witesoxfan

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 24, 2015 -> 08:31 AM) I agree with you there definitely is some value from a guy who qualified, but the Hector Noesi, Coop has fixed him love isn't coming from reality. There are probably going to be players that dissappoint this season. He is a prime candidate if you are expecting much. The other guy I would be careful to put too high is Zach Putnam. He had a lot of shoulder issues last year. He was really good, but it wouldn't be very surprising to me he turns into the Zach Putnam that has bounced from team to team the past several seasons. I agree that he could, but there was a distinct change in Putnam's pitch selection. Previously, he'd been a fastball/splitter guy, with the occasional slider (approximate usages were 60% FB, 35% SF, 5% SL). With the Sox this past year, he was splitter/"slider"/fastball, and the "slider" itself changed to the point where it's identified as a slider but I think it's a cutter. Its velocity was previously around 80 MPH but with the Sox, it was at 87, while his fastball topped out at 90. Beyond that his usages were crazy - 55% splitter usage, 20% four seam fastball, and then you get some goofy disagreements in the pitch recognition types - Pitch Types classifies them all as a slider and they say it was 25% usage, while PITCHf/x says it was 13% two-seamers, 6% cutters, and 4% sliders (I'm rounding and the numbers aren't perfect, but they paint a decent enough picture), and the PITCHf/x data is what leads me to believe that he's throwing a cutter now. In short, no, I'm not counting on him, and perhaps the increased splitter usage is what's hurting the shoulder, which makes him incredibly unreliable anyways, but he was a really good pitcher last year after a change in approach and talent, so maybe that is his true level talent now.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 24, 2015 -> 08:24 AM) I think it's true that Noesi could have some upside left, and I've always liked him, even when he was on the Yankees. He was a long-time favorite sleeper of mine. But let's stop pretending that he's been a good pitcher so far, haha. That's all I'm saying. I definitely agree. And to go back to flavum's point, I have no problem starting the season with Danks and Noesi in the 4 and 5 spots. It's true that you don't want to get out to a start so rough that you can't climb out of the hole, but it's still a long season and giving those guys anywhere from 3 to 7 starts to see if anything has changed is perfectly fine. However, if they receive >20 starts and they pitch like they did last year, I do not believe the White Sox will be contenders.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 24, 2015 -> 08:10 AM) Of those that qualified for the ERA title last year: By ERA, the fourth worst pitcher in the majors was Hector Noesi. The fifth worst was John Danks. By FIP, the third worst pitcher in the majors was Hector Noesi. The fourth worst was John Danks. By xFIP, the second worst pitcher in the majors was John Danks. The tenth was Hector Noesi. By fWAR, the sixth worst pitcher in the majors was Hector Noesi. The ninth was John Danks. TL;DR No matter how you slice it, both sabermetrically and traditionally, John Danks and Hector Noesi were among the bottom ten pitchers in the entire major leagues last year. I'm guessing that much of this is spring training fluff pieces, so I'm not reading too much into it, but the quotes say that they believe in Noesi. The numbers indicate that there's nothing special about him, and that's how I feel about him, but perhaps there's genuine talent change on the way. Noesi was a fairly well regarded prospect so I wouldn't completely rule out the idea of him turning a new leaf over and being a legitimately good pitcher, but I'm not holding my breath and he's a replaceable piece at the moment.

If I were running a team, I'd want my coaches to be aware of the value of statistics, but you're not going to say "hey Jeff, your FIP is a little high, maybe you should focus on striking guys out so we can lower your FIP, which will bring out your true talent."

