caulfield12

Jon Greenberg wrote an article on this a long time ago…basically arguing that the city split was at roughly 60% Cubs fans, 40% Sox fans, but that the Cubs enjoyed that bounce of an additional 33% of their attendance from tourism/out of towners/big group sales. One of the consequences of having their minor league affiliates so far away has been felt in that regional loss where the Cubs basically own eastern and central Iowa due to the Des Moines AAA team, then they always had Peoria/downstate until it collided with Cardinals fans. Once upon a time, the Sox had South Bend in the Midwest League, but ceded that territory of NW Indiana as well. The Brewers, Twins, Royals/Omaha and Wichita, Cardinals have all done a MUCH better job controlling their territorial regions. How many Sox fans in Indianapolis, for instance? Meanwhile, the Sox are obsessed with saving money by having their four teams in roughly the same geographic vicinity, but the Sox fans in North Carolina pretty much have no choice but to follow the Braves, Nationals or Orioles. Same thing with AZ training facilities. It’s like we don’t even exist compared to the Dodgers, DBacks, Padres, Giants, etc. At least before we had that Sarasota/Florida loyal fanbase. Penny wise, pound foolish. Just look at the radio and t.v. coverage for the White Sox vs. the Cubs, Twins, Brewers, Cardinals and Royals across the Midwest. Sox are getting absolutely trounced there.

F

The last time this happened was 30 years ago, 1992, the second year of New Comiskey. I was 22 years old then, which means that almost two generations have come into a Cubs-dominated world. Right now, in the midst of our supposed multiple championship/s window, we are 18th in the major leagues in attendance. 24,246 per game, unlikely to break the two million mark and just as plausibly finishing at 1.8 million or so. The Cubs just drew 34,366 and 39,219 for a split doubleheader with the Mets. They have yet another unprecedented losing streak going, are heading for 100 losses, and are soon to trade Contreras, Happ, Robertson and possibly Hendricks. Yet they’re STILL 7th in MLB attendance, at 32,574, just barely behind the 6th place Astros who have five consecutive ALCS appearances at 32,756. Around 2.45 - 2.6 million projected attendance. I don’t expect the White Sox will ever outdraw the Cubs again…in my lifetime. Unless they: 1) Build a new stadium/relocate in Chicagoland (why this is unlikely we know all too well) 2) Relocate to another city/market 3) JR steps aside and a new ownership group and/or Melanie Hobson et al run things in a completely new and innovative way, basically starting over from scratch It’s almost sacrilege to talk about leaving Chicago, but with ongoing flight from the city/state due to taxes…and the A’s and possibly Rays as well both on the move, not to mention the stadium lease coming up relatively soon (Texas has now had three stadiums in the same timeframe), it’s hard to imagine this not being considered by at least SOMEONE with deep/er pockets than the Reinsdorf group. Yes, the Sox are still highly or relatively profitable right now…but that situation seems ever more tenuous if the current rebuild falls completely flat. I know everyone talks about the 70’s and most of the 80’s as being “down times” for the franchise, but it’s really hard to imagine things looking much bleaker. Yet the best hope seems to be remaining in the AL Central and centralized Chicago location, where they can outspend the competition by 25-50%, if only because the odds of success would be even less on the East or West Coasts. The only way to stay in a Central division (AL or NL) would be moving to Nashville, San Antonio/Austin (two Western teams in TX already), or Charlotte, but then they would be east and north of the Braves. Indianapolis and Memphis aren’t quite big enough, same with Louisville. Mexico City seems too crazy. Does anyone see a way out of this other than firing TLR, Hahn, KW or changing ownership? How? And would signing Machado, Harper, Wheeler, etc. really have “saved” the franchise, or even for example trading for Juan Soto and giving him $450-500 million?

The point is even if we had Juan Soto, and completely gutted the farm system and future to accomplish that...we arguably wouldn't have enough starting pitching to do any damage in the postseason. That's assuming you can trade for him without giving up Cease or Kopech. As it stands right now we invested about $45 million into Keuchel, Lynn and Cueto/VV. Maybe we keep Cueto and maybe he continues his run next year, but the odds of that are, what? 25%? 33%? 50%? And at what cost? You're still betting on Pollock, Giolito, Kelly, Lynn, Grandal, Moncada and Jimenez to turn things around? Even if Soto produced like the true star he is, you are more than likely in the same situation the Angels and Phillies find themselves trapped in...where you have to eventually countenance a dramatic teardown/rebuild as you max out payroll flexibility. The White Sox are now suddenly going to go over a $200+ million payroll after the Reid response from season ticket buyers already after the disastrous offseason and continuing TLR-Gate? No way in hell.

