discuss. If we couldn't get more for him than the value of a comp pick then it's extremely unlikely he's going to get even Edwin Jackson money because that would mean every other team saw the red flags and the collapse coming & wouldn't give up anything useful for him.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 04:06 PM) Even 3/45 might look nice to the Shark camp. Don't you think he'llmgrt some $15Mper offers? I do not know. There are a multitude of pitchers a lot better than him on this market who have no draft pick compensation attached to them. They'll get sucked up first, as will guys like Buehrle who will have draft pick compensation attached but who have performed better. That's going to eat up a lot of the money on the market. Samardzija's hope, IMO, is that some team fails to satisfy their pitching need with the early guys and has money left over in late January. There is precedent for that - see Shields's deal last year. Either that, or he should be the first one to sign a contract and not wait once someone offers him something.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 04:04 PM) I will bet you $1000 Samardzija declines the QO. I would not take that bet. I would say it is a more narrow case than Jackson and if I were Samardzija's agent I'd at least have him worried. I will stand by my prediction that he goes unsigned until the draft pick comp expires. I can live with being surprised and wrong on that one. That's one we've seen happen before so I'd immediately say it's more likely.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 03:43 PM) The great Theo Epstein gave Edwin Jackson $52 million. Samardzija is not going to accept the QO, it's nice fodder for the doomsdayers who like to think the Sox are screwed no matter what they do, but it's a virtual lock they have an additional pick and slot money next June. Jackson was coming off a season with a 4.03 ERA and a 3.85 FIP in 190 innings when he was given that contract. His K-rate in the final year of his previous deal (2012) was also better than it was in 2011, so you didn't have an obvious signal of concern that he's about to fall off a cliff like you might think you have with Samardzija's K-rate. Edwin Jackson significantly outperformed Samardzija in his walk year.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 03:16 PM) I think Fulmer's ceiling is around a #2 starter. I think Rodon's is a workhorse version of Chris Sale. Stats wise, Fulmer's fastball comes in harder than Sonny Gray's when he was drafted per scouting reports and Fulmer's numbers at Vandy are better than Sonny Gray's were. Both have generally similar knocks of being undersized and their motions are even somewhat similar. Fulmer's ceiling I see as comparable to Sonny Gray, who is in the top 5 in the Cy Young race in the AL this year. Whether he will make that ceiling I don't know, but you asked that standard.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 02:08 PM) Rodon was one of the closest things you will ever find to a major league ready college arm. Hell, the Sox could have called him up on the day he signed as a closer. I don't think Fulmer is there at all. I also don't think he has anywhere close to the ceiling that Rodon has. I am not saying that Fulmer isn't good, but Rodon has a special type of ceiling. FWIW, I think you're's significantly underrating Fulmer here. Both Fulmer and Rodon have seriously dominant stuff, mid 90's fastball for Fulmer paired with power curveball in the mid 80s, both of them needed to work on a changeup as a 3rd pitch, Fulmer probably has a more violent motion than Rodon but that also makes him possibly harder for the hitter to pick up. Their senior year, Fulmer actually pitched more innings than Rodon, had a worse walk rate (2.8 per nine compared to 3.5) but Fulmer had a better K rate and gave up fewer hits per inning. Hell, Fulmer threw 30 more innings than Rodon and gave up fewer hits overall. Given the choice between the two yes, you take the lefty, but both of them are showing some absolutely dominant numbers and skills, and if you like K rates and shutting down hitters, Fulmer wins those stats.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 02:53 PM) Suppose the he accepts the QO. What would his status be at the end of next season? The online text of the CBA includes no prohibition on offering him another qualifying offer next year. There are no specific rules for 2nd year qualifying offers, meaning Jeff Samardzija would be treated like any other player on a 1 year contract. He could be offered an additional qualifying offer at the end of the 2016 season if so desired. That qualifying offer would return a 2017 supplemental round draft pick if it was declined or it would probably be worth about $17 million, give or take, for the 2017 season. If he were coming off another season like this one, he'd just keep accepting that QO and you'd keep overpaying him for crappy performance. If he were better, he'd probably actually get a solid contract that year.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:59 PM) Well yeah, most draft picks fail, but we're comparing the value of the supplemental pick to a random team's #8-10 ranked prospect. I'll take the former, unless it's the #8 ranked prospect in a loaded system. For reference, Spencer was already a "really how did we get that guy in round 2" guy when drafted and he came in at #5 in the Futuresox 2014 midseason list.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:53 PM) Absolutely. Dudes fall in the draft though. You know that. Not completely unrealistic to get a top 20 player in the early 30s. Sox could potentially add 3 bats in the top 50 or so. Even though I don't like that draft philosophy. yes they could, but I'd note that a weak return is much more likely. When i did a quick back of the envelope count of recent comp round picks, about 50% made the big leagues within 5 years and about 10% were on their way to all star games. I still think that's a fair statement of value. it's much better than nothing, but I'd still much rather have a guy putting up decent stats in AAA than a sandwich pick. I'd rather have a single guy like TT or Saladino than a Sandwich pick. That's how far away they are from the bigs.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:48 PM) Would it be more likely to see Fulmer taking Danks' spot next year if we were contending or not contending? I have no idea.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:48 PM) I think Barnum was their most recent comp round pick. The pick will be higher than where Spencer Adams was actually taken though. It's a very valuable selection. True, forgot Barnum. My bad. Yes, this is higher than where Adams was actually taken, but Adams is already looking better than most 2nd round picks at this stage of their careers. Adams is already unusual.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:25 PM) Is Fulmer as major-league ready as Rodon was? Unless we kick Danks to the bullpen or trade EJ/Q there's really no room for him in the rotation next year. No need to rush him, let him take over Danks' spot when his contract is up next season. Fulmer was thought to be maybe a tiny step behind where Rodon was. I could totally see him in the bigs next year and I could totally see him taking Danks's spot at some point during the year. I'd also agree with "not rushing him" but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him starting at AAA next year and moving up rapidly.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:35 PM) The friend of the victim is going to be interviewed before they decide to press charges or not Would it be normal to have to issue a subpoena/compel testimony from a witness in a case like this? Generally that seems weird to me, I'd figure they'd just normally ask a witness to speak to the investigators, but I'm not certain how things go in this type of case.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:12 PM) Meh, I'd glad we kept him instead of trading him for a team's top 10 prospect, especially if it was a team with a farm system that isn't that deep. The supplemental pick could give us another guy like Spencer Adams, who is far better than a team's #10 prospect. On the other hand, it could also give us a result such as Keenyn Walker, the White Sox most recent comp round pick.

Danks has been solid against the Royals even this year. 4 games against them, 3.80 ERA.