iamshack

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 06:48 PM) Worst thing about this is that we likely won't have any solid confirmation until after the World Series. Why is that?

So much for the sealed bid thing?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:04 AM) In a 7 game series that's the right move. Especially since their bullpen is in pretty good shape.

Sounds like it will be Nolasco tonight.

So do the Dodgers go with Nolasco tonight or Kershaw on short rest again?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 08:37 AM) The rule of thumb with this is 75%, but I would guess that this percentage has gone down in recent years. It's harder for a runner on 1B to score than it was 10 years ago and I would guess that that percentage has gone down at a greater clip than scoring a run with a runner on 2B (because while it's harder to get just 1 hit, it's even harder to actually string together 2 hits). I'm guessing De Aza was basically a break even, if not slightly productive, base stealer this year. Yeah, with less home runs and extra base hits, the value of a successful stolen base should increase, thus decreasing the threshold at which one is successful would be considered a net positive.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 08:24 AM) Arguing specific flaws or shortcomings of specific statistical tests is fun, but the dismissal of others is just annoying. SS2K5, the idea that stats need to be tweaked doesn't mean they aren't good measures. It means they are improving measures, with flaws - like every statistic in any sport. That doesn't make them worthless. And yes, one can be a bad baserunner (which DeAza was this year at least), but have enough speed to make an overall positive impact on the bases. But on the flip side, people got hugely frustrated with DeAza, and the mistakes are more amplified than the successes. Furthermore, the value within any equation of a given event is not not an exact science. So there is no need to dismiss people's frustrations at them. It also can be an indicator of future problems, because as DeAza ages, he can lean on that speed less, and has to have better instincts. Why is that differentiation so hard for people? Why does this stat have to be useless or perfect? Agreed. And let's keep in mind here...the reason the folks who have worked on the advanced stats have been doing so is because those that we had for so long left so much to be desired. They sought to create better, more representative statistics and data, because they viewed the old ones as rudimentary. It follows that those same folks would continue to try and tweak the data year after year in an effort to improve it, because that has been their goal all along - better statistics and data. To suggest that because they continue to try and fine-tune things more, the data they have developed should be disregarded, is just foolish.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 08:16 AM) From what I have seen, Garcia would be out there over De Aza in a heartbeat. Granted at this point it is limited samplesize. I'm not really sure you'd get an argument from anyone here if you went with Garcia. That doesn't really follow though that because Garcia may be a better baserunner than De Aza, that therefore De Aza should be jettisoned this offseason. The argument I have seen is that De Aza is SO BAD on the bases, that he should be discarded. It seems like that would be done just out of personal frustration moreso than anything else. This is like when Contreras used to annoy the s*** out of Hawk with his walks. He'd throw like 120 pitches in 6 1/3 innings with 5 walks. Hawk would be so frustrated. But then you look at the scoreboard and he's given up 1 ER and 2 hits to go with those 5 walks. So what, we're going to just dump him because he's a pain in the ass to watch?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 08:08 AM) I just dont think that is really the argument. Of course you would pinch run him right there. I think the argument is pretty much "Is De Aza a good baserunner?" I say no. I watched him all season make one bonehead mistake after another, and not learn from it. There may be a statistic that says he is a positive on the basepaths, but it is really hard to agree with that after watching him this past season. If you go back to posts from last night, we all conceded he is not a good baserunner. The argument is does he bring value on the bases regardless of his idiotic mistakes? The answer to that is yes, and it's almost certainly all due to his above-average speed.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 07:39 AM) As opposed to you flat out telling me that these statistics are so accurate, that people have to meet annually to fix them, but that there can't be any bias or error in the statistics related to something that they aren't quantifying correct? Please. Look, I'm all for being reasonable here...and surely many advanced statistics are not perfectly fine-tuned. But to dismiss them outright because there may be some flaws is ridiculous. I don't know why you seem to be holding on to this line of reasoning because we all know you are smarter than that. Let me put it this way. If we were in a postseason game, tied, in the 9th inning, and PK singles or doubles with less than two outs, and you have De Aza on the bench...would you not pinch run him for PK?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 05:51 PM) When you have a season that is that bad, it cancels out value. Outs on the bases kill teams and games. I disagree...do you work with any guys that are brilliant but lazy or unmotivated? Yes, they're not reaching their maximum potential but they're still better than a lot of other guys because of their ability. It just seems like you're making an incredibly arbitrary decision because he annoys you.

