caulfield12

At best, you’re going to get 5 years (two extra years of control) because Reinsdorf doesn’t trust long-term deals for ANY pitchers. And they’re not going to be confident in any contention window extending beyond 2025.

They have enough offense. Colas could help there, too, but who’s to say the odds aren’t equal to Adolfo being a late bloomer? It always comes down to the starting pitching. Vera seems like the one to watch, of course, along with Kelley. PS: Or praying for a Renaldo Resurrection. Btw, impressive list of names!

That is just more and more unlikely to happen...it will be the John Danks excuse. If he has another Top 5-10 AL Cy Young season, the risk/reward numerator goes higher and higher. If he’d never had TJS in the past, then it might have been possible. Let’s just wait and see how many more major pitching injuries there are this year...potentially having three consecutive shortened seasons in a row, then finally ramping up to 180-200 innings again in 2023? Sure, that’s playing things out pessimistically, but they have to do risk mitigation and look at all the worst-case scenarios. What looks like three future aces in Cease, Kopech and Crochet can quickly become just 1 or even none. That said, the big gamble right now is two out of the four (including Kelley long-term) make it, so they don’t have to give Giolito $120-130 million.

Next year the excuse will be the CBA uncertainty/potential strike and financial losses incurred in 2020-21due to Covid...will they really go out and boost the payroll into the $145-165 million range heading into that tsunami of an offseason? Maybe the MLBPA will be licking its wounds from lost salaries over these two seasons, but you’re looking at two entrenched sides that won’t easily give in, especially with the owners gaining the upper hand the last 5-7 years.

That’s still going to be high or higher if you included 2006/07 all the way through 2012, since that’s when they were spending to defend a World Series title and were paying just the starting rotation alone roughly $50 million.

Still a bit early to think about extending Lynn...need to see him for at least a couple of months, as those long-term deals for players in their 30’s have the highest bust rates. You were talking about trading an Anderson/Giolito (well, maybe more in a general sense, just following the logic) for more pieces to extend the contention window beyond 2023-24. That’s a tricky game. Moncada and Jimenez certainly have their flaws/limitations...and even Luis Robert has a lot left to prove. Vaughn, as highly-regarded as he is by many, has to hit at the same clip as Jimenez or even higher to make up for speed/baserunning and defensive deficiencies. Madrigal’s weaknesses have been dissected to death. That said, it’s challenging to think of any combination of six hitters in MLB under age 27 that’s as highly-regarded. At any rate, it keeps circling back to either Anderson or Giolito. Those are the two at closest to peak value. If if weren’t for the Padres having Tatis, Jr., and Machado, a rotation that goes 7-8 deep, STILL one of the Top 5-7 farm systems in the game...it wouldn’t be nearly so annoying. They’re clearly a much smaller market team, but they operate like they’re unafraid of anyone. Imagine what Reinsdorf would do if we were in the same division as the Dodgers every year? We’d turn into the Cincinnati Reds. We can barely put the foot on the gas pedal when the Indians are basically surrendering and the Twins went for months without doing much.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/barstools-portnoy-invests-amc-stock-losing-700k-gamestop Will give Dave Portnoy credit for allowing himself to look dumb in public. Going by the stock charts, he’s probably down around roughly another $100,000 on AMC. That said, long term...many months or perhaps 2 years out, he might get back to even. But there’s also equivalent odds he could lose his entire investment with a bankruptcy restructuring. This feels like a gambler’s mentality to go right back into the market after getting crushed on GME, attempting to make up for the previous $700k loss.

Which leads to the conclusion that overall salary increases for MLB players are not even close to rising at the inflation rate over the last decade, despite a historic ten year stock market return when the billionaire class is getting exponentially richer and player share as a proportion of total team revenues (at least until 2020) has been decreasing by 0.xx% per year over that time. They’re rising at the top and bottom, but the “middle class” veteran players in their 30s are getting crushed. One of the few areas where salaries have risen during that time is for higher leverage relievers...a consequence of the Royals’ run, Andrew Miller in the postseason and the emergence of dominant multiple inning guys.

Going by the White Sox payroll of $128 million in 2011, a full decade ago...increasing by roughly the inflation rate of 3% per year, we would now be at approximately $172 million.

