Lillian

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 06:05 AM) My ideal lineup in about 2-3 years would have Eloy, Robert and Garcia as the starting OF. Anderson, Moncada, and Abreu in the IF. Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez in the rotation. If players stay on their projections, that's a top level team. I agree with you. If you add 1, or 2 left handed bats, at either DH or 3RD base, or even if Collins fulfills his promise, you have the makings of a very potent offense.

This discussion brings up a larger point, which when addressed, may shed more light on exactly how to evaluate a guy like Avi. Ted Williams used to say that it takes a hitter about 1,000 at bats, in the Majors, to figure it out. That was in a very different era, where pitchers threw pretty much fastballs, curves and change ups, and the fastballs were not routinely in the mid 90's. Moreover, bullpens consisted of guys who weren't good enough to be starters. Then too, starters were expected to go the distance, unless they simply didn't have it, on that day. That gave hitters a chance to see the same guy 3 to 5 at bats, in a game. Today, you usually get 2, maybe 3 shots at the starter, and then you typically face a couple of the 3 to 4 different flame throwers, out of the pen. There is simply no preparation, in a young hitter's career, for that kind of challenge. We may have to temper our expectations, regarding how fast these young prospects can make the adjustment to the Major Leagues. Oh sure, there are the exceptions, the Harpers and Trouts, and in the previous generation, the Griffey Jr's and A-Rods, but they are indeed the exception, not the rule. The faster a player is brought up, the greater the challenge. Not only is he young and not yet physically mature, but he has not had an opportunity to slowly make the adjustment to the increasing difficultly of the caliber of pitching, which he faces at each progressive level. He comes from having faced pitchers with limited arsenals, to an almost overwhelming challenge of facing consistent "heat" and a much wider diversity of pitches. Where in the lower levels does he face Major League quality cutters, sliders, both 2 and 4 seam fastballs, incredibly deceptive change ups and more? It is his first exposure to that kind of challenge. Hitting is a skill. It does not take great athleticism, but it requires an awful lot of practice. Oh sure, there are pitching machines that are capable of simulating every kind of pitch, but it is not the same as facing a pitcher. The skill required takes reps, and those reps can't be repeated in the lower levels of professional baseball, much less in high school, or even college. If Ted Williams was right, it is safe to say that it should now take considerably more than 1,000 at bats, or 2 seasons, for most hitters to really "figure it out". In that context, maybe it's a little harsh and unfair to criticize Avi, because he didn't do, what he is now doing, when he was 24 and 25 years old, in his first full seasons in the Majors. Then too, there was that lost season to the shoulder injury, which likely stalled his progress. There are several guys, who have taken a while to "figure it out". Players like Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak may be more common now, than they were in previous eras. Avi has actually developed at a reasonable pace. After all, this was only his age 26 season.

QUOTE (Soha @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 05:59 AM) While I agree with you about not being eager to trade Avi, I don't think Blake is a good example. Blake feels like his stock has regressed quite a bit and I doubt he will be in the top 100 after the re-rankings are done. That is precisely my point, regarding prospects. They are prone to having diminished expectations. A top prospect one day and a total bust, the next. There is risk with every player, but I'd rather put my money on a guy who has proven it, to some degree, which Avi certainly has, than a guy who has never faced a Big League pitcher.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 05:04 AM) A top 50 prospect for starters. I don't even know what teams would want Avi so it's kind of pointless to discuss at this point. The rumored interest has been pretty minimal. Edit: Only thing that might sway me with signing him now is a major hometown discount (a la Buehrle or Quintana). He kind of does owe it to the Sox who gave him more chances than I've seen any team give a player EVER. OK, that is where we really disagree. I would not accept a top 50 prospect for Avi. Blake Rutherford is a #42 ranked prospect, by MLB Pipeline and I certainly would not take someone like him, for Avi. Maybe a top 10 prospect, depending upon the tools. but not some guy who is ranked #40 or 50. May I ask, how do you know what the interest is and what the speculated price might be?

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 04:35 AM) It doesn't matter what he did this year. The contract would be paying for his performance over the next 4-5 years not this year. Too many mistakes to count have been made by teams who extend veterans who come out of nowhere with career years like this. No need to cripple the rebuild before it even gets off the ground. If you are going to keep him around make him prove it for another few seasons. If paying players who prove they deserve the money with a long term track record (2-3 seasons) is such a big issue for this club, they don't deserve to be a contender. His body of work is still nothing spectacular and quite mediocre. If another team falls in love with his one good year and we can move him for a good enough return, so be it. No one is saying give him away, but if a team pursues him and is willing to give up the right price, he's gone in my mind. Alright, so please provide an example, of what you would consider the "right price" for Avi, in a trade. That would give us something to discuss. It is worth noting that Avi is not really fairly considered a "veteran who came out of nowhere". This was his age 26 season, and he had been very highly regarded, as a young prospect. It appears to be more the case that he has finally begun to realize expectations.

