ScottyDo

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 02:36 PM) Well, keep in mind that there are 3 possibly outcomes, not 2 here. So the odds are more like 33.3 % in a sweep. Then you add in the conservative nature in the way the bullpens are usually managed - most managers will manage more safely in the first game to avoid running through their entire bullpen, and I think it leads to more splits. Most managers seem to almost manage for a split. That's not entirely accurate. It kind of works like a Punnett square, if you can think back to high school biology. You've got team A and team B. You've got 4 possible outcomes: AA, AB, BA, BB. If the teams are evenly matched, then you've got 2 sweeps and 2 splits.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 02:26 PM) It could also be that teams tend to win the game where they throw their better pitcher out against the other team's worse pitcher. The only thing I don't get about that, though, is why the odds of a DH are so much different than the odds of winning 2 consecutive games on different days. Same pitching matchups (theoretically), different results. Do teams pull up AAA pitchers for DH's way more often than I thought?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 02:20 PM) Stats like that suggest to me that there is a serious emotional component involved...one team is pissed that they lost the first game so they refocus for the 2nd game to avoid the sweep, while the other team becomes complacent for the 2nd game. I mean, it must be something like that. I was trying to take lineups and coaching moves into consideration but I couldn't really think of much that would swing the odds that far. It's gotta be something psychological, which is funny cuz as stat-heads, we reaaaaaally hate confounds like that.

So I watched yesterday's double-header, which we split, and it reminded me of a stat I heard a few years back: double-header sweeps happen something like 25% of the time. That's odd to me, because doing some real basic math, if the teams are evenly matched, you should see a sweep (one side or the other) 50% of the time, and a split the other 50%. What's more, if you assume that, on average, teams are NOT mismatched (i.e. one team has a 60% chance of winning the game and the other has a 40% chance), then the odds of either team A sweeping or team B sweeping goes over 50%. I found the stat again, and Elias says that 26.2% of double headers result in sweeps. Given the immense sample size of double headers, it's clear something is causing this disparity. I only bring this up because there were a few people outraged that we didn't sweep the Tigers in yesterday's DH, which I think is ridiculous because a) the odds of winning those two games WITHOUT the above stat aren't astronomically high and B ) something is clearly happening to push the odds against what people were clammoring for. Plus, Carlos Torres was pitching. P.S. if you have any insight into why the disparity between expectation and reality is so huge, please illuminate us.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 03:58 AM) Haven't we been saying that for months now though? Yeah, we have. I think playoffs are a different story, though. Part of the reason Kotsay has been getting so much time, I think, is that Ozzie would rather over-rely on Kotsay during the grind (heh) of the season to ensure that others are fresh for August/September/Beyond. Once crunch time hits -- and I could very well be wrong about this -- I have some faith that Kotsay will see a lot more bench. Also, Viciedo can't be ignored forever if he keeps raking.

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 02:11 AM) Maybe it is correct that Kotsay won't cost you a division. However, with how tough all pitching in the playoffs can be, having him on a playoff roster, let alone in the lineup, could definitely cost you a trip to the ALCS or WS. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, though. Oof. That hurts. The thought of Kotsay getting significant playing time in the regular season only bothers me marginally, but this is the first time I've thought about a lineup with Kotsay batting sixth IN THE PLAYOFFS. Ouch. And I'm not one of the guys who loses sleep over our DH situation, but I'd still be pretty mad at Ozzie. Somehow, I think cooler heads will prevail eventually, but I'm not sure what I'm basing that on. As far as Ranger goes, I actually didn't know he was Rongey for a while on these here boards, so I just thought he was another poster until I noticed exactly how much attention his every little comment got. To some extent, I think that puts a target on his back around here. All in all, though, the treatment of Rongey is roundly similar to the treatment of other people who run counter to the board's general train of thought. There's definitely something to be said for the consistency there. However, I wish people were more open to the idea that a: statistics rarely get to end the conversation like we want them to and b: baseball is largely a game of opinions. If it wasn't, we wouldn't have so many things to argue about. P.S. I'm not an anti-stats guy by any means, but you can't just throw WAR up there and declare the conversation over. It's got uncertainty just like the "eye test" does.

