witesoxfan

$28 million a year for Samardzija would be an absolutely horrendous contract. All giant contracts have the potential to be absolute busts, but if Samardzija is even a 3 WAR pitcher per year in that contract, it's a massive overpay. He would have to be an absolute ace. Max Scherzer technically got 7/$210, but based on the deferred money, MLB is valuing its present day value at 7/$190 (or so). That's $27 million per year for a guy who's put up 4.5 WAR, 6.4 WAR, and 5.6 WAR seasons. He also has Boras as his agent, who has a tendency to extract more value out of teams as well. If he got 5/$120, it'd be a little better, but that still seems too rich. Hell, if he wants $140 million, give it to him over 6 years. At least that spreads the cost out a bit.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 08:01 PM) http://philadelphia.suntimes.com/philadelp...ks-jets-mariota If this is true it sucks the Bears didnt get a higher pick. That's a hell of a long ways away and a lot would still have to go right. I'd hate to see the Jets benefit that much, but the Bucs WILL pick a QB, and the Titans could certainly use a QB too.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 03:48 PM) At the take out/delivery pizza place I worked at the tips for take out always went to the kitchen. That's probably why I do it today. I guess I was thinking more of the carside pickups at restaurants where you would normally go and dine in. I can't talk for pizza or Chinese places as I've never worked those.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 04:26 PM) I'm glad you corrected this because it bothered me.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 03:34 PM) The guys making it. In any restaurant I've ever worked in, the cooks getting tipped is incredibly rare. Typically, they will factor in the cost of labor plus the cost of food plus overhead costs into the meal prices. I was a line cook cumulatively for about 3-3.5 years all together, and I can count on two hands the number of times I was ever tipped out by servers. EDIT: this is also why I'm always incredibly leery of an establishment selling a 6 oz sirloin or something like that for $8. To me, that reeks of poor quality food, grill marks, and a quick zap in the microwave.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 03:19 PM) That means if Bears wanted to completely unload Cutler (basically cut him), it shouldn't be an issue as it would be astonishing if he didn't get a contract worth $15M (that would literally be impossible). I think it is much more likely than any of us previously thought that Cutler is moved sooner vs. later. I still think the ideal scenario has us getting a pick for him. Teams will be desperate and to be frank, we are selling Jay at his lowest value, but understand if the org wants to make a change. I just wish it was in a year where there were more attractive QB options available. On the flip side of this, are teams really going to think a $16 million cap hit (or something like that) is going to justify giving up anything for him? In reality, how much better are you with Jay Cutler at $16 mill versus Josh McCown at $4-6 mill plus the additional $10-12 mill you can add to the roster elsewhere while retaining whatever late draft pick you would have to send to the Bears? I still don't think anybody would trade for him. I think, in that situation, you're gambling whether you work with him on the roster at $16 mill or you cut him and hope he signs elsewhere and doesn't screw the Bears over. He's made a ton of money in his career already. What's stopping him from signing with a team for 1 year and $8 mill and trying to recoup his value? It's not a move you see in football a lot, but Jay Cutler is in a situation where something like that actually makes sense. All things considered, I think Jay is the QB in July.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 02:28 PM) The Sox are back in win now mode. If Rodon pitches like he can, they will make a space for him, somewhere. I think this is still a team looking big picture though. I would be beyond surprised if Rodon breaks camp with the Sox in any fashion unless he is absolutely flawless.

That's like when the White Sox had Carlos Lee in LF and his brother Carlos Lee was playing catcher in the minors.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 01:39 PM) I think most people think the Rodon thread is most interesting, but to me, it's catcher. I would love for the Sox to at least be considering the idea that two catchers could play Flowers off of the 25 man roster. None of these, obviously, are sure things, but Soto/Kottaras could be noticeably better than Flowers/anyone else if the aforementioned are actually healthy. I want them to take the two best catchers north, regardless of who they are. I think one of those is going to be Tyler Flowers due to the pitching staff's comfort in throwing to him. I don't know the pitch framing data, but I seem to recall that Flowers was middle of the pack. He's also mentioned previously that he's aware of it, so I think it's something he's going to try and improve as well. There were also good and bad signs with his pitch selection at the plate last year - he swung at fewer out of the zone, but also made more contact on balls out of the zone as well. Beyond that, he was also roughly the same previously at swinging at balls in the zone but was swinging through them quite a bit more often as well.

