scenario

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jan 1, 2010 -> 05:21 PM) Yes: I'm not familiar with WAB but I'm guessing it's at least somewhat similar to WAR. You can read the full study here: http://philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf Good article. Thanks for posting it. I found the conclusion particularly interesting. In conclusion, the ranking of a hitting prospect seems to be a good indicator of future value. A pitching prospect’s ranking has not had quite the same effect. There has been no separation in performance between pitching prospects rated in the top 50. In fact, pitching prospects ranked from 11-50 have performed slightly better than top 10 pitching prospects. However, there does appear to be a clear drop off in performance between top 50 pitchers and pitchers ranked from 51-100. Hitters in each sub group perform better than the pitchers in their sub group. In fact, hitters ranked 51-75 have performed better than any group of pitchers in the top 50. An expanded look at the performance of top 100 prospects has further reinforced my belief that teams should be using more of their pitching prospects to trade for established major league players. There is definite profit available for teams that acquire players in their arbitration years for top pitching prospects.

Good for him. With all the time and hard work players put in to get to the majors, it's nice when they have an opportunity to have a 'moment'.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 30, 2009 -> 08:24 PM) Supposedly the Tigers have some interest. Yep. He was spotted at a hotel in Detroit this week. I don't think too many people visit Detroit during the winter for pleasure.

I'd love to have Carter back in our system. But if Quentin stays healthy then trading Carter to get him should go down as one of the all-time great trades for the Sox.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 28, 2009 -> 12:31 PM) Well, if you have been reading and learning from Ozzieball and Qwerty here, it seems that using UZR for one year is not a great method of assessing a player's defensive ability, but instead, his value. It seems to me that UZR measures the value each player had at his position, rather than what type of ability he has. A guy such as Ben Zobrist may have had more defensive value at 2b this season than Chase Utley, and yet, Utley still may have more ability. From what I understand, you would want to compare several years of UZR numbers before you start building a profile for ability. I agree with you though, there are some really radical departures (and arrivals) from year-to-year when it comes to UZR in regards to certain players. The best thing is probably to look at the numbers over a 3-5 year period before you start getting a fair idea of a player's defensive ability. Thanks for clarifying. I'm not trying to pick on anyone with my comments. I love it when people add statistical data to support their arguments. However, while reading through the thread I saw quite a few posts that seem to be judging or commenting on players' defensive ability... most of them based on single-year (2009) UZR numbers. And I just wanted to add my two cents on how UZR can be misleading when used that way. In general, I think everybody's contributions are making for a great conversation that will help posters understand the topic better.

UZR is a very useful stat. The 'problem' IMO is people using UZR in situations where it isn't appropriate. For example... using 1-year UZR (alone) to compare the supposed defensive abilities of two players is ridiculous. There is simply too much variability in year-to-year UZR values to make that type of analysis meaningful.

QUOTE (gfbaseball @ Dec 27, 2009 -> 10:40 PM) I'm not too sure about Thompson getting fast tracked to the majors. I watched him the last couple weeks in Great Falls this year and he didn't look very settled in the outfield and pretty timid at the plate. Granted, he was fresh out of high school and probably still wide eyed after only a month in the minors. Rumors I heard around Great Falls at the end of the season was that he was probably coming back to Great Falls to be the starting center fielder next year. That would be a good move for him, get him settled into one location for a couple months and see how he does, heck he's only 19, he'll be fun to watch next year. Welcome to the board and thanks for your input.

Hope you have a great birthday!

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 25, 2009 -> 11:49 PM) Yeah, well unfortunately it's the best statistic we have right now so it's going to keep coming up. The alternative is relying solely on our subjective memory, which we know is almost completely inaccurate from decades of psychological research. I agree that we need better statistical measures for defense than UZR, but at the moment, I'd much rather rely completely on UZR than on our own unsupported opinions. But the choice isn't "UZR" vs. "subjective memory and unsupported opinions". UZR is a very valuable concept... when used properly. But small-samples of UZR data (for example single-year player or team UZR figures) don't provide the basis for a meaningful analysis. (ex. comparing two players, or teams, etc.) In fact, one-year figures are often misleading, and may lead to conclusions less accurate than 'good ol' subjective opinions'.

