JUGGERNAUT

This is becoming laughable. You obviously don't like the fact that as a RP in 04 Hermanson outperformed Schow as a RP in 03. So now you are stretching it over 02-04. Which I'm sure if I looked at their appearances again Hermie probably has more scoreless innings in relief than Schow. Which is what a RP is all about. ERA is the worst statistic imaginable to measure an RP because it can be distorted so quickly with a few awful appearances. Scoreless appearances is much better. Most good teams can overcome an appearance where an RP gives up a run but more than that usually means a loss. So you have to take that into account as well. On another note, you will probably find this funny. There was an article in the Southtown today on our new rotation. With respect to Jonudy the reporter used "killer instinct of a poodle"

Why would Santana sign a contract with the Twins for anything < than 10 million? Isn't he arbit eligible? What's a Cy Young winner worth in arbit? I can't see it being less than 10M.

G'night all. We can continue this debate at a later time.

Here we go again. What is most important for a RP is not surrendering runs. That's there job. If they need to walk a guy to get that job done so be it. Herm RP 0R 23, 1R 2, 2R 2, 4R 2 He failed 6 out of 29 appearances. I would call that effective. You can scale that to 12 out of 60 to see just how much. SSch RP 03: 0r 39, 1r 10, 2r 7, 3r 1, 4r 2 He failed 20 out of 59 appearances. I don't know if I would call that effective.

SScho: 0r 0, 1r 3, 2r 2, 3r 4, 4r 4, 5r 3, 6r 1, 8r 1, 9r 1 9 qs, 4 nqs, 6 bad starts. 9-10 split. But he went down Aug 4. A 4 month player. The guy has been plagued by injuries his whole career. If you use him as a starter he won't last. If you use him as a reliever he's not as effective. There is a risk with Herm, but I think that risk is less than most NL pitchers because he plays in the NLW. COL is effective at skewing the numbers enough to give a better idea of what they guy will do in the AL. What I like most about Herm's starts is that there is consistency month to month. Apr 2 qs, 1 bad May 3 qs, 1 nqs Jun 3 qs, 2 nqs, 1 bad Jul 3 qs, 2 bad If he were to do that for us in the event El-Duque went down after Jul, that would still give us 6 qs the rest of the way. Only 4 bad starts. We can still win with that.

Let's look at the reality of what it takes to win a division with a 70M payroll. There are 6 months to the season. A team must average 15-16 wins a month. That leaves a cushion of 10-11 loses per month. That's difficult to begin with. If a team has 15 loses in 1 month than it can only afford to lose 5-6 in another month. An even harder task to accomplish. That is why month to month statistics matter. You need to put together a team that is consistent enough in pitching, hitting, & defense to win 15-16 games a month. A player that hit's 324 one month & 182 the next is not going to help you do that. A player that has an era < 4 1 month & an era > 5 the next isn't going to help either. It would be better to have a player that avg's a 4.50 era month to month. Take it a step further. If all 5 starters on the sox average 10 bad starts a year then for the most part that's 50 losses right there. That leaves you with about 20 losses remaining if you want to win a division. If 5R+ is a bad start for a starter, then you need the good majority of his remaining starts to be 3R- to win 92 of the remaining 112. That means fewer than 4 non-quality starts per starter for the remaining 92 games. Jon had 9. Simply put a rotation is allowed betw 45-50 bad starts, & 20-25 non-quality starts. That leaves 92 quality starts. You can't win a division w/out it. If Jon is going to consume 9 of the non-quality starts allowed, then someone else has to pick up his slack. I don't know enough about the SFG to fathom why they moved Herm out of the rotation. Maybe they had a pressing need at closer. All I do know is that if you look at the starts he did have he managed 10 quality starts, 3 non-q starts, & 5 bad starts. Garland managed 15 quality starts, 9 non-q starts, & 10 bad starts. So Herm gave the SFG a 10-8 split & Jon gave the CWS a 15-19 split. Herm was hit & miss in Jul before being moved to the pen. Jul 3 v OAK 7ip/0er dominant Jul 8 v ARI 6ip/5er bad Jul 18 @COL 5ip/3er ok Jul 23 @STL 6.2ip/2er dominant JUl 28 @SD 5.1ip/6er bad That certainly suggests he was moved to the pen out of need & not because he failed as a starter.

