witesoxfan

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 09:03 AM) It's also sounding more and more like he will receive a qualifying offer costing the signing team a pick. That makes it even less likely that the Sox will sign him, even if they "only" have to give up a 2nd round pick. Also, the idea that he'll sign for 2 years is a bit of a pipedream at this point. You're looking at 3 years minimum right now and probably $15 million per.

QUOTE (MAX @ Nov 3, 2013 -> 03:57 AM) Huge ego. Don't care for anything he said to be perfectly honest. I don't believe him, either, regarding his statement regarding the game as a business. Too much time passed and it doesnt make sense. Give the money back if that is the case, or to a charity. To me, it sounds like he is happy with the money he has, afraid of the challenges ahead, and comfortable making excuses. If what he said were true, he thinks so highly of himself, and of his ideas of baseball, instead of the reality of baseball today (the same as the year he signed), that the only option would be to quit to remain the special type of person he thinks he is. He is most likely a coward, hiding behind all of that nonsense. QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 3, 2013 -> 07:41 PM) I don't think he was trying to send any kind of message like that. I think he was just saying that he couldn't love the game anymore when it was his occupation. He had other passions pulling him away, as well. He said he envies the guys that can go out there and really love every moment. He found that he had developed a love for another job (in academia) and that his current job (baseball) made him lose his passion for his greatest non-occupational passion (baseball). I don't think he intended it to be some kind of indictment on baseball at all The idea that you lose passion for the thing you love once it becomes your job is absolutely nothing new. There are people who get into sports and working within the industry and they grow to resent it simply because it's work and no longer play. There are some who can handle it and still love it for what it is. Cardenas was obviously not one. I have no problem being cynical of everything, but I don't think this was for attention and a failure to deal with the struggle at all.

I thought the officials screwed up all weekend. I understand that the TJ Graham play in the Bills-Chiefs game was a fumble. I have no problem with that. But when Marquise Goodwin goes down the field, catches and controls the ball against his helmet without it ever touching the ground, and then lose it after he's been tackled/downed and you call it incomplete, I'm going to be upset. All I saw all week were terrible calls made by the officials.

I'm rolling this week. Gonna end up being too little, too late, but at least my team is finally putting it together.

QUOTE (daggins @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 06:45 PM) Those are only the worst offenders. The Sox have top-15 production in only one position, and bottom 3 in 5 or 6 positions. The numbers make you appreciate KW's unique approach. Its sort of a miracle they even had any winning seasons. #23 in C WAR - 13.1 #22 in 1B WAR - 13.8 #29 in 2B WAR - 6.4 #14 in SS WAR - 21.3 #30 in 3B WAR - 1.5 #28 in LF WAR - 8.6 #30 in CF WAR - 17.7 #28 in RF WAR - 16.9

#1) Granderson, when fully healthy and producing well, is a better player than De Aza. When he's at the point he's been the past 2-3 years, he's a marginal upgrade that will cost $10-14 mill a year more than De Aza. #2) His game is exactly like Dunn's. People who act like they are upset with Dunn because he's a DH or 1B are crazy. People are upset with Dunn because he's an all or nothing offensive player. Granderson has a bit of speed, but that doesn't do any good when he's striking out 170+ times. #3) I have strong, strong doubts as to whether or not the Sox will actually be involved.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 08:13 AM) Is the entire $10M bonus paid up front? In other words, is he actually getting $17M for 2014? It obviously depends on the language of the contract, but that's how these things are generally handled with that money being allotted towards this year's luxury tax number.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 06:38 PM) It's going to be someone like Buck or Suzuki. There's just no way they're bringing back AJ, and McCann/Salty will ultimately either be too expensive or stay put. I wish they could figure out a way for Viciedo to catch, haha. He's been put at every position on the field except for CF and the middle infield! Navarro and Carlos Ruiz are two other options, albeit far from ideal. I'd actually amend my first sentence to say Buck/Suzuki/Ruiz. They have to get a veteran in there who could catch at least 100-110 games and lead the pitching staff. Ruiz is an ok idea. He is a bit older, but is also a guy that improved as he got older. How much of that was PED related is a different story, but he's honestly not a terrible buy low option. And yes, contingency. It's been a long week. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 09:43 PM) I don't think it's a good idea to to use Santiago or Quintana to get a catcher. Any trade involving those two has to bring back the best hitter possible 26 or under regardless of position. Santiago and Quintana are the best trade chips we have they need to be maximized. I do generally agree. But, not that it's happening or likely or even being talked about other than here, Castro is the kind a player the Sox should target with Quintana/Santiago. Sanchez is not. I implied, NAY, suggested it earlier, but I would not do anything with him. I do like Sanchez, but the only starter I'm trading for him is Danks, and I'm not taking any of the contract. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 09:53 PM) You're stuck in what guys did in the past. Ellsbury doesn't win the Sox anything, he might get them back to 80 wins. Money wasted. This is where I think you're crazy again. Ellsbury is a 6 win player just on his own. I honestly think just adding Ellsbury and excluding any surplus value the Sox get from Abreu to Konerko makes the Sox an 80 win team. Ellsbury does so.much.right that it'd he hard for the Sox to lose. He's still a great, great player.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:50 PM) Roughly, for reference: fWAR = Sacrifice completeness for the sake of accuracy bWAR = Sacrifice accuracy for the sake of completeness Yes. It's really only in pitching where you will see such varied results too. There's a comic somewhere in the universe plotting both ERA and FIP where ERA is full of peaks and valleys and is otherwise an ugly, sloppy mess where FIP is basically a level line throughout. You can see if in Vazquez's time with the Sox too 2006 - 4.9 fWAR, 2.7 bWAR 2007 - 5.0 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR 2008 - 4.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

