caulfield12

Who buys Bauer jerseys and pays top dollar just to watch a guy who’s terribly inconsistent from year to year? I think I will side with Gerrit Cole on this one. If anything, Bauer is not the one who should be getting $40+ million a year, because 12 of his 13 starts last year were against below average offenses. Look at his career holistically, he’s not worth the hype. Segments of their fan base are uncomfortable they signed an internet bully with a history of allegations that he harassed women, mocked transgender people and spread conspiracy theories, but the Dodgers didn’t view any of that as a reason to pass on an opportunity to show the world how smart they are. Asked during Bauer’s introductory videoconference Thursday about the message this sent to fans who feel alienated by the team, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said unconvincingly, “We very much value them.” https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2021-02-12/trevor-bauer-reputation-harassment-women-dodgers-signing https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/cleveland-indians-pitcher-trevor-bauer-accused-of-online-harassment/95-3fcc500f-aefc-43bf-b71a-4a1421083129 That doesn’t even include the drone incident and offending a Hall of Fame manager to the point of being banished by the team. Bauer is not refreshing. He’s a jackass. He is the center of his own universe, period.

Let’s keep in mind Tatis and Machado got two of the biggest deals in baseball history, from the same agency. Good for them. It’s not putting a single dent in the pockets of ownership. Yet they keep crying poor and raising prices while providing a diminished product. They are the ones who are reckless and greedy, extracting more and more profit/revenues from fans and players alike. They, along with the commissioner, are the ones destroying the sport. It’s not just baseball, it’s quarterbacks and Lionel Messi’s and NBA All-Stars and Formula 1 drivers. Elite performers deserve to make that money, that’s the society we live in. Tatis actually understands, unlike Bauer, that it’s a game meant to be entertaining, period. With Trout disinterested in carrying the banner of doing anything but reporting to play, and no leadership from the owners or Players’ Union, someone has to. That same attitude is why so many Sox fans love Tim Anderson the most. They are the future of the sport, and the best way to get or keep those from T ball through age 35 interested.

They’re going to pay Luis Robert $40 million (combined) in 2026 and 27 when he’s 28 and 29, his last two peak years going by the traditional 27-29 as that peak range up until the steroid era. In my lifetime, though, Konerko and Frank Thomas were the only homegrown players they kept into their 30’s. I have watched a lifetime of some of my favorite players become increasingly more expensive, then leave. This is fine for the Rays or A’s, but Chicago deserves better. And, all things considered, stars win in the postseason. The 2005 White Sox are one of those rare exceptions. In the age of super teams, that’s becoming ever more difficult. Luis Robert has the best chance of all, but still might end up being closer to Mike Cameron, Eric Davis or Devon White with power.

Tatis, Jr., has played exactly 76% of one full big league season and put up a 6.5 fWAR. Extrapolated out, that would be an 8.4 for a full season, done earlier than Trout. Since you’re not going to be able to acquire Trout, who would be a better option in the game to invest that kind of money in? And what would be the impact on the Padres’ fanbase if he walked in four years?

Not exactly. Moncada, Robert and Jimenez are the same type of calculated risks. Nobody can guarantee Luis will be a 5-6 fWAR performer. If you count the original signing deal and the extension, there’s nevertheless at least a chance it goes wrong. A year ago, Moncada looked like a sure thing vs. Machado, right? Jimenez is also an injury risk and he’s never going to be able to put up massive fWAR numbers due to defense, base running, etc. The thing is the Padres can afford to do this because of their pitching depth, at the major league level, Clevinger in 2022 and in the minors. They’re staking claim to being one of the best 2-3 teams in baseball for another 5-6 years, and their best pitcher, Gore, will be dirt cheap his first three years. The White Sox have their risk in veterans Grandal, Abreu, Keuchel and Lynn (lesser extent). If they don’t make it to the playoffs or advance a round, they’re going to have a tough time coming up with enough money to entice Giolito. It would be around 50% bigger than the largest deal in team history, which just got inflated by Tatis’ deal and another $5-7 trillion in the US economy. Unless Kopech, Cease or someone like Kelley becomes that next ace, you’re going to have to buy one at top dollar on the open market. Not the White Sox game. It’s also pretty clear we don’t have the trade capital to pull it off, because they need to keep Kopech and Vaughn. Overall, if Robert, Kopech and Moncada become stars, the White Sox will be fine. Two of them is enough for the Central. Just one puts the whole contention window at risk. (Now you can obviously argue that Myers and Hosmer are risks too, but if they were really concerned they would have dealt Myers at peak relative value this offseason.) The Padres are investing in their future, the White Sox are waiting for the payoff before they will invest further. From a typical business standpoint, that approach is certainly preferable if you want to have the very best product in your industry. It’s definitely a better way to get the fans on your side than hiring Tony LaRussa.

