caulfield12

We didn’t stop flights until around January 23rd...when the city and eventually 60+ million in the province (similar to Italy) was locked down. One of the biggest problems is/was the proximity of wild animal wet market....just hundreds of meters from Hankou Train Station, which was putting all those carriers on trains across China for roughly 6-8 weeks. Out of a population of roughly 11 million, 5 million left the city during that time frame (largely workers from other regions of China returning for Chinese New Year’s holiday and university students, we have two million here.)

Right, but that’s the kind of sport where you can’t just have kids waiting for 2-3 months and playing again when it was already the end of the season...plus you have to think about exams, that the athletes are not getting paid, pre-set semester schedules, etc. The Masters seemed more realistic, but they care so much about the patron experience down there.

A former classmate who works for US Embassy posted this at FB Social Distancing versus “It’s just” “I’ll just pop in” “It’s just a quick run to Starbucks” “It’s just one beer with a few friends” “It’s just for the kids, they’re so bored” One of the daily battles for those of us stuck at home, and perhaps especially those with independent teenagers trying to navigate a new, temporary reality, is the need to resist the temptations of the “it’s just” rationalization that would justify some form of social gathering. “It’s just” is an understandable bit of mental gymnastics for a culture built on ideas of individual freedom. But it’s also a convenient way to wriggle out of a new and broad social responsibility for all of us. “It’s just” essentially says that social distancing is for other people, but not me. The hard thing right now is that “It’s just” facilitates otherwise avoidable instances of unintended virus transmission. Let’s have that uncomfortable talk with our teenagers about what social distancing means in real terms, set some appropriate expectations, and get used to saying a word my own parents (as old friends will happily attest) were quite fond of: “no”. Yes, I will take fire for this from some quarters. But experience is a harsh teacher, and I’d rather put my experience of 20+ years in and out of Asia and the Middle East, through the original bird flu, red tides, SARS and MERS, to some kind of service than just sit back and observe while the US still has a chance at outcomes more like Taiwan than Italy.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a White House staffer called to yell at him after he complained about the long lines at O'Hare airport. "They should have increased the Customs and Border Patrol numbers. And they should have increased the number of CDC personnel on the ground doing those checks. They did neither of those," the Democratic governor said. Probably not the best way to get the governors and Federal govn’t working together...or calling them ”snakes.” cnn.com Still in quarantine until at least Friday. That would mark 8 weeks, 2 days...58 days in total under lockdown. IF it’s actually lifted on Friday. Could also be 23rd/24th, next week...next Mon or Tuesday. Going by polling, if the split is 70% of Dems and 40% of Republicans (actually changing their behaviors due to the virus) and we can guess roughly 55% of independents are actually taking this seriously, that means roughly 140-150 million Americans are likely to get the rest of us sick, at some point.

22 min ago More than half of coronavirus cases in France under intensive care are below the age of 60 More than half of France's 300 coronavirus patients in intensive care are under the age of 60, according to the head of the country's national health agency. “We have counted this evening 300 serious cases in intensive care. We have serious cases also amid adults and let me remind you that more than 50% of people in intensive care are under 60," Jerome Salomon said at a news conference on Saturday. Salomon did not specify the age range of those under 60. www.cnn.com

Pretty low likelihood...you’d see the NBA and NHL cancelling their postseasons first. How likely is that?

That’s pretty clearly a reaction to CDC warning about gatherings of 50 or more through May 15. 2-3 weeks to ramp up beginning sometime in the first week of May or last week of April.

