JUGGERNAUT

Magic Numbers: KC = 163 - 58 - 52 = 53 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 That's also why the SOX a 1 gb. A win cut's it by 1/2 gm, & a KC loss cut's it by another 1/2. If that happens today, it cuts the SOX MN to 53.

MN = 163 - (Front runner's wins) - (Contender's losses) Tha't s the way the number counts down near the end. The leader controls their own destiny. That's why they call it a magic number. Ex. 9/8/2002 MN 82W, 60L SX 68W, 74L MN = 163 - 82 - 74 = 7 SOX went 5-2 in the next 7 MIN went 5-2 in the next 7 MN = 163 - 87 - 76 = 0. That's when MN clinched the division. For this year: KC = 163 - 58 - 52 = 53 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 MN = 163 - 54 - 50 = 59 CL = 163 - 45 - 50 = 68 DT = 163 - 29 - 50 = 84 Before the SOX get pulverized by the M's: KC = 163 - 57 - 51 = 55 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 Both team's have the same MN, but the SOX own the h2h tie-breaker given them a slight edge.

Your first point is meaningless ( and you question my sense :roll:). Your 2nd point, I'm not sure on. But you may be right. If KC is close, I'm sure it will be mentioned in the media. However; the value of your 2nd pt is meaingless. Since h2h currently favors the SOX & progression is based on that being the case at the end, a 1 gm playoff favors the SOX in the case both teams finish with the same records. Thirdly, since we are talking about progression & it's based on past performance the KC winning % application towards their chances of winning game 58 is not absurd. What do you think the odds-makers go off of? PAST PERFORMANCE. As for the value of this pt I will agree it's weak at best. Forthly, you're dead wrong on magic number. By it's very definition it's the combination of WINS (front runner) & LOSSES (contender) needed for the front-runner to clinch. Since WINS is what the front runner controls that's were the primary importance lies. WINS mean more than LOSSES when a team leads a division in wins.

Fifth reason: projections (win % * rm gms) KC 86-75 SOX 86-75 That leaves 1 gm in the balance. Case 1: They both win/lose it. SOX win the div by 1st tie-break (h2h). They own h2h 5-4 right now. Case 2: KC win, SOX lose. KC wins div. Case 3: SOX win, KC lose. SOX win div. SOX win the div 3 out of the 4 cases. 75% probability. It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. <- to the M's. It better be your best, or you'll get spanked again! :fthecubs -> for beating the D's

I don't know where you learned that but baseball standings have always regarded the loss column more important than the wins column for over a century. Winning percentage proves this, as the Royals have the edge in the winning percentage (.533-.532) even though they have less wins than the Sox (57-58) because they also have less losses (50-51). Wins only mean more than/as much as losses when looking at the division standings when all teams have played the same number of games (say, at the end of the year, ideally). If not, the All-Important Loss Column takes precendence. Not that the win/loss column mean anything when the teams are in a virtual tie on August 1. As long as they keep on hittin'. You got to it before i did. 100% correct - losses mean way more than wins You're both wrong. Look at the %'s. First off, historically it's like 99.9% of the time that the team with the most wins has won the division. The exceptions being times when 2 teams fighting for a division don't play the same games. Secondly, it's a question of winning %. Right now the SOX have 58 wins, & KC has 57 wins. Based on KC's winning %, there is on avg a .533% chance that KC will win it's 58 game. Where there is a 100% chance that the SOX have. This is why %-wise the edge goes to the SOX. Thirdly, losses come into play in terms of magic numbers because of mathematical elimination. For a magic number to have any significance a team must be at least 2 gms back in the win-loss differential. Clearly that is not the case here. Forthly, the SOX own the head-head 5-4. It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. <- to the M's. It better be your best, or you'll get spanked again! :fthecubs -> for beating the D's

There was some discussion earlier that Ginter is out of options. They don't have to send someone down just yet. They could put someone on the 15th day DL to make room for Wright. With the way Whitey Ford has been pitching that's not a bad idea either. Have him do some weight training during that time.

I agree they will wait until after tonight's game, before making the annoucement so they can make use of the current roster before Wright comes back. They need a 5th starter. Period. With 23 games in the next 24 days there are at least 3 starts for a 5th starter. Being in a dog fight where every game is do or die, you can't simply spot those starts. It's time for Wright to step it up.

