witesoxfan

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 04:18 PM) I am going to say this. We need offense more than we need pitching. We the limited resources we have, I think it would hurt the franchise more than it would help it in the long run to give up the haul that would be needed to get a guy like Cueto here. The starting pitching staff is the area that has the least to gain from a big infusion of a top flight talent. We have a guy like Carlos Rodon waiting in the wings, who could be as good, or better, than Cueto, without giving up anything. I am going to respectfully disagree that they don't need pitching. Sale & Q - 353.2 IP, 302 H, 109 ER, 88 BB, 363 K, 21 HR, ERA - 2.77, WHIP - 1.10, K/9 - 9.2, BB/9 - 2.2, HR/9 - 0.5 Rest of SP - 552 IP, 630 H, 329 ER, 216 BB, 361 K, 78 HR, ERA - 5.36, WHIP - 1.53, K/9 - 5.9, BB/9 - 3.5, HR/9 - 1.3 Yes, Rodon will likely come up next year and improve those by himself, and you [may] get Noesi for the full year (and he's a perfectly adequate 5th starter with a bit of upside) but one of the biggest ways I do think the Sox could improve this team is if they found a replacement for Danks in the rotation. Finding a suitor for Danks will be difficult, but if the Sox get creative, I don't think it's impossible. I'd only do so once I have an agreement in principle for an upgrade, but the Sox rotation could go from top heavy to very good next year. I think they also need to add a bat, but looking position by position, I think the Sox have a lot of spots covered with guys that are either solid or need an extended look - Flowers, Abreu, Sanchez/Johnson/Semien, Ramirez, Gillaspie, Viciedo/Semien/Taylor/FA, Eaton, Garcia, whoever. The area of biggest need is LF, but you can also just bring in good bat too.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) I am actually a math guy. I do know the probabilities that Addison Reed contributes on the major league level vs. Matt Davidson was definitely greater coming into this season, and are now even greater at this point moving forward. BTW, if I am playing the results, I will win every time. I get to put my chips on red after the ball as landed.and that is what I am getting at. We have hindsight to show this was a bad trade. Somewhere along the line, the White Sox failed on this one. It is obvious. I don't know why some are so offended that this could possibly be called a bad trade. Matt Davidson just isn't as good as what many thought. He won't be the last. I don't think it's so much that people are upset about calling it a bad trade but are more upset or agitated that you aren't acknowledging the intent behind the trade. The intent was good, but thus far the trade has been bad. It's similar to trading Sergio Santos to Toronto. Neither has worked out for the Sox, but it's not a bad process. You are essentially gambling that a prospect who will play 2-4 times as often as a reliever will pan out versus a solid but not spectacular reliever who has a limited ceiling.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 03:38 PM) There's no way way in hell we'd win the bidding for Cueto. Someone will pay more than we can pay. I know I'm a buzzkill but man it's true. It's not even plausible. I've spent a big portion of my life steeling myself from being let down, and maybe I've paid for it emotionally and I don't have as much fun as I could. Is it worth it to sacrifice the highs to avoid the lows? Sure doesn't sound like it when you put it THAT way. What is actually working in favor of the Reds right now is, ironically, the Homer Bailey extension. They've shown the other 29 teams that they have no problem dishing out a lot of money to keep their talented pitchers. So, unlike the Twins in the Johan Santana situation where the Twins forced themselves into a corner and had to accept the best bad offer given to them (which still netted them Carlos Gomez who is one of the better all around players in the game right now, just not for the Twins). It's also unlike the David Price situation too, where I think the Rays got fairly decent value out of the whole thing.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) I don't think this trade is the difference between winning the division and where the Sox are now. I am just saying it was a bad trade. You can't win them all. I don't think it's too late for it to redeem itself, but up to this point, you are correct. I also don't mind the intention behind the move and would support any similar move Hahn would make moving forward too.

Phillips is a very bad option for the Sox moving forward. He turned 33 in June, is signed for $39 million over the next 3 seasons, and this is the 3rd year in a row (base year of 2011) where his numbers have decreased. He is just not a good player anymore. I love the idea of acquiring a guy like Cueto (who is getting absolutely no love for the Cy Young and should be - 2.33 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, leading the NL in IP) or Latos, but at what cost? A guy like that is going to cost a hell of a lot plus you'd have to re-sign him following the season.

