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Everything posted by caulfield12
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Giolito says there hasn't been talks on an extension
caulfield12 replied to maxjusttyped's topic in Pale Hose Talk
That's fine if you can guarantee at least one ace out of that group of pitchers to replace Giolito... -
How good will Luis Robert be, and how quickly will he reach his peak?
caulfield12 replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Arguably the highest ceiling in the game, along with Franco, Acuna, Tatis, Jr. Soto might be number 1 overall if he had the defensive tools for CF. Big Bellinger fan, as well. -
If we can add one of Greinke, Scherzer, Bundy, Gausman, McCullers, E.Rodriguez...or perhaps Salvador Perez in their walk years. https://www.mlb.com/news/players-in-walk-year-before-free-agency-in-2021?partnerId=zh-20210301-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=Efpg%2FnAP74GfM%2B7J16JKmHtWj0FuTrNG2puuZpUCEi949h%2B4ZYHOh0mUfVqavQy7&bt_ts=1614602867953 Of course, everyone in baseball is monitoring the five stud SS’s along with Kris Bryant, particularly Story and J.Baez.
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It’s a bizarre environment that’s confounding even the most seasoned economists and investors: an unusual mix of sentiment seen in 1999, just before the dot-com bust, the period a decade ago after the 2008-09 financial crisis, and the early years of the roaring 20s after the pandemic a century ago that concluded with the crash of 1929. The perfect “Goldilocks” scenario could still arrive: faster economic growth with limited inflation, perhaps gently letting the air out of the biggest bubbles. But darker scenarios exist, including a big spike in inflation, a popping of all of the bubbles at once — with big risks for investors who got overextended — and an economic recovery that hits turbulence. Another quote from previous article...do we still have another 10-15% run in the stock market due to huge earnings growth (and even more stimulus spending, not to mention IRS refunds catching up) in the second half of the year, or do inflation/interest rate fears and irrational exuberance finally catch up and knock everyone back for a loop? Pretty amazing to think we were nearing Dow 18k roughly a year ago.
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It wouldn’t be 2020/21 without more news off the field than on it for the Cubs...also, just saw where Dave Portnoy at Barstool was trying to add on sports book features, so everyone’s chasing the fast and easy money right now. Tom Ricketts, top Chicago Cubs executives and investment advisory firm The Raine Group have formed a special purpose acquisition company seeking $325 million for a technology-media-telecom acquisition, including possible acquisition of a sports team, a sports gambling firm or a digital media and podcasting opportunity. The SPAC, Marquee Raine Acquisition Corp., filed with the SEC Friday afternoon. The blank check sponsor is an equal partnership between Raine, an investment firm often involved in sports, including the pending sale of the Minnesota Timberwolves,and Marquee, a business formed by Cubs executive chairman Ricketts and other executives, which launched a regional sports network this year. The Marquee Raine SPAC identified a series of eight “macro themes” in its prospectus that it says guide its thinking about an acquisition. Among them is ”real money gaming,” in which the firm expects “to see a proliferation of investable opportunities across the real money gaming ecosystem” in the U.S. “Sports-enabled assets” are also cited among the themes, which the SPAC sees creating attractive investment opportunities thanks to the rise of global sports platforms, legal sports gambling and single-entity leagues. Digital media, audio podcasting, live entertainment, health and wellness, interactive games and technology are the other themes cited by Marquee Raine. SPACs raise money at an IPO to make an acquisition later on, but by rule cannot have identified a target ahead of time. For that reason they typically reserve the option to make an acquisition in any area, while identifying preferred sectors to equity investors. https://www.sportico.com/business/finance/2020/chicago-cubs-raine-group-spac-1234617358/
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SPAC’s, likely the next great speculative bubble to pop? Among the more worrisome is the incredible explosion in SPACs, often called blank-check companies, which are essentially pools of cash from investors looking to acquire hot startups and take them public while avoiding the traditional initial public offering process. Former Trump administration officials like Larry Kudlow and Wilbur Ross are now among the investors setting up their own SPACs, as are famous entertainers and athletes such as Shaquille O’Neal. “I’m more concerned about the bursting of bubbles in cyber assets, gold and SPACs,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US. “I mean Shaq has a SPAC. What could go wrong?” https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-bubble-trouble-frothy-markets-043041879.html https://www.sportico.com/business/finance/2021/sportico-sports-spac-tracker-1234623199/ Notice Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, Ricketts/Crane Kenney (Marquee-connected), A-Rod, Jeff Smulyan, etc. SPACS: WHAT A SPECIAL PURPOSE ACQUISITION COMPANY MEANS FOR SPORTS https://www.sportico.com/feature/spac-special-purpose-acquisition-company-sports-1234616048/ SHAQ SPAC II: O’NEAL, DISNEY VETS MAYER AND STAGGS SEEK $300 MILLION FOR MEDIA BUSINESS https://www.sportico.com/business/finance/2021/shaquille-oneal-disney-executives-1234623077/ Forest Road II is led by Thomas Staggs and Kevin Mayer, who share the roles of CEO and chairperson of the proposed business. Staggs is a veteran of Walt Disney Co., including as its chief financial officer and as lead of its valuable theme parks business. He also is credited with a leading role in the acquisition of ESPN. Mayer is also a Disney alum, having led the internet businesses, including ESPN.com. He is also said to be the architect of Disney’s direct-to-consumer strategy that started with the acquisition of BAMTech—the business behind MLB’s wildly successful app—which led to the launch of Disney+ last year.