QUOTE (Bighurt52235 @ Sep 14, 2017 -> 09:18 PM) I'm sorry, are you suggesting that Avi might require more money than Manny Machado? No, I am not suggesting that. Since we don't know what kind of contract, an extension would require, I was simply stating that I wouldn't advocate paying him the kind of money that Machado might receive, which could be 10 years, at $30 Million per season, or more. However, if it is something like 6 years, at $17 to $18 million, that seems very reasonable, in today's market for a guy, who is just beginning his prime. A 6 year deal would cover him from age 27 through 32. An extension for Avi should not look like a free agent contract. That is the point of extending a guy, rather than hiring a free agent. The advantage to Avi is that he would increase his earnings, over what arbitration would garner, until he reaches the point where he otherwise would have been a free agent. He would also have the security of a contract, which at the present time does not obligate his employer to anything more than year to year. And finally, he would still be young enough, at 33, to seek one big free agent deal, providing that he stays healthy and productive. Here is the larger point: Let's assume that you trade both Avi and Jose, for more prospects. Alright, now build the heart of the order; 3 through 6. We probably all agree that Jimenez has a really good shot to be a legitimate #3, or clean up hitter. OK, that's one. Who are the other 3 guys? Remember, I see much more value in Moncada being a Raines/Henderson type leadoff hitter, than hitting in the heart of the order. So, are you really confident that Burger, Robert, Rutherford, Sheets, Gillaspie and which ever additional such prospects, whom the Sox might acquire, will yield 3 more hitters like Avi and Jose? By contrast, retaining both of them, makes the task much easier. With Eloy added, they are only one bat short of a very productive middle of the order. Of course, you all know that I think it needs to be a LH bat. LOL. I don't see the logic in trading every prospect who becomes a Star, for more prospects. That seems like a formula for eternal hope, with no actual realization of the dream. At some point, you have to pay your producers. If the goal is to never have to award a decent contract, but rather trade away every productive asset, before he starts earning the big money, I think that represents an unrealistic challenge. The current roster has enough talent to be very competitive, once the youngsters arrive, providing that you keep a few of your already proven players. There are more than sufficient financial resources to accomplish that, with next year's projected modest payroll.

Obviously, it depends upon how much money it would require to lock up Avi, for the next 5 or 6 years. If it is going to take more than what the Sox would have to pay for a proven free agent, such as Machado, then the money would be better spent on the more established player. I'm assuming that since Avi has a couple of years to go, before free agency, that he would consider signing an extension, to increase what he would make over those 2 remaining years, and acquire some security for himself. A contract that would take him to age 32, would still give him one more shot at a bigger deal, when it expires. One more point, which some of us are overlooking, is the possibility that we haven't yet seen the best of Avi. He has tremendous power. He may end up hitting a lot more home runs and driving in more runs, even at the expense of sacrificing a few points on that impressive batting average. Look, it's always a gamble with any of these players and the huge money that they are paid. However, a reasonable contract would seem like a worthwhile risk.

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having? Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him. I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win a lot of games. Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects. I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

You all know how much I'm loving the progress we're watching with Adam.

Yes, and last night you saw both the power and the speed. His potential is indeed intriguing.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 11, 2017 -> 07:48 PM) Basically the favorable position the cat has put itself into before pouncing on the bird. To me, it's the same as waiting in the weeds. From Webster's Dictionary: In the catbird seat was among the numerous folksy expressions that legendary baseball broadcaster Red Barber used to delight listeners. Some say he invented the expression; others say that he dug it up from his Southern origins. But the truth may be far stranger than those rumors. In a 1942 short story titled "The Catbird Seat," James Thurber featured a character, Mrs. Barrows, who liked to use the phrase. Another character, Joey Hart, explained that Mrs. Barrows must have picked up the expression from Red Barber. To Red, according to Joey, sitting in the catbird seat meant 'sitting pretty,' like a batter with three balls and no strikes on him. But, according to Barber's daughter, it was only after Barber read Thurber's story that he started using "in the catbird seat" himself.

Boy, the book is really out on Tim. 5 sliders at the same speed, in the same location.

QUOTE (Superstar Lamar @ Sep 11, 2017 -> 03:44 PM) Didn't they have exactly the same guy you are describing just last year in Saladino? Just like Saladino this year, I wouldn't bank on Sanchez' performance to be repeated Sanchez is 3 years younger than Saladino, and has consistently played at levels above his age. It is just as likely that he will get even better. Also, don't discount his value as a great clubhouse guy.

