Jack Parkman

Giolito was only dogshit for 1 season. Then he became a high end #2 with ace potential.

Nobody is saying they shouldn't upgrade the rotation and RF. What people are saying is that they shouldn't be trading top prospects to do it. Spend money, keep the prospects.

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things does not belong. Lopez has had 3 full seasons of being dogshit, where Cease, Kopech and Dunning haven't even pitched a full season yet.

Cease peaked at about 25-ish. And yes, Giolito was the top pitching prospect in baseball for 2 seasons. But he's a completely different pitcher now than he was then. That guy had a 98-99 mph fastball and a hammer of a curveball. Now he's a 95 mph fastball with insane late life and a ++change and +slider.

Pitching prospects are fickle. Kelley's status to me depends on whether or not the Sox can extend Giolito. As much as I want them to do it, I kinda find a Giolito extension unlikely at this point due to money tied up in the position player group. I'm on the fence with Kelley.

Don't sleep on the Padres, Blue Jays and Braves.

Oops. I was doing the math over 4 years instead of 5. Yeah, 5/90 is about right.

Agreed. They still need to grow. They're absolutely not at the level of the Dodgers, Yankees, or Rays yet. Are they the AL Central favorites going into the offseason? Absolutely. but they're still a year or two from being at the peak of their powers. Plus, we have no idea what Moncada is or isn't going to be post-covid. Him not being at least an allstar caliber player creates another problem, because they're paying him as such. I tend to be optimistic that he'll be ok.

As much as I like Jared Kelley, he's a guy that I see as a top trade chip in a year or two to acquire a guy that can put them over the top. As a HS kid, unless he just flies through the minors, he's not going to be ready for at least 3-4 seasons from this one.

Yep. Upgrade with money, not prospects. The Sox offense and top of the rotation is good enough that they aren't punting seasons if they keep all of the prospects and sign one B tier pitcher this winter. Like I said, Sugano and Arihara are also options.....if they're willing to go somewhere other than the West Coast/NYC/Boston. I think that the Sox should sign one B tier pitcher and let Cease/Dunning/Kopech compete for the other two spots and sort themselves out. If none do well, add at the TDL.

If I'm the Sox seeing if Giolito is willing to take a 5/65-70 deal to buy out the remaining Arb years and 2 years of FA is high on my priority list. He's proven enough to me. 2 seasons of strong #2 performance and a no-hitter are enough to pay him in my book.

Yeah Agreed on Kelley.

Those guys? sure. You don't trade Kopech, Crochet or Vaughn though.

If they're running 162 I'd wait until the TDL to make a move, and give some of their guys another 1/2 season to prove themselves or not. Like I said, I'm not a huge Cease or Madrigal fan so I'd trade them in a deal this winter for a pitcher with 3+ years of control.

They should learn from the Cubs that the window closes very quickly if you trade your 2nd wave of prospects. The Sox have a more numerous 2nd wave than the Cubs did. Should they trade some of them? Sure. There are some guys that you absolutely have to keep. Kopech, Vaughn and Crochet are in that group.

My theory is that if you keep your guys and let them sort themselves out, you get more cracks at the playoffs which gives you more opportunities to win a WS.

This is the first offseason in which the window is officially open. Be patient and see what you have in your guys before making moves.

The "all in" year is 2023 if they can't extend Giolito. What threw the timing off a bit was Kopech and Dunning going down to TJS when they did. It just sucked. They were both ready to make the jump to MLB.

That's why you buy talent instead of trading for it. I'd trade Cease or Dunning(but not both) for Darvish, even though he's expensive because he has a long track record of being a legit #2 with ace stretches. He still has TOR stuff as well.

I'm fine with renting him, but not for Cease or Dunning (and I don't like Cease that much either)

I think Lynn had like a 4.2 ERA in September while being ridiculous in July/August. I'm just not sure how much you can take from a veteran player's performance in 60 games, whether good or bad.

^^^^^

While very true, I don't want to extend Lynn based on his last two years of performance, mostly because I think they're an outlier.

I don't trust Lynn to keep up that type of production. He had the best years of his career at 32 and 33. That's not likely to continue. If you want Lynn, either get him for your price or wait until 2022 when he's free again, and will take a Charlie Morton type 2 year deal.

Dunning has the ability to do both. He has games where he's running sinker-slider-change and he has games where he's running fastball-curveball-change. It all depends on which group is working that day. That makes him harder to hit (theoretically)