I think, even with the long layoff, we're building on-air chemistry between us and annunciating better and more fluidly too. I haven't listened to it yet, but that has been the impression I've gotten as we've progressed through these. I think we'll also open it up for ideas when we get closer to the next one, but if you have ideas (or expansions on your ideas...I like the idea of focusing on a few prospects as opposed to just touching on them, but which ones do you guys want to see?) please share them. I think a more focused show allows us better preparation too as opposed to trying to touch on everything with a broad brush and missing a lot of guys. (and, if I had to guess, I think the guy with the most questions among fans in the system right now is probably Courtney Hawkins)

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 09:18 AM) And I'm open to suggestions of who fits this profile on the Free Agent market. I've got Pablo Sandoval and that's it. Hence why developing Wilkins into something that is tolerable would be a big score. He won't be Sandoval but he's also not going to be a 9 figure cost with a high chance of breaking down late in his contract due to body size. In 2016, if he's not extended beforehand, you could get my interest in Heyward to fill 2 of those roles, but that's a year away, no guarantee he hits the market, and he's also going to be a $100 million+ player. And of course, if we commit to a couple multi-year deals in 2015, there's no big money coming off the books next year. If something happens in the trade market to shake this up, spectacular. Masterson makes a lot of sense to me as a Rodon placeholder, so I get that and he shouldn't be that expensive. Relievers are a definite need, but to put together a contending team we're going to need to upgrade the expensive part of the pen, which is the very back. We could try to scrape things together again and get lucky next year with cheap fill-ins, but then what's the point of spending $100 million on a Sandoval if Petricka + fillins is all we have at the back end and we are relying on "Masterson returning to form" in the rotation? Anyway, that's my point. It's extremely messy. To make this team competitive, Ricky needs to pull off something in the trade market to fill some of these holes. If he can't do that, then Wilkins fits one of this team's needs and has a nonzero chance of filling it for several years. If there's a better option, tell me who it is and I'll be game, but I don't like the ones I see right now. I don't know why you're limiting this to the free agent market. I'm not sure the LH bat will come from the free agent market.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 10:53 PM) I was thinking earlier today while I was taking a s*** about how a good way to quantify a teams pitching performance might be to compare total batters faced to total outs recorded in the full season, and then just comparing that figure to the league averages. You need to face a minimum of batters anyway, but how many extra PA are we allowing beyond what is necessary and how does this compare to the league average? Then just go down the list, each pitcher gets a ratio of batters faced to outs recorded, each number is compared to league averages, and we base our decisions (i.e. the Danks decision) on this. Rather than money. Anyway stats are great in theory. But you want as many useful ones as possible and you want them to be as unique as possible so you can find different opportunities in them and so on. I think if we ever get access to batted ball MPH's - how hard guys hit balls off of pitchers on average and on what pitches - it's going to totally revolutionize how we evaluate pitchers. You look at a guy like Belisario's peripheral statistics and see his ERA of 5.43 and you kind of wonder how that's possible - solid K numbers, fantastic ground ball rate, good control, not prone to giving up a homer, an inability to strand runners (which is and isn't skill...some luck, some lack of pitching), and a higher BABIP than normal - and you think to yourself "well why has he been so bad?" I think some of it has to do with dumb luck (seeing-eye singles and duck farts) and some of it has to do with the fact that opponents hit the ball really hard against him. If and when we ever get access to that (in future situations), we could hopefully help figure out which is luck and which is not. A ground ball rate that high is good, but if you hit a ground ball 100 MPH into the holes on either side of the infield, there are not many guys who can get to those. Strong contact, as opposed to weak contact, will allow more hits and runs. I thin it will also allow us to see why some guys who consistently outperform FIP and xFIP - Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson - will be properly credited with the numbers they do as I think that will be worked into the equation. That to me, more than anything, will help us determine the true quality of a pitcher.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) They claimed Pedro Florimon off waivers from the Twins. Not postseason eligible so the MLBTR site can't quite explain it but that was the corresponding move. It'd be a long-term move. They feel they have good depth or plenty of viable options long term in the outfield but don't feel confident about their middle infield depth moving forward, so they've essentially swapped Florimon for Perez. Now they get a week and a half trial with Florimon to evaluate him and see if they feel comfortable with him as a depth player moving forward. My thoughts on Florimon would say good glove, bad singles hitter. Probably a .250 hitter with limited discipline and power at the plate but solid bat control. His peak is probably a below average to average SS in the majors but he's currently a bench player or lower.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 07:51 AM) Why would the Nats DFA him in mid September? The Nats don't care for his long term value and want to clear the 40-man spot to get a look at another player who is not currently on the 40-man. Or to clear room for someone who was on the 60-day DL to return from. I don't know the Nationals situation, but those are the two likeliest outcomes.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) He does this but he can't catch up to the fastball, that's the main issue. There are enough FB thrown in the Majors for a guy like Wilkins to be a good bench option/PH if he could hit them but from the ABs I've seen of him he gets overpowered over the plate at 92-94 and that's not going to work ever. Again, he also has 34 appearances in the majors. That velocity is typically better than he's seen all year. It takes time to adjust your timing at the plate. QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) I'm just appalled anybody could ever say anything negative about the guy after what he meant to this franchise. You're a homer for Konerko. We get it. People have opinions. Paul Konerko is not the Messiah and people can say negative things about him if they like. I can guarantee you that most people on here are grateful for everything Konerko did for the organization and there are going to be a minutia who don't are generally bashed fairly well. We've been over why people would be upset about him on the roster this year ad nauseum and it would be best if that isn't brought up again. That's all anybody was ever talking about.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) Wilkins looks like a guy that sits dead red fastball in AAA but can't recognize or hit a breaking ball or changeup to save his life. Maybe in AAA without advanced scouts and guys that don't have the best command he just sits on fastballs. He also looks like a guy who's only had 34 plate appearances at the MLB level and has yet to adjust to the speed of the game yet. I'm not saying he's an answer (nor do I think he is), but writing someone off or coming to a conclusion about their game after 34 plate appearances is, if nothing else, premature.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) we need a Eury and a Leury A LITTLE BIT OF LEURY IN MY LIFE A LITTLE BIT OF EURY BY MY SIDE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISES IS ALL I NEED A LITTLE BIT OF AVISAIL IS WHAT I SEE A LITTLE BIT OF ADRIAN IN THE SUN A LITTLE BIT OF ALEXEI ALL NIGHT LONG A LITTLE BIT OF DAYAN HERE I AM A LITTLE BIT OF THEM MAKES ME THEIR MAN