This is an interesting debate your having. The value & cost to a team of a long term contract. Case in point Manny Ramirez. If the BoSox do not sign Manny does he sign w the NYY's? If Manny signs w the NYY's does Boston win a WS? That's how you have to look at it. It's not just about helping your own team but also weaking your competition. Without Manny the BoSox likely don't make it to the post season & don't go on to win the World Series. I think Beltran was a fool not to sign with the Astros because when it comes to star players a no-trade clause doesn't mean much. You have PR issues to deal with so you need to make sure you can spin the trade so both the player & the fan base are happy. That's exactly what recently went down with S Green. For the top 6 markets it's all about winning a championship. Improving the team never enters their mindset like it does for us Sox fans. Keep the names rolling to keep the turnstyles moving. That's the name of their game. Seattle apparently has joined that mindset as well.

No one's suggesting he be the 5th starter. All I'm saying is that as a starter he performed as good in the NL as Garland did in the AL. That's a good thing to have. Likewise he served as a closer for SFG. Another good thing to have. So we have a reasonable option as a backup starter & backup closer in a very dependable long relief guy. I really hope JonG improves in 2005. I would like him to prove to the world that he can really be a solid #3/#4 guy. This is really his last chance. If he doesn't do it this year then he'll be nothing more than a #5.

Hey just because you don't understand that a starter's value is equal to runs surrendered per start (quality vs poor starts) is no reason to get upset. Yes Jon pitches in the much tougher AL & at the Cell. Ok, I'll grant you that. It's as good a reason to explain his mediocrity as anything else.

Did you really want to go there? JonudyG 04: June 6.82ERA, 7HR, 5GS, 229BA Aug 6.14ERA, 12HR, 6GS, 297BA Jonudy's Sep wasn't much better.

I feel better about Pods. In the win share thread I did some number-crunching & found that Pods actually increased his impact # from 03 to 04. Pretty significant since his avg dropped from 313 to 244. In 03 he scored or had an rbi in 71 games. In 04 he upped that to 83. Lee has such an impact in 92 games for the CWS in 04. If Pods can do that we should be in good shape.

My mistake. It's getting late. Those stats are meaningless. Look at the starts themselves. JonG 04: 0R 0, 1R 6, 2R 6, 3R 3, 4R 9, 5R 3, 6R 5, 7R 1, 10R 1 DusH 04: 0R 0, 1R 4, 2R 4, 3R 2, 4R 3, 5R 3, 6R 2 JonG 34 starts. DusH 18 starts so for sake of argument double DusH's numbers. DusH 04: 0R 0, 1R 8, 2R 8, 3R 4, 4R 6, 5R 6, 6R 4 Still better than Judy's. Do you honestly believe Garland would have had a better IP/start if Dustin had had 34 starts?

Well I think that just about busts this thread

For those who covet Vazquez pay attention: JVaz: 04 0r 2, 1r 2, 3r 8, 4r 6, 5r 4, 6r 3, 7r 2, 8r 2 JVaz: 03 0r 7, 1r 3, 3r 7, 4r 1, 5r 7, 7r 1, 8r 1 JVaz: 02 0r 1, 1r 8, 2r 5, 3r 5, 4r 5, 5r 3, 6r 6, 7r 1 NY should have done it's hmwk better. 10 bad starts in 02, 9 bad starts in 03, 11 bad start in 04. That's pretty consistent. They seemed to ignore that while they were infatuated with his 9 dominant starts in 02, & his 10 dominant starts in 03. Well this looks like a classic case of a NL pitcher who could no longer maintain his dominance vs tougher lineups. I sure hope I get to see Kerry Wood in the AL some day so I can laugh my head off when he pitchers. Well more so than i do now

If you get a chance check out the win share thread. Hermie's #'s as a starter are better than both Garland's & Schow's. He spent 1/2 of last yr as a SP for the Brew crew. I know a lot of you liked Kline, but when you consider the possibility of Garland sucking & El-Duque being shelved this was arguably KW's best signing of the off-season. He's a really versatile player. He's insurance vs Shingo at closer, El-Duque as a starter, & a very dependable relief pitcher.

Itchy, the Bulls are 14-18 winning 11 of the last 16. The town's a buzz. Imagine sitting in the house that Jordan built talking to the Airness himself as the Bulls play on into June. It can happen. It will happen.

