Balta1701

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 01:42 PM) Webb already up, but you're right on Montas, I should have added him. Though with BHAM in the playoff race, maybe he doesn't come up quite right away. Last time I looked BHam had fallen several games back and it looked like they were very likely out of it.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 02:28 AM) This is a good post. The bolded is just your opinion going into last season. Let's not act like you had some army behind you arguing the same. In any case, you were doing this same pseudo accounting last year that as you are doing now. It didn't work last offseason and it doesn't make sense here. 1.) Additional revenue =/= profit =/= additional payroll 2.) The capital-labor split is not 0/100. 3.) You are using multiple years of unaudited estimates as the basis of your pseudo accounting. 4.) You say ticket sales are down but this year attendance is up by almost 3K on average. That will go down in September but regardless, at this point, attendance is up this year. 5.) You act as if each revenue/expense account is reset after the World Series and teams are only subject to the prior year's comparative statement's increase/decrease. That's not how businesses work. The bolded was what really got me because it's actually showing that you replied without reading my posts. I have 100% said that ticket sales increased this year and even stated that it happened in large part because of the moves they made last offseason. They had a large surge of season ticket and ticket package sales after the Samardzija deal. Here are my own words from the previous post where I said "Ticket sales went up substantially": They absolutely received a ticket sale boost and a revenue boost from it this year. The point I'm making is that boost is extremely likely to evaporate. The lack of interest in this ballclub is amazing - even with a big season ticket boost we still are doing extremely poor on mid to late season single game ticket sales - we started from more season tickets sold and still had our worst midsummer attendance since before the world series. There's no interest for people to buy single game tickets and I think expecting that to carry over to the people who bought season tickets last offseason is entirely reasonable. Half of them are just bored with this team, the other 1/2 are pissed that they wasted their money on this and are in "we won't get fooled again" mode. With regard to your other points...yes, of course the split between revenue going to ballplayers and going to run the ballpark isn't 0/100, but the costs of opening the ballpark don't change by all that much whether you're selling 12k tickets or 25k tickets per game, they change slightly. And yes, it's pseudoaccounting because we don't have exact figures, but that doesn't mean they're not useful. If you've followed this team's behavior, their spending tracks the Forbes numbers very very well. If you said "In 2013 the white sox were probably close to breaking even or even losing money", then you counted revenue drop from ticket sales losses in 2014, payroll cuts, and the extra $25 million in national TV money, you could have come up with a number very close to how much they spent in 2015. It's not perfect. They absolutley could go into the red if they wanted. But if you've followed the Chicago White Sox...that is something this franchise historically does not do. The Chicago White Sox historically do exactly what you say in your last point - their payroll reflects revenue growth or revenue decline. They set themselves up in the offseason to operate at a small but solid profit every year and adjust payroll during the season if the numbers change. If you want an estimate of how much they have to spend and you're trying to figure out "can they afford Heyward under their normal behavior", the answer is "they need to move some salary or go into the red to do it". They may choose to do so, but that is not how this team typically behaves.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:47 PM) I absolutely agree about Heyward and Upton but there are other free agents that could help too. The Sox can look at trade possibilities too and not trades that empty the farm either. An exchange of bad contracts (Danks, LaRoche) is certainly a possibility and Hahn has mentioned that a few times throughout the season. Maybe there's a team or two willing to take on one year of Danks or LaRoche since the risk is only for one season. I'm not counting on it but crazier things have happened. Since none of us work for the FO we don't know anything about the Sox budgets or their plans this off season so I will not rule anything out. Many on this board did not think the Sox would acquire the players they did last winter and yet they did. Things did not go according to plan this year but that doesn't mean the Sox will stop trying. Way to early to write off the off season on the last day of August. What I would specifically say is that those who didn't think the White Sox would spend lots of money last offseason thought that because they were of the opinion that the White Sox could spend about $30 million or so in new money at most and that would not be nearly enough to turn them into a competitive team. The White Sox spent about $25 million in additional money. Basically the numbers wound up right where they thought. The Sox payroll last year was just over $90 million, give or take, and Forbes had them making $30 million. They basically spent exactly what the Forbes numbers said they had available. That also fit very well with where they wound up in 2013 and 2012; if you've followed the money this team has spent, watched the ticket sales go down, and then counted the extra $25 million they got in TV money starting in 2014, you'd get within $5 million or so of what they actually spent. They could decide to go into the red, but they have very little history of doing so. That's all we can say - for them to spend additional money, they would be crossing a line they have previously refused to cross.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:32 PM) Then don't use USCF as a reason Coop can do no wrong. If you are going to use it, shiuldn't they have a split well below average?The 1st inning runs this season have been ridiculous. It hints at pitchers not be ready when the game starts. They seem to be warming up just as much as other teams, but something is missing. Maybe they aren't mentally ready. That would be on the pitching coach. If Coop gets praise for the good, he needs to be ripped for the bad. So you think Coop did great work in 2014?

