Since there wasn't formal scoring in the debates and Bush has been working the past four years, I would say he won the debates. Debates are not Dubya's strength but all he has to do this time is look Presidential and keep it to a draw. As long as he doesn't say something monumentally stupid, he'll be fine.
I think the Bsh campaign has to be wary of the poll numbers. I believe Kerry has the same type of support that Clinton II showed. Asked who they are voting for, people where reluctant, dare I say embarrassed, to admit voting for Clinton so they said Dole. Then a landslide came. Same thing with Kerry, I believe a decent percentage of respondents are saying Bush but will pull Kerry.
Here's a peek at Presidential Campaign politics. The local Dem party here is getting together a big ass pile of cash to woo Kerry to make a sacrificial campaign stop in South Texas. This is an area that Kerry will win with 80-85% of the vote. But how meaningless is that. Texas is solidly behind our favorite son, Dubya. But some would think it will remind Kerry he does have support in Texas, just in case.
Dubya made a campaign stop last time around, promised stuff for the border region and never got around to it, maybe next term