Itchy if you're any good then think "endorsements". Shingo is fastly becoming a household name in Chicago. You can ride on his coattails to get "endorsements". You can double your earnings with "endorsements". Don't be greedy, be smart.

So where at 70M now. Spend a few more to push Harris to the bench. It's worth it.

He wants to play on the E coast for a NL team. I don't know if OAK or the CWS are listening but he says he doesn't want to play for you. I'm penciling him in as a Marlin come ST.

I'm reminded of the Abbot & Costello skit when thinking of the Twinks: Who's at first, What's at second, Where's at third, Whom's at SS? No it's not the same skit but you get the idea. Their entire IF is ???? Only in a dream world does that get resolved w/out any decline. Oh wait. I forgot Cy Santana is going to win 30 games

Hermanson. He might just beat out Garland for the 5th

Forecast time! Record 89-73 On avg, If an SP gives up 5R+ it's a loss. So let's add them up. Garcia 5, Contre 11, El-Duque 6, Garland 10, Mark B 10 : Tot 42 On avg, If a closer/setup gives up 2R+ it's a loss. STak 6, DMar 8 : Tot 14 On avg, if a MR gives up 3R+ it's a loss. CPol 3, JAdk 4, NCott 4, Hrm 2, Luis 4 : Tot 17 Total: 73. CWS 04 5.33R/gm. They'll need at least a 5R/gm avg to pull an 89-73 record.

I forgot El Duque! EL-D: 0R 3, 1R 4, 2R 3, 3R 3, 5R 3 JonG: 0R 0, 1R 6, 2R 6, 3R 3, 4R 9, 5R 3, 6R 5, 7R 1, 10R 1 MarB: 0R 4, 1R 3, 2R 8, 3R 6, 4R 4, 5R 3, 6R 2, 7R 2, 8R 2, 9R 1 Other RP: STak: 0R 48, 1R 6, 2R 4, 3R 2 DMar: 0R 55. 1R 9, 2R 5, 3R 3 CPol: 0R 37, 1R 10, 2R 3, 3R 2, 4R 1 DNP Sep+ JAdk: 0R 31, 1R 9, 2R 6, 3R 2, 4R 2 NCot: 0R 30, 1R 14, 2R 8, 3R 1, 4R 3

I still have to look at the pitching! R breakdown Garcia 0R 2, 1R 5, 2R 3, 3R 6, 4R 7, 5R 4, 9R 1 Contre 0R 2, 1R 6, 2R 3, 3R 3, 4R 6, 5R 5, 7R 4, 8R 2 Contreras is an interesting animal as well. He has shown the ability to be a top notch starter but he implodes too often. A total of 8 more weaker starts than Garcia. Still you have to be impressed with his potential. HrmSP 0R 0, 1R 4, 2R 4, 3R 2, 4R 3, 5R 3, 6R 2 HrmRP 0R 23, 1R 2, 2R 2, 4R 2 LuisRP 0R 51, 1R 14, 2R 4, 3R 3, 4R 1 Compared to both Garland & Contreras Hermanson doesn't look so bad as a starter. That's good insurance to have vs El Duque. As a reliever he's even more impressive. This is one of Kenny's best signings to date. I feel much better about Luis Vizcaino. 51 scoreless appearances is impressive. Looking at his OBP vs, SLG vs, & BA vs would not have led you to think that. He's blessed with mental toughness.

What about Dye & AJ? Dye 04: Apr 17, May 14, Jun 16, Jul 13, Aug 14, Sep+ 9, 15 DNP 83 games. Dye was DNP for 1/2 of Sep. So he likely would have been a factor in 88 games. No wonder Beane liked him so much. He was a consistent run producer. He's a prime example of hit quality over quantity. AJ 04: Apr 8, May 5, Jun 14, Jul 12, Aug 11, Sep+ 8. Tot: 58, 471AB JB 04: Apr 0, May 0, Jun 4, Jul 4, Aug 3, Sep+ 9. Tot: 20, 120AB Burke is an interesting animal. Project that out to 480AB & you're looking at 80 gm impact. Better than AJ. I hope he stays with the CWS. bd 04: Apr 3, May DNP, Jun DNP, Jul 2, Aug 11, Sep+ 6: Tot: 22, 193AB Davis high/low lights - Aug .354O .581S .936OPS .311BA mostly vs CLE, DET, KC Sep .200O .196S .396OPS .143BA mostly ALW, MIN, KC Gives you a new appreciation of AJ