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:22 PM) This is a bunch of words that reveal nothing. Out of that I think I got that Patrick Kane is a blackhawks player and things could possibly happen to him or not.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:26 PM) What's our home-road ERA differential? Bigger than average, but I edited the last line to note that there's no reason why that can't happen in any given year. In 2014 it was reversed and the White Sox actually had a slightly lower road ERA than a home ERA.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:16 PM) Most Sox pitchers have higher ERA's on the road. Explain. The average ERA of pitchers across all of baseball at home is 3.71. The average ERA of pitchers across all of baseball on the road is 4.14. The average pitcher, if there was such a thing, is 0.43 runs per 9 innings worse on the road than at home. Therefore, it is totally unsurprising that most Sox pitchers have higher ERAs on the road and the White Sox having a split slightly above average could happen in any given year with a small amount of variance or with one pitcher who really likes pitching at home.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:07 PM) We'll free up nearly $10M by getting rid of Bonifacio, Beckham, & the ghost of Jeff Keppinger. Throw in Shark & Alexei and we could be looking at a good $30M in savings. Obviously there will be raises that offsets a portion of this money, but we should be able to add some pieces in free agency this offseason. If you go to the Baseball-Reference version, they've got just under $90 million committed to 9 players in 2016. They have 2 guys, possibly up to 4, who are likely to be offered arbitration: Jones, Garcia, Jennings, and Flowers. The first 3 guys all probably would come in around under $2 million while Flowers probably would be close to $4 million. If all 4 of those are offered arbitration that's close to $10 million, maybe a tiny bit less but close enough. Offering arbitration to those 4 thus puts the White Sox at $100 million. If, as some have noted, the White Sox pick up the option on Alexei Ramirez, which I think they will personally, that's $110 million for 14 players. Filling out the roster with minimum salary guys takes the roster up to $115-million ish with 0 additions, which is almost exactly where the total payroll was this year. If the White Sox decline Alexei's option, they will have about $9 million to play with to get back to this year's payroll-ish. Could they go beyond this year's payroll? The suggested offers of extensions to Samardzija suggests they might be able to, but they also made statements saying that they were able to afford Cabrera because of increased season ticket sales after the trade for Samardzija and signings of LaRoche, Robertson. I believe based on their attendence figures that they saw roughly 2000 extra season ticket packages sold this year, in addition probably to a number of smaller packages. Based on the 2015 season I find it difficult to believe that many of them will renew and they will likely also lose some of the old ones, so my expectation remains a revenue decrease rather than increase. They were expecting that being competitive in 2015 would give them the gradually growing ticket sales base to extend Samardzija; a failed season = a much bigger revenue drop than anticipated. Given that, I think it's optimistic to see them keeping the payroll roughly steady this year, but that's also basically where they've committed to be. I still find it unlikely that we will see payroll growth this year, but can't rule out other revenue stream growth such as streaming/MLB general revenue growth. My guess is they have Alexei's contract to play with. If Alexei's picked up, then you see some minor, Beckham-level additions to fill out the roster. Other than that, they will have to use the trade market and move payroll in order to take payroll on.

