JUGGERNAUT

MAGGLIO ORDONEZ As is days with the SOX dwindle, I'm sure he will come through.

Wow! 5 yes votes! The silent minority. These are dire times indeed. Hummel & Jimenez this goes out to you. The SOX have done your both BIG favors in shipping you to the Reds. (I believe that is where you both are). Now that you have much more playing time please return the favor. Hit the Scrubs hard & hit them often.

1) Who will win the series (CHW/NYY) (2 points)? CHW 2) Will Aaron Miles get a hit (Y/N) (2 points)? N 3) How many errors will the Sox make (4 points)? 1 4) How many at bats will Aaron Rowand have (4 points)? 2 5) How many runs per game will the Sox average to the nearest run (5 points)? 5 6) How many strikeouts will Billy Koch have (5 points)? 1 7) How many walks will Danny Wright issue (4 points)? 5 8) Will Mark Buehrle pick up a victory (Y/N) (2 points)? Y 9) Who will be in 2nd in the AL Central after the series (2 points)? KC 10) Will Alfonso Soriano hit a homerun (Y/N) (2 points)? Y TIEBREAKER: Total HRs combined both teams 8

FRANK THOMAS Love em or leave em he's here to stay.

I knew I would face resistance in dealing Maggs so I've thought of an alternative to getting Renteria+Drew. This is contingent upon Maggs agreeing to the following new contract: 10,11,12,(13,14) Option yr's dependant upon top 10 ranking in 12mil yr. Each yr 1mil bonus for top 5 ranking. The base pay assumes a top 10 ranking. So the net contract to Maggs is worth 60-65/5. That's betw 12-13mil/yr. That is very fair to Maggs. Now how do we get STL take Koney's 17+/2 yrs? We swap Buerhle for Maggs. Buerhle+Koney for Renteria+Drew+arm. With Maggs retained we don't need Everett & I think Lee has higher potential. How it reflects in the total cost: Trading Maggs+Koney left: Buerhle+Renteria+Drew+Everett=21mil Trading Buerhle+Koney leaves: Maggs@10+Renteria+Drew=20mil We have an extra mil to put towards Buerhle's replacement. So let me re-vamp the lineup cost: 1-R Alomar 4.5mil -2B 2-Renteria 6mil - SS 3-Frank 6mil - 1B/DH 4-Maggs 10mil - RF/DH 5-CLee (top 25) 5MIL - LF/DH 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL - CF/1B 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL - 3B 8-J Val (top 50) 3mil - 1B/DH/LF/RF 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL The lineup cost goes up 4mil to 33mil. Koch is 6mil so we're up to 39mil. The rotation is 20mil so we're up to 59mil. Colon 10mil E-LO 3.5mil 3rd 4mil (3mil if Schow) Garland 3mil 5th ??? We still have 5-9mil left for 5th starter, BP, & bench Marte 1mil Wunsch .7mil 3 min wage bench players 1mil Gordon/ (Schow if not a starter) 3mil 3 min wage relievers (Wright, & Co) 1mil We weaken the rotation to keep Maggs, but it's still pretty strong & under 5mil. Gordon is up there in age so I don't know if any one will offer him more than 3mil. Tot Cost: 65mil & this team can still win a division. If all the player meet their bonuses we go the World Series < 80mil. About our 5th starter: If Marte proves he can do it in winter ball or Koch proves he can close again in winter ball, then the 5th spot should be Marte's to lose. The goal is to get Koch back in the closer role. KW can invite some E-LO types to win the job as well. Now please don't argue that we need to keep Koney. He's 1 for 19 in the recent swing.

I know that Hummel was traded. I feel that he could have steped up next year and taken over 2nd instead of overpaying for a declining Alomar to play there next year. I also don't have much confidence in either Harris or Miles to play there fulltime next year. Juggernaut - you are going overboard with this analysis using the sargin stats. Its a good stat, but by no means a great indicator by itself. To be honest with you, your post are very confusing and hard to understand. I feel bad because it seems like you put a lot of work into it. Dude, that's why I simplied with simply an overall ranking. Maggs is top 10 in the AL in Sagarin's RPG but 16th overall in traditional Offensive stats. So whether you completely understand the RPG calculations really doesn't matter. What matter's is the cost of these players in comparison to their peers. That's where using the Sag ratings proved worthy. You can argue the value of RPG if you like, but not the comparison of RPG against peer players. I am willing to debate all off-season that Renteria+Drew+arm for Maggs+Koney is a great trade for the SOX. Obviously this is the core for my new+improved SOX team in 2004 for under 70mil. Keep in mind, when you are trying to build a World Series contender for under 70mil you have to crunch the numbers every way you can. It's not going to be a simple analysis. Beane does this with better efficiency than any other GM in the business. His biggest challenge lies ahead. A large number of core players will be moving into big bucks territory. He's going to need another 10-15mil to keep some of them. OAK is definitely making $$$ on the post-season but I don't know if raising post-season prices is going to make up the difference.

