Dick Allen

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:37 PM) Ok, yeah, you filtered by BA Title Qualification. That's fine, but it misses a crapton of rookies and players that spent decent time on the DL, both good and bad. I think it's more accurate to go with a lower threshold. I don't think 50 PAs is a good sample size.

More coffee boys. Had nothing to do with the campaign.

Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:56 PM) Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive. Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order? Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally? Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position? Heres' where I got it. 107 is Yolmer Sanchez. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:39 PM) You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player. That's where I am getting it. Steamer actually has him at 2.6 not that it matters much, but he played in 27 games in 2016 and put up a 0.7. So if he played a full season, he was well on his way to well above average then. Was well above average in 2015, and after missing a lot time he came back last year and was above average. In fact, only 9 MLB 3B had a higher wRC+ than he did. I believe defensively he can bounce back. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't great. Many think another year away from his surgery will improve his defense, which will only make his WAR rise.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:21 PM) I'm not taking Noah for a top 8 protected pick. Not worth it. If the pick is unprotected, I'll take it. The Knicks make more money than the Bulls, and they aren't winning anything the next 2 seasons. I really doubt they do anything but buy him out or release him or trade him for someone else's just as expensive garbage. Giving up a pick to get rid of him makes no sense.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:24 PM) When you have a cheap core in place, you’re goal should be to maximize production and not value. And it’s hard to optimize production when you’re locking in league average players in your biggest potential area for improvement. 8.8,7.6,5.0 Donaldson's fWAR the last 3 years. Looks like he is trending down. Still great, but who knows. You want to sign him next year. If he signed for 5 years, there is a really good chance league average would be his level at some point. If you sign Manny Machado for 10 years, there is a pretty good chance he will be league average at some point.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:20 PM) A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild. He isn't league average.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:05 PM) It’s not so much that we want them to go with plan B but that we are holding realistic expectations on how they will proceed given past ownership decisions. I have no doubt they are going to be bringing guys in and paying a hefty sum to do so, I’m just highly skeptical they will extend themselves to the top 3-5 guys in any FA class (esp when those guys demand upwards of $150M). I just feel the amount of money they will spend will not be unlimited. If you get the price you like on Moustakas take it. A good time to buy a winter jacket is the spring or summer. You don't get the newest style, but you may get a great deal on a coat that gets the job done. If a discounted Moustakas means you don't have money for Machado or Donaldson next year, you weren't a player anyway. Some posters are talking out of both sides of their mouths. No money committed, can sign all these guys, but wait, don't sign this guy, then you have settled. No. The Sox would have the fallback in place, and supposedly a lot of funds for other needs including Machado and Donaldson. That said, I don't think it is going to happen. Other than these random reports this winter, I have seen no actual linkage between Moustakas and the White Sox. You would have to figure something would come out. Obviously different times with different dollar amounts, but the White Sox prior to the 1981 season did sign Jim Essian as a free agent to be their catcher. Then Carlton Fisk became available, and they signed him. If the Sox signed a better 3B, Moustakas could move to another team or to DH or play 1B on occassion.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:45 PM) But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan. Plus, you have to supplement every year. And that costs a lot of money.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:40 PM) I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading. The Cubs can print money. Others can't. Their run probably lasts a bit longer. What will be interesting is how much White Sox revenues increase if they go on a run. What will they be able to afford etc. Ricketts the other day mentioned the Cubs may remain with the White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks when their TV deal expires in 2019, which is good for the Sox. They would get a piece of the revenue the station makes off of the Cubs.

Trump wants Sessions to investigate why Obama didn't investigate Russian meddling. LOL. Trump playbook to a tee. It's always someone else who needs to be investigated for something he did.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:31 AM) You know people talk about relegation and how that works for EPL. We are so tied to this "worst team should get best pick" system, and I think it works for NFL/MLB (I do! Not as bad as NBA)/NHL, but basketball has zero depth element to its drafts. You don't get a great draft by finding 3-4 top talents like football, you get a great draft when you either get a top 5 pick or back into a talent. So basically what I'm saying is, maybe we reward a team for being the best of the rest. Have an actual sudden death tournament for non-playoff teams where the winner gets top pick, the runner up gets 2nd, and the worst team is guaranteed at least 3rd. It would prevent just running a bare bones team, you could even seed where the best of the worst get a more favorable seeding, so incentive to not suck. And while giving the team that wins the more valuable pick, you could allocate more cap space for up to 3 years for the worst 5 teams to try and get them to spend out of it. Another thing especially in other sports beside the NBA, is draft like a fantasy draft. You have the last pick in round 1, you get the first pick in round 2.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:52 AM) I agree, and it sucks for the players too. Robin Lopez doesn't get to play basketball forever. He is clearly the best center on the team, plays his ass off every night, and this is the pinnacle of everything he's worked for (playing in NBA). But the team, which has no body-aging constraints, basically just wants to sim the rest of the season, so he sits. It just sucks. It's just hard to think of a solution. The only one I can think of is put all non playoff teams in a draft lottery with equal chances and whatever order the ping pong balls come , that is where you select. No top 3 protection or anything like that. That way, it doesn't matter if you win 15 games or miss the playoffs by 1. There still is incentive to make the playoffs. Extra revenue and you still could get a mediocre mid first round pick. I think bad teams will be better just because. It may not get them titles, but the NBA is probably the league with the fewest franchises being able to show off a trophy than any. Even with the top pick, there is luck involved. You could be picking when Lebron is available or get Pervis Ellison.