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 06:50 PM) Thanks for keeping us honest. I should have checked my math. 2012-2014 were certainly not good, but you can't complain with the rest. One thing that ought to illustrate is how much Danks's injury really hurt this franchise.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 05:28 PM) He shouldn't. He also shouldn't get a pass on producing only one staff in the top 1/2 of MLB in ERA in 7 seasons. He also shouldn't get a pass on his handling of the bullpen, and his status as Robin's mentor/shadow-manager, and Williams' mole. In a ballpark that's generally considered a hitters ballpark and in the AL where you don't have to face the pitcher, you can be one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and still meet that standard. While there are some issues with using it on its own, fWAR is a good double check to see if that fits. Here's where our staff has ranked in that stat in all of MLB over the past 7 seasons: 2015: 5th 2014: 23rd 2013: 16th 2012: 12th 2011: 2nd 2010: 1st 2009: 4th

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 04:02 PM) Regardless of whether or not the 16/17 year olds were doing this on their own or had a pimp/trafficker, they are exploited in the sense that they aren't of the age of consent (maybe 17 is legal in some states) and the "customer" is exploiting them whether or not he had to pay. According to brief search the age is 16 in Indiana (now my search history feels icky) and the maximum penalties could have been as much as 50 years.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 03:50 PM) They are guaranteed. Ozzie is still getting paid by Miami. There's probably some exclusivity agreement where the Sox could save money if he was hired by someone else, but every coach contract I've ever heard of is guaranteed, maybe with option years somehow at the end.

QUOTE (Brian @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 03:26 PM) If the investigation is still going, they probably wouldn't release it, right? With the shooter being dead they might be willing to, but it probably depends on what law enforcement asks. IIRC the video NBC got from the Virginia Tech killer they at least shared portions of on the day they received it or within short order.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 03:18 PM) Is there a link anywhere to the entire 23 page diatribe by this guy? ABC NEWS link? AFAIK they have not published the full document. It was only described in general and shared with law enforcement.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 02:13 PM) why? Because President McKinley had nothing to do with Alaska whatsoever, it's the traditional name of the mountain, the state of Alaska petitioned to have the name officially changed back in the 1970s, Congress's original writings on "Naming authority" for the Dept. of Interior gives the executive branch the authority to unilaterally change names if there is no response from Congress during a reasonable period of time (don't remember the exact words but it's something like that), and it makes a nice press release while on an Alaskan trip.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 01:55 PM) So they have 5 minutes to do something or it's just a block right? Seems that way, yes. The White Sox could in theory put him on irrevocable waivers and try again, but they're not going to do that.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 01:47 PM) I think Avi needs to start next year in Charlotte. I don't think that will do anything for him. He will go right back to ripping AAA pitchers like he was in 2013 before being traded and he'll still struggle when he is again faced with big league stuff. In the minors you can succeed by taking outside pitches and blooping them the other way. In the bigs, people put out scouting reports saying "don't throw the ball to him there, bust him inside and dare him to pull it, and stay off the plate and dare him to take the pitch".

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 09:36 AM) What is RV's current contract status? QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 09:44 AM) At the beginning of the 2014 season, we agreed to a "multi-year extension" with him, without actual terms of the contract being announced. From what I understand, managerial contracts don't really matter. By the reports I've seen his extension runs through the 2016 season although we don't know the dollar amount.

QUOTE (Brian @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 06:25 AM) Nauseated Middle of last season? This word would be completely fair. Right now they're rebuilding and doing so with a better, more experienced coaching staff than anyone could have hoped for in their wildest dreams last year.

I can't remember the last time Quintana had the bullpen up behind him in the 3rd inning.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 02:55 PM) To be fair,while overall violence is down, more law enforcement officials are being killed each year. http://nypost.com/2014/12/30/number-of-cop...-up-56-in-2014/ Link

This is not going well.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 02:35 PM) Would be nice if Avi could at least tie the game here. Yea no.

Would be nice if Avi could at least tie the game here.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 02:28 PM) He's fine as a number 3 starter. But if you are expecting him to be a number 2 on your team, then your rotation isn't a playoff caliber one. Yeah no.