For SS, forget Matsui & Guzman. C Guzman rks 82. pay 2.252mil. Previous 3 yrs(00-02): rk'd 85,33,69 You're going to have to pay him 3+mil. So you're saving 3mil & getting 1/2 the player that Renteria is. What's the point? If you can get Matsui great, but you know what it's going to cost. A 10mil min bid, & a 4mil/yr min salary. So the 1st yr is a 14mil cost. Ichiro costs the M's a 12mil bid, & a 4mil/yr salary. A 16mil 1st yr cost. There's no way the SOX are going to play that game. So you're going to save 2mil on Guzman over Val, get 1/2 the O player & still be stuck with Koney. Good luck contending with a rotation of: E-LO, Buerhle, Schow, Garland, & some guy. That min cost of that rotation 15mil. The min cost of a lineup of RAlom, CLee, Thomas, Maggs, Koney, Crede, Rowand, Guzman, Olivo is 38mil. Tot before bench & relievers : 53mil. Min cost for bench & relief: 10-12mil. Tot cost 63mil. No offense, but I like my 2004 SOX team for a cost of 64-66mil MUCH better.

Crap. After doing Lee's, I realize I didn't do Maggs, Thomas, & Jurassic right. I should really pick a range where they are in the middle. Maggs (rks 3-12) RPG pay A-ROD 8.16 22mil Nixon 8.09 4mil Mueller 7.88 2.1mil Giambi 7.81 11.5MIL Martinez 7.61 4MIL Ordonez 7.59 9MIL Posada 7.58 8MIL Thomas 7.54 5MIL Beltran 7.36 6MIL Guillen 7.06 1MIL Wells V 7.00 .5MIL Avg RPG: 7.61 Avg Pay: 6.65MIL Magg's true value: 6.63MIL Ok, here's what I'm willing to do for Maggs. Re-negotiate his contract to 60/5 in escalation: 10,11,12,(13,14) (13,14) are option yrs. If Maggs is ranked top 10 in AL in 3rd, yr they are guaranteed. A 2 mil bonus for ranking in top 5 in AL in yr's 4, 5. So it's really a 64/5 if Maggs is the player you all say he is. I think that's a very fair contract for what he brings to the SOX yr after yr. Thomas: (rks 5-15) RPG pay Mueller 7.88 2.1mil Giambi 7.81 11.5MIL Martinez 7.61 4MIL Ordonez 7.59 9MIL Posada 7.58 8MIL Thomas 7.54 5MIL Beltran 7.36 6MIL Guillen 7.06 1MIL Wells V 7.00 .5MIL Ortiz D 6.99 1.25MIL Mientz D 6.80 1.75MIL Avg RPG: 7.38 Avg Pay: 4.55MIL Thomas' true value: 4.65MIL Based on Thomas career numbers & month to month consistency, 6MIL for 2K4 is not unreasonable. Certainly the SOX got their $ worth in 2K3. Val (rks 55-60): R Winn 5.14 3.3mil E Hinske 5.12 1mil B Kielty 5.09 .3mil S Spiezo 5.01 4.25mil C Pena 4.99 .3mil J Val 4.91 5mil I'm going to give Val the benefit of the doubt because of his previous yrs & heart on the SOX. Avg RPG: 5.04 Avg Pay: 2.36 J Val's true value: 2.3MIL 1) Do not give him the plate appearances to guar the 5mil option. 2) If he's willing to go 3MIL/yr welcome him back otherwise sayonara. 1 mil bonus for any top 10 ranking. 1 mil bonus for any top 5 ranking. (6-10)/2 yrs. A very fair pkg. Crede's true value as measured vs J Val: Crede RPG 4.52 Avg RPG: 5.04 Avg Pay: 2.36 Crede's true value: 2.11MIL I think he deserves a raise to .5mil at least. R Alomar's true value as measure vs J Val: R Alomar RPG 4.37 Avg RPG: 5.04 Avg Pay: 2.36 R Alomar's true value: 2.04MIL I'm willing to double that for the intangibles he's brought to the team, plus his 3 yr average. If he's willing to take an avg of 5mil a yr he can come back, otherwise sayonara. He had a 4.48 RPG in 2K2, an 8.83 RPG in 2k1, & a 6.67 RPG in 2K. I'm willing to roll the dice on 5mil a yr. I'd offer him 4.5,5.5,(7) for a 17/3 pkg. Option yr contingent on top 30 rank. 1 mil bonus for a top 10 ranking in any yr. Additional 1 mil bonus for a top 5 ranking in any yr. Net pkg is (17-23)/3. A very fair pkg. The theory on these bonuses for Lee, Everett, Alomar, Val, & Maggs. The added offensive production will result in more wins & more fans. The bonuses will