And post Covid economic recovery, with the Mets, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, etc., bidding...and revenues stabilized, how much more does he get on the open market? A superstar turning just 25/26, like Harper and Machado two cycles ago, at the absolute peak rather than beginning descent at 29-31. Think of the Lionel Messi deal. Think of worldwide vs. local/regional impacts. He could very easily be the face of the sport because Trout eschews the limelight, Tatis embraces it.

It’s a calculated risk. Of course, the injuries are always the biggest factor, but still less so than for a pitcher. It’s going to be a long time until anyone beats Cole’s deal. Pitchers are even more unpredictable, and now there’s going to be a ball change and god knows what the impact will be from an injury-perspective. For the fans of SD, it means no backing down to the Dodgers, period...and that starting him on Opening Day, 2019, instead of fighting for that extra year of control was worth it for the general good will/partnership they created. As it stood, the Padres only had four more years of control remaining. It demonstrates commitment. They don’t plan to bail at the earliest convenience, like the Marlins did with Buehrle. It’s planting a flag in the ground and answering the Bauer deal with one of their own. For Tatis and his family, it might end up costing him $100-150 million down the road, plus endorsements that would be more likely on the East Coast in NY or Boston. That said, with digital media becoming increasingly prevalent, being on the West Coast isn’t a killer like in past years. The equivalent for the White Sox would be extensions for Giolito, Vaughn and Anderson (old deal torn up) announced today in succession.

https://theathletic.com/2391874/2021/02/16/robin-ventura-white-sox-oklahoma-state-baseball/?source=dailyemail Back on the field (and in class online at Oklahoma State), Robin Ventura reflects on White Sox tenure

Corey Seager is the guy I’m targeting and putting him at second or even RF, and the DH mix as well. Unfortunately, the only way we can afford him is if he gets injured again. Peak Seager is a $200-250 million player, but the injury history creates significant downside risk.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/predicting-next-offseasons-top-10-mlb-free-agents-shortstops-lead-list-noah-syndergaard-is-best-starter/ Conforto, Syndegaard (sincerely doubt this one) and J.Gray (he of the 6.69 ERA) look like top targets, but pretty bleak unless a lot of opt-outs occur or options are declined. Jose Ramirez could be available, but mo way he ends up with the White Sox. Since Thor is high volatility like Kopech, that route is closed if he has a huge year because he will become the top of the market. Not that many directions for the White Sox to add those final 2-3 “finishing pieces” without taking on salary. At this point, the competitive window is at the mercy of incoming revenues that won’t impact the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Braves (well, to an extent) and the Mets. That’s the competition, with the Blue Jays charging quickly from behind.

Yep, mostly play by play. Analyst positions are almost impossible for non players. So that really cuts down the odds even further. Not many can afford to spend 10-25 years in the minors and raise a family on relatively low salaries unless they can go offseason sales and marketing/promotions equally well. The times that produced those radio voices/storytellers whose game calls traversed the country on AM radio simply no longer exist (Cardinals had almost twenty states in their network at one point).

Yeah, it’s a changing of the guard, a reflection of consolidation and cost cutting excused by Covid-19, and the death of small town baseball forever in places like Clinton and Burlington. https://www.amazon.com/Class-Baseball-Everywhere-Lucas-Mann/dp/0307949753 Working in sports is such an unstable career, where changes in ownership or, conversely, being in the right place at the exact right time send you off in completely different trajectories. Making it to the big leagues as a broadcaster is about as easy as becoming a Senator or Representative. Or lasting an entire lifetime doing sports radio, for that matter. https://qconline.com/sports/professional/former-qc-baseball-announcers-see-careers-go-different-directions/article_3c2f40e0-9f9a-52ab-9209-d64a8c467009.html And, when you get to the top, it’s even harder to stay there. One of my dorm-mates at the University of Iowa made it all the way to the Astros, but broadcasting during a prolonged rebuild is never easy and now he’s doing University of Arkansas athletics broadcasting. Mario Impemba did QC River Bandits games three decades ago, then eventually worked for the Detroit Tigers for almost twenty years before losing it all due to a fight with his broadcasting partner.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/states-risk-repeating-last-summers-190000443.html Iowa/Reynolds at it again, sigh...

