2005 Arizona Fall League Top 20 Prospects
By Chris Kline
November 18, 2005
The AFL has always been known as a premier hitter’s league, and that trend picked up in 2005, as all-time league records fell one after the other. Among the marks shattered were batting average (.296), runs per game (12.14), hits per game (20.83), slugging percentage (.469) and ERA (5.40).
AFL players hit 220 homers in just 96 games (or an average of 2.20 per game, ahead of the major league average of 2.06), and the Peoria Saguaros set a new mark for team pitching futility in the AFL with a 6.90 ERA.
Still, three pitchers made the cut on the Top 20--none of them Saguaros--two more than last year. Athletics righthander Huston Street, BA’s 2005 Rookie of the Year, was the lone pitcher on the 2004 AFL list.
Hitters with potent bats again dominated this year's list, with 2005 minor league home runs king Brandon Wood leading the way. Wood ripped 14 more homers in the Fall League, topping Tagg Bozied’s all-time record of 12 in 2002.
The list reflects players' ceiling and impact potential with some consideration to AFL performance.
1. Brandon Wood, ss, Surprise Scorpions (Angels)
When managers and scouts saw Wood for the first time this fall, most were taken back that someone with his body-type—tall and wiry strong--led the minors in homers and amassed 101 extra-base hits. But once they saw him get in the cage and take his hacks during BP, perceptions quickly changed.
Wood has an outstanding combination of bat speed and leverage that allows him to generate loft power, as balls just fly off his bat. Pitchers had some success against him by working fastballs in on his hands and then setting him up away. Wood tends to chase pitches out of the zone, especially when he’s behind in the count, which led to many of his 31 strikeouts, which were the second-most in the league. His swing can get long. Defensively, Wood is average to above, with good hands, decent range and plus arm strength.
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2. Alex Gordon, 1b, Surprise Scorpions (Royals)
This is probably the only time in Gordon’s career that his name will be attached to this position, but Gordon broke into the pro ranks as a first baseman when the Royals named him to replace Justin Huber, who went down with an Achilles injury. Even though he was the best third baseman on the Surprise club, Gordon showed Gold Glove skills at the opposite corner with excellent footwork around the bag, good range, soft hands, and (naturally) the best throwing arm of any first baseman in the league.
Gordon’s quick hands and strong wrists are the foundation of a powerful stroke, and his bat gets through the hitting zone as fast as any minor leaguers’. He showed nothing but pure pull power early in his Fall League stint, but made adjustments by getting his hands higher and further out from his body and showed excellent power to all fields later in the AFL season. There are still some concerns about Gordon's ability to handle quality inside fastballs.
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3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3b, Peoria Saguaros (Nationals)
The Nationals gave their first-round pick two weeks off after the regular season ended, as Zimmerman took a well-deserved break—reaching the big leagues straight from Virginia after just two months as a pro. Zimmerman only got in 38 Fall League at-bats, but his impact left a lasting impression.
Easily the best defender in the AFL, Zimmerman was the most polished player in the league, and the Nationals recently traded Vinny Castilla to make room for Zimmerman in the big leagues. He has excellent first-step quickness and soft hands, earning comparisons to Graig Nettles for his overall defensive package. At the plate, Zimmerman has an easy, compact swing that produces primarily gap power presently. He’s an above-average runner. The only question is whether he’ll have enough juice in his bat to stay on the corner. Some scouts believe he could handle shortstop if not.
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4. Howie Kendrick, 2b, Surprise (Angels)
Kendrick was widely considered the best hitter in the league. One scout referred to him as “The Generator” for his approach with his hands—he holds them high next to his head, waving the bat in a circle that intensifies as the opposing pitcher goes into his windup. He rarely swings and misses, and his compact stroke coupled with quick hands, wrists and excellent hand-eye coordination allow him to make adjustments to any pitch, anywhere in the zone.
Kendrick’s biggest weakness has been his defense, but in the AFL he showed good range, soft hands, and a plus arm on the right side of the diamond. He needs to be more aggressive on the bases.
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5. Stephen Drew, ss, Phoenix (Diamondbacks)
While Zimmerman already debuted in the big leagues, Drew shows the tools to make the jump next season. He has an aggressive approach with good bat speed. He tends to expand his strike zone at times, and his hands at times get out in front of his body.
That said, his overall game has few weaknesses. He’s not the prototypical shortstop but has above-average middle-of-the-diamond skills with a lot of offensive upside. He plays without much outward enthusiasm, leading some scouts to express concern about his competitive drive. Some project him as a solid everyday player, while others see a perennial all-star.
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6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, Phoenix (Braves)
Saltalamacchia has the most helium on this list, improving his stock by becoming an adequate defender behind the plate in 2005. While the defense still lags behind his bat, Saltalamacchia continued to emphatically answer questions about his catching ability this fall.
Saltalamacchia has a sweet swing—he’s short to the ball and has good pop from both sides of the plate. He generates more power lefthanded, but worked on getting loaded earlier from the right side by moving his hands slightly lower. The adjustment plays to his strength—recognizing pitches and getting his arms extended through the hitting zone.
Saltalamacchia improved vastly behind the plate in 2005, but his catch-and-throw skills are presently fringe-average with the chance to improve. His receiving and game-calling are solid average.
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7. Ian Stewart, 3b, Peoria Javelinas (Rockies)
Stewart got off to a fast start in the Fall League, but had his season cut short after he sprained his wrist sliding into second base in late October. He started just 12 games, but five of his 13 hits were for extra bases.
Stewart possesses big raw power. His quick hands enable him to drive balls to all fields. A sprained wrist limited his Fall League stint to just 39 at-bats.
Stewart has good plate coverage and plate discipline, though he tends to try and hit home runs, causing a slight uppercut in his swing. Stewart is not a great runner, though he’s worked hard to improve his first-step quickness defensively and moves well laterally. His reactions on the corner could be better, as the only balls he struggles with are ones hit right at him.
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8. Lastings Milledge, of, Grand Canyon (Mets)
Milledge has the overall package and was one of the most complete players in the AFL, with all five tools playing right now. He batted primarily in the No. 2 hole for the Rafters, and is a legitimate top-of-the-order threat with speed and power.
Milledge made some minor adjustments to effectively drive the ball the other way, getting his front foot down earlier to get more strength from his back side and better incorporate his lower half. He adapts quickly and can make adjustments on the fly. Scouts questioned his instincts, however, particularly in the outfield. Primarily a center fielder throughout his career, Milledge played 34 games in left and had a hard time picking up balls and running precise routes. There is little doubt Milledge is all tooled up; he just needs polish to become more fundamentally sound.
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9. Chris Young, of, Peoria Saguaros (White Sox)
Young was one of the most athletic players in the Fall League, and possesses huge raw power with speed and a plus arm. He struggled with recognizing pitches at times, however, leading to bunches of strikeouts.
Plate discipline is the key to Young’s development. He struggles particularly with breaking balls, and tends to drag his hands behind his body with a pronounced drift. That opened him up to offspeed stuff away and quality fastballs over the inner part of the plate. Young is a plus defender in center field, running good routes with excellent instincts and quickness.
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