QUOTE (hogan873 @ Dec 25, 2009 -> 09:21 AM) Merry Christmas everyone! +1

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Dec 24, 2009 -> 12:53 AM) Burls and Garland? Both worthy but... nope.

Quick trivia question: In 2005, two White Sox players were in the top 15 in the voting for the AL MVP. Who were they?

Javy's going to love that short right field porch in NY. I could see him leading AL pitchers in giving up homeruns next year.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Dec 20, 2009 -> 10:50 AM) Well, yeah, but people don't have short memories when it comes to sucking. They'll always remember the failures. Excitement over something positive, though, tends to wear off more quickly than does frustration over something negative. Exactly. I call it FADS: Fan Attention Deficit Syndrome. The perception of positive moves only last until the next time you lose a game. But perceived negative moves last forever.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 07:28 PM) I was thinking he'd be a good AAA pick up for the past two years. Here's his profile...Jason Botts KW's big move at DH?

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 04:20 PM) Local radio is saying the offer is 5 years. I've read a couple of things since that suggest the Cardinals camp is offering 5 years. So, the 8-year "offer" is probably something that originated in the Boras camp... then got fed to the media.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 09:18 PM) I'm completely uneducated on this subject, but is it common for major league players to play in Winter League? (Rios, Garcia) Is it a way of them to come back to form, does the organization send them or is it up to the player? There are several reasons you see it, including... 1. It seems some players are automatically named on rosters for teams in their home countries. It doesn't mean they're going to play. (For example, Pudge Rodriguez's name seems to show up on a Puerto Rico roster most years. Dominican MLB players' names seem to show up on DR teams, etc.) 2. Guys who had short seasons due to injury often are sent to winter ball to get innings or at-bats. 3. Players who are on the bubble roster-wise (for example, almost out of options, etc.) often are sent to winter ball so teams can get another look at them before making a decision. 4. Young pitchers who are looking to refine control or add a pitch are often given time in winter lball to figure it out before spring training. Sometimes organizations mandate the moves. Other times, marginal players opt to go on their own to improve their chance of making a roster or audition for jobs. But you don't often see successful pros play a full winter season. Most guys want the winter off.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 05:42 PM) Quentin put up a .960 OPS in April, in no world is that 'bad'. Yep. He started out the year on fire. He had 7 homeruns in our first 12 games.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 03:49 PM) They've totally debunked the myth that you can't contend every year AND have a strong farm. It's called good scouting, large budgets, and a willingness to pay over slot. You can build a farm system in a hurry if you're willing to throw money at it.

Holy Schnikes. That's a huge contract offer if true. The Cardinals have intensified discussions with the lead representative for free agent Matt Holliday and on Monday "tweaked" a standing offer they hope will allow them to retain the left fielder for at least eight seasons. General manager John Mozeliak and agent Scott Boras revisited the framework of the Cardinals' lengthy proposal first tendered last Wednesday. Though both parties refuse to discuss details, the deal is worth around $16 million a season, making it easily the most lucrative deal ever offered by the Cardinals.

QUOTE (hitlesswonder @ Dec 14, 2009 -> 10:21 PM) I think that's a big consideration here. Rios obviously had a couple of very good years in TOR. But he hasn't been that player for 2 full years now. I'm not real optimistic that the Sox are going to help him figure out how to recreate 2007. Coop can't fix him... Two full years?? In 2008, he hit 47 doubles... 5th in MLB. And his 70 extra-base hits put him in the top 10 in MLB that year. Not a bad year even if it wasn't as good as 2006-7.

Halladay is willing to sign an extension. Lee wants to test the market. Sounds like the Phils want the sure thing. And whoever said this is a 'lateral move' for the Phillies.... what??? Halladay over Lee anyday... Take advantage of Lee's recent success and move him.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Dec 13, 2009 -> 01:42 PM) Can I change to "Die Sox White Fan" how do I do this...is it somewhere in my controls or does a mod have to. Or do i just have to completely restart and lose postcount Send a PM to one of the Admins and ask them to do it for you.

Carrasco has made no secret of his desire to be a starter the past couple of years. I can picture that he and his agent figure this may be his last chance... coming off a decent year... to attract an interested team that might give him a shot at starting. And I can picture KW letting him go to pursue it, since we have other reliever options. The more I think about it, the more sense it makes.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Carrasco end up in the National League as a back-of-the-rotation starter for somebody.