pay for themselves. If all 5 of these guys made the bonuses we are talking World Series. I think that's worth an additional 5-10 mil cost each yr. Thomas gets the same thing in his contract right now. Again I would love to keep Maggs, but I don't see anyway to ship Koney w/out pkg'g him with Maggs. Koney was a mistake that must be rectified. We still owe him 17+/2. So let me re-vamp the lineup cost: 1-R Alomar 4.5mil -2B 2-Renteria 6mil - SS 3-Frank 6mil - 1B/DH 4-Jurrasic 6mil - CF/DH 5-CLee (top 25) 5MIL - LF/DH 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL - RF/LF 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL - 3B 8-J Val (top 50) 3mil - 1B/DH/LF/RF 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL Tot lineup cost: 29mil Tot rotation cost: 25mil Tot reliever/bench cost: 10-12mil Tot cost: 64-66mil! Tot cost with bonuses betw 68-78mil! You fat F JR, I just assembled you a World Series contender for under 80mil! Work the contracts exactly as I've spec'd out. I did it! You fat F JR! I just assembled you a team that can win the ALC div in 2K4 for under 70mil! So tell KW to get on the horn with STL after the season & build the team I just spec' d out for you! I spent 2 hours more than the love of my life allowed tonight, so she's going to make me reduce my time the rest of the week. I think it was worth it. I don't have to tell you what Renteria & JDrew will bring us in added team speed over Maggs+Koney. Renteria 34SB, JDrew 2SB (3yr avgs: 30SB, 14 SB) You could argue that with added playing time for JD he's a lock for 14SB after putting up 38SB in his first 3 yrs. So that's a 44SB total. Maggs+Koney = 9 this yr, 17 over 3yr avg You can argue at best 17SB for 2K4. That's a net increase of 28SB. This trade instantly makes us the fastest team in the ALC & one of the fastest in the AL. Right now the fastest in the ALC belongs to MIN & we know from first hand experience how that xlats to wins. How about an infield D of : 3B-Crede SS-Renteria 2B-R Alomar 1B-J Val Just think of the F'g range! How about an outfield D of : LF-Lee CF-Everett RF-Drew It's no worse than 2K3, & we get to keep the most improved player D : Lee. Plus now we have Val, Rowand, & Harris for D substitutions at CF, LF, & RF if need be. There's a lot less ground to cover in RF for Val vs CF so I don't think we should rule it out. Plus J Val can still spell Renteria at SS. That lineup makes the SOX better overall in both Off & Def. The rotation makes the SOX better in Def. And the bullpen remains about the same. We add new blood to decent/adequate core blood from 2K3 with Olivo & Crede still serving as the youth movement. The bench is expected to be even better as the best our ml's have to offer will compete with Graff, Harris, Rowand, & Dauby for spots. That's how you infuse the young players into the ML's. Bench time with giving your starters a lot of rest during blowouts. Don't let your starters pad their stats. It keeps their price down. After working this out, I'm BIG time EXCITED over 2OO4! For manager I want Bobby V at Manuel prices or I'm open to other options for proven winners. Candidates: Bobby V. Sciosca Mc Keon J Williams F Robinson Kelly L Bowa Mc Clendon B BOchy T La Russa C Tosca I'm not sure who's available, but if Phil, Hou, & STL fail to make the post-season it's very possible those mgr's will ge the ax. The rest might be worked out in trade or simply contracts expiring. If I had to rank a top 5 based on both avail, price, & X-O's: L Bowa T La Russa J Williams B Val T Kelly Ok. That does it! I'm completely done. All that really remains is contingency plans & the bullpen. I've got a whole off-season to work that out.