Looks like the inner city vote finally came in, defeating Quintana and Quetzcoatl by a landslide.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 01:47 PM) You didn't understand my point. I know that walks don't count for or against your SLG, but in order to make up for any number of walks, you would have to SLG 1.000 in order to replace that production. Actually, a little bit less than 1.000 because hits advance runners in situations where walks don't, but my general point is that it is awfully hard to replace the production of a walk by swinging. I see what you're saying now. It's true too. I try and shy away from using OBP and SLG anymore unless they are used in unison because they work so much against each other that if you said "so and so is good because he has an OBP of this" (or the exact same thing about his SLG) you open up about 10 cans of worms.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) You get one base every time you walk. That translates to a SLG of 1.000. There may be very small zones outside the strike zone where an elite hitter can manage a SLG of 1.000 or better by swinging, but overall, a walk is a better outcome than you can expect by swinging. There is a very short list of hitters who have become elite without a high walk rate. Vlad at 8.1% is the one who first comes to mind, and that isn't even all that low of a walk rate. A walk correlates to slugging percentage of 0 (or technically, undefined). Slugging percentage is total bases divided by at bats and a walk does not count as an official at bat nor a total base, so the outcome of a walk is 0 TB/0 ABs, and dividing anything by 0 is undefined. If you draw a walk, your OPS will be 1.000. If you get a single, your OPS will be 2.000. This is part of the flaw of OPS. While a single is more valuable than a walk, it is not twice as valuable as a walk.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 11:19 AM) Mauer is a bad example if you're trying to make a case for how important the hit tool is, because since he came into the league the only guy with as many plate appearances as him and a higher OBP is Pujols. His greatness is not tied to his batting average alone. I think we all can agree that you want a variety of hitters in the lineup and that a team full of Dunn's is no good. Here's what it boils down to though: Take the 10th best batting average in baseball this season (Posey, .310). We can't look at a .310 hitter's average alone and know he's a useful presence in the lineup. Then take a guy with the 10th best OBP (Abreu, .382). We can say with much greater certainty that guy is helping you. Even more than this, you can look at the 10th best wOBA (.387, Miguel Cabrera) or the 10th best wRC+ (149, also Miguel Cabrera) and say with 100% certainty "That is an elite hitter."