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 03:46 PM) Sure, and while writing that I felt as if I was underestimating Victorino's value a bit but he's got a hefty price tag and a long line of injuries. Something has to give there and unless Hamels is wearing a Red Sox jersey in April, it's going to be two or three of those veterans. I think you're right, at least to some extent, and Victorino would be a wonderful addition as insurance for Eaton/Garcia too. I'm just not sure what the cost would be. Do the Red Sox gamble on some guys whose stocks are lower, like Davidson or Erik Johnson? Do they inquire about a lower level guy like Michalczewski? Maybe they want a few of the younger power arms too. It's hard to say exactly.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 03:11 PM) What is interesting to me is the Red Sox have so many options in the OF. Hanley is LF, Betts/Castillo in CF/RF, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino. Boston has writers saying Victorino is going to start but I don't buy that. At least a couple of these guys are going to be on the way out two months from now and if the Red Sox were pushed to DFAing or trading Victorino+cash I would be interested. Great makeup, great baserunner, RH bat to give LaRoche a break against lefties, etc. Obviously he has injury issues but he was awesome as recent as '13. If the Red Sox go with one of their younger guys and can't move him/DFA him the Sox would be the fourth team to get a crack at him. I think they can still get a solid prospect for Victorino.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:38 AM) i believe you are missing Edinson Vólquez -sp. but the point i have always said, get another sp who is quality, who is experience, to help eat innings. to help protect the sox top 3 sp's. and if needed to step in, in case of injury. the sox top 3 sp's and the lineup is tough, bring in Rodon who will be developing and the pen will be 1 tough sob group to beat. 1 yr contract, when jeff s goes, and this other pitcher, the sox have rodon stepping in and then the other prospects the sox have deverloping. Edinson Volquez signed a 2 year, $20 million deal with the Royals.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:23 AM) anyone who could have been signed to a 1 yr contract. Dustin McGowan Brandon Beachy Joe Saunders Franklin Morales Bruce Chen Roberto Hernandez Kyle Kendrick Carlos Villanueva Paul Maholm Felipe Paulino Scott Baker Ryan Vogelsong Erik Bedard Wandy Rodriguez Charlie Leesman Aaron Harang Brett Anderson Kevin Slowey Chris Capuano Gavin Floyd Colby Lewis Brandon Morrow Sean O'Sullivan Yohan Pino Radhames Liz Justin Masterson Jason Lane Blake Beaven Rudy Owens Jair Jurrjens Brad Mills Those are all the pitchers who signed one year contracts of some sort with teams other than the White Sox. The White Sox themselves brought back Scott Carroll and also brought in Brad Penny. Who is the difference maker in that group of pitchers?

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:14 AM) i am on the bandwagon of the sox making the playoff, this team has that possibility and yes it has holes. i just don't trust the sp to go the whole season, esp with rookies in the backend. the innings that will be thrown is going to be alot, these pitchers hasn't thrown that much. the sox need 1 more sp to help, even if it a 1 yr and walk kind of pitcher. the minors, after this season may be ready to help, but i rather it not be this yr as a gamble. this is a great team that Hahn has assembled. OK, then which one would you have preferred they signed? Brandon Beachy? Jesse Crain has thrown more innings than Brandon Beachy has the last two years.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:09 AM) then read my post. I have been. That's why I'm replying and stating that your belief that Reinsdorf is cheap is ridiculous. He's also not the sole owner but instead the chairman for the board and they all make collective decisions.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:07 AM) and at the same time not getting 1 more sp. Who? Which starting pitcher?

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:02 AM) it is absolutely absurd to keep putting words in my mouth, i have never said spend 190. better yet, show me and others where i stated this..... come on, you are very quick to pass this judgement with a huge exaggeration, or will you disappear for a while knowing you were wrong?? You said spend like the Dodgers or the Red Sox. They spend $190 million a year. I'm assuming by suggesting such, you are talking about a $190 million payroll.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 11:00 AM) exactly and that is why the sox will do just enuf to bring in the fans without over spending to winning it all. What move would they have made that would take them from pretender to contender that would have been a justifiable long-term cost? Paying Max Scherzer $15 million each year for the next 14 years? Bringing in James Shields for $19 million a year when there's no guarantee that his acquisition promises a division title and immediately kills any chance that Samardzija is re-signed? Fiscal responsibility is a good thing too.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 10:52 AM) he spends enuf to get the fans but not enuf to win it all. look at bos, ladodger and many teams making the investment to win it or to put them in position to win it. all i have been saying this off season is to make that one more investment in pitching. not to go hog wild and to spend. don't soft soap it as well by "we are going to get players in spring training" knowing full well it is minor leaguers who were not on the 40 man roster. So because the White Sox don't spend $190 million on their payroll, they're cheap and don't want to win and don't want to invest fully to win it all. Because Reinsdorf doesn't want to win, he just wants to give off the perception that he cares about winning and wants to fall just short of winning the division and World Series because he's a crooked ass businessman. Frankly, that's absolutely absurd.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 10:08 AM) Brandon Beachy has pitched 111 innings since Ozzie Guillen was managing the White Sox, and has pitched 30 innings since Kevin Youkilis played 3B. It is fascinating anyone really would think he is the answer. He's talented, but I tend to agree. Perhaps his future is in the bullpen where he works shorter stints.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 09:29 AM) I have a question for the group to ponder. Would it beneficial to the White Sox to not be able to come to terms with their 1st rounder this year? It would only leave the team with picks in rounds 4-40 and the Sox would only have about $2 million to spend on the entire draft. My idea then would be to go nuts in International Spending this year. In this scenario, the White Sox would pick 9th next year and own their own 1st rounder. They may even have a third 1st rounder as compensation for Samardzija. The White Sox could have one of the biggest draft budgets ever by doing this. I know it would be tricky to pull this year and blatantly skirting the rules but it'd be an awesome strategy. Add a little talent to system through draft this year. Go nuts in International Market, spending way past the restriction and lose the ability for next year. (White Sox never do this) But in 2016, could have potentially 3 first rounders with lots of $$ to maneuver and no budget in International market. This would be awesome. Is this plan crazy? I believe so. Talent now is always going to be better than talent later.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 09:16 AM) But what you can assume is that teams with more extreme line ups, like this group, will have much higher standard deviations of runs scored, leading to many times where they lose games because of the short ends of those uneven distributions. Teams with more stable line ups and run scoring structures, will have more stable runs scored per game deviations, and less variations. I don't necessarily know that we can. I'd like to see a regression analysis done, but the variation in game to game runs scored is incredibly small as it is. Even if it is, I'd prefer an inconsistent, high-scoring offense to a bad offense any day.