As for the linear weights argument, it's pretty much just math, guys. It's used because it's math, and math works. And for De Aza, he's NOT a good runner of the bases, as that phrase or skill is commonly understood to mean. But he's still fast! And those two things are not mutually exclusive. A runner can be of average speed or even slow but still be a good base runner. A runner can have blazing speed but still be a terrible base runner. But when you add up the speed ability and the technique/baseball IQ, you can still have someone that creates value as a runner but still not be a particular good "runner of the bases" as we commonly understand the phrase.

I think it's pretty clear that the hangup is about the mental errors with ADA. He's value lies a lot in his speed, which people are hesitant to give him credit for since it's an inherent skill which people view him as having little or nothing to do with. The mental errors are conscious decisions he makes, and so people are going to hold those against him very harshly. But as some have said, you can live with the stupid mistakes because he brings value elsewhere. Whether that value comes from him being an outstanding athlete or the smartest, most intuitive player ever, it doesn't matter. Would you like him to be smarter? Yes, of course. But regardless of how frustrating he may be, you can't base your decision on that

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 10:27 AM) f*** off My apologies, didn't read the story before posting that. Didn't realize it was a 2 year old from Kyle's post. Also didn't realize the severity of it. The comment was in bad taste.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 10:04 AM) How f***ing stupid would you have to be to beat APs kid? Have you seen that man? He is one solid muscle, and he routinely collides at high speeds with +300 lb men for a living. Deadspin is saying it isnt his kid though. Im not quite sure what to believe edit: http://deadspin.com/adrian-petersons-son-h...iend-1443881283 so, it was a out of wedlock kid. Not AP jr. Not expected to survive, absolutely terrible Hmm...time to go bet on the Panthers this week?

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 10:14 AM) We have two back-up systems, but the problem is it'll cost more to have IT people come get the backup stuff loaded back onto our server (on top of making sure all of the computers and server are clean). Our IT guy actually said it's easier/cheaper to just pay the ransom and they've been told that security companies have monitored what happens after you pay and it actually does unencrypt the files and uninstalls itself. We got a pre-paid card and provided the information to the hackers via the program. Unfortunately it takes up to 48 hours to verify payment. So that's awesome. Do they promise not to do it again?

I think if you go back and look at Adam's monthly splits over the course of his career, you'll see some months where he was downright terrible. Just like he has been with the White Sox for several months. The difference is, the bad streaks are probably lasting longer or maybe even decrementally worse than before. That's decline due to age or diminishing skills or whatever. Not an aberration. It happens to all baseball players at some point, which essentially is the complete opposite of the definition of aberration. As Eminor said, 2011 is the aberration in that there was virtually no stretch of games in which he hit well. That was an aberration because it was different than virtually every other year Dunn has played.

QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 06:59 AM) Classy Kentuckians keep getting classier. I think a large asteroid hurtling though space would be doing everyone and everything an enormous favor if it hit this planet head on. It's so long overdue. Umm... Ok

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 06:34 AM) Remember how I said there was "way too much malpractice"? Infection in hospitals is a problem that can be significantly reduced simply by following proper procedures. This has been repeatedly established in trials of basic checklist use, for example, but many hospitals have simply treated them as a cost of doing business. I read that book and started implementing the use of checklists on our trade floor a few years back...it reduced our data entry error rate as well as some other administrative errors.

Las Vegas is the best for this...I had these three huge monstrosity Ikea wall units that I needed to get rid of when I was moving. I had barely gotten one out into the driveway when these two dudes came to the door asking if I was giving it away. I said yes, and I have more! They came in and took the rest of the stuff and I didn't have to lift a finger. Of course also knowing Las Vegas, they probably sold them at their own yard sale for $100 a pop.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 12:34 PM) Education shouldn't be a for-profit game though, especially if it's being paid with government funds. So farming/food production shouldn't be either?

I wonder if Jake will thank us now...

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 12:08 PM) Not to discount research, but why is that the responsibility of the tuition paying student? If I was paying tuition, I am paying it to be taught, not so he can go publish papers, research things and add a little to his prestige. Well he sort of needs to do those things to provide you with valuable teachings. This is akin to saying I just want to pay for the ingredients in my actual dinner or my actual drink when you go out to eat. Life doesn't work that way...

QUOTE (Big Hurtin @ Oct 7, 2013 -> 01:43 PM) 4K touch Mac display? http://9to5mac.com/2013/10/07/will-the-mac...mac-looks-like/ It looks pretty cool, but I don't see the practical use that would justify the (probably high) cost. Yeah, I don't see them going to touchscreen on a desktop. They've pointed out (quite correctly) that it is not particularly ergonomic to hold your arms up vertically for long periods of time.

So two new management positions were posted in our trading group today. One is right up my alley. Going to apply. Surprisingly, the other is the OPs and Trading Manager position. Apparently our current manager is being re-assigned (demoted).