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Jimmy Cordero...the forgotten breakout candidate
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Just responding to the point about breakout candidate...to me, that means someone who is playing nearly everyday, at least for a position player. We can say he might have one Brent Lillibridge season in him (and perhaps it was 2020 already), but that's not enough playing time IMO to declare him as a "breakout" when it's mostly a bench role. -
How good will Luis Robert be, and how quickly will he reach his peak?
caulfield12 replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
At least 8 fWAR, but he's going going to need to markedly increase his walks to get there. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-cameron/1070/stats?position=OF A better "floor" is probably Mike Cameron, although there's certainly a possibility he could still end up lower than that (which wouldn't be shameful, certainly). From age 26 through 31 (1999-2004), he put up TWO 5.3 seasons, TWO 5.5 seasons and his bottom was 3.6 and 3.8 in those six peak years. #3 is your best hitter, which is Abreu (for now), and will probably end up as Vaughn or perhaps Eloy Jimenez in the not-so-distant future. The other plausible argument is for non-Covid 2019 version of Moncada there (as your 3/4 "best" hitter). I actually prefer Moncada second, with Anderson 3rd and Robert 1st (longer term, 2022 and beyond), simply because I think Moncada will be quicker as the much more experienced player to develop the skill-set and patience for the #2 spot. Of course, TLR will be tempted to put either Eaton or Madrigal there, which will drive most SABES aficionados nuts, to quote Greg775. Going by the Mike Cameron example (and he spent a lot of his early career at the bottom of the line-up then leading off), you're looking at .249 MLB average (I'd bet on Robert being in the 260's or 270's) and .338/.444/.782, 107 wRC+ and 50.6 fWAR. That's the floor, a 750-800 ops hitter with even bigger power than Cameron, a career strikeout percentage around 25% (we'd love to get that in 2021), 11% walk percentage is probably at least 2-3% points too high, but he might start getting his share of walks like Tatis simply because pitchers are afraid to face him when behind in the count or don't want to risk a leadoff home run. During his peak, Cameron was a 20-30 homer guy, with 25 being around the average. I'd bet that Robert, with health, is closer to 30-35 homers per season, unless they do something really dramatic to suppress the baseball....and, even then Robert has about as much raw power as anyone in baseball not named Aaron Judge or Eloy Jimenez. Eric Davis' 1987-1989 run in Cincy...maxing out at a 7.1 fWAR but just two other career years over 4 (4.7 and 4.3) would be a "worst-case scenario" IMO. Or Devon White in 1991-1993, averaging around a 6 fWAR for the Blue Jays...reminiscent of his defensive prowess and the similar ability to glide to the ball and kick it into another gear that almost nobody possessed. According to Advanced Stats, Robert's flat out sprint speed "was only" 20th in MLB last year, but he seems even faster if you watch him compared to the rest of the players on the diamond on a daily basis, and it's an "easy" grace that few other players have showcased. While he has a REALLY strong arm, it's probably his weakest area (along with hitting for average) of the five tools that he has, but TLR keeps calling him a "six tool player" so I'll go along with that...the sixth tool being that "it" factor or extra gear that he can seemingly summon at will (like the massive tape measure breaking homer he hit in Game 3 against the A's). -
That's a positive sign for the financial health of the KC Royals...those are the kinds of players the bottom 10-12 franchises don't blink about letting go when they get too expensive in their arbitration years. Not to mention this deal stretches into his early 30's, which makes it even "riskier" from the club perspective.