QUOTE (icroca @ Feb 22, 2015 -> 08:21 PM) That would imply every other team offered them a total of zero dollars which I doubt is true... I bet they offered them more than the other 29 teams though.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 22, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) http://beta.espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/12...-nerds-too-easy Point #2 is the reason why I previously argued that Cubs' batters with high strikeout rates IS a real cause for concern. Stat nerd himself Nate Silver says that strikeout to walk ratio is one of the most predictive stats for a pitcher's win-loss record. Taking the other side of this, unless the Cubs' big strikeout guys are getting on base at a high rate via walks or high batting average, it's a real problem. You can't take the other side of it as a perfect parallel though. Pitchers face a ton of different guys, and that will level out in the long run. Hitters are who they are, they don't operate the same way as pitchers. If you have 12 good hitters who all strike out more than average, why would they not score runs? They're still good hitters. I'm not here saying that their strikeout rates are perfectly fine or they shouldn't worry about it, but saying they won't be effective solely because they strike out a lot is, I feel, a little short-sighted.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 22, 2015 -> 05:34 PM) this is the sox trying to save money, how much profit does the owners need. The White Sox guaranteed the most years to players in terms of guaranteed contracts this offseason and spent the 4th most money. This "JR is cheap" bit you pull from time to time is ridiculous. The White Sox have spent a ton of money.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 23, 2015 -> 08:30 AM) Where does that extra $30 million penalty go to? Bud Selig's pension? An empty pool. They cash the check for $30 million (getting ones), fill the pool, and all the execs at the MLB corporate office go skinny dipping.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 03:03 PM) I already mentioned Ozzie in my initial reaction post, saying that's why I'm not incensed Robin said it. I'm just saying you're better off using coachspeak. Q: Robin do you expect the playoffs this year? Is this a playoff team? A: "I absolutely love the acquisitions the front office made, just love them. I'm anxious to get on the field and getting to work with these guys. I know we're going to have a group that wants to win as many games as possible. Obviously we'd love that to result in a postseason appearance. The goal every year is to win the World Series." With my answer, the media has no story. That said, I loved the brash Ozzie, so I'll take the brash Robin as I said before. If my manager continually gave canned bulls*** answers like that, I'd lose a hell of a lot of respect very quickly.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 02:34 PM) Vegas says we're a .500 team and u better believe Vegas is right most all the time. Please explain to me why Vegas would be right in this situation. QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 02:51 PM) I love the Sox, but there's no way Robin should be expecting playoffs with this club. Sox have to come out and play ball and reverse the mojo from the last few horrific seasons. Why shouldn't he expect the playoffs? He has a team that has a lot of talent. Would you prefer he say "I do not expect to be in the playoffs and in fact, I look forward to not being in the playoffs once October comes around"?

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Feb 20, 2015 -> 11:26 AM) I really liked that Crain signing. I still say, if he's healthy, he's your set up guy. That's a gigantic if.

In a dream I had, the Sox were 62-72 at one point during the upcoming season. I would say that is grounds to terminate Robin Ventura right now.