scenario

BREAKING NEWS: Peavy still wants A-Gone! Smell that? Smells like it's time for another three-team trade fairytale rumor to run with SoxNot. Joe Cowley's twitter Somebody explain to me why this pathetic excuse for a journalist believes pissing off a large group of fans of the team he covers for a living is a good idea.

Not sure if this was posted earlier... if so, sorry for the repeat... Gavin Floyd, Daniel Cabrera, Carlos Torres and Daniel Hudson are scheduled to pitch two innings apiece against the Dodgers in Tuesday's "B" game

From Saturday notes in the Trib by Mark Gonzalez... Guillen watched Daniel Cabrera closely, while pitching coach Don Cooper observed left-hander Erick Threets and Sergio Santos. Santos, who was an infielder as recently as last year, has displayed an uncanny knack for throwing strikes consistently If Santos is throwing strikes consistently, that is very good news.

Nothing wrong with applying stats appropriately. (By the way, I'm a finance digithead math junkie by career, so I am in no way an anti-stats guy.) It's just that I believe using advanced stats in the lower minors as the basis for making decisions on players is not a good idea (for the reasons I mentioned in my last post). For example... Let's look at the player situation we're discussing... Your review of Mitchell's low A-ball stats were leading you to suggest he should probably repeat at Kanny. Soon after, we're hearing how he's probably going to be starting the season in AA. Would the stats have supported that decision? Obviously not. Should we conclude the team is making a mistake? Dunno... But I think it's likely that the Sox decided his skills/tools are ready for AA competition... regardless of what his low A-ball numbers might suggest. My point is simply that the same logic would (and should) hold true in most cases with players below the AA level.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 11:43 AM) More or less validity than batting average? If less validity, how do you figure? IMO, advanced stats are not particularly useful for evaluating players below the AA level. There are just too many variables (inconsistencies in competition, talent, ballparks, small samples, etc. etc.) to determine whether the info they provide is valid. My rule of thumb... Below AA... tools and player development evaluations >>> stats. AA and higher... stats are increasingly useful for evaluations and comparisons.

Then again, it could just be speculation by Merkin on where Mitchell will end up.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 02:27 AM) He also had a .453! BABIP and a 34.8! K%. He was a combination of very lucky and bad and it leaves everything thinking that he was actually good. The BB% was very good (16.5%), but that's it. Luck adjusted line? .239/.371/.361. All those things may be true... but he's still probably going to start the season in Winston-Salem. Besides, I don't think BABIP has much validity/weight in the low minors.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 07:58 AM) I get the impression that Cabrera is going to be a reliever with the Sox, if he's anything. That slot will be Marquez or Shirek. And I wouldn't be surprised to see one of Harrell, Torres or Hynick traded away in a minor deal to a team desperate for an arm during Spring Training. Good points. I forgot about Marquez when I was typing up my list. I think the overload of arms will likely end up in somebody moving. And if they are trying to get Cabrera to focus getting one pitch down the middle of the plate, he probably is destined for the pen.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 08:19 AM) Just for fun... the lowest ranked prospect that is in the Sox system is Kevin Dubler (catcher), who is ranked #2008 out of 2029 total. And of course they had to misspell his name too... (Kelvin?) Just for an extra dose of disrespect. 2008. Kelvin Dubler, C, CHW

Looks like our AAA rotation could be: Hudson Harrell Torres Cabrera Hynick If so, should be a good season for Charlotte.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Feb 25, 2010 -> 04:22 PM) That might end up being one of the best trades in Seattle history. It was a 12-player 3-team deal with the Mariners, Tribe, and Mets. The Indians were the small player in the trade getting Valbuena from Seattle and Smith from the Mets. Here's the summary... December 11, 2008: Franklin Gutierrez was traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Cleveland Indians to the Seattle Mariners. The Seattle Mariners sent Sean Green, J.J. Putz and Jeremy Reed to the New York Mets. The Seattle Mariners sent Luis Valbuena to the Cleveland Indians. The New York Mets sent Ezequiel Carrera (minors), Maikel Cleto (minors), Mike Carp, Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman and Jason Vargas to the Seattle Mariners. The New York Mets sent Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians.

And who did Cleveland get in return for him? Luis Valbuena and Joe Smith Not one of Mark Shapiro's finer moments.

The reasons for my Bellamy comment... - The Sox giving him time in the AFL last fall - The fact that he has great control - And he has a deceptive motion that results in alot of strikeouts We have quite a few live arms in camp, but you know how Ozzie is about relievers walking people. Could be a war of attrition.

I think Kyle Bellamy could be a big surprise in camp.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 24, 2010 -> 11:28 AM) Hope you don't mind, scenario, but I added a poll to your thread - who do you think will win the spot, at this point? We can re-ask in late March when we've narrowed it down. Great idea. Don't mind at all.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 10:20 PM) Looking at PitchFX data; Poreda threw 13 fastballs in that game (no runners reached base on him so I assume they were all from the windup), the average velocity on his fastball was 92.35 MPH with a max speed of 93.6. For reference: Jenks and Thornton were both clocked at about 95/96 (avg/max) in that same game. IIRC, the Sox were having Poreda pitch out of the stretch pretty much all the time in his major league relief appearances.... trying to simplify his mechanics.