What's Lee's true value worth? Lee ranks 31st, so I will compare 25-35. Varitek 6.14 4.7MIL Salmon 6.09 9.9 Young 6.08 6.75 Soriano 6.01 .8 Chavez 5.93 3.7 Catlano 5.89 2.2 CLee 5.83 4.2 Stewart 5.82 6.2 Durazo 5.70 1 Tejada 5.68 5.2 Gerut 5.63 .3 Avg RPG (rk 25-35): 5.89 Avg pay (rk 25-35): 4.086 CLee's true value : 4.04MIL I'd be willing to go 5,6,7,(8,9) to re-sign Lee. 18/3 guaranteed, with (8,9) being club options contingent on Lee's 3rd year. If he ranks in the top 10 in the AL in his 3rd or 4th yr, the club option is 10,11 else 8,9. If the club declines the option, the club can still offer level 1 arbitration if CLee qualifies. Otherwise CLee's a FA.

Price vs Performance (Sag RPG): 2003 rk Player Salary 1 Ramirez 17.2MIL 2 Delgado 17.5MIL 3 A-ROD 22MIL 4 Nixon 4MIL 5 Mueller 2.1MIL 6 Giambi 11.5MIL 7 Martinez 4MIL 8 Ordonez 9MIL 9 Posada 8MIL 10 Thomas 5MIL Now I'm going to list the top 10 to show you how much variance exists yr to yr. rk Player 2002 1 Ramirez 2 Thome 3 Giambi 4 A-ROD 5 Sweeney 6 Ordonez 7 Williams B 8 Palmeiro 9 Delgado 10 Olerud rk Player 2001 1 Giambi 2 Thome 3 A-ROD 4 Alomar R 5 Martinez E 6 Ramirez 7 Delgado 8 Palmeiro 9 Gonzo 10 Boone rk Player 2000 1 Giambi 2 Delgado 3 Ramirez 4 Thomas 5 Nomar 6 A-ROD 7 Martinez E 8 Glaus 9 Erstad 10 Posada Here's another way to assess the top 10 $$$ value. Take the avg of the top 10 & the avg RPG, & then adjust accordingly. Avg Salary in top 10: 10.1MIL Avg RPG in top 10: 7.09 RPG = predicted runs per game. If every spot in the lineup was a player of equal performance to Maggs, the SOX RPG would be 7.59. In theory, if you weighted the RPG of every SOX player based on his plate appearances, & then averaged all the players weighted RPG you should come very close to the SOX avg RPG this year. Maggs = 7.59 RPG. 10.74MIL Thomas = 7.54 RPG. 10.67MIL Stop the b****ing over Thomas. He was a good price vs performance player in 2K3. This also shows how much Manny is overpaid. Manny = 8.47 RPG. 11.98MIL. BOS overpaid. A-ROD = 8.16 RPG. 11.54MIL. What a dumb arse Hicks is! Delgado = 8.31 RPG. 11.75MIL. Toronto overpaid. Giambi = 7.81 RPG. 11.05MIL. Real close. Let's take this further to figure out the gap betw the rest of the SOX: Everett = 6.50 RPG. 9.19MIL Lee = 5.83 RPG. 8.24MIL Val = 4.91 RPG. 6.95MIL Crede = 4.52 RPG. 6.39MIL (Don't tell Joe!) RAlom = 4.37 RPG. 6.18MIL This assumes uniform pay in each tier of 10 & that's totally unrealistic in MLB. The proper way to assess the value of each of the 5 is to find the averages. For Everett, you take the avg of pay for rk'g 11-20 & find the avg RPG. Then divide Everett's value = RPG/avg RPG * (avg pay). I'm out of time tonight, so I will just do Everett's: Player RPG Salary Beltran 7.36 6MIL Guillen 7.06 1MIL Wells V 7.00 .5MIL Ortiz D 6.99 1.25MIL Mientz D 6.80 1.75MIL Jeter D 6.68 15.6MIL Boone B 6.67 8MIL Blalock 6.65 .5MIL Huff 6.58 .5MIL Everett 6.50 9.15MIL Beltran ranks 11th, & Everett 20th. Avg pay in this group: 4.425MIL Avg RPG in this group: 6.80 Everett's true value : 4.25MIL It's rare that 6 players in this group will have a salary < 2MIL. So I think a better comparison is to look at those > 2MIL. Avg pay in 5-10 players: 7.95MIL Avg RPG in 5-10 players: 6.735 Everett's true value amongst 5-10 players: 7.67MIL A 6MIL/yr deal for Everett is more than reasonable. His Offensive production was 85.6% that of Maggs.

I have nothing against Maggs but his salary. Does he deserve it? Yes. Can we afford it? No. It's simply the numbers. For what Maggs+Koney produce & what they cost we simply can't afford them. We can't get rid of Koney without Maggs in the pkg. There's no team on the planet that will take Koney alone. Maggs will eat a min of 22% of the payroll next yr. That's assuming the SOX field a 65MIL team. What does is production equate to each month for the SOX? Apr 849 OPS, 13R, 18RBI May 855 OPS, 14R, 15RBI Jun 899 OPS, 18R, 13RBI Jul 1241 OPS, 22R, 24RBI Aug 882 OPS, 18R, 12RBI Sep 911 OPS 6R, 10RBI I don't have the team's month breakdowns (ESPN is too slow), but I can give you the team's monthly avg & how Maggs compares: 2K3: 738R, 715RBI .. monthly avg : 123R, 119RBI Maggs month %: Apr 10.5%R, 15%RBI May 11.4%R, 12.6%RBI Jun 14.6%R, 11%RBI Jul 17.9%R, 20.2%RBI Aug 14.6%R, 10.1%RBI There's only 7 gms left in Sep, & Maggs is way below in R but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Sep 10.5%R, 11%RBI Even if you were to make the argument that his % of offensive is worth the % of total payroll (essentially negating the value of pitchers), the best you can argue is that Maggs performance has been worth 14%RBI, 13%R or roughly 14% of the payroll or about 9MIL. How about Maggs over 3 yr (00-02): Apr 18R, 16RBI, 12.7%R, 11.7%RBI May 15R, 18RBI, 10.6%R, 13.3%RBI Jun 18R, 24RBI, 13%R, 17%RBI Jul 16R, 20RBI, 11%R, 14.5%RBI Aug 17R, 21RBI, 12.3%R, 15%RBI Sep 18R, 23RBI, 12.5%R, 16.4%RBI Maggs 2K3 month %: Apr 10.5%R, 15%RBI May 11.4%R, 12.6%RBI Jun 14.6%R, 11%RBI Jul 17.9%R, 20.2%RBI Aug 14.6%R, 10.1%RBI Statistically there is no reason to believe that Maggs is going to avg more than 13% of the R, 14% of the RBI's on avg per month for the SOX. Again that's worth at best about 9MIL with respect to the SOX budget. If the SOX had a scrubs budget of 86MIL then he'd be worth at best 12MIL. If the SOX had BOS budget of 100MIL then Maggs would be worth at best 14MIL. The bottom line is for the smaller revenue teams you must get more performance for less cost to compete. Ordonez ranks the 40th best bat in MLB this year. He ranks 16th best in the AL. For 14.5mil you need a guaranteed top 10 player. Period. Sagagin uses a Markov chain & intangibles that basically wt's Ordonez's carreer #'s a little better. He has him at 8th best in AL. I would say for 14.5mil you need a guaranteed top 5 player in the AL in Sag's RPG rankings.