If you have LeBron James, you prefer Steph Curry to Derrick Rose

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:41 PM) Right, I understand how posting works, but that still doesn't mean the team that signs him won't end up essentially paying out $25M a year for his services, regardless of how it's divvied up. Right, it's a stupid amount of money.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:37 PM) $100M plus the baseline 6 yrs/$60M that Darvish got, and we are talking about paying this dude over $25M a year. How insane. The $100 mill is paid up front to the team, and it's just for the right to negotiate. If you don't sign him, you don't pay it. Also, a lot of times the two organizations will work out some kind of deal that is worth the posting fee.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:34 PM) Also, Garcia coming off TJ isn't a sure thing. Wasn't it a labrum? Either way, he's a guy I'm staying away from.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:26 PM) It would take at least Ramirez, DeAza and Semien to get that deal done. Maybe one more piece....anyone in our system not named Erik Johnson. Joe Kelly's not that good. He's a #3-4 pitcher who might pitch better than his peripherals, which I just touched on in the other thread, but I would not even care to inquire about him. He doesn't strike guys out, doesn't throw a ton of ground balls, and doesn't have pinpoint control. I really didn't think he had great, great stuff either, but he does throw hard.

The thing with FanGraphs is that they use peripherals (FIP) in their WAR equation rather raw numbers (ERA), which is what B-R does, because they believe it to be a better indicator of individual success and a better predictor of future numbers. This is the point of contention where I legitimately have not decided which side of the fence I am on. Pitchers can pitch to their defense...if you have a good shortstop, throw changeups and sinkers to lefties down and away and sliders on the outerhalf and sinkers down and in to righties. That will hurt their peripherals (to some degree) but it's a legitimately smart and efficient way to pitch. Then sometimes there's dumb luck where a green pitcher will hang a breaking ball and a veteran will see it, line it up, and simply mis-hit and roll over it into a double play. It's the same result on the page but one was done intentionally and one was done basically by accident. At the same time, if he did not have a good defensive shortstop, he could still look to do that and the balls would end up in CF for singles. It is involving the team, rather than what he is independently capable of. What Javy's fWAR suggests is that he's an incredibly talented pitcher and that, in a vacuum, he would be a #1 or #2 starter. He has been that good in the past both for the Sox and other teams. Baseball is not played in a vacuum, and he would leave pitches over the middle of the plate far too often and when he did, they got hit very, very hard. With his stuff, he could have been a contender for multiple Cy Youngs. He simply didn't have SOMETHING right, and it resulted in him failing miserably. Meanwhile, Mark Buehrle never should have made the majors, but here he is, best Sox pitcher of the last 15-20 years. This is the most obvious case of fWAR not being the end all, be all. It's still a great statistic.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:24 PM) Well there goes any chance the Jaguars had of making the playoffs. Hahahaha

Jesus, that Dodgers team might win 120 games

During the mid to late 2000s, Williams made an organizational shift in philosophy to shape his team around high velocity, high-quality stuff types of pitchers and then he let Don Cooper shape those guys into studs. It's worked. My confidence in this team developing pitching is at the point where I almost hope they never sign or trade for high priced pitchers. Hitting is bad.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:28 PM) Zunino or buy low on Jesus Montero from the Mariners? D'Arnaud from the Mets? Those are all I can think of. But I don't see them giving them up I don't see Montero as a guy that can stick at catcher. I still have no problem buying low on him.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:19 PM) Can you name any options who make sense? Gary Sanchez from the Yankees comes to mind immediately of those ranked in the top 100 pre-season (the Mariners nor Mets will trade Zunino/D'Arnaud). Other guys like Tony Sanchez and Jason Castro make some semblance of sense as well, though Castro is less prospect territory and more "turning into a stud" territory. That is one guy I would give Quintana up for and not think twice. That route is less than optimal, but it's an option.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:13 PM) Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely. LOL

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:02 PM) In another thread, I suggested Martinez and Wong for DeAza/Ramirez, but that's not going to be enough from our side and I'm not sure who else the Cardinals would want. They don't need pitching. And Tavares is going to play CF for them in 2014, I forgot they had depth behind Jay/Robinson. Craig will probably be in RF and DeAza's best position is LF, and Holliday's not going anywhere. Martinez is locked out of the rotation with Wainright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Lynn ahead of him. That would leave their 3rd starter in the post-season, Joe Kelly, without a starting role. I think they'll look to move Lynn before they look to move Martinez.

Catcher is first, second, and third on that list. If they don't come up with some sort of constituency plan at catcher this offseason, even with Abreu signed, it's a complete failure. You can't count on Flowers or Phegley. If nothing else, bring another catching prospect into the system, even if it means trading Santiago or even Quintana for one. The system has quite a few infielders right now with quite a few of them likely capable of covering 3B if necessary. They have 3 capable outfielders and could look to bring in more. For all intents and purposes, they have zilch for catchers right now.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 02:45 PM) Nobody's saying to non-tender him, though. Or Beckham... Obviously they both played big parts on the 2012 team, they're capable of playing on a playoff team, in theory. That said, I'm sure that Hahn won't get back what he wants in return in trade. Probably with Beckham, it has to be another busted prospect, like Dustin Ackley, change of scenery type of trade like the Borchard/Thornton move. Priority number 1 is to get rid of De Aza sure as hell seems like the Sox need to get rid of De Aza no matter what.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 02:26 PM) This should tell you where his market lies. Danny Knobler ‏@DannyKnoblerCBS 6m Will Yankees make $14.1 million qualifying offer to Granderson? @JonHeymanCBS reports they're still deciding. http://cbsprt.co/HzgWb9 They want the compensation, they can afford to take the risk, but I really don't think they want him back. That's the hold up. Still, I think they'll end up taking it.