https://variety.com/feature/2021-oscars-best-picture-predictions-1234768047/ Top 20 picks for Best Picture. Have seen 13 so far. Nomadland is still the one that sticks out, along with The Trial of the Chicago 7 being so topical it’s gaining all the momentum that was once with Ma Rainney. Minari victimized by debate over whether its a foreign film or not.

Ryan Sweeney? Wilson Betemit? Sox fans have witnessed plenty of HoF springs.

Skole? Over the trade that shall not be named? That’s Top 5 hyperbole here, from an expert in it. It’s the third string back-up QB syndrome all over again.

https://www.mlb.com/news/these-teams-won-2021-mlb-offseason?partnerId=zh-20210213-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=8nawCQiordVRl5%2BL%2FVoXjstPXkJ2B4xDN01TC7hPecQd5ni7SvSJSst8g4locH5N&bt_ts=1613220197008 Discuss.

It’s going to be so uniquely White Sox if the fate of these COVID-19 era teams is not unlike 1994 team. That the window never is fully opened because of the loss of “unprecedented financial flexibility.” Of course, if they wanted to give Giolito a fair market value extension, they still could do so. It’s just that now they have a convenient excuse to hide behind. It’s kind of hard to imagine what happens to the franchise if they don’t at least get through one round of the playoffs. Every time the organization is presented an opportunity to make up some ground against the Cubs...

Not to mention the idea was Odorizzi for either 2-3 years, locked in, so you don't have to get into a bidding war for FA pitching whenever the CBA is resolved and revenues can be more accurately projected based on full attendance. Don't see a team like the White Sox giving $16~18 million for one season for some reason.

Frank Thomas says hello. Or Robin Ventura.

Or Mike Trout. It seemed completely improbable for a NJ kid that was hardly noticed to become a better player than Mickey Mantle... Another example would be Pujols going from Maple Woods CC in Kansas City (not noticed by the Royals but their hated in-state rivals.) Piazza, although he never totally escaped steroids accusations, and still might not have been drafted were it not for the connection with Lasorda. PS: Also wondering how Jose Ramirez went from a 625 ops hitter for half the season last year to the best player in the game the second half.

Where did he rank Brinson or Broxton? Luis Robert? Just trying to remember the evaluator who was all over the “holes” in Robert’s upside despite the obvious potential.

Yes, I’ve already argued that elsewhere. The counter is that the Rangers have one of the better scouting groups in the game, and that Lynn has already peaked. Odorizzi is three years younger, and you have the added advantage of taking him away from a rival...even though it doesn’t look like the Twins now can afford him as well. At the beginning of the offseason, he was projected around 3/$39-42. Essentially, you have him through 2023, and you keep Dunning. Of course, Lynn would be $5-6 million cheaper for 2021.

Signing Lynn to anything beyond 2 additional years with an option for 2024, or using him as leverage...just don’t think JR is going to take that kind of risk with a pitcher in his 30’s with Keuchel already on the books. After all, he’s turning 34 early in this season. An extension for him would be more surprising than Giolito. Even if he has a great season, how many huge long-term contract offers will he get? Could also just give him the one year QO. Then again, he’s a former Cardinal who dates back to TLR. Signing Odorizzi to three years and keeping Dunning would have been more logical, which indicates they were probably happier to give up talent than take on any more additional salary. Shocking, right?

4.4, 2.0, -0.5 over the last three years for AB. If you look at averages, he’s a 2, but look at the path of those numbers. Eaton 1.9, 2.4, -0.5 (but missed quite a few games for a counting stat) That would give you just a 1.3 as the average. Of course, 2020 was a shortened season. Not a huge difference in salary, $6.6 million (AB) closer to what the Sox should have paid if Rosario’s only at $8 million. But that would force Jimenez off the field and to DH, and Benintendi can only play LF. Which means you’re still blocking Vaughn unless you’re just writing off either Eaton (or Benintendi) already for the second half of the season. In which case you’re once again wasting money/resources. And you’re putting Jimenez back in the field after sitting all that time.