I DEMAND THE F'g 6MIL for Jurassic! If he can be signed for 6MIL, I demand the SOX pay the $$$ & go over 60MIL. Look at his monthly stats: 2K3: Apr 1163 OPS May 893 OPS Jun 662 OPS July 667 OPS Aug 1042 OPS Sep 811 OPS WE'VE ALWAYS HAD GUYS that EXCEL in JUN, JUL to pick up CARL's SLACK. WE'VE NEVER HAD GUYS TO GET IN DONE IN THE TOUGH MONTHS OF MAY & AUG. IF CARL WAS ON THIS TEAM ALL YR, WE ARE STILL FIGHTING FOR THE DIVISION! Look at his (00-02) monthly avgs: Apr 854 OPS May 816 OPS Jun 921 OPS Jul 755 OPS Aug 855 OPS Spe 820 OPS Those numbers rank with any player on the SOX roster the past 4 yrs in consistency. They also show that Jun & Jul were more of an aberation than the norm. Jurassic makes a difference! How many games did Jurrasic's rbi & run total make a difference in the margin of victory? 36 gms. There were 36 gms Jurrasic played this yr betw TX & the SOX in which the margin of victory was w/in 2 runs of Jurrasic's total RBI+R for that game. In the final MIN series, Jurrasic had 2R+4RBI+1HR. That's 5 of the 7 runs scored in the series. These are the kind of guys you keep.

I HATE THE F'G BUDGET THE SOX HAVE TO OPERATE UNDER! I LOATHE JR AND ALL THE SOX BRASS FOR IMPOSING! TAKE A F'G CHANGE & SPEND IN THE RED ON THE TEAM FOR A FEW F'G YRS AT A CHANCE TO WIN THE A F'G CHAMPIONSHIP! I'm not asking for you to go bankrupt. Just go in the red by 10MIL in your own accounting practices next yr. That's all I'm F'G asking for! A F'g 70MIL payroll! :fyou JR & :fyou SOX board of Directors! I demand a F'g 70MIL payroll! A F'g 60MIL payroll means I can't sign Jurassic or Gordon! It means I have less than 2 F'g MIL to spend on those F'g spots. It means F'g ml's or Duaby's again! It F'g sucks! :fyou scrub fans for not supporting both teams when you've obviously got all the F'g $$$. The Cubune is still scalping tickets & you're still F'g buying them. You could easily spend that wasted $$$ on the discount pkgs & tixs offered by the SOX. :fyou Bears fans for not supporting your ISFA brother. Both the SOX & Bears are now ISFA children. Show you're F'g support! You can afford PSL's & s*** to support a crap team but you can't shell out a few bucks for a team that could be contending for a championship with 10MIL more to spend? You should be ashamed of yourselves! :fyou Bulls fans. You season avg extrapolated over 81 home games exceeds the SOX. Again the SOX are your brethren operating in a capless league competing against the 184MIL payroll of the Yanks. Support your brother! I can't say anything bad about Hawks fans. There are so few of them, that there's nothing left to say. Wirtz is slowly but surely driving the franchise into the ground. Dr. Murcie, some anger mgmt is needed here. I just can't stomach dealing with a mid-low 60's payroll 2/3 yrs for the SOX any more. It's giving me heartburn. Especially when the Scrubune seems poised to consistently spend low-high 80's on the scrubs now. SERENITY NOW!

For those thinking Koney is not tradeable, guess again: Koney's accomplishments: Ranked 16th in level A bats in AL in 2002. Ranked 24th in level A bats in AL in 2001. Ranked 31st in level A bats in AL in 2000. Ranked 39th in level B bats in AL in 2003. 1 bad yr in 4 does not greatly dim a players value. Especially when he's had great success in the 2nd 1/2 of 2003. vs LH: 1048 OPS, vs RH 576 OPS Pre-AS: 567 OPS, Post-AS: 921 OPS 3 yr (00-02): vs LH 807 OPS, vs RH 864 OPS So if you are STL & you've got a chance to trade Renteria+JDrew+arm for Maggs+Koney, you look at Paul's numbers vs RH's over his career much more so than 2K3. Paul's 1048 vs LH in 2K3 is very promising. At 27 yrs old, Konerko is very tradeable. I'm hoping he finishes strong over the next 9 gms.