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Defensively or hitting-wise? I noticed when I woke up around 4-5 a.m. that he fouled out down the RF line to Avi...still has that predominant H or K arm bar? Not sure what type of arm bar it was...maybe getting confused with K-shaped economic recovery articles, lol. Hopefully they start spelling his name correctly, instead of "Berger." And 2018 Spring Training where he went down with the Achilles' seems like a LOT longer than three years ago, doesn't it?
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Should get NEGATIVE 2 points for those "easy pickings," lol.
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The Olympics, to me, are a big testing opportunity this summer. With 98-99% of the Chinese population not vaccinated (partly because nobody has had Covid in Wuhan for many many months, at least half a year), it's a conundrum because tourists will never voluntarily go through 10-14 day quarantines on both sides of a trip. So the question becomes if international travelers HAVE to have a vaccine certificate, from which providers (will the Chinese ones be accepted in the EU or US, for example?)...or will it be enough just to take "instant" exam and, at worst, have a 24 hour quarantine that first night until coming up with a "clear" test. Because we all know that if you have a test 2-4 days in advance (sometimes it's so hard to get an appointment the day before travel), they're also potentially missing X number of cases that later turn symptomatic. It's kind of frustrating here, because 1) many people don't trust the Chinese vaccines, both here and abroad, say, the Philippines....but 2) there are no other choices but the Chinese vaccines, and those have only been administered to government officials, international business travelers, embassy/party officials, active duty military, etc. No talk of doing any vaccinations for teachers...in no large part because it has been since April or May where there was a real concern about outbreaks, at least where I live (Beijing and Northeast China is a slightly different story over the last 4-6 months, there was certainly a lot of concern during Spring Festival/New Year's when hundreds of millions of people all travel over the span of 2-3 weeks.)
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Jimmy Cordero...the forgotten breakout candidate
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He’s never been able to consistently hit well playing everyday against left and right handed pitching. He has his hot stretches like all hitters, but relying on Engel to be a 775-825 ops hitter is not a recipe for success. And he will get some infield hits due to his possessing Top 5 sprint speed...putting the ball up into the air is not his game, it’s getting on base and getting in opponent’s head. Otherwise, if they believed in his everyday ability, no need for Eaton and that money invested in someone like Quintana instead. -
Jimmy Cordero...the forgotten breakout candidate
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He has a minor league option remaining. Likely they keep him starting every fifth day at Charlotte...they simply can’t afford to have 4/5 starters going 4+ innings each start, so Lopez at the very least can eat up those innings in blowout losses to save the key high leverage guys, and would next man up in the case of Cease/Rodon failures or injuries. -
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-cease/18525/stats?position=P You must be confusing Cease 2019 with the 2020 version. If he repeats 2019, there will be be massive bullpen issues if he again averages less than 5 IP per start. If you had Cease 2019 for fifth start, that’s more what would expect from the typical playoff-bound rotation.
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https://qconline.com/news/local/debate-sparks-over-glass-steagall-act/article_da61ae1e-056f-566a-b254-32f038075496.html Of course, Rep. Leach from our district in Iowa was acting in retrospect like he wasn’t at the center of all this, along with Phil Gramm of Texas. (Well, at least his niece, Leslie, who went to Occidental, was nice...Leach was always perceived as a center-right banking expert and had as much to do with financial rules and regulations as anyone in the 1980’s and 90’s.) I guess if blame had to be assigned going all the way back to Reagan/Regan/Stockman, it’s 55-60% GOP and the remainder on the Clinton administration, with Obama giving everyone a convenient free pass at the end of it all. On GME second move... “But, don’t expect it to happen once more. Wall Street will likely fight back against another onslaught of coordinated buying by Reddit investors. Whether that’s via trading restrictions, as we saw brokerages like Robinhood do at the height of the short-squeeze saga. Or, perhaps Wall Street could pressure Reddit itself to shutter the popular subreddit. How Wall Street fights back isn’t the point. It’s the fact it’ll likely curb any future short-squeeze sagas any which way it can. With it more a game of predicting the unpredictable, the ability to handicap the situation is limited. We’ll know in the coming days whether this second round has legs, or if it quickly sputters out.” https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/despite-reddit-rebound-stay-away-160643747.html
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Jimmy Cordero...the forgotten breakout candidate
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
If if if he can actually stay on the field for 145+ games... -
White Sox Jimmy Cordero: The White Sox bullpen is stacked with intriguing pitchers about to embark on their first full seasons. We're highlighting Cordero because his bloated ERA (6.08 in 26 innings) tells a misleading story about his 2020. His sinker-slider combination suppressed contact at an elite rate last season, permitting him to rank in the 96th percentile of exit velocity. That didn't prevent him from allowing 11 hits per nine frames, but we don't think that will carry into the new year. As an added bonus, Cordero has the best short-sleeve game in the majors since the days of Joel Peralta. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-breakout-candidates-one-player-from-all-30-teams-whos-ready-to-step-up-in-2021-season/
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Yes, where Dustin May, Gonsolin, Gavin Lux, etc., don’t even have starting roles without injuries (see Price, David).