QUOTE (woods of ypres @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 11:00 AM) I don't think BABIP is a one size fits all stat. I think once on CC Brain Kenny even said if a player continuously has a high BABIP its okay because its "his line", or something like that. Right, BABIP isn't a one size fits all thing. I'm basically saying that, even after 538 plate appearances last year, we can't be certain that his true talent BABIP is .359. It certainly COULD be, but he also had 380 plate appearances with the DBacks too, and his BABIP with them was nowhere near as good with them, thus lowering his career BABIP to .333. That is something that will take a long time to establish properly and that it will still fluctuate season to season. Austin Jackson has a career BABIP of .353 but the past two seasons it's been about .330.

My biggest fear with Eaton is his BABIP. Pretty much everywhere he's gone, he's had extremely high BABIPs, and that was no exception last year with a .359. Given his tendency to drive the ball into the ground (59.7% GB rate last year), that's likely going to be elevated to some extent, but .359 is a bit extreme. However, it's not impossible for players to maintain a high BABIP. Looking just from 2010 through 2014 and attempting to control by taking out elite hitters (Trout, Cabrera, et al), we can see that Starling Marte is at .363 over 1293 PAs, Dexter Fowler is at .355 over 2090 PAs, Michael Bourn is at .350 over 2487 PAs, and Chris Johnson (yes, Chris Johnson) is at .355 over 2091 PAs. (for your own fun: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...&sort=12,d. Also, you will have to click the BABIP tab again to sort again) So a high BABIP is not necessarily a bad thing or an omen of regression, especially if he continues showing an ability to spray the ball around the field. A quick look: Balls hit to LF: 160 (44.9% GB) Balls hit to CF: 127 (62.2% GB) Balls hit to RF: 120 (77.2% GB) We don't have ball-off-bat speed, but having seen enough of Eaton, he hits a lot of worm burners, and if he continues hitting the ball on the ground extremely hard, he should be able to maintain a high BABIP. To get to a .400 OBP though, I think he'll either have to significantly increase his BB%, decrease his K%, hit fewer fly balls and more line drives or ground balls, or some combination of all of that. The last two are sort of self-explanatory (and a decreased K% assumes that he's making the same sort of contact on those balls, which ultimately may actually detract from his BB%, not add to it, which may be for the worst). Last year, he walked 8% of the time, which resulted in a .362 OBP. Using his line from last year, here's what he'd need to get to the prospective round number goals,: .375 - 9.3% BB rate (50 walks in 538 PAs) .400 - 11.9% BB rate (64 walks in 538 PAs) It's an incredibly daunting task, especially when you consider that, among players with 500 plate appearances last year, only 3 (!!!!!) had an OBP over .400. You may recognize their names: Andrew McCutcheon, Victor Martinez, and Jose Bautista. I'll be happy with .360 and I'd be ecstatic with .375.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 19, 2015 -> 09:14 AM) Can I at least get a sigh, please? I think I've earned it.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 04:53 PM) Thanks for the chart. Nice addition. As for rejecting guys who don't hit leadoff enough, someone else is filling the leadoff slot for that team, so why not try comparing apples and apples? Eaton is never going to be one of the best hitters in the game. But he could become one of the best leadoff guys. Obviously, he has to stay on the field first. For me, it's because I just don't buy into the idea of a "leadoff hitter." Yes, someone has to hit leadoff because they have to be the first hitter of the game for their team, but it's really just a guy in the lineup after the first inning. I want someone who can get on base in front of the power hitters. Adam Eaton does a pretty good job of that. I'm hopeful Melky will do that too. Why can't we just genuinely compare hitters to hitters? Adam Eaton is a good hitter because he gets on base, but he doesn't hit for much power. That's OK. Frankly, Jose Abreu would be a good leadoff hitter too. Other people may be able to give an opinion on where they feel Eaton ends up, but I personally can't. He's a good player and I'm glad the Sox have him.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 04:24 PM) Guys with more than 300 plate appearances at leadoff last season, sorted by total offensive runs. Threw baserunning runs in there too to show that Eaton is near the bottom, to nobody's surprise. Why 300 PA's? I don't know, seemed appropriate. It really depends on how you want to define what a leadoff hitter is. If you want to reject a bunch of other guys because they didn't hit first in a high enough percentage of AB's, what's even the point? I see a few guys on that list that did a better job than Eaton but as long as he shows last year wasn't a fluke, we'll be happy. Agreed with everything. I'd personally like to see Eaton gap a few more, but if gets on at a .360 clip and can only do so with a .100 Iso, then I'm OK with it.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 04:20 PM) You have no idea. Some people will get a bill for 38.75 and will just round up to 40 bucks, leave two 20's and walk away. There was one time my GF and I went to Applebees just because we had to eat somewhere. I typically hate chain restaurants, but we figured it'd be cheap. We got to our table and our server was young, nervous, inexperienced, and bad all around, and we could tell right away. Our food came out and it was not good - which wasn't his fault! - and we got the tab, like $40 buck. I tipped him $10 from my card, gave him an extra $10 in cash, and wrote him a note to "stick with it, it'll get better." No idea whatever happened to him, but hopefully something good.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 04:14 PM) anthony fenech ‏@anthonyfenech 2h2 hours ago The Tigers say "it's optimistic Miguel could be ready close to Opening Day." I think Miggy is going to start entering the phase of his career where those nagging injuries are harder and harder to play through until it's impossible to play through them. Same thing happened to Albert Pujols too. Not to say he'll ever be a bad hitter, but I think we are beginning to see him break down. Oh, and after this year, the Tigers are on hook for $248 million over the next 8 years. Have fun with that one.

