caulfield12

Now the pressure shifts to getting at least one “win” with homegrown Rodon if Kimbrel and Hernandez (both were hyped as moves for 2022 as well the week of those trades) don’t work out… Hopefully it’s a legit offer and not one of those “we endeavored diligently but just couldn’t quite get the proper framework in place that encompassed risk mitigation versus surplus value upside to be one of the top lefty starters in baseball in the prime of his career at age 29” Hahn-speak.

The risk on the downside (especially if the bullpen dynamic from last year is carried forth into 2022) just isn’t worth it. These are the type of moves that never ever go the White Sox way, because they so totally dislike eating anything in the $5 million salary range and up. And $6 million if properly assessed can still get you two 2021 Rodon’s instead of less than one broken down Eaton…if you know the talent and have expert medical evaluators.

Snell is still worth a heckuva lot more than Kimbrel on the open market…and there’s just no way we’re going to be happy with an offseason deal coming off the implosion in the second half and postseason. They risk holding him for 3-4 months in a non-closing role, they’re risking $16 million and not $1-2 or even $4-6 million. it obviously wasn’t a good fit. Next year isn’t going to change that dynamic. If I’m another team, I just wait for the White Sox to get more desperate trying to offload him before it all becomes a sunk cost for the Sox…this shouldn’t be about trying to make Hahn’s deal better than the D- it now ranks as.

Except Gordon was a much better athlete and also had a far better arm than Brantley…who’s on the field primarily for his bat and because Alvarez is the primary DH. Guerrero Sr. had one of the best arms in baseball history, but wasn’t all that mobile after the first half of his career. So you can probably argue mostly arm and athleticism the icing on the cake. In that sense, slimmed down Avi Garcia fits the mold. And Eaton had his best Sox season right as well due to outfield assists before being leveraged in trade.

Conforto hit free agency one year too late, unfortunately; after posting a spectacular 154 OPS+ in the shortened 2020, he managed only a league-average 101 OPS+ in '21, and ask any Mets fan, it sure felt like less than “league average.” The ongoing uncertainty in the Mets' front office isn’t helping matters, though they would reportedly extend him an offer anyway,understandable given his track record of success. But would he accept? The $18.4 million qualifying offer would be a sizable raise over the $12.3 million he made this year, and he'd be stepping into an extremely uncertain market given the year he just had. At 29, he might well prefer to head into free agency next year coming off a better season than the mediocre one he just completed. Prediction: Receives offer, accepts it Rodón’s path has been wild. A year ago, the oft-injured lefty was non-tendered by the White Sox, who months later signed him to a mere one-year, $3 million deal without a promise of a rotation spot. They were rewarded with a stunning season, as Rodón threw a no-hitter, made the All-Star team and will probably get some Cy Young votes. The problem, given his history, is that he had repeated issues with shoulder soreness down the stretch; he pitched just 28 innings in the final two months. This is a tricky one, but because Rodón was so good this year (and managed to hit 99.4 mph in his brief ALDS appearance) that we think he’ll try his luck on the market. Prediction: Receives offer, declines it https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-the-2021-qualifying-offer-choices?partnerId=zh-20211104-496309-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211104-496309-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=nCdHRqxaITklTvrd%2Fd1gnoo2TStugw9Uj3%2FJYC8%2B5FW%2F7j%2B0BVgaVzrGxBQpcgnT&bt_ts=1636032644134

“His leadership style stands out,” said Padres general manager A.J. Preller. “He has honest and tough conversations and looks forward to them, while still motivating his players to go out and play for him.” Perhaps the biggest reason Melvin has struck those balances is his ability to adapt. He admits that he was, at first, hesitant to embrace new-school concepts. "The game has changed a lot, especially from when I first started," Melvin said. "I learned a lot about analytics in Oakland. It was a little painful at times early on, based on the fact that I grew up looking at the game a little bit differently. "But I think it's made me better. It's opened my eyes. Any information that you get, whether it's information that comes from your experiences and/or information that comes from data, you can marry that. That's what I learned in Oakland -- there's a different way to look at the game." https://www.mlb.com/news/bob-melvin-s-perspective-on-padres-season

I thought he was known as just a symbol...drum roll.

No, since nearly every US site is being blocked these days in China...Yahoo.com just this week, I have to keep flipping back and forth between VPN and regular internet and sometimes it just gets "stuck" or frozen because our school WiFi sucks. SoxTalk admins will be happy to know that their website hasn't been targeted for a ban, YET.

The Braves might not want to pay him $9,500,000 next season...they can focus on profitability coming off the World Series. He's one of those guys who won't make your team, nor will he (likely) kill it either, a true complementary player. He's also 33 already. Just don't like adding any position players these days that are older than 32...

But if Rodon can get 3/$45-50...that's still going to be really hard to turn down, too. But just guaranteeing that $18.4 million for one season would completely set the family for life...right now, including the original signing bonus, his career earnings are: $19,311,276 So he would almost double his career earnings with the QO acceptance, putting him at at almost $38 million for 11.9 (plus 2022's numbers) fWAR...

But if Rodon can get 3/$45-50...that's still going to be really hard to turn down, too. But just guaranteeing that $18.4 million for one season would completely set the family for life...right now, including the original signing bonus, his career earnings are: $19,311,276 So he would almost double his career earnings with the QO acceptance, putting him at at almost $38 million for 11.9 (plus 2022's numbers) fWAR...

Except they already have Christian Walker, Pavin Smith (another high first round draft pick) and Seth Beer. There's not really a compelling need at this position, compared to almost everywhere else around the diamond.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=21,d He (Avi) was actually 5th at FG for RF defensive rankings. There were only 9 above 0.0, the rest were in negative territory. Slugger Adolis Garcia (TEX) was the leader, by far, on D. Adam Duvall, Avi and Austin Hays (Orioles) are the other guys between 2-3 fWAR (overall) that play strong/solid defense. Haniger's defensive numbers were REALLY bad. Now whether the White Sox would go after Avi again, Adam Duvall seems a lot more likely the default move since a shorter deal.

Why exactly would we want to take on Cano's bigger deal....while simultaneously making our pitching staff short yet another starter? Maybe just go with Julio Franco or A.Soriano instead...

KW Special.

KW Special.

Don’t forget Cespedes and Colas…

https://slate.com/culture/2020/01/mets-rape-accusation-spring-training-1991.html

Frazier was nearly Cesar Hernandez bad last year...plus the jump to the AL, and you're also having to pay for All-Star performance for a team that wasn't going anywhere. Starling Marte seems like a real possibility, even moreso than Conforto. Ketel Marte would require trading Vaughn, Jimenez and/or Crochet...Burger/Sheets/Collins won't be enough. Semien is a pipe dream.

Shades of Hawk with the Salvy love...

Merrifield is already on the age decline...which is never a good thing when speed is one of your primary assets. Then there's the premium for trading inside the division or with Cubs. Strike that, CLE must have been deliberately sabotaging the Sox with Cesar Hernandez.

And no GM would be smart enough to take that into consideration…? Why haven’t we seen a steady progression of hitters trying to do the same for almost thirty years?

Because he’s just two season removed from a 3.6 fWAR. Because he will cost a closer to Eaton’s 2021 salary than Conforto’s projected 2022 salary. Because he’s likelier to sign with the White Sox than most other teams at even slightly less salary…the Luis Robert discount to play with Abreu and Moncada. Because he’s super familiar with the AL Central pitchers already. Because it’s my birthday so one added rebuttal point.

Can Vaughn be expected to hit even 30-35 homers next year?

Because we only need one, perhaps? In fact, that’s all we needed since TWO years ago, when Mazara and then Eaton and then Leury/Engel/Goodwin/Vaughn/Sheets were the best answers they could come up with. We simply needed one 2.5 fWAR outfielder. Not four.