Whereas the flights out of here had 14 passengers sequestered and everyone in hazmat suits...including flight attendants. Fwiw, I also think some of the mortality rates vs. death rates are demonstrating such radical differences, the L&S strains as exhibited below. Of course, simple geographic proximity would argue that South Korea and SE Asia should have faced the worst strains...but there are so many connections between Wuhan and northern Italy (textiles, fashion, tourism, auto industry) it’s impossible to believe they didn’t get the worst of it, as well. You can now clearly see that simply by examining how many people under age 50 are getting sick all across Europe. https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/coronavirus-has-two-strains-l-type-more-aggressive-and-contagious-than-s-type-says-study/561144

CDC warning/recommending no gatherings of 50 or more for two months...only exceptions are schools and businesses. MLB will be lucky to get started the first or second week of June. I guess they could attempt to run closed spring training around the end of April and rolling into mid-May, but it’s going to be impossible to make up a full six weeks of missed games. 22% of the season. 35-40 games.

While we’re rightfully criticizing the UK, the crazy thing is they’ve already tested over 40,000 in UK...still way ahead of US testing rates as a percentage of population. Italy already is at 60% of the deaths we have had here in China from December through mid-March. Spain, UK and France set single-day records. About the only positive is Germany, so far. Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to protect themselves from coronavirus. When it happens, they will be asked to stay home for "a very long time", Health Secretary Matt Hancock said. The government is to release social distancing advice for elderly people on Monday - but they will not yet be asked to self-isolate for long periods. Fourteen more people have died from the virus, bringing deaths in the UK to 35. Mr Hancock told the BBC that manufacturers were being asked to help produce medical equipment, such as ventilators, to help with an expected surge in demand by the NHS. He also said hotels could be converted into makeshift hospitals, while the government has begun negotiating with private healthcare providers to obtain thousands of extra beds in private hospitals. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873 Corona simulator...how to flatten the curve https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR3rux4ateUQghTfQWMLdxY1bgesNfRkMa74WWhNpR2Zl9Xwt78Nh8CLHRg

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2 Herd immunity exists for flu. If large proportions of the population would get a flu vaccine that could protect non-immunised individuals. The problem with flu is that it is difficult to know which strains of flu (think of strains as variations on a theme: it is flu but just a little bit different) will be causing infections at any given point in time and so that is why the flu vaccine is not always 100% effective. The major problem with coronavirus is that this is a novel virus that has never spread before, which means that everyone is at risk for infection. Herd immunity can only be reached by widespread vaccination (but there is currently no vaccine, and it may take a long time before an effective vaccine becomes available) or by individuals falling ill and recovering thereby developing natural immunity against the virus. “Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection as we have no vaccine!). The major downside is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover. It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs but we are conservatively looking at 10,000s deaths, and possibly at 100,000s of deaths. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/ How, exactly, are they planning to precent NHS from getting completely overrun along the way...?

One of our former teachers living in the UK has it already now.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/trump-jerome-powell-fed-rate-cut/index.html They’ve used all their remaining rate-cutting capital up in just a couple of weeks. As soon as leadership personally autographs and tweets out a chart of infections/deaths going down to zero...we’ll know that they’re actually taking this whole thing more seriously on the American health than the economics side. Because for 10/13 days of lows, we certainly weren’t getting anything but silence. While some will obviously refinance a house or borrow money for business expenses, it also has a corresponding negative impact on seniors/fixed income recipients. Futures down now over 1,000 points...this might turn out like that first Tuesday they cut 50 bps and the market reacted to it as a sign of panic, like the 10 year bond yields flatlining and the CBOE volatility index numbers spiking up into to 40’s and 50’s. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/traders-await-futures-open-after-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html Circuit breaker hit again for the third or fourth time in six trading days... “The Fed blasted its monetary bazooka for sure,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “This better work because I don’t know what they have left and no amount of money raining from the sky will cure this virus. Only time and medicine will.” The Fed cut interest rates down to basically zero, their lowest level since 2015. The U.S. central bank also launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program. President Donald Trump said he was “very happy” with the announcement, adding: “I think that people in the markets should be very thrilled.”