I did make reference to Sag ratings but let me list the definitions of A, B, & C. A level arms: 162+ ip B level arms: 53-161 ip C level arms: 0-52 ip A level is starters only. No reliever reaches A. A level bats: 502+ plate appearances B level bats: 162-501 plate appearances C level bats: 0-161 plate appearances A level is for core lineup guys only. No bench or role players reach A. With that in mind, recall: 1-top 20A = (Colon/New) 10MIL 2-top 20A = Buerhle 5MIL 3-top 30A = E-LO 3.5MIL 4-top 30A = Garland 3MIL 5-top 30A = new guy (no more F'g experiments) 3MIL Tot rotation: 25MIL About the 5th starter, both Marte & Schow qualify. Marte 1B,4B,42C, ml - top 10B: 1MIL Schow B25, B55, A29, A27 - top A30, B30 : 3MIL What this means is that Marte is statistically the best reliever in the AL this year. He may not win the Rolaids Man of Relief reward, but he's got the best #'s. Can he make it as a starter? Durability is the only question. He's effective against both LH & RH bats. Marte 2K3 RH: (.196A, 581 OPS); LH: (.168A, .471 OPS) Marte 2K2 RH: (.252A, 675 OPS); LH: (.149A, .455 OPS) Marte's ranked in the top 5 for AL relievers 2 straight yrs because of his ever improving effectiveness vs RH. He definitely deserves a shot at the 5th spot. Schow ranked in the top 30 in the AL as a starter in 00, 01. That's better than Garland has ever ranked. Schow 2K3 RH: (.298A, 758 OPS); LH: (.228A, 572 OPS) Schow 2K2 RH: (.290A, 834 OPS); LH: (.202A, 609 OPS) Schow 2K1 RH: (.304A, 843 OPS); LH: (.209A, 517 OPS) Schow 2K0 RH: (.271A, 784 OPS); LH: (.294A, 774 OPS) Scott has always proven to be a battler as a starter. As a starter he's 23-27 in 74 starts or 31%W, 36.5%L 3 yr avg (00-02) (820 OPS vs RH, 625 vs LH) Garland: As a starter he's 31-38 in 92 starts or 33.7%W, 41%L 3 yr avg (00-02) (742 OPS vs RH, 823 vs LH) Garland 2K3: RH: (.235A, 707 OPS); LH: (.279A, 797 OPS) Schow has just as much right to be in the rotation as Garland. Lineup: 1-RAlomar/Vina (top 50) 4MIL 2-Renteria (top 20) 6MIL 3-Frank (top 20) 6MIL 4-Jurrasic (top 20) 6MIL 5-CLee (top 25) 6MIL 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL 8-new guy (top 50) 1MIL 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL Tot Lineup: 35MIL If Vina is cheaper, go with Vina. The 8th spot in the lineup should be a guy with potential to be in the top 50 list of hitters in the AL. Once again Thomas is not tradeable. Nobody is going to take on 24/3 for Thomas. So he's definitely going to be with the SOX if that's what he wants. Now if he's having a top 10 MVP season in 2K4, the SOX might be able to ship him. Bullpen: I've got 4MIL betw Schow & Marte. One of them will be in the BP & the other will serve both the 5th spot & some BP when a 5th starter is not needed. Koch B86, B15, B57, B16 - top B20 : 6MIL I don't think we'll be able to trade him, but there is at least a pattern of him bouncing back after a bad year. I hope he will be in the top 20 list of relievers in the AL. Wunsch C4,C44,C50,B12 = top C10 : 1MIL Wunsch should be very cheap. His lack of innings but decent performance makes him a keeper. I expect Wunsch to be able to pitch more than 53 innings next year & finish in the top 20 list of relievers. Wright B82, A34, B108 - top B50 : .5MIL I think we owe it to Danny to give him a BP spot. Danny's not accomplished really anything at any level, but the belief is that he will excel as a reliever. Gordon B7,C46,C11. - top 20B : 3MIL The thing about Gordon is his durability. He's not getting any younger so I don't think his price will be as high as some think. You're talking about a guy who's logged B level innings once in 4 yrs since he was out completely in 00. I think we can afford him. Tot BP: 10-12MIL Tot Team: 70-72MIL, add another 3 for bench players. Crap: I'm over 70MIL. Gordon goes & Jurassic might have to as well. Stupid budget.

