witesoxfan

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) How often did Ozzie ride the hot bench hands in '05? I'm curious to know how many times guys like Timo & Ozuna had consecutive starts of 3+ games over the regs. About the only two I can think of occurred in 2008. Ramirez was the opening day CF but was absolutely lost and a trainwreck at the plate. Carlos Quentin got a couple of games early on in place of Jerry Owens, and he started killing the ball. Then Ramirez kind of got going when playing 2B for Uribe, who was hitting like dogs***. Crede got hurt and Ozzie needed someone to play 3B for him, so he turned to Uribe to be his primary 3B. That's about all I got offhand. FWIW, Ventura made strikingly similar moves during the 2012 season. Also, to answer the original question, Ozzie rode the hot hand all year, because that team was hot all year except for the month or so where Podsednik got hurt (and Cleveland couldn't lose).

So basically the idea was "let's make the logo as big as the helmet itself"

QUOTE (oldsox @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 07:16 AM) Was Bassitt on the list? No. I imagine Kiley would peg Bassitt as a 40 future value player, meaning his below average and easily replaceable. Doesn't mean he's bad or doesn't have a future, just that there are a lot of guys like Bassitt around the minor league game.

Sale only ended up with 115 pitches even after the Trout homer, so suggesting that he was gassed or something is a little crazy too. And Trout hit an absolutely great pitch. Jeff Sullivan outlined it in June. Maybe Ventura should have gotten Sale out at the first sign of trouble, but that's his best pitcher and one of the best in the league at a good pitch count point. He's going to trust him to get out of it without giving up 5 runs and almost every time, he's going to. It sucks that he didn't that one time, but I would have found it hard to fault Ventura no matter what he did in that situation.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 04:27 PM) He factored team situation into it heavily (mentioned in comments that it was the entire reason that the Victor Martinez deal wasn't on the WORST list), so I'm not surprised that the Sox didn't make his list, since he's been one that thinks the Sox are just fringe contenders this year. I was surprised to see him list Upton to the Padres as one of his best but said nothing of the Samardzija trade. Now that the dust has settled and has been cleaned with Pledge, that really seems like the best trade of the offseason. I'm biased, but it really seems like the Sox gave up low ceiling talent for a strong #2-3 and a high ceiling relief prospect. Worst case scenario, the Sox are going to get another draft pick for Samardizja, and that was part of his justification for giving the Padres as good of a grade as they did on that trade.

And then there was this too: 1:00 Comment From Chris Thoughts on Micah Johnson? Complete omission was kind of weird to me. 1:00 Comment From Chris Seems very aggressive to drop Micah Johnson all the way out of the top 200. Reason? 1:00 Comment From Chris Why is Micah Johnson not a top 200 prospect? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Chris thirsty LOL

If we're bringing stuff over from the Kiley top 200 chat, we may as well bring this (as I believe this is also our Will): Comment From Will Any 2015 draft prospects come to mind (HS or College) that have funky deliveries coupled with a track record of elite performance? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Carson Fulmer is your guy: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-mlb-draft-top-51/

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 12:18 PM) By definition it would be the end to the first and the beginning of the second. It seems quite trivial to section them off like that. If a guy is hot, a guy is hot, and if he's not, then he's not. QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 12:26 PM) Thanks for letting me know who you are. Is there an ignore feature on this site? click on user name -> options drop down option -> ignore user

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) 2014 he really didn't play. 2013 he stunk 2012 better left In general he stinks. How many times did he play back to back games with a hit in three years? Without looking I am going with none. That seems incredibly subjective. Why hits in consecutive games? By this theory, if a guy goes 4-4 with 4 homers, then 0-4, then 4-4 with 4 homers, he's not hot.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:49 AM) It ends the streak. Not playing ends the streak. It's not harder than that. That's too overly simplistic for me. Why does that end the streak?

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:33 AM) Not sure if this is serious. I'm dead serious. Why does benching a player who is "hot" simply end that hot streak? Are you implying that a guy who has been hitting well and then sits out a game will suddenly and unexpectedly not be "hot" anymore?

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:17 AM) EDIT: Benching a player ends the Hot Streak every single time. What empirical evidence do you have of this?