See Strasburg, Stephen. Assuming Giolito has the wear and tear piled up from pitching 200ish innings the next 2-3 seasons, and well into the postseason on a consistent basis, Jerry Reinsdorf will never assume that kind of risk with a pitcher who’s already had one TJS. Except for the Top 6-8 franchises in baseball, that’s too much risk. After Darvish, not sure I can even see themselves tying down that kind of money like they did with Lester to kickstart their contention window. Those were special circumstances with Epstein that are pretty rare.

Sure, but few teams have ever pulled it off. You’re asking to trade Giolito, Tim Anderson, Moncada (value down) or Luis Robert. At the moment, Vaughn would arguably be the fifth most valuable asset. You could never get fair value on Robert because of his last weeks, so cross him and Moncada off. That leaves Giolito and Anderson, your two team leaders, and Vaughn to deal. The only way it’s even conceivable is that Reinsdorf believes the 2022 season won’t happen...but that’s a real stretch.

“Colome, Brantley, and Wacha or Hendricks and Eaton? “ I was just commenting on the previous post’s last throwaway sentence. The answer, of course, is neither those two Rays’ starters or Colome will be closing for the Twins. 2003 (Kenny Rogers), 2010 (Thome vs. Kotsay, rotating DH), guess we were overdue to have Cruz and Colome be big difference makers between the Twins and White Sox. For the FIP lovers and those unconcerned about saves/SVO, we shall see if Hendriks is worth more than twice the money. Colome’s taking a decent-sized salary cut, he’s going to be motivated to prove all the doubters wrong. For my money, I would haven taken Yates, Colome and still had money left over to spend on LH power hitting.

Most recently, early to mid-May... https://theathletic.com/2198181/2020/11/15/white-sox-instructional-league-andrew-vaughn-jake-burger-garrett-crochet/ Don’t think Getz’s optimistic quotes on Yolbert Sanchez will bear any fruit, but let’s keep the puff pieces rolling. The crazy thing is how close that “wasted” money is to the Y.Cespedes and likely Colas deals. Oh, well.

Anyone want to bet on Archer and Wacha being better for the Rays than our results from the 4th and 5th spots this year?

It won’t matter based on his draft year stat line and anecdotal evidence from Schaumburg last year hardly proves admissible in a hearing. They can point at Madrigal’s speed of promotion, but he still had considerably more MiLB experience and the numbers to justify moving him (or Robert, for that matter) so quickly.

Or Cordero would still be the roster, Burdi, etc.

You already ? own 1,125,000 shares?

So there’s no club option on Cruz? I guess most were expecting $14-16 million for just a one year deal.

Way too early to forecast that the Padres’ method will mirror the Cubs, because for that to happen you’d need some combination on injuries to top players (Bryant) and non-performance (Darvish for first half of Cubs’ run, Heyward, Kimbrel, Chatwood, etc.) But they have the minor league depth and especially pitching depth to sustain things at least through the end of the Tatis contract (four more years)...which should be around the time Machado’s prime has passed. Of course, the White Sox risk losing Giolito after 2023 and Anderson the following year. If anything, the Cubs and Royals look more similar (except on far different payroll scales), in that they hit early peaks in their window but had difficulty sustaining them.

And that information/wariness is already priced into his market value. Perhaps for a super team in need of this year’s version of Hader, you roll the dice knowing he might end up under the knife, but how many of those 98-103 MPH pitchers have gone injury-free for more than 3-5 years anyway?

But they’ve diluted their shares by 75%. Sure, AMC will trade $15-22, but Cinemark and especially IMAX are better positioned.

Would love to see the average salary of those over 60 taking all these jobs out of financial desperation/inability to keep up with health care and prescription medicine costs. Of course, lowering MediCare eligibility to age 60 would mean tax increases somewhere....but there must be so many displaced workers in that 50-65 range who are struggling mightily.

GameStop at $134 and falling. Just wait until after Robinhood’s IPO and they invariably get hit by a short squeeze in revenge...how will they manage to officiate that one in a way that won’t turn into a PR disaster?

There should probably be a separate category for idiotic/drunken athlete-baiting social media attention seekers...see Atlanta Karen vs. LeBron last night. Seems whatever is in the Florida water is migrating north. Thankfully, that’s one thing that rarely happens in baseball, unless it’s Little League parents and coaches. https://sports.yahoo.com/maskless-heckler-ejected-after-yelling-at-le-bron-james-during-hawks-lakers-game-042135156.html Could also go into the Covid-19 thread, lol...

Wonder if MLB is going to have its own #metoo reckoning or if this all blows over...?