Jesus, a $5-10 tip on an $80 tab? I don't make a ton but I do everything I can to always tip between 18-25%. I'm also more sympathetic having worked in food service before, but those people are just cheapskates. It's like people that don't tip bartenders. If I'm drinking heavily, I may miss one now or then, but I will always tip $1-2 per drink.

Jose Abreu being a top 10 hitter in the major leagues would make him better than 99.9% percent of hitters in the majors. I'd agree with Reddy and say that it's a very optimistic prediction. It's not an unrealistic prediction by any means necessary, but expecting him to merely be a top 50 hitter isn't unrealistic either, but it's quite a bit more pessimistic. EDIT: OK, my math was off. He'd be better than 97% of regulars if we assumed that there would be exactly 9 hitters for all 30 teams in the majors. There will be more hitters than that, and 99.9% isn't actually as far off as you'd think, but it's not exactly correct either.

What separates Adam Eaton from #2 hitters though? That he hit #1? I know it's an especially slow period in baseball at this time of year, but I just don't particularly worry about his rankings. All that matters to me is that if he continues hitting like he did last year, then he's going to be a good tablesetter for the Sox. Then he needs to stay healthy.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 12:10 PM) Wow. I'd take that Braves package over the one we sent any day of the week. Fried is far and away the best player in either trade. I think Samardzija is more valuable than Upton too, plus the Sox got Michael Ynoa. Generally, I think we underrate Josh Phegley and the thought around the industry may be that his ultimate ceiling is that of an averagish catcher in the majors, while Semien's upside is that of an above average player.

QUOTE (3GamesToLove @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 11:51 AM) I don't like this thread title. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 11:55 AM) Yeah, should have a ? after it. Fixed

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 04:47 PM) I was surprised to see him list Upton to the Padres as one of his best but said nothing of the Samardzija trade. Now that the dust has settled and has been cleaned with Pledge, that really seems like the best trade of the offseason. I'm biased, but it really seems like the Sox gave up low ceiling talent for a strong #2-3 and a high ceiling relief prospect. Worst case scenario, the Sox are going to get another draft pick for Samardizja, and that was part of his justification for giving the Padres as good of a grade as they did on that trade. Got our answer: I certainly don't think so, but to each his own.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 10:19 AM) I addressed this already but I will repeat. I don't have the specifics and I'm ok with folks thinking otherwise. It was pretty darn obvious watching the games last year. But this is a new year and we will see and if you all don't "spaz out too much" I'll be here to comment with more specifics ok? That's fine, and I'm definitely not saying he's perfect or there's no need to improve. I've been baffled quite a bit at times. What I will say is that, from what I've seen of Ventura as a manager, he's perfectly adequate.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 09:40 AM) Perhaps, but that is only speculation. We have no idea how anyone else would run the 2014 White Sox Pen. How could they have managed it any differently to improve the outcome? Those pitchers were terrible.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 09:38 AM) Not for me it's not. When I was watching the game and the decisions he made at times were just baffling. I'm hoping for improvement but I am very skeptical. Which choices? It's hard to come to a place, say "he makes bad choices," not give examples, and be taken seriously. Because, really, when given the choice between chickens*** and pigs*** to put into a late game situation, those decisions are going to end up looking baffling more often than not.