We are talking about Soto and the Sox, but let's look at a slightly more realistic example of the Twins with Correa... "It's going to be costly to acquire what is necessary to turn this around. Does the FO want to do this? They have alot to consider. Does what they do impact the chance that Correa stays? Can the Twins realistically afford a $35 million dollar player when they probably need to spend money to get the pitching righted. This goes beyond this season. If they know they need pitching, how much does his contract impact that ability? I personally think the FO is in a tough spot, and Correa's contract is a big part of it. If Royce Lewis was healthy letting Correa go after this season might be the best option BUT, he is not. Unless the Pohlad's increase payroll, not sure we can get the pitching we need if Correa stays. If the Twins fail this season, the whole Correa signing may actually set the organization back rather than moving it forward. If Correa leaves, who plays the position next season? It seems the multiple knee injuries to Lewis, along with Correa's contract, may actually be a real problem fixing the pitching issue." https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/57522-can-the-twins-right-the-ship/page/2/#comments

Wants to play for a winning team that likely advances to the playoffs rather than wait out a rebuild for the next 3-5 years? Or he watched with a vested interest the Harper and Rendon FA sweepstakes?

280ZX and Up and Down the...

Is that like a Trojan horse? Sneak really good players into Chicago to sabotage the team because TLR wouldn't know what to do with them?

The only thing that matters now is how much pressure Hahn and TLR are feeling over job security. It's easier to make a shortsighted trade for today, let's say for Colson Montgomery, if you're not going to be around to clean up the mess in the future. Of course, the disaster of 2011 is what led directly to a similar face saving move with Hahn elevated and Ventura brought in to absorb so much of the blame and disappointment...basically, a sacrificial lamb. One obvious problem is the rotation if you're facing those teams. If you can't rely on Lynn and Kopech is fading...does anyone realistically believe Cease/Cueto/Giolito gets it done? Then if you have to go another starter deep for a seven game series...who?

Seems to have become the Sox philosophy for one full year now with so many of LaRussa’s bizarre lineup choices. Reading over at the Twins’ boards, their fans are also asserting that they’ve been under .500 for weeks and weeks…have a rapidly disintegrating rotation/bullpen and simply shouldn’t make any dramatic trades (Montas/Castillo) because the division is so terrible and the odds of beating NY and Houston so miniscule.

Sorely missed today…Banks struggled twice in a row against Twins’ LHBers.

Is there a Morton’s Steakhouse in Minneapolis? Poor Lance.

Not quite the Larry David Special Sandwich…that fishy effort.

Got rid of Kelenic from line-up?

He actually improved from 605 ops to 645 with the Sox. But one of many 32-34 year old veterans (Erstad at 33) whose best days were already behind them…and terribly beaten up by injuries due to his style of play and baserunning over the years. That 645 would be like Pollock hitting, well, a bit better than 612 or whatever he started today at. Plus Erstad was a better defender at that stage in his career than Pollock is now.

VV, Davis Martin and Lambert are your only other options?

George Bell at least finished 20th in the MVP voting in 1992. Pollock might not even end up with a Top 20 fWAR on the Sox roster… But Bell was pretty much done in 1993 when they really needed him…hence, Bo Jackson among others.

I only remember the fake interest/hype show around Bryce Harper that was as closing to sealing the deal as KW having an auxiliary seat at the Boras Corp table for the A-Rod FA negotiations. But the last really expensive (for the Sox) guy we signed was Melky Cabrera, and that was yet another Hahn Special.

The idea of him coming back to the team next year at $12-13 million is about as palatable as Cesar Hernandez this year or two more seasons of Leury in his 30’s. That’s not all that far off from what some team is going to pay Conforto in 2023.

Worst offseason Sox outfield move since Cory Snyder…

We love awarding $18 million contracts to veteran pitchers in their 30’s but NOT to Carlos Rodon in his 20’s. Idiots… That likely doesn’t happen without LaRussa’s involvement, either.

Here’s a better irony then. We traded Escobar for Francisco Liriano…the Twins then dealt Escobar for Jhoan Duran and he arguably will be one of the three biggest reasons the Twins end up ahead of the Sox ultimately. Not to mention the fact that we missed on our chances to trade for or sign Escobar last year because of an incorrect read on his quad injury…only to come up with the trade for Cesar Hernandez that screwed the Sox over. And we still don’t have a long-term solution at second base.

“a state of affairs or an event that seems deliberately contrary to what one expects and is often amusing as a result” The day was billed as a celebration of the longevity of Jim Kaat’s career and how that perseverance led ultimately to the HoF. Lynn is pretty much the exact opposite, where he pretty much acknowledges that he doesn’t have a very healthy diet and yet makes no attempt to change his behaviors and yet is seemingly surprised by the dismal results. As someone noted, the worst thing the White Sox did was give him a guaranteed contract at that age. Guys like Keuchel and Lynn are or will be finding themselves without a job because they became complacent and started resting on their laurels instead of working twice as hard to remain at that top level. And Lance Lynn actually had the highest fWAR in the AL from 2019-2021 among qualified starters but is nothing like that same pitcher anymore. But now he looks like one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

Fwiw, Lynn wasn’t very good when he signed with the Twins in mid to late March, either. So this isn’t a total shocker. Restarting mid year is never easy unless you are in pretty top physical condition like a Luis Robert.

Have to really work hard to stay in this game past your mid-thirties anymore. Ironic that Lynn’s only about half the way to Kaat’s 25 years and might be nearing the end,