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Mike makes Wright: our Sunday Starter announced
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He’s this year’s version of Drew Anderson with lesser stuff. Dennis Michael Wright Jr. is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Chicago White Sox organization. He has previously played in Major League Baseball for the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, and in the KBO League for the NC Dinos. Wright played college baseball for East Carolina University. Wikipedia -
https://www.mlb.com/news/best-baseball-cap-for-every-team?partnerId=zh-20210227-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=vCw1KXOrq7s4xKn0lqGTnyie0Z60wHy5%2FAsJLGMRKG5vqxbF2mfObP7wojzFirOu&bt_ts=1614429995422 This was about the closest I could find with a quick online search...the 1959 version is much more common, for obvious reasons. https://www.detroitgamegear.com/product=/chicago-white-sox-47-brand-cooperstown-vintage-navy-franchise-fitted-hat?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIisaQ5qmK7wIVXiCtBh0BSQiYEAQYASABEgJpxfD_BwE
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Well, it’s essentially like an adjustable rate mortgage for utilities such as gas, water and electric. When someone benefits by rates going lower, they are smart. When the rates go up, or they have a balloon payment they can’t make after buying a house, essentially enjoying a service they couldn’t ordinarily afford...who is responsible? If they bought the house with an ARM or interest-only loan but flipped it for profit in the meantime...will they not enjoy profit? We had a president bragging for years about taking advantage of the system, loopholes, paying no taxes for nearly a decade...why should it be surprising everyone now wants special treatment? Like forgiving student loans, for example. HOUSTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Texas's grid operator on Friday shut Griddy Energy LLC's access to the state's power network for unpaid bills and shifted its 10,000 customers to other utilities, as new signs of a financial crisis rose after a state-wide blackout. Griddy was the power marketer that sold consumers electricity at wholesale rates, which rose to $9,000 per megawatt hour as cold weather struck the state last week. Unable to cope with demand, utilities cut power to 4.3 million residents as temperatures fell below freezing. Grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) "effectively shut down Griddy," the electricity marketer said in a statement on its website. Requests for further comment were not returned. ERCOT separately said $2.1 billion of its service bills went unpaid from utility and other grid users on Friday, another sign of the devastation from high electricity rates during the cold snap. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-electric-firm-griddy-loses-005444136.html
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One positive with this new bill is that at least checks are only going out to those under $75,000 household income and families...if it went to those over $75,000 as well, you’d see 50-75% of that money going right back into the stock market, rather than paying off debts and being recirculated right back into the economy for goods and services, keeping those small businesses and hourly workers in their jobs. The goal on the flip side of the equation is consolidation/mergers, wiping out anything remotely resembling small mom and pop stores or local restaurants....just feeding into the continued massive corporatization of the country. Those corporations, meanwhile, figure out any possible way to cut down on both human resources and physical office space, driving up stock prices (more buybacks) and driving the bottom 2/3rds of Americans further away from the American dream. This next decade, it will be increasingly challenging for that bottom group to even afford a decent house, with interest rates/inflation rising.
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How would you define who’s most responsible? Barney Frank? Rubin and Clinton? Summers? Greenspan? Mortgage lenders who didn’t even verify incomes in the quest to beat the competition and generate as many new loans as possible? Investment banks mixing retail and investment banking? The rating agencies? You could go through that Inside Job documentary (Matt Damon narrated) and there would be so many guilty parties there would be nobody left but Elizabeth Warren, and she’s not entirely the saint the media created, either. I think that’s why nothing substantive was done. You would have to destroy our whole financial and regulatory system and basically start over from scratch
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That’s what happens when there was no attempt at national or Federal coordination for a full year, contracts were simply given to pharmacies and public health departments were left out of the loop...to the previous administration, just coming up with a vaccine itself was the victory that would theoretically allow for a second term. But there was no to no thought given collectively or collaboratively on how to distribute it effectively. It was more like a political prop or tool.