It’s a bit premature to worry about cancelling an election...Japan still has until late July to decide on the Olympics. In reality, everything has changed in a heartbeat and will continue to do so. Just three short weeks ago, Trump would have beaten Sanders fairly handily. Now the pendulum is swinging in the other direction, but it’s on BOTH sides to come up with inspiring/realistic/game-changing proposals on health care. Like most elections, the economy at that time will be one of the deciding factors.

Italy 45.5 vs. 38.1 for median age, life expectancy Italy 83.4 vs. 78.9 (USA). But there are also 130 million Americans with underlying/undetected health issues and especially obesity...which leads to myriad health issues as we know. Severely Overweight=US is in the top ten at 36%, Italy near the bottom at under 20%.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-just-panicking-midwesterners-unmoved-090052636.html Laissez faire attitude will end up costing lives....

It was instructive that the president initially argued against testing because he was not coming from another country. This xenophobic mindset of foreign “invaders” is seemingly impossible to escape once it has taken hold. It just came to me that one huge advantage South Korea has had is geographic concentration...but, more specifically, that cult-like organization where they sit on floors within a few feet of each other like sardines in a can. It would be like 50% of the Amish in America having the virus...they don’t interact so frequently with the rest of the population, so the cases are more likely to be contained simply by social circles kept. Whereas European and American lifestyles are almost the exact opposite...seeking contact and connection through an immense variety of socializing activities, and the propensity to travel far and wide with unfettered freedoms. Cnn.com About 80% of all coronavirus cases in South Korea are associated with cluster transmissions, according to the country’s Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). The country has reported 8,162 cases and 75 deaths. Several clusters have been found around the country. The Shincheonji religious group, based in the southern city of Daegu, is the biggest cluster; 74% of all cases nationwide are from the city. Nationally, 60% of all cases are linked to the group, said the KCDC release. Officials identified another cluster at a call center in Seoul this week, which has led to 124 cases so far. Another cluster is within the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, where 29 people have tested positive.

President tests negative for coronavirus...that said, he should be rechecked again in 7-10 days.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/donald-trump-declaring-a-national-emergency-due-to-coronavirus-may-prevent-mlb-players-from-getting-paid-155823331.html Nick Madrigal gets a shout out on service time issue, could have been Kopech as well.

Embarrassing. Creates the idea that only “elites” have easy/quick access to exams. https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

75% blame the wet market, wild animal trade...the rest blame the US or another country. A few, the virology lab located here, but they logically point out that sabotaging their own country instead of dropping it into Des Moines or Chicago makes no sense. Scientists would be able to track the genetic sequencing and have 99%+ certainty if it was man made or originated from bats with a secondary carrier like pangolins, snakes or civet cats. There are a lot recently asking me why the US wasn’t better prepared or didn't seem to be taking it seriously. Former students marooned on college campuses seem to be getting cared for because they can’t easily return to Hubei, and might experience an even more difficult or uncertain path return to US again.

Working online teaching...going into Week 6. Two week quarantine. At best, I’d get partial pay. Since we are now 2-3 weeks from returning to school...and 40% of staff will face same quarantine coming back into China from UK, US, Thailand and Vietnam (maybe not for VTNM), it would be pretty foolhardy to leave now. The airport isn’t reopened, not even sure I could get a train out to Shanghai or Guangzhou even if I wanted to in order to use those airports.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/17-700-bottles-hand-sanitizer-155735689.html

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-news-live-uk-ban-083924455.html Seems like UK is deliberately trying to follow in the footsteps of Italy...counting on this mysterious “herd immunity” to develop is a huge gamble. People here have been getting sick a second time. In theory, the second or third wave could be even worse, but it doesn’t matter if you’ve already overwhelmed your public health system.

This will be blamed on Bolton, guaranteed. If we had Dr. Stiever (malaria specialist) and Tom Bossert back on the job, it would be like having two more Tony Fauci’s. People don’t realize that Dr. Fauci is 78, he can’t sustain this level of effort indefinitely without some more expert support. It’s definitely not coming from Redfield, Azar or Seema Verma.