ESPN still has Ginter listed for Sat, but he had 13SV, 59ip, and 39 gp in AAA. I don't see how the SOX can expect to get 5 ip out of him Sat. Other options: Dump White, re-call Wright. This seemed the most logical. Starting Buerhle on Sat is not an option. The SOX have 1 off day in the first 24 days of Aug. You have to have a 5th starter in that span. Ginter is not that guy. Dump White or Dauby & bring up Wright. You need Harris & Rowand for late inning D like you saw in the KC series. The competition is strong the rest of the way.

It' makes me want to 3B - ALL STAR BOONE SS - ALL STAR JETER 2B - ALL STAR SORIANO 1B - ALL STAR JASON GIAMBI C - ALL STAR JORGE POSADA LF/RF - ALL STAR GODZILLA CF - ALL STAR BERNIE WILLIAMS Note to all ALL STAR's: There is an opening for an ALL STAR in the NYY OF. Send Resume's to George Darth Vader Steinbrenner. No, he is not your Father. Unless it was out of wedlock making you a bastard/b****. I'm too disgusted to list the ALL STAR pitchers. Note to MLB owners: Don't trade with the Evil Empire. There are always better options.

1) Who will win the series (CHW/SEA) (2 points)? CHW 2) Will Scott Schoeneweis pitch at least 3 innings (Y/N) (2 points)? N 3) How many errors will the Sox make (4 points)? 1 4) Which Sox infielder will get on base the most (4 points)? Konerko 5) How many strikeouts will Bartolo Colon have (5 points)? 8 6) How many home runs will the Sox hit in the series (5 points)? 4 7) In how many innings will the Sox score three or more runs (4 points)? 3 8) Will Carl Everett have more than four hits (Y/N) (2 points)? Y 9) Who will have more RBI in the series? Maggs or Konerko (2 points)? Maggs 10) Will Mike Cameron hit a home run (Y/N) (2 points)? Y TB: How many innings will the SOX bullpen pitch? 9

JUGGERNAUT 17 (-2) I'm a STARTER after just my 2nd game playing! *woohoo* Look out Northern League!

PAUL KONERKO

CARLOS LEE

JOSE VALENTIN

CARLOS LEE

JOSE VALENTIN

PAUL KONERKO With all the offense going on, this game has gotten much tougher! I think Alomar's (s***! I got to pinch hit now? Zip ... swing .. bang .. boom!) performance takes the cake.

When you are looking for the division crown, the wins mean more than the loses: 1. Royals = 57 wins 2. WHITE SOX = 57 wins 3. Twinkies = 53 wins This isn't Hockey. The fact that the Royals have 2 gms in hand in the loss column don't mean jack. Chances are they will have to play double hearders to make up those games. We all know how hard it is to win a double header. Even the NYY have a hard time doing it. Not that it really matters. Next week the Royals visit the Cell. Watch the changing of the guard.

With KW eluding to Schow being in the 2k4 rotation, let's discuss who we want to ship, keep, sign, & dump. Maggs: due 14MIL nxt yr. 1 yr before ufa. What to do: sign him to a 60/5. Larry Walker is making a tad bit over 12MIL, & the 60/5 can be structured to be escalating: 10,11,12,13,14. Rowand: Keep Everett: Arbit for compensation. There will be a buyer. RAlomar: arbit for compensation. There will be a buyer. Valentin: 1 yr, 3MIL Crede: Keep Lee: Un-signed rfa. What to do: sign him to 18/3. Escalating as 5,6,7. Koney: ship. Koney is a solid offense player yr to yr. There will be takers. Olivo: Keep SAlomar: sing 1 yr, 1MIL Colon: arbit for compensation or sign him to a 50/5. Probably will go to Yanks to replace Clemens in the rotation. If gone seek new #4 pitcher. Cotts? E-LO: pick up option = ACE Buehrle: arbit or sign to 30/5, escalating. Garland: arbit or sign to 22/5. Schow: arbit or sign. Make 5th starter. Koch: ship. Like Koney, 1 yr does not ruin a career. There will be takers. White: dump .. somewhere in the Meadowlands. Gordon: pick up option. Marte: raise Replace Koney with Frank & bring up or acquire a new 1B/DH.