As I posted a few days ago, his stats look even better vs. RHP: AVG .274 OBP .330 SLG .430 I'll stick with my suggestion that the Sox let Matt play 3RD vs LHP. That would provide the benefit of providing some hint as to whether, or not, Davidson can become good enough defensively to play the hot corner. If his bats plays, Matt can DH vs. RHP.

Those are interesting comments from Hahn, which I had not seen. Thanks for the link. Well, perhaps Hahn is going to try to assemble a core of almost exclusively kids. If that is his plan, then the Sox probably will not be contenders until 2020, or 2021. I had hoped for 2019.

Love our "kids" tonight. Yolmer, T.A., Nicky and Yoan. "Put it 'em on the board, YES!!!!"

Well, I just watched the video of Yolmer's homer. It was another blast, way back. That little guy has got some pop.

I didn't see this Yolmer homer, but a couple of his recent bombs have been "way back". He didn't look like he was swinging that hard, either. He appears to have more power than most of us thought. I'm eager to see the replay of tonight's homer.

Jose will probably be the #3, or 4 hitter and veteran leader, for the young contending club in 2019 and I believe that they will try to extend him. If he stays in his current shape, which is perhaps the best he's been since coming to the States, the front office may have confidence in his ability to be productive, into his mid 30's. I suspect that by then, he will be the DH. He is the clubhouse leader, especially for the Latin players, particularly Jimenez, Robert and Moncada. It wouldn't surprise me if Hahn sees both Abreu and Avi as part of the core, going into their window of contention. I'm not a big fan of having the entire team be kids. They are going to need some leadership. It would be hard to go out and bring in another veteran, who would be as effective in that role. But then, I guess most of you have already concluded the same thing.

I agree that Moncada needs all the at bats he can get, if the clock is going to be running, on his service time. Next year is a chance to see just what he can and cannot do. It's way to soon to think of platooning him. In fact, I don't see him as ever being a guy who would be platooned. Of course, that does not preclude having him hit left handed, exclusively.

While we're making out possible lineups, for next year, I'd like to pencil in Yolmer at 3RD base, vs. RHP pitching. You know that I've always loved him, and he is making a believer out of the skeptics. He doesn't hit much, right handed, but from the other side of the plate, he's good enough to start, given his great defense. This year, in 338 AB's, he is hitting .269 with an OBP of .327 and a Slugging % of .412. I think that we're all a little surprised at how strong his arm is, but he has made some very impressive throws from third. Let Davidson play 3RD vs. LHP and DH vs. RHP. Delmonico should get a shot in LF, especially vs RHP. They need a LH power bat, as I'm always wont to point out.

Our Ken Berry, didn't sing and dance, but he won a couple of Gold Gloves and even made the 1967 All Star team, despite batting just .241 and collecting only 25 XBH, the entire season.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 7, 2017 -> 08:14 PM) Is Engel potentially as good a hitter as Ken Berry? Yes, he is probably as good of a hitter as Ken Berry was, but with more power and speed. Berry was a career .255 hitter, with an OBP of .308. However, his first 500 at bats were about like Engel's, so far. Berry was a great defensive centerfielder, but he was not as fast, so he had less range than Adam does. He was not quite as athletic as Engel, either. Although Berry brought back his share of balls headed for the bullpen, in old Comiskey Park, I'm not sure that he could have made some of those leaping and diving plays that Adam has made. The question is; can a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder, with below average offensive skills, still play on a contending team, in today's game of baseball? Perhaps not, but I could live with it. There are 8 other guys in the lineup. Let them produce the runs, while your Gold Glover saves them.

Back to the topic of this thread; In a previous post, I whimsically dreamed of what a terrific player he'd be, if he could hit even .250, with an OBP of .330, or better and hit 20 - 25 homers. After watching all of the Youtube videos of some of his catches, from his college days to the present, I'm willing to lower my expectations for his offense. Even if he hit .230 with an OBP of .300 and 15 homers, it would be worth it to keep him in CF. Add in a few doubles and stolen bases and he would be productive enough to bat 9TH, while playing Gold Glove defense. I've always embraced the old baseball adage, which calls for strength up the middle. Give me great defense behind the plate, at the keystone combo and centerfield, with great pitching. Let the offense come from the corners. This team is going to have productive offense from 2ND, with Moncada and maybe from SS, if Anderson can get back on track. The Sox might even have productive offense from their receivers, if Collins pans out. Why not give Engel a chance to round out his game a little, at least until Robert is ready?

Well, if Engel doesn't make the team, perhaps "Da Bears" could use him: