caulfield12

Would be interesting to see if there was any month to month defensive regression too…as he went from Gold Glove winner to indifferent/unfocused at best.

Robbie Ray most definitely won't be a Sox sign....less chance than Semien, even. Also, still having a hard time imagining $175-200 million going to TA entering his age 31/32 season in 2025.

Avi in CF >>> Burger at 2B

1B/DH/corner outfield types beware.

That's a far better example...unfortunately, we weren't able to leverage that successfully like the Lynn extension. (Obviously, the keeping McCann in-house vs. Yasmani acquisition instead has been analyzed to death, and then some.) The bigger point is that two of the most "under the radar" moves (McCann, Rodon) that only a few baseball insiders noticed produced All-Star seasons.

1) The White Sox didn't break through early in their windows like three classic rebuild from Ground Zero teams we could all name... 2) 1994/2022 parallels...still sting/lurk. 3) TLR...overall lack of advanced analytical approach. 4) Kimbrel and Rodon leaving a bad taste with some if not many. 5) No changes on major league coaching staff after watching the last two months and Astros series. 6) Not (yet) being pushed by AL Central teams to motivate front office responses.

But the Braves were 12th! You're only going to hear about payroll for the last two months of the 2021 season or current commitments being #6, which includes bad contracts like Keuchel and Kimbrel. Which only proves the unprecedented financial flexibility was/is almost gone without even adding a Wheeler, Harper or Machado. As it stands, the odds are at best 50/50 retaining Giolito or TA, for that matter. If our standard is out spending the Twins, though, hooray?

Except investing so much in guys like Robertson, Hendriks and Kimbrel has gotten the White Sox where, exactly? Plus, if they had succeeded with Collins, they wouldn't have had to give out the biggest contract in team history to Grandal. They let Narvaez and McCann go when both were much cheaper options. I guess it was worth it if you believe the White Sox miss the playoffs in 2020 without Colome, but they could have bought a closer for $8-10 million and kept Omar, too.

Probably no luxury tax/redistribution and/or a minimum salary floor for those 5-7 teams that are raking in money but simultaneously making little effort to compete...too bad they can't do yearly relegation like the EPL for the bottom 2 teams changing places with the Top 2 AAA and maybe even a rare AA franchise on a yearly basis. Obvious problem is those minor league records don't mean anything, it should be based on some combination of attendance/revenues/innovative marketing, etc.

How many teams would rationalize losing a compensatory pick as "giving them some sort of home-field advantage with Boras," especially an organization that has rarely dealt with him until the last decade...and generally doesn't buy top-of-the-market superstar players anyway? How many times has a player tied to Boras taken a less than market value contract to instead give a team the 'ole "hometown discount"?

No way in H.E.L.L. the Mariners would go for that trade proposal...

He must be invested in a car company that's struggling due to lack of world chip capacity AND/OR Taiwan Semiconductor/SMIC...definitely the commentary of someone really into their investments. Sounds almost like the chipper spontaneous business riffs of a certain former president free-wheeling away.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yasmani-grandal/11368/stats?position=C Look at his results for 2015-2019. Now if you want to argue that he was more effective in his productivity per game, compared to a full or cumulative season. But he averaged exactly 5.0 fWAR over those seasons, compared to a 3.7 this past year. And he's the most expensive contract overall in Sox history...so it's hard to argue he overachieved his deal or was a "value" acquisition. Not to mention that not having a capable back-up really hurt the White Sox this season, especially defensively and pitch selection...you can't BLAME him for being hurt, but his absences really had an impact on the team (which you could also blame on Hahn, I guess.)

Pretty unusual to see Boras calling out a GM in such a way...while simultaneously praising him for managing his load well (preserving an "asset"). That said, with our draft luck, the compensation pick (especially a high schooler) unlikely to have much of an impact on sustaining the current window anyway.

From all of Hahn's comments, you don't get the sense that you will see this move. More like standing pat with Vaughn/Sheets/Engel and then mixing and matching at DH. Obviously, that leaves you with a pretty terrible defense outside of CF, and the times when Engel's in right (assuming he is back again.) Really would like to see either Marte, but trading Vaughn and some of the other contracts expiring means everything would really be in a state of transition in 2024...like the Twins have found themselves at this season and heading into next year with Buxton, Maeda and Donaldson.

Don't forget Jenks off waivers.

"He's been terrible in convos, and usually doesn't even return calls for 2-3 days." Rick Hahn quotes that will never occur. Obviously, he wants to get back to his closer's role with another contending team.

The real question is are they going to value controlling the payroll in that $175-180 million range or really go out there and aggressively spend on a finishing piece or two...nearing the $200 million mark. Never in our wildest dreams was a $200+ million plus payroll possible, but we're definitely in that vicinity for 2023/24...especially if we are extending Giolito and/or TA. While we have some of those older, higher-priced veterans coming off the books, we also have bumped up Lynn significantly, and there's Moncada/Jimenez/Robert going up in their salaries as well over time. The biggest factor is we don't YET have obvious competition in the AL Central...which means at least for this season they can hold off until June/July instead of committing all that additional payroll money so early in the off season. The only real pressure is advancing in the playoffs, rather than getting there in the first place (which is obviously a sign of progress, but there's also the danger of complacency we saw in the second half this year with nobody to really press the White Sox.) In fact, looking at what the Braves did with their four adds to OF/DH only strengthens that argument, as well as the Cardinals' second half surge.

Kimbrel=Alex Rios in the all-time pantheon of interesting contract maneuvers...obviously, much less of a commitment financially but pretty much universally-disliked for their time with the Sox

Just the ballpark estimate of what similar profile pitchers at his age and performance level are going for... The other thing he has going for him is actually proving he can compete in the postseason over the last two years. Both guys are really tough calls...we obviously were willing to go long-term for Wheeler and Tanaka before him, but those pitchers have been few and far between for the Sox since Danks' deal went south.

They still aren't going to sign Gausman for about the same amount they're unwilling to extend Giolito...

Depends if you're as confident in Katz as the Giants were with their staff evaluating guys like Gausman, DeSclafini and Alex Wood. The obvious point there is not to buy at peak, but to take undervalued or overlooked buy low guys and turn them into assets for your team, like Rodon and Lynn this season. The bigger point is they all become much higher risks near $20 million, with just 2-3 exploding deals capable of sinking the team if you hit those potholes. And we don't have the farm system depth on the pitching side to cover for them like on the position player side of things.

Cabrera had 4.4, 4.8, 3.5 bWAR in 3/4 seasons before signing. =12.7/3=4.233 Do we expect Conforto to beat that? Hmmm….And he got 3/$42 million seven years ago. Adjust for inflation, $48,666,666. 4/$65 extrapolated out over four seasons, to adjust for Cabrera being older. Exactly the same contract everyone’s speculating on Conforto receiving to win his services. Or was Rick Hahn simply overvaluing/overpaying Cabrera…? Ah yes, that domino effect to get Robertson and LaRoche on the Sox FA bandwagon, too. Hmmmmm.

See Cain 2012, Bumgarner in 2012 and especially 14…the Cubs had Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks in 2016. Royals in 2014-15 the only counterexample, Chris Young their best numbers and Yordano Ventura ace stuff but not yet fulfilling his full potential.

It’s not revisionist to say the Cubs got a better return for Kimbrel when we didn’t even really need him compared to Bryant, and which also would have been a much tougher pill to swallow had he led the White Sox to the World Series in their arch rival’s uniform. That would have been a disaster for Ricketts, from a PR standpoint.