It would be really nice to have a guy like this bust out. He looks like a DH to me, but I'm thinking he's going to hit.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:27 AM) Just to clarify: I certainly do not think that Moustakas is a better player than Machado. However, I'm not sure that Machado is a better value, at $35 Million, per year, than Moustakas, at $12 Million per year. Those numbers are merely speculation, but they illustrate my point. A lot of other stuff would go into a Machado signing. The PR alone is probably worth something. But they have to be realistic. It isn't like they will be up against the Padres and Braves to sign him. It's going to be the big guys. And it may even be a team that loses out on Harper thinking well we did allocate these funds, why don't we just add him, and make him fit on their team. I know the White Sox are not operating like they used to. But I still fail to see how anyone can be optimistic about their chances of signing him. And then you move on to Donaldson, who is a heck of a player, but will be older, more expensive, and does have some personality issues. If Moustakas' price drops to where it makes sense to have him on the roster for a worthless season, you can re-allocate all that money on other, sure to be there, holes.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:23 AM) It doesn't. Even if you add a $30 million AAV to our 2019 roster, you're still looking at under triple digits in terms of team payroll. We all know that Jerry is willing to go (and has gone) far above that number when we're trying to compete. The problem is, guys if they are as great as we hope, start to become more expensive in a couple of seasons, and they have to keep an eye out for that.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:14 AM) So what's your point? My point is, first you used incorrect numbers. Second, he's probably entering an area where he is a good buy. Most projections have him between 2.5 and 3.0 WAR for 2018. He was 10th for 3B in wRC+, a stat you find important. The top 9 aren't available for a second round draft pick. If the White Sox are being realistic about signing Manny Machado, and I would love if they did, it means they have a ton of money to spend. Moustakas at a discount, shouldn't hurt adding more players. They are going to need several when it is all said and done. Moustakas can play 1B and DH as well, and could be a replacement down the road for a guy like Abreu. Someone whose WAR and wRC+ trended down until his age 30 season. If signing Manny Machado means the White Sox will not be able to add other big pieces, they are screwed anyway.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:11 AM) Are you suggesting that Moustakas is better than Machado? No, but offensively, last season he was.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:03 AM) I was just looking at Machado's split stats, as you posted this. Not only was his year not as productive as Moustakas', but he only hit 11 HR's, on the road, compared to Moose's 24. Baltimore is a much better park, in which to hit homers, than Kauffman Stadium. I suspect that Moustakas would put up some pretty good numbers, in Chicago. I'm not going to kid myself in thinking Moustakas is better than Machado, although offensively he was last year. I do think Machado is going to put up huge numbers, is elite defensively, can probably play SS and is far younger. But if Moustakas' price drops, there has to be a number where you just say yes, instead of just listing reasons not to. The odds of the Sox signing Machado, IMO, are slim. Maybe they do it. But adding talent to this roster is the mode the Sox need to be in. As long as it won't effect adding others to the roster, that's great. At least for 2 years, it's a far cheaper option than adding Matt Kemp as long as the Dodgers sent along a prospect. Something, several posters were in favor of.

QUOTE (turnin' two @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:59 AM) That's all well and good, but mostly they offered the most money. It's always nice when they go through all the other reasons, but money is usually the determining factor. I don't blame them at all, but I'm with you, that story ends with the Padres offered him the most money.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:39 AM) 2.2 fWAR is an average player. He's coming off a year where his wRC+, the best statistic for measuring total offensive production (which is league, park, and era-adjusted) was 107th best in the MLB. Last year, in his age 29 season, he wasn't even a top 100 hitter. Now we're talking about needing him to be in the middle of our order in his age 31-33 seasons. That would be a 55 team WAR if multiplied by 25. If that is what 25 average players gets you, let's get 25 average players. According to fangraphs, his wRC+ was 62nd. That's top 2 or 3 on a team. Yolmer Sanchez was 107. So by your post, Yolmer isn't the answer.. Manny Machado wasn't as good offensively as Moustakas last year. I am sure most of us will be doing cartwheels if the Sox give him $300 million plus in the next 10 months.

Reading Hahn's comments, I think they would sign him, but only at their price, and chances of Boras going there are about next to zero. Boras usually pulls something out at the end. Maybe there will be a spring training injury, but Moustakas is definitely a guy who should have a job. The downside of hiring Boras is he can get you more than others, but his elevated demands backfire occassionally.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 08:29 PM) No, there will be a grace year to show "progress." After the last couple of years of poor records, they just need to show "improvement" which really shouldn't be tough. Normally, I would agree, but they are on coach #3 after Lovie, who got fired after 10-6, and they haven't been over .500 since. And only .500 once. 4 straight seasons of double digit losses. If Trubisky doesn't step up and look like a franchise QB next year, and the Bears go 6-10 or 5-11, or 7-9, or even 8-8, I believe there is going to be a lot of push back. The NFL doesn't usually have 4 or 5 year rebuilds. Too much turnover with age, money and injury.

Also like the kid in FL snapping back at Donny Jr. who claims the kid's ex FBI father is feeding him lines. I guess Donny forgot about his meeting with Russians in Trump Tower, and what daddy told him to say. Adoption.