southsider2k5

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 01:02 PM) You've completely ignored the seller side of the equation. Four months from now Archer & Gray may be more attractive and/or more readily available. There also may be some rental options available that don't require a team gutting the top end of their system. There is way too much history of teams moving heaven and earth to get 1/2 starters, both at the deadline and in the off season for me to believe that.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:59 PM) Definitely slows down the rebuild by hurting draft position in 2018 and delaying the arrival of prospects to the organization. I guess there's a slim possibility Sox get better value for Quintana next year, basically you're betting that Quintana turns in a ~2.50ish ERA with his usual workload and finishes in the year in the Cy Young race. Sounds like a silly bet to me, especially with all that can go wrong and preexisting disadvantages to waiting to deal Quintana. It doesn't really slow anything down that much. This team is going to suck this year. They are going to play awful defense. Most of the players we got aren't even going to contribute this year anyway.

QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:49 PM) I think it is useful to revisit the Cubs trade to the A's" for 3 prospects in July 2014. "Samardzija, 29, is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season. Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA . Hammel is set to become a free agent after this season, while Samardzija has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Russell, 20, is ranked third among all prospects on ESPN Insider Keith Law's top 100 list. Russell has appeared in only 18 games this season due to a hamstring strain, hitting .333 in 58 at-bats at Double-A Midland. McKinney, 19, has a .241 batting average with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 75 games for Class A Stockton this year. Straily, 25, is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts for the A's. The right-hander is 13-11 in 41 starts for Oakland over the past three seasons. I believe Billy Beane thought this would let them make a run. Lessons can be learned from history, even recent history. One of the biggest lessons is patience. I am hoping Hahn has enough of it to wait this thing out until the time is right to win on a trade. I don't buy the no-balls. fold'em instead of hold 'em, school of thought which claims that Q must be traded before ST lest he be injured, his performance drops, the market for pitchers weakens... This is our biggest trade chip. Hahn has to be The Gambler. Bluff, posture, look confident, and win at baseball's version of poker. Samardjiza is another great deadline example.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:47 PM) Except no one is saying that. There's alot of unknown factors which I prefaced my statement with. My first assumption is I think Hahn's asking price is ridiculous and it doesnt correlated potentially with what other teams view Q as which is what Rabbit was alluding to. So they need to decide if that last part is especially the case do they gain anything from waiting? Does his value go up? My answer is no. I dont see a point in which if the answer to that last part being no there would be a positive outcome. It takes one team to give in and push in their top guy. Waiting could well be the difference between getting a pile of prospects, and getting a top 10 prospect, plus other prospects. Guys like Meadows, Torres, Bregman, etc are worth waiting out to try to get. Seeing the offers that are talked about now, I don't see them really being significantly less in six months or even a year. No one has offered a top 10 guy. There are offers of top 50 guys, plus other end of the top 100 guys, plus maybe others. Let me throw this back the other way. Look at what Cole Hamels went for at the 2015 deadline, and that was with about $100 million left on his deal. Q should be in that ballpark, and I have no reason to think he won't get that even if it is at this deadline or next winter.

QUOTE (joejoedairy @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 11:12 AM) It was a great episode and a great season. That seemed like it was probably the end of the series though which is too bad. I agree that it had that feeling to it. Hopefully that isn't it, but at the same time, that is a great place to end it.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:28 PM) There's no guarantee that waiting results in a better offer though. In fact, many posters here have detailed why it's unlikely to expect better offer in the future than right now. That's not to say it's impossible to get a better offer by waiting, but the question quickly becomes how much is the potential upside worth relative to the potential downside of holding him into next season. I just can't put together a rational scenario where the market dynamics play out in such a way that the projected reward exceeds the incremental risks. Without knowing specific offers this obviously is just speculation, but passing on a strong offer now in hopes of a perfect offer later is a fool's bet. Quintana is too valuable to this rebuild to take that gamble. Seeing as Q is still signed for 4 more years, losing a year isn't going to hurt his value that much. This isn't a guy hitting free agency in 1 or 2 years. I think Q is the last big chip we have. Losing him for an inferior return will hurt this rebuild way worse than holding on to him for another year would.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 11:47 AM) No one on here is arguing for that last part. I get sick of hearing it. If the argument is that a deal has to be made right now, no matter what, you are saying that the team has to accept the best offer on the table, no matter what. That means taking potentially less than if you were able to wait out a better offer. So even if the statement isn't there, the idea is implicit in saying the trade has to get done NOW.

QUOTE (striker @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 10:50 AM) This. The Quintana trade is a very key piece to our upgrade process and not worth the game of holding onto him. Quintana's value can go down (performance or injury) just as easily as any of the prospects we get in return. I can take that risk with trading Frazier, Abreu or Cabrera, and Robertson, but I wouldn't with Quintana or Jones. Which is why we need to be sure that what we get back has the high potential to be an upgrade, and not just a move to make the move.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 08:31 AM) I remember the halcyon days of late 2013 when it became clear the White Sox would get the #3 pick and not the #1 pick and how badly they screwed up by costing themselves the chance at the clear #1 pick, Carlos Rodon. Not to mention the extra $2.2 million they got to spend to draft and sign some outliers.

QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 10:08 AM) Sox never gave a player 100 million so it won't happen. On the bright side, since you know everything already, there is literally no reason for you to watch or talk about baseball now.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 10:04 AM) Had Bregman, Swanson or Turner struggled I bet he would be in play as well I feel AJ Reed is very much in play for the Sox due to mlb struggles Giolito would never be traded if he went out there and looked dominant. Same goes with Glasnow. Moncada was brought up far too soon, and never played above AA ball. He needs time in AAA to work on some things before getting called up later in the season if he is ready. Ideally I would wait until next season to call him up and prevent his service clock from starting to tick. I am perfectly OK with Moncada playing a full minor league season. If his MLB debut showed anything at all, it is that he needs reps, and he needs ABs. Maybe he dominates Charlotte and forces a call up, but I am plenty fine with him forcing that, versus us calling him just because his deadlines pass.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 09:25 AM) The point was that there is a wider range of players available in January than there is in June/July and that's true. Certainly there's a full spectrum of outcomes that could happen with the players in consideration now and that's worth noting. However, the underlying point that is indisputable in my opinion is the fact that the Sox have a wider pool of players to choose from than they will in July. There are players that could "potentially" help an MLB team in 2017 that are available now like Glasnow. If Glasnow sticks with Pittsburg and becomes a #3 type this year, he's out. Sox aren't getting him anymore. Same could be said with Martes, Albies and potential other headliners. This isn't even considering the risk of Quintana getting hurt, underperforming or having his value flogged down with bad luck in a small sample size (high BABIP, unsustainable HR/FB%, bad defense, etc.). If you're Chris Sale or Kershaw your value won't be touched by a three months of a say, 4.2 ERA, but if you're Jose Quintana...who knows how that affects things. He's not the sexy American with a 98 MPH who's been under baseball fans' microscope for ten years. He's the minor league free agent from Columbia who you're pleasantly surprised hits 93 MPH. He takes the ball every fifth days and uses everything in his repertoire to get people out. At this point, despite his contract and track record, his value is far from fungible. He's more susceptible to a value regression than most of his value equivalents. It's hard to say what the Sox should do without seeing the actual offers, but to me, his value is likely higher than it ever will be and the returns are not going to have the inclusiveness they have now until next November. I also fully believe that neither Moncada or Giolitto are available without their problems at the major league level last year. If they had a Gary Sanchez type of debut, they aren't White Sox today.

QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 08:51 AM) Don't you see Jose Quintana demanding $150 million from the white sox. If that was what he demanded from his next deal, you give it to him in a heartbeat. Luckily we don't have to worry about that until next decade.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 07:13 AM) For the next 3 weeks, Rick Hahn has just as little pressure to get this done as the teams out there have to make the deal. How exactly are these teams going to fall out of the market for Q? The Astros are going to find someone better? They're going to get Sonny Gray and tell themselves that solves the problem of their rotation being inconsistent? For the next 3 years, Rick Hahn has less pressure than any GM looking to compete. All he has to do is show "progress". It doesn't matter a lick if the team on the field absolutely sucks. Can the Pirates, Astros, Yankees, etc say the same? Uh, no.

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 10:46 PM) Has it been discussed that it is possible Hahn has received an offer he is willing to accept but he just wants to wait out the offseason to see if anyone can match or beat the offer? If he had an offer, he might give a short time period to other teams, but I can't see it being more than 24 to 48 hours.

QUOTE (New Era on South Side @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 10:38 PM) Will anyone going to SoxFest go to a Q&A with RH and grill him? Beat him up a bit and see what he says about Quintana? The lack of rumors and disagreement over what to do with Quintana now and at the deadline is driving me crazy. Why? Because of impatience? Seriously, this is going to be a long 5 years for you.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 09:48 PM) There will be A and AA players that take significant steps forward in the next 6 months. And there will all be a fair amount of the players we are begging for now, who take a significant step backwards.,

I got given a Pioneer reel to reel today by someone cleaning out their basement. Yes, I am excited.

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 03:12 PM) Yours is a very reasonable, nuanced position. I hope he can be Jack McDowell 2.0 Or Chris Sale for that matter. Not saying it can't be done, but is definitely something that can hurt players. I remember a story about Jeff Weaver starting a brawl, and everyone hated him so much that no one wanted to leave the dugout.

I might actually have to go to a game this year. This is a give away that people will kick themselves for missing in 10/20 years once Hawk is gone.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 02:07 PM) If we're going to hate on talented, cocky, young kids then this rebuild is really going to be tough. I wouldn't call it hate. I would call it recognizing something that could hold him back from realizing his potential.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m1 minute ago Sources: #BlueJays, Bautista have deal: One year, mutual option, pending physical. Announcement expected later in week. @BProToronto first. 5 replies 135 retweets 85 likes

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 01:26 PM) Probably not, but I'm not saying that definitively. With a lot of the old-schoolers getting chopped off the electorate last year, I'm still holding out a little hope. In my opinion, they should find a format that three, and only three, former MLB players get in each year. That would be a good percentage of former players that get in. It's more than the top 1%, but still less than 2%. Plus then it wouldn't take 75% to get in. The whole steroid era kinda messed it all up with the backlog. They need like 78 and 79% of remaining ballots to make it, at a point when percentages historically drop in the balloting process.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 01:33 PM) While the headliner is very important (and can be deal breaking), I am willing to look at a package as a whole if it makes sense Sox are looking for a 3 - 4 player deal of players all with high upside Yeah, there are a few teams left who can make up for not having a Moncada level player at the top by loading up with a lot of quantity.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 01:17 PM) I'm hoping the remaining ballots are the non-Bonds/Clemens people, and their votes are more pro-Guerrero. Only 2 would be disappointing. 3 is ok, but no Guerrero is a joke. 4 or 5 would be very nice. If they aren't over 75% now, Hoffman and Vlad aren't making it this time around.