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:47 AM) I'm not talking predictive. Predictive is odds based and with that you can just use the sheet which anyone can do. This is riding the hot hand. Yes the hand will end. But one player in a lineup ending a hot streak does not mean the game is lost. It could mean though that the streak continues and thus could mean a win. It's also the opportunity to see if perhaps a bench guy can be something more. The streak shouldn't be interrupted. This maximizes value. I'm glad you are not the manager of the White Sox.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:59 AM) Logically I am riding the hot hand. In your scenario you need to only look at percentages and those that do not succeed from day one won't be provided an opportunity to succeed later. That's poor managing. Conor Gillaspie goes 0-4 with 3 K's and the White Sox lose.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:27 AM) Not only is Conor hot, he's on fire. It's be foolish to bench him. BTW, Conor is hitting .333 against Price in his career. (Small sample size of course) And because of that small sample, you should disregard it and look at the bigger picture, because Conor Gillaspie is not good against left handed pitching. Essentially, you are throwing logic by the wayside. That doesn't seem like a good way to manage.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:17 AM) Your way is that anyone that can read percentages can manage. Are there times that you bench a hot hand? Of course. It's much, much more rare that I believe you are indicating. So say the Sox have a series against the Twins in Chicago, and Conor Gillaspie goes 8 for 13 over the weekend against Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Ricky Nolasco. They are heading to Detroit after the finale, and David Price is the starter in the first game. You are telling me that you are going to start Conor Gillaspie because he's hot, completely disregarding the fact that he's an absolute hot mess against left handed pitching?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 12:34 PM) None of you have commented on what was, at least for me, the most interesting and debatable thing that he said. He asserted that Beckham was the best defensive second baseman in the League. He also said that he was the best at turning the double play. Many on this board would disagree, vehemently. Even the notion that he might be the starting second baseman raises questions. Hawk said that Sanchez could not cover the ground, or throw like Beckham. Thoughts? He's nowhere close to being the best defensive 2B in the league. He is good at turning the double play.

QUOTE (staxx @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 05:12 PM) Anyone else getting incredibly bored with destiny? I've done everything, HM crota etc. and am now just stuck collecting items. I can't believe they have NOTHING coming out until MAY It gets a bit tedious at times, but I enjoy it quite a bit still, although I have to admit I haven't done as much because I have to hang out with my girlfriend. And I'm not making a "video game NERD" comment, because if I were single, I would legitimately be playing this game probably 3-6 hours a day, every day.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 04:32 PM) If Rodon does not pitch with the Sox this year, will he be in the same position next year with the arbitration clock issue? If he does not pitch in the MLB this year, then yes, he will be in the same position next year as he is this year, and it's certainly possible the Sox would delay his clock, although given where they are at, I'd consider it more likely that he'd break camp with the Sox at that time. Assuming there's no injury, I'd be very, very surprised if he doesn't pitch in the majors this season.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 04:42 PM) Low Risk= minor league contract with a $1.5M ceiling. High Reward= a good bullpen arm that throws 50 innings and doesn't consistently blow games. If you honestly don't think players like this can change the outlook of the team, you obviously didn't watch much of last year or any team that had a bad bullpen. Eh, I sort of agree with him. It's a good move and I'm glad the Sox made it, but when it comes to low risk/high reward moves, Jesse Crain is probably the biggest low risk/high reward signing of the group. If he's healthy, he's going to be a very valuable member of the pen.

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 01:02 PM) It's not like Bonilla was all that good away from barry bonds. He didn't play with Bonds in New York, Baltimore, or Miami. He was pretty good in all 3 locations. I believe your assertion is patently false.

I FINALLY get the title. "Charles Barkley declares WAR with SABR studs" because WAR

I am dutily using my humbuggered administrative power sources and hereby dubbing flavum as person inherently wrong in the first name thread title. or Kyyle. Yeah, I blame Kyyle.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2015 -> 05:19 PM) I am very much looking forward to this season. Which of course means that on the first play of spring training Jose Abreu will run knee first into Chris Sale's labrum and both will be done for the year. It would all be OK. It was almost 10 years ago that we thought Mark Buehrle fractured his foot and everything that Williams and company did leading into 2005 was all for naught. http://articles.latimes.com/2005/mar/22/sports/sp-bbnotes22

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Feb 12, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) That's pretty much exactly what Danks did last year. He was really good about 70% of the time, and really bad about 20% of the time. 10% of the time he was somewhere in between. Look at these 6 starts: 5/2 vs. CLE: 5.0 IP 8 ER 5/18 @ HOU: 4.2 IP 7 ER 6/22 @ MIN: 5.0IP 6 ER 7/20 vs HOU: 4.1 IP 7 ER 8/5 vs. TEX: 4.2IP 9 ER 9/3 vs. MIN: 4.2IP 7 ER In those 6 starts, he pitched 28.2 innings with 44 ER (13.81 ERA). In his other 26 starts (21 of those were "quality starts"), he pitched 165 innings with 58 ER (3.16 ERA). Obviously if you throw out every SP's 6 worst starts, their numbers look better, but Danks is on a whole different level. If he can limit the stinkers a bit better than he did in 2014, Danks is serviceable in the 4 spot ($ not withstanding). Interestingly enough, his worst starts came against Houston, Minnesota and Texas, three of the worst teams in the AL last year. I don't expect big things from Johnny in 15, but I don't think he's going to that big of an issue. The $15.75M could obviously be better spent, but that's water under the bridge at this point. Those 6 starts accentuate why it is exactly that Danks is so mediocre. Outings like that are a loss almost every single time and short outings like that absolutely destroy the bullpen too. If it's the first game of a series, you're then using your bullpen to try and eat through 4-5 innings. That's not a good situation no matter who's pitching them. Short starts do happen. I'm hoping that Danks or Noesi can prove to be an average pitcher this year, and then that Rodon turns in a great performance for the Sox starting in May or so. If so, the Sox may very well have the best rotation in the AL.