Poreda is high 90's out of the windup and low 90's out of the stretch. The reason you remember the low 90's is the game situations he was brought into resulted in him pitching out of the stretch.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 06:33 PM) 1. Shelby is the one who really strikes me as having fallen off the map. He wasn't horrible last year, but he's not exactly a youngster anymore, either...and he's never seemed to have found one position on the diamond. I guess there's an outside possibility he makes it as a super-utility guy like a Willie Harris that can play multiple positions and pinch run. 2. CJ Retherford has gotten about as much discussion as anyone in our system, but it's pretty clear the scouts don't see him as much of a prospect. 1. Shelby had a rough year. But he's still only 24... and probably will be in AAA this year. Regarding his positions... he's an outfielder... it's the only thing he's played the last two years... splitting time between CF and LF. And he has alot more pop in his bat than Willie Harris ever dreamed of. 2. Retherford is never going to make any major prospect lists... because he was undrafted.... he's short... doesn't have a classic ballplayer type body... he didn't really have a position in college... he was hurt most of his senior year. It's sort of like the perfect storm of factors leading to 'no-respect'. But that doesn't mean he lacks talent. His play at all levels of the minors seems to illustrate that there's something there. Obviously he's made a good impression on some people. Now, he's in the major league training camp playing for a shot at a major league roster. So who knows?

Santos making huge strides on the mound (mlb.com article) I'm anxious to hear about Sergio Santos' development this spring. If they can harness him in a little, he could be really really interesting. He was rated as having the second best fastball in the Arizona Fall League... only behind Strasburg.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 04:21 PM) Got the Baseball America Prospect Guide in the mail today... Brandon Allen is listed as number 4 for Arizona, Aaron Poreda is number 10 and Dexter Carter is number 28 for San Diego. And Chris Carter is listed as #1 for the A's.

An excerpt of a training camp update from the Trib's Mark Gonzalez... White Sox update: Cabrera presents a puzzle Sunny and dry weather allowed the White Sox's pitchers and catchers to perform all their work outside. Much attention was given to pitchers Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera, at 6-foot-9 and 260 pounds, is an enigma to the Sox. Cabrera throws 97 mph. But he's been plagued by wildness, as evidenced by his 51 walks in 42 innings with Washington and Arizona last season. "I want him to worry about one pitch - fastball right in the middle of the plate and then take care of the rest,'' manager Ozzie Guillen said. "I don't see why this kid with that kind of arm is bouncing around all over the place. "Maybe too much coaching. Trying to be perfect. Too much stuff. Here, our philosophy is throw as hard as you can, try to hit the middle of the plate and go for it.'' Cabrera is a non-roster invitee competing with the likes of Sergio Santos and Freddy Dolsi for the final spot in the bullpen

Dontrelle Willis has been telling Damon what a great organization the Tigers have. Well ****... what is Dontrelle expected to say? If somebody grossly overpaid me for doing absolutely nothing I'd be thrilled too.

I love the part about him being "at peace" with getting a one-year deal. Somebody beat this man with a self-awareness stick please.

"I want to finish my career as a Tiger." Summary: Damon professes his love for the Tigers organization... describes how he always wanted to be a Tiger, etc. Excuse me while I go take a shower because I now feel unclean after typing (and reading) this tripe... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Little did anyone know just how much Damon always wanted the day to arrive that he would put on a Detroit uniform. But after signing a one-year contract for $8 million, followed by his first news conference, he insisted he's hoped for years it would happen. Damon even said he wanted to sign with the Tigers as a free agent when he signed with the Yankees instead. He also said when it became clear this winter he would not return to the Yankees, the Tigers were his choice -- even before they knew it. "Sorry if you didn't know," Damon said with a laugh to general manager/president Dave Dombrowski while the two spoke to the media. Why Detroit? Because Damon feels the Tigers have a chance to win. "The sky is the limit," he said. "We have someone who can win the Cy Young Award and someone can win the MVP award. "But most importantly, if things go well, we can win a lot of games." Because Lakeland is close to his Orlando home, he can take his kids to school before a workout and pick them up after. Because his father, "who doesn't travel any more", can watch him play in spring training. "My family played a big part in this," Damon said. Because he has a high regard for Jim Leyland. "He's a Hall of Fame manager who warrants respect," Damon said. "Getting a call from him (three days ago) was very important. He said he'd love to have me, that I would be great for the kids." Because he knows many of the Tigers players -- and likes them. "It's going to be an easy transition," Damon said. "They've made me feel at home already. Over the years, I've gotten to know a lot of these guys." And, without Damon saying so, he signed with Detroit because the Tigers' offer turned out to be the best -- although a two-year offer was never there for him to accept or reject. "We tried to work it out to be a two-year contract," he said. "It was talked about and I was ready to jump on it. But I'm at peace with this. I'm O.K. with one year. There's a good chance to be back. "Contrary to some reports out there that my wife preferred Chicago, this is where I wanted to be and she supports me. "I've been going to Detroit the last 15 years. It's a great city. She was onboard from day one about this."

QUOTE (The Beast @ Feb 19, 2010 -> 02:20 PM) Here's a question for everyone in the thread - how did your first love break up with you? I dated a girl for almost 2 years in high school. Then I went away to college. She wrote me a letter about 2 months later to tell me she was pregnant... and that it wasn't mine. Sort of a sh***y way to end a relationship, but effective.