Comiskey was a bastard. I was glad to see his name removed. I always called it SOX park. Never Comiskey Park.

The more I read, the more I like: "Right now, our primary need for him is in the bullpen,'' White Sox general manager Ken Williams said. "He's not stretched out enough to go into the rotation.'' Schoeneweis, 29, is 1-1 with a 3.96 ERA in 39 relief appearances this season. He has a 28-31 career record with a 5.10 ERA in 183 games, including 74 starts. Williams said Schoeneweis will be given a chance in spring training to win a spot in the starting rotation. "He has three quality pitches," Williams said. "We can visualize him in our rotation next year.'' Here's what I'm thinking: They'll either sign Mark to a contract paying less than the original offer, or they will do another 1 yr. That free's up $ for Colon. A rotation of E-LO, Mark, Colon, Garland, & Schow would be as good as any other in the AL & certainly good enough to repeat as ALC champs. I think they have an option on Gordon so they'll still have the anchor of Gordon & Marte for setup & closer. I imagine Wunsch will be back as well. Leaving just 3 more spots to fill in the BP. Ginter could make it with a strong 2nd 1/2, & Porzio will certainly get another shot. Leaving what spot for a ml call up. That looks like a pretty strong BP as well. I would imagine the SOX will try to cut the $$$'s by dealing Koney & Kroch in the off-season. Of course that's only possible if both put up decent #'s in the last 2 months. Kroch is a luxury with Marte on the team. Right now the trade looks pretty dumb. The SOX would probably be leading the division With set roles in BP: Marte & Gordon : setup & closer Foulke: Long Relief Wunsch/Porzio : LH specialist Glover/Ginter: mid RH Sanders/White: mid RH Everyone thought we were trading for a 99 MPH heater when we dealt Foulke. That heater hasn't made it past 94 yet. Meanwhile Gordon & Marte throw 96-97 almost effortlessly. I think it's a given now that Beane knows he over-used Kroch last yr, & his velocity dropped off considerably.

SCHOW is just a LH specialist. 647 OPS vs. 487 OPS vs LH, 817 OPS vs RH But there is promise for 2004 for him to be a 5th starter: 2000 SCHOW lev A 3.87 NPERA, rank 27, 170 ip, 7 W 2001 SCHOW lev A 4.19 NPERA, rank 29, 205 ip, 10W 2002 SCHOW lev B 4.08 NPERA, rank 55, 118 ip, 9W 2003 SCHOW lev B 2.65 NPERA, rank 15, 38.2 ip, 1W SCHOW has lowered his ERA every yr in the last 4. He's also improved against RH from 933 OPS vs to 817 OPS vs. I would fathom to say that right now he's better than any other pitcher we have ML or ml for 5th starter. He still has another yr of arbitration left, so it's possible we now have a solid 5th starter for next yr for about 2MIL. Tha't s not too shabby of a trade. Assuming we can keep Colon, a rotation of : Colon, Buehrle, E-LO, Garland, & Schow looks pretty good! Schow will definitely benefit from being spaced betw Garland & Colon.

Something has to give with this team's payroll. With MAGGLIO quickly becoming the best baseball player in Chicago, I think JR is going to have to come up with a Sosa like deal to extend Maggs for another 5 yrs for 70MIL. Right now Frank is more productive & costs less than Koney so I see Koney being moved. This team is never at a loss for 1B/DH types. Lee seems like a sure bet to get an extension. Probably a 16/3 deal. Koch will probably be moved to get out of the 6MIL. Colon breaks for FA with several others, so I will just say 10MIL/yr locked up in ace. Is there any $$$ left for Buehrle? Not unless there's a major surge in rev.

It's a rough schedule the rest of the way. We've got 6-9 games against the best of the ALW, ALC, & ALE facing out. So I prefer to take it 1 game at a time. I think tonight's game is as important as the next 12. Win gm 1 & set the tone.

I like Suppan. If I'm going to give up talent let it be to a Cub rival. I think with Suppan there's a better chance to re-sign him & give up the least in talent. Of course KW thought Wells & Fogg was giving up the least a year ago, so you never know. In comparison, if Wright & a mL arm can get us Suppan I'm for it.