JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Or New York

Forget good baserunning even... A 3b with a 800ish OPS paired with very good defense and below average base running is worth $300M on the open market (the average OPS for 3b league wide is nearly identical to 1b this season btw).

Tier A is Cole and Strasburg. The rest are Tier B.

Keuchel would be a fine #4/5. A certain upgrade over the likes of Covey, Detweiler, Banuelos, etc.

I’m not advocating for signing the lowest tier of free agent starting pitchers. Sox should have plenty of cash to pick 2 from the following group: Cole, Madbum, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Strasburg. Any two of those would be a tremendous upgrade to the rotation and the Sox should certainly be able to afford it based on current payroll obligations. Puig would be a fine option for the present black hole in RF and he’d be among fellow Cubans as teammates. Spectacular? No but an immediate and noticeable upgrade over what they’ve put out there this season.

Sign pitching (multiple starters and relievers) and a RF (Puig most likely).

Yes, estimated. Padres season is 73.5% complete. Those two guys stand at 3.0 fWAR currently. My math shows 4.08 fWAR or ~4 fWAR at season’s end based on their current rate of production. If the Sox make two splashy signings this winter (say Madbum and Strasburg because god knows they need starting pitching help), you would be satisfied if those two guys combined for 4 fWAR next season? That’s a very low bar to set for two high profile FA signings.

The problem is they are about to get ~4 fWAR for ~$50M spent this season on their two premier free agent signings in what most would consider their “prime” age seasons. Do you expect their production to increase as they age over the next 6-9 years of their contracts? If this is their production during their prime years and they are only getting ~4 fWAR from two guys that account for ~35-45% of the team payroll, that’s a big problem for the Padres now and in the future.

I thought this thread was about free agency? The only guys mentioned above who were acquired via free agency are Santana, Jay, and Herrera and those three aren’t even in the same stratosphere (total $$$ and AAav) when compared to the Hosmer and Machado signings. Getting two $100M+ signings wrong is crippling for a franchise like SD (or the White Sox for that matter).

Bold doesn’t mean act foolish. The Padres two big signings the last two winters have accounted for 2.9 fWAR this season at a cost of $50M. I don’t think that’s very good value...

Madrigal hit 303 last year. He’s hitting 304 this year. Damn, this kid is consistent. If he’s a 300 hitter in MLB, he’s a 700 OPS even with no power. With his defense and baserunning, that’s a solid 2.5-3 WAR player. And that’s with essentially no extra base hits. Not a bad floor.

They aren’t catching the Dodgers next year either...best case scenario, they are competing for a wild card like the White Sox.

He’s 14th out of 24 qualified MLB 3b in fWAR. This in the first of his “prime” years (age 27, just wait for the last 5 years of that contract ?). How is that anything but a disappointment for a player earning top 5 in the league in both total contract value and AAV?

Sometimes the best signings are the ones not made. Sox dodged a bullet with the Machado monstrosity of a contract. I’d hope they instead put that money towards reinforcing the pitching over the next two winters. It would also be nice to improve the black hole in RF.

Trout’s superfractor sold for $400,000 last year.

350 sure but 400+?

No question he’s a star but do you believe he will maintain a 400+ BABIP next year?

Considering he turns 24 this month, I wouldn’t be opposed to giving him a look in September.

No one answered my post above. His BABIP has dropped a bit but not by much. Still holding at 418. Would that be a modern day record or close to one?

So Lopez is on pace to match his fWAR from last season. If 2.2 is his floor, that’s a damn solid #5.

If it holds, will his current 429 BABIP be a modern day record over a full season (say 500+ PA)? That’s really something. Even Avi during his magical 4.2 fWAR season was only at 392 BABIP.

What would Machado have done for this team this season (and with the way things are going, next season too)? Talk about flushing $30M down the drain...

JK called Dodgers a couple weeks ago I think? That’s the best fit with the Braves acquiring Greene.

Yep

Which would make Colome the best reliever remaining on the market...