The last step of course is the $: Rotation: 1-top 20 = (Colon/New) 10MIL 2-top 20 = Buerhle 5MIL 3-top 30 = E-LO 3.5MIL 4-top 30 = Garland 3MIL 5-top 30 = new guy (no more F'g experiments) 3MIL Tot Rotation: 20MIL Lineup: 1-RAlomar/Vina (top 50) 4MIL 2-Renteria (top 20) 6MIL 3-Frank (top 20) 6MIL 4-Jurrasic (top 20) 6MIL 5-CLee (top 25) 6MIL 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL 8-new guy (top 30) 3MIL 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL Tot Lineup: 37MIL If Vina is cheaper, go with Vina. Bullpen: Marte 1B,4B,42C, ml - top 10B: 1MIL KW got real lucky here. Ride him as long as you can. Allow him to play Winter ball & AFL to tryout as a 5th starter. Give him a few spot starts in ST. If he succeeds I'd give him the 5th spot. He'd make an ideal 5th because, he could still be very useful in the BP during those times when there is no need for a 5th. Gordon B7,C46,C11. - top 20B : 3MIL The thing about Gordon is his durability. He's not getting any younger so I don't think his price will be as high as some think. You're talking about a guy who's logged B level innings once in 4 yrs since he was out completely in 00. I think we can afford him. Wunsch C4,C44,C50,B12 = top C10 : 1MIL Wunsch should be very cheap. His lack of innings but decent performance makes him a keeper. Koch B86, B15, B57, B16 - top B20 : 6MIL I don't think we'll be able to trade him, but there is at least a pattern of him bouncing back after a bad year. Wright B82, A34, B108 - top B50 : .5MIL I think we owe it to Danny to give him a BP spot. Schow B25, B55, A29, A27 - top A30, B30 : 3MIL Sully B23, B102, B35, B16 - top B30 If we can only afford 1 I go with Schow. He's proven his effectiveness both as a starter & a reliever. I think we can give Schow a chance for the 5th spot in ST. Tot BP: 10-12MIL Tot Team: 67-69MIL, add another 3 for bench players. Pare off 3MIL in BP & 8th lineup guy. That fits us under 70MIL with the best shot to win the div in 2004. We will have to go young at both spots.

Re-cap: Rotation: 1-top 20 = (Colon/New) 2-top 20 = Buerhle 3-top 30 = E-LO 4-top 30 = Garland 5-top 30 = new guy (no more F'g experiments) Lineup: 1-RAlomar/Vina (top 50) 2-Renteria (top 20) 3-Frank (top 20) 4-Jurrasic (top 20) 5-CLee (top 25) 6-JDrew (top 20) 7-Crede (top 50) 8-new guy (top 30) 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) If Vina is cheaper, go with Vina. Bullpen: Marte 1B,4B,42C, ml - top 10B: KW got real lucky here. Ride him as long as you can. Allow him to play Winter ball & AFL to tryout as a 5th starter. Give him a few spot starts in ST. If he succeeds I'd give him the 5th spot. He'd make an ideal 5th because, he could still be very useful in the BP during those times when there is no need for a 5th. Gordon B7,C46,C11. - top 20B The thing about Gordon is his durability. He's not getting any younger so I don't think his price will be as high as some think. You're talking about a guy who's logged B level innings once in 4 yrs since he was out completely in 00. I think we can afford him. Wunsch C4,C44,C50,B12 = top C10 Wunsch should be very cheap. His lack of innings but decent performance makes him a keeper. Koch B86, B15, B57, B16 - top B20 I don't think we'll be able to trade him, but there is at least a pattern of him bouncing back after a bad year. Wright B82, A34, B108 - top B50 I think we owe it to Danny to give him a BP spot. Schow B25, B55, A29, A27 - top A30, B30 Sully B23, B102, B35, B16 - top B30 If we can only afford 1 I go with Schow. He's proven his effectiveness both as a starter & a reliever. I think we can give Schow a chance for the 5th spot in ST. Here's how I would play it. Run the 5th spot like you did last year with E-LO. Take a failed starter with promise & let him battle for the spot vs Schow & possibly Marte. If he fails to win the 5th but pitches decently for the 1st couple of innings in each start, give him a shot at the BP. The bottom line is this: Bullpen: no less than top 10 top 20 top 20 top 50 top 20 top 30 Add Graff, Rowand, & Harris on the bench & we should be able to win it next year < 60MIL.

Priorities in winning: 1-5 rotation: I covered this already. All 5 need to avg in top 20 or top 30. Lineup: MIN 15,24,32,36,41,64,75,83 KCR 11,38,40,45,49,71,74 SOX 8,10,20,31,60,68,73 There's are the rankings of the players who take the most AB's for the 3 teams. 478+ appearances. Avg: MIN: 46.3 KCR: 46.9 SOX: 38.6 Median: MIN: 38.5 KCR:45 SOX:31 Now this is interesting, because it illustrates a point. How much is a top 10 lineup guy really worth? If you replace Maggs with a top 30 guy the median for the lineup remains the same. There's nothing that can be done with Frank. No one is going to trade for him or seek him as a FA. He's here to stay. Koney didn't even make 478 appearances. So both Maggs & Koney should be on the trade block. Carl is a perfect fit for the team. A top 20 player this year, & has ranked respectively over the last 4 yrs: 2 top 20 A finishes, 2 top 30 B finishes. His performance is not over the top to where you can't afford him, but it's good enough to keep him. When consider Lee vs Everett keep this in mind: Rankings: Carl : 20A, 32B, 34B, 19A CLee: 31A, 25A, 45A, 41A Carlos is very close to being a top 20 player. But right now his value is no more than top 30. Both of these guys when you consider durability & performance are top 30 value. If you can sign them for top 30 prices then do so. If you can only afford 1, sign Jurrasic. I think we can afford both: New core: 1-RAlomar 2-New guy 3-Frank 4-Jurrasic 5-CLee 6-new guy 7-new guy 8-new guy 9-SAlomar/Olivo Next lets look at the Alomars: RAlo - 73A, 58A, 4A, 26A SAlo - 49B, 65B ,86B, 55B Roberto Alomar is a top 50 player at best, & Sandy is a top 50 reserve at best. That's where the price should lie to re-sign them. I think that fits in the SOX budget, so I'm penciling them in. That leaves 4 new guys: I'm hoping Renteria in place of Maggs. Renteria - 15A, 32A, 72A, 54A : top 20 value Maggs - 8A ,6A, 11A, 23A : top 10 value - why we can't afford him & never will. Of course trading a top 10 for a top 20 is insane, so I would expect us to get some more. Likewise expect Koney to be pkg'd in the trade. Koney - 39B,16A,24A,31A top: 30 value JDrew - 7B, 19B, 1B, 14B top: 20 value There is at least top 20A potential in JDrew. So the trade is Maggs+Koney for Renteria+JDrew+an arm. 1-RAlomar (top 50) 2-Renteria (top 20) 3-Frank (top 20) 4-Jurrasic (top 20) 5-CLee (top 25) 6-JDrew (top 20) 7-Crede (top 50) 8-new guy (top 30) 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) What I figure is Jurrasic/Frank/new guy can spell time at DH. Frank/new guy can spell time at 1B. I'd like to get a top 30 guy at least. What's Crede's potential? rankings (03-00) 68A, B15, 97C, 62C. I'm going to put Crede in top 50A. Which means the new guy should be in top 30 at least.

