Rex Kickass

CNN shows red on the magic wall because that's who has the current lead.

50 minute wait. 40 year old Machine ballots.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2008 -> 07:06 PM) The fact that the earliest precincts in Indiana are reporting from the rural areas and Indiana is splitting 50/50 in those areas is a strong sign of Indiana going blue. None of the college towns are in at all yet either, let alone NW and marion. Indiana actually has a shot at making my prediction of Virginia being the "Celebrate at the first switching red state" be wrong. If either of them switch, its pretty much over provided that Pennsylvania stays in Obama's corner.

This hologram s*** is ridiculous and stupid.

My Man Mitch wins reelection in Indiana as Governor.

Obama wins VT McCain wins KY. McCain - 8, Obama - 3.

My guess is KY and VT will be called in 7 minutes. Maybe SC. I would be surprised to see GA or IN call for either candidate in the next hour.

CNN is saying that McCain's White Evangelical percentage is lagging behind Bush's 2004 take by 6 points.

The official Election night results thread. CNN Exit Polls - 68% top issue economy. New Voters are going 72-27 for Obama. Drudge Exit leak - 58 Senate seats for Democrats. First polls close in 19 minutes!

First Exit Poll leak on Drudge: DEMS SEE 58 SENATE SEATS. So I guess Franken and Begich win and either Saxby Chambliss or Mitch McConnell loses is what Drudge is seeing.

I voted a straight Dem ticket for the first time in my life. Mostly because there wasn't much on the ballot in New York City. So, in 13 years of voting, I've voted straight DEM once and straight GOP once. It took about 50 minutes to get to the voting booth.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 05:46 PM) ok, you California people refresh my memory... Yes on 8 would say get rid of gay marriage? Personally, you're talking to one "Republican" (no, I'm not a registered one) that thinks they need to stay the hell out of issues like this, period. So, no, I don't need to feel any of that BS pain. I feel it enough already. Yes on 8 would actually nullify existing marriages.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 06:10 PM) Somebody convince this lifelong Republican why I should continue my streak of voting for Republicans tomorrow. McCain's picking Palin ousted me. I'm still gonna check White Sox fan's name at this moment. Vote on the issues. Who do you think will be a better leader fiscally, and in foreign affairs? Who do you think will back the social issues that matter to you most? I'm an Obama supporter, but I think that voting in what you believe in is important. If you believe that McCain will stand for the things you believe in more, that's who you should vote for.

"Good-Bye Lenin!" And just about any movie that's on a plane for some reason. What is it with movies in planes making me want to cry? I mean, come on, "No Reservations?" What is wrong with me?

Kinda cool. In Philadelphia, Precinct Captains get "street money" to turn out the vote in the Democratic party. It's a patronage system and a tradition, and legal but shady. In 2004, they got $400 per voting division. This year, they only got half that. Why? Obama refused to pay "street money." The money they got came from Philly and PA power brokers, not the Obama camp. Which is kind of a big deal in my mind. It's a rejection of machine politics that very few democrats are willing to do. http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/110...ly.html?showall

That is sad.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 29, 2008 -> 04:43 PM) Yeah, those are always weird moments - not knowing where you are, laying in the dark. Funny later, but a bit freaky at the time, when you are half asleep. That happened to me once in Prague, but I think that was the Absinthe's fault.

Absolute must haves? Book. Another Book. Passport, Wallet, Cell phone. Depending on where I travel, sometimes an iPod and/or Laptop. Everything else can be taken care of if necessary.

Walgreen's Black Friday specials! Kodak Easy Share C913 9 Mega Pixel Digital Camera - 79.99 Venturer 10" Flat Panel LCD TV! - 99.99 http://downloads.bfads.net/BFAds-Walgreens-2008.pdf

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 03:45 PM) Well, the thing is, if it's 60-40 McCain, the polls actually are lowballing McCain's chances, oddly enough. No they aren't. The polling average has Barack Obama with a 7.4% lead over McCain, with exactly 4.4% undecided. If it's 60-40, McCain only loses by 6 points. But he still loses by a Bob Dole like margin.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 12:04 PM) Technically, 329 is not a landslide by historical standards. Between 1944-1996, only Carter in '76, Nixon in '68, Kennedy in '60 and Truman in '48 have won the presidency with LESS than 329 electoral votes. And, only carter in '76 finished with less than 300. So, since 1944, most elections have been significant electoral college margins. 2000 and 2004 seem to be against the historical trend. But based on the last two elections and how the states break down, if Obama gets 329, it's a landslide. I define landslide as 375 electoral votes or 70% of the electoral college. The last landslide, IMHO was George Bush's 400+ EV in 1988.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 12:16 PM) Well, that's not what I saw last night. I do think that Obama's ground game has been tremendous, and will be the difference. I'd say he has a good ground game by GOP 2000 standards. Bush set a new bar that McCain won't even come close to touching in 2004. Their 72 Hour Plan has not nearly been as well funded or thought out as Bush's was. Obama is having volunteer phone bank a half million calls a day, the three days prior to the election. In many states, Obama apparatus is overlapping with DNC apparatus, which is overlapping with state party apparatus.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 02:49 PM) I think that's the biggest mistake of McCain. If the election is a referendum AGAINST someone, you're going to lose way more often then not. This is a referendum AGAINST Barack Obama... which is a bit strange to say. Therefore, McCain will lose. I think I can honestly say that it works sometimes. This just isn't one of those elections. It worked in 06. It worked for Bush in 04. I encountered too many "but it would be even worse with Kerry" voters. It was the lynchpin of both candidates in 2000. It doesn't work when you've got a candidate who people really can rally around. It wouldn't work with Reagan. It doesn't work with Obama.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 11:11 AM) They were going over the early voting numbers by party last night. Democrats have by far and away voted early more then Republicans. I wonder how all that will play out. Axelrod thinks they're "gravy" votes. I tend to disagree with that: but I do think it's a tremendous advantage nonetheless. I think he's using the term in the sense that he doesn't wanna rely on them. Say what you want about Obama's campaign, but in terms of GOTV effort, they are leaving nothing on the road this time around.

I think Obama maintains all Kerry states from 2004, and adds IA, NM, CO, NV, VA and OH. This gives Obama 291 Electoral Votes. I think that FL, MO, MT, IN will all come down to turnout at the polls and GOTV operations. I think that Obama will win at least two of these states, probably FL and MO. My prediction? Obama - 329, McCain - 209. A comfortable win, but no landslide for Obama. I think there is a slight possibility that we'll see IN, MT, ND and AZ as well, which would put Obama up over 350, but its not the most likely option.