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) It is easier to find AB and hit totals for individuals in newpapers and box scores than plate appearances. I don't think anyone is disagreeing OPB not being important. But is is funny how offense has dropped. Jim Thome, took a lot of grief around here. He was very streaky and station to station, and was on the team when some of this board became anti home run. But his first 2 years with the Sox would actually lead the league on OBP this season. His 3rd season would be top 25 and his last top 20, and that is with what would be maybe top 5 HR totals. I don't think it is all steroids. I have said before, I think Bud deadened the ball a little to give the appearance his steroid policy is working. I think pitching is becoming even more specialized, which makes it harder to hit. The White Sox have played 5 nine inning games this season that took over 4 hours to finish. A lot of that is pitching changes, trips to the mound, batters taking their time,etc. They have to fix it. Generations attention spans are shrinking. Most 4 hour games on a Tuesday night suck, Went to the Angels/Twins game on 9/5. It was a 4.5 hour game over 10 innings. It was over 4 hours to get through 9 innings. It was the least pleasant experience I've ever had at a baseball game and I love watching baseball live. The next night, it was a normal 9 inning game that lasted 3.5 hours and it was a fantastic game. Yeah, the pace of the game needs to be picked up. It would make it much, much more entertaining. One of the best games I was ever at was a game shortly after the all star break in 2010. Buehrle faced off against Pavano. The Twins won 3-2 and Konerko had a chance to drive in the tying run in the 9th (runner on 3rd, 1 out) but struck out or popped out. The game was finished in just over 2 hours. It was awesome.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) No, it's the other way around. He has Gerhard and was offered AP. Right, and that's the way I'm thinking. Gerhart, no matter how s***ty, is guaranteed to put up points at some point this year. AP is not.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 07:12 PM) Batting average is both important and easy to understand, but no one is saying that Ben Revere is a better hitter than Nellie Cruz. But if you went by just batting average, which is what greg seems to be implying, then you'd have to assume Revere is a better hitter. I've never said it was meaningless or unimportant, but there are most definitely more important and better statistics to use than batting average.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 10:59 PM) You OBP-only people need to accept the BA folks. Some people just find high BA hitters to be more exciting players to watch, especially in this current era of generally low average hitting. Runs still need to be driven in. I don't think there is such a thing as an OBP-only person. I am a good baseball player person and I appreciate good baseball players. Just as apples come in different shapes, flavors, and colors, so can baseball players.

So I was offered Adrian Peterson for Toby Gerhart. I honestly have no idea what to do. On the one hand, my team is 0-2 and my running back situation is garbage to begin with, so Gerhart might actually be an upgrade. On the other hand, if Peterson comes back this year, he's like 100x the back Gerhart is.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 02:47 AM) I'm f***ing serious man, I think it's a great idea. Look, I made a prototype. This is arguably one of the 10 greatest posts in Soxtalk history.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:33 PM) Batting average doesn't matter yet 100 percent of all announcing teams mention it out loud during broadcasts almost every at bat and SOME barely flash OBP on the screen. LOL. Nobody has said batting average doesn't matter, but it's a very shallow statistic that doesn't tell a hell of a lot. It's like considering the quality of a living room set and coming to a conclusion based on the middle cushion of the couch. This season, solely for the bat and the bat alone, would you have rather had a .260 hitter or a .300 hitter? You're response should not be "the .300 hitter!" but instead should be "What else have they done?" Because then I tell you the .260 hitter is Nelson Cruz, who just leads the majors in home runs, while the .300 hitter is Ben Revere, who doesn't walk and doesn't hit for power. Suddenly batting average has become a hell of a lot less important.

I think you all know how I voted.