I HATE THE FSN CUB COVERAGE PEOPLE! They talk about the ASTROS like they were a F'g afterthought! Well :fyou all! My ASTROS are going to beat you to the finish line! Dave Otto. That's his F'g name! scrubs 1/2 a gm back of Cards. 6 gms left. scrubs 1.5 gm back of wild card. 6 gms left. GO BUCKS! GO REDS! GO FISH! GO PHILS! Lay down Giants & Brewers. Alou, nows a good time to rest Barry. Make Dave Otto stuff his mouth with Hay in the end!

I'm taking the blinders off on this & asking the question can I assemble a contender < 70MIL? I'm going to rely heavily on Sag ratings over past 3 yrs for value & performance. Colon: Sag ratings past 4 yrs (2003-2000): 10th, 16th, 22nd, 4th Avg: 13th value=top 13 E-LO: Sag ratings past 4 yrs (2003-2000): 5th, 66th, 35th, 32nd Avg: 34th value=top 34 Garland: Sag ratings past 4 yrs (2003-2000): 30, 32, 74, 93 Avg: 57th value=top 57 Buerhle: Sag ratings past 4 yrs (2003-2000): 20, 16, 5, 43 Avg: 21st value=top 21 We have no 5th starter so it's not worth appraising. Of interest, Halladay: Sag ratings past 4 yrs (2003-2000): 6, 4, 16, 109 4 yr Avg: 33rd 3 yr Avg: 9th value=top 10 It's more important for the SOX to secure a real 5th starter than any other move. Take a look at the numbers: SOX: 1-4: 48 wins in 128 starts or 37.5% 5: 4 wins in 26 starts or 15.4% MIN: 1-4: 45 wins in 113 starts or 39.8% 5: 21 wins in 41 starts or 51% KC: 1-4: 31 wins in 82 starts or 37.8% 5: about 27 wins in 71 starts or 38% There's no reason to look beyond the division. KW needs to secure a solid 5th starter. A 38% avg in the 5th spot is 6 more wins. 87 wins is leading the division right now. Think division first then Championship second. It's questionable what is to be gained by trying to grow a 5th starter any more. We've been growing Garland as a #3 for yrs, & he's never gotten past the top 30 yet now he's up for arbitration. We've been growing Wright in the same capacity & we just got lucky with Buerhle. Bottom line: The SOX need to fill Colon's shoes with no worse than a top 20 starter with a track record of winning near 50% of his starts year after year. The SOX need to fill the #3 spot with no worse than a top 30 starter with a track record of winning near 50% of his starts year after year. Rotation: 1-top 20 2-top 20 3-top 30 4-top 30 5-top 30 This should be the highest priority & is the formula to win this division. Now if there is a possibility of upgrading to top 10 for any of the top 20 spots or top 20 for any of the top 30 spots then you do so with a shot to win a championship. Otherwise you remain content with winning the division.

I live in an area where scrub fans outnumber SOX fans about 3-to-1.

I classify other as rooting for indiv scrub players but not the scrubs. Ex. Today if you are a SOX fan/Prior fan, you wanted Prior to lose 1-0 or 2-0.

The scrubs might just be the only MAJOR Chicago team to make the post-season in 2003-2004. Do we have to hate Zambrano, Farnsworth, Alou, Lofton, & Prior?

The ISFA.

The ballparks matter as well. Take at the dimensions of the 2. Pay more attention to the shape than the numbers. The colliseum is shaped like the top half of a circle & the SOX are shaped more like an exponential curve. The end result is that there are more places at the CELL to hit the ball out of the park than at the Colliseum. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/stadium?team=oak http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/stadium?team=chw The SOX should aim for pitchers who give up most of their hits in CF or are GB guys. Guys who live on the edge of LF & RF will get creamed at the Cell.