QUOTE (pcullotta @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 06:50 PM) To all of those saying Hanley Ramirez, what does he do that much better then Alexei? Even with his awful start, Alexei has the higher batting average. Doubles are pretty much a wash at 18 to 17, HR's are close at 14 to 11, and I don't think RBI's are very far off (56 to 43) considering Hanley is batting third every day and Alexei has been hitting eighth. Defensively, it isn't even close at this point. Alexei is one of the best defensive SS's in the game while Hanley is one of the worst. So again, outside of being a much more well known player, why take Hanley over Alexei? track record and age. alexei's older, right? if i'm starting a team, i take hanley over alexei in a heartbeat. at the moment, alexei is more valuable.

I wonder if Liney even gets invited to team extracurriculars anymore

QUOTE (Real @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 03:17 PM) Is it official yet? I want some Sale With his K:BB rate at infinity:4, add me to the list! I just wanna know what that type of stuff looks like.

Alexei's avg. up to .296. Torrid! I traded for him just in time!

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 02:48 PM) I think he feels like it keeps working. keep your mojo to yourself, hawk!

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 02:43 PM) Don't stop now booooyyys.....ok, even I am getting annoyed, Hawk. I think he should be allowed one of those per game. so far this season, he's been waaaay over his quota

Farmer just called Frazier's throw on the sac fly a "snigglepus throw" :

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 01:48 PM) One in particular brings back very bad, bad memories. Dweezy? Cabrera?

wow, hearing cooper act like a kid on his birthday really makes me wonder how high this guy's ceiling is. you'd think jackson would have to gain a measure of confidence just knowing how excited coop is to work with him.

QUOTE (pktmotion @ Aug 1, 2010 -> 01:14 AM) Wow relievers were a hot commodity once again. Capps for Wilson Ramos/Joe Testa Dotel for James McDonald/Andrew Lambo Lopez for John Bowker/Joe Martinez It seems like we could've traded a bullpen arm? What would Putz or even Santos land, if Dotel netted Lambo/McDonald? Not saying I wanted the Sox to be sellers, but if you see certain markets heating up; act on them. Those prospects could've been packaged for a bigger move. oh and can someone say no to the Yankees. Yankees: Hey Cleveland were taking Kearns and Wood for a while Indians: Ok are you putting up anything? Yankees: EH....will let you know later. We've gotta go to Houston and take their best hitter and some of their money. Hahaha, agreed that they just kind of swept into town and declared they were taking people. I question how much kearns, woods, or berkman are gonna do in new york, but they gave up nothing for him so i see your point.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 1, 2010 -> 06:13 PM) Gio dominating us today makes me hate Nick Swisher even more. Dominated with a big fat L and 4 of those little ER things! Suck it, Gio!

Ruh roh, first place on Aug. 1! Time for some fun! Some potentially heartbreaking fun.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 1, 2010 -> 05:30 PM) As good of a homestand as you can get. thats loser talk! we can do better!

god, if jenks pitches like that from here on out...

Wow, bobby! way to get back to what broughtcha here!

QUOTE (SmashROT @ Aug 1, 2010 -> 04:42 PM) 151 Bet you got your sig, tho! I (embarrassingly) missed him. And Rock Well, I have the excuse of not being a Sox fan till 2000, but its not much of an excuse.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 1, 2010 -> 04:20 PM) This is a smart baseball play and i have no idea why no one does it either. Probably cuz the last time Thome was asked to drop a bunt was in little league, 1971

so close, dayman!

hahaha okay i guess they might. i didn't really think that through, i just thought they'd be pretty eager to get him off the books until theyve got a team worth building around