caulfield12

The problem is many people are experiencing stomach problems like diarrhea and nausea/vomiting and those weren’t originally on the initial screening symptoms. Bathroom hygiene is now coming to the fore as one of the key factors in the spread. So all those shared/common bathrooms for Spring Breakers in Florida will be a great help!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html I am just relaying his idea....which seems crazy at first. Some are suggesting every American gets an open credit line/loan from the govnt to be paid back within five years. That’s even crazier. Or the Fed’s going to have to invest in corporate bonds to keep cash flowing...as long as it isn’t devoted to stock buybacks like Starbucks just did. It’s not a business crisis, it's a health crisis impacting every aspect of American life. If we go week to week and argue over bailing out which airline...hotel chain...cruise line...energy company or restaurant, we’ll have a $30 trillion deficit in no time. Instead of stretching this out over months or even years...do like we did here in China. Whether it’s 4 weeks or 6 or 8, it’s better for the government to protect workers over that time span than to let half the S&P 500 get wiped out because of a virus or balance sheet that’s not ideal. Food choices will be more limited than people are used to...but it’s not like we are being asked to storm the beaches of Normandy and face a 50% chance of not going home in one piece.

Obviously we still need food, health care, pharmacies, gas stations, military/National Guard. We can convert all the planes for airlines that will soon be bailed out for deliveries if necessary. The infrastructure has to be kept in place to ensure food delivery.

Does that start election day...I think it was November 3rd, 2016....or Inauguration on January 20th, 2017?

Shut it down...the entire country for 30 days. GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler about to shut down. Airports not far behind. Then hotels. Etc. The government can’t afford to bail out every individual company...but they can make the workers whole. No rent collection, no interest charged, loans deferred...everyone needs to take a break with their family and have the entire government take over. Do it incrementally and it’s months or years to get back to normal.

Sure, but it didn’t help to mention July or August, either. 2-3 months is the amount of time it SHOULD take if everyone does what they're supposed to do. Here in China, those decisions are/were taken away from people. But if authorities see young people going out to bars and clubs, flooding restaurants...celebrating St. Patrick’s or congregating en masse in Florida for Spring Break, then those governors will likewise take more and more freedoms away. You’ll have the National Guard enforcing quarantines...the more people who act like that guy in Kentucky who tested positive and refused to stay home.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3075732/coronavirus-hubeis-migrant-workers-living-fear-debts-mount It’s the same way for migrant workers here, many who have not been able to work for 8-10 weeks now. Even if we have the greatest health care system in the world for the top 20%, the bottom 80% is still quite vulnerable...which means that every single American is vulnerable. Whether we point the finger at Millennials, 18-24 year old Spring Breakers or illegal immigrants...it really doesn’t matter, because having to make a decision between losing one’s job and taking care of a family vs. preserving the health of those sixty and over will eventually lead to tragic results. Inequality of access to quality health care and sick leave.....or simply societal inequality (celebrities and athletes having no problems getting a test), something has to be done. Listening to C-Span, every thirty minutes you get a new story of people hoarding necessities at grocery stores while seniors are struggling just to get by. Why can’t they have specific senior hours at grocery stores to help make their lives easier? Heck, do it during flu season, too. You shouldn’t have to go through 2-3 doctors...nurses....administrative assistants, getting sent to 2-3 more possible places to get a test, with unreturned phone calls and runarounds. Someone has to be accountable for results. The system just beats people down and makes them give up...meaning they go out when they’re sick out of frustration because nobody can even tell them if they’re sick or not and need to stay in self-quarantine.

Marquee Network really in trouble before it could even get off the ground...great timing, with the Cubs trending downward, and corporate America looking months of uncertainty and stock prices being slashed. Wonder how many people will end up dumping cable and satellite packages if this gets bad as predicted? Otoh, the whole family really needs to have entertainment, a diversion from the reality creeping up. Wouldn’t want to be in that position. Maybe calmer heads prevail and both sides try to create a win-win deal, but don’t envy the position they find currently find themselves in.

Greg, the purpose of the article and projections by Dr. Ferguson was to scare the hell out of world leaders...before it’s too late to avoid going down such a path. Finally, the UK and Boris Johnson have figured it out. The irony is that ONLY the idea of the NFL season and UFC being wiped out FINALLY pushed Trump to start taking it more seriously. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/trump-awakens-to-the-covid-19-danger#intcid=recommendations_default-popular_43a0a69e-53f8-4291-b253-d3a5a8e80ca0_popular4-1

So those last three points at the bottom which Dr. Niall Ferguson made....on the differences between Italy and South Korea, combined with: 4) different strains of the virus in the two countries, Italian version more virulent 5) generally an older/aging population in Italy 6) affecting older men at almost 2X the rate as women and the culture of heavy smoking prevalent in both Italy/China 7) social distancing influenced by old young living apart in US, whereas in Asia or Italy you commonly see 2-3 generations living together...even going as far as the more intimate way people greet each other in Italy, Spain and France But a recent study by China’s Centre for Disease Control based on data in the country found that 14.8 per cent of people aged 80 and older who are infected die of the virus. The study found an 8 per cent death rate for people in their 70s and a 3.6 per cent death rate for those in their 60s. By comparison, estimates of the death rate in the overall population are around 1 per cent or lower. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075500/coronavirus-epidemic-warning-hong-kong-and-others-prepare-reality https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-leadership-challenge/index.html

One would like to think over that amount of time they could scale up the ventilator purchases...or simply do a lend/lease program akin to post World War Two, creating a world-wide “community bank” of resources and also private partners when public stockpiles are insufficient (like the testing kits fiasco.) Drugs are going to be more complicated, with so much production being sourced here in China. Every country can continue to isolate itself further...or we can all decide to collaborate. But nobody believed those Imperial College numbers from Niall Ferguson here in China, either. Ignore them at your own peril...but especially your parents and grandparents or even greatgrandparents. For what it’s worth, local infections the last three days in Wuhan are just 4, 1 and 1. Almost everything virus related now is coming from outside the country due to travel. This is Day 56 of full lockdown. Still haven’t gone outside once, which is quite painful with the really pleasant spring weather and abundant sunshine. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-first-coronavirus-error-was-complacency/ Yet, although the curve of confirmed U.S. cases looks about as steep as the curve for Italy, there appears to be a lag. Some have hypothesized that the U.S. is about 11 days behind Italy, so that San Francisco will be where Milan is today by March 26. But why is it behind? The obvious explanation is the disastrous slowness with which the U.S. has been able to make functioning COVID-19 tests available. Even without testing, however, we would expect to see many more people already falling ill and dying in American hospitals. It is not as if older Americans are on average healthier than their Italian contemporaries: rather the opposite, I should think. A better explanation, which I owe to two German economists, is that Italy’s social network may differ from that of the U.S. in terms of general gregariousness and physical proximity and, more importantly, in terms of interactions between the older and younger generations.

Treasury Secretary warns US could see 20% unemployment rate due to coronavirus, source says From CNN's Jeremy Diamond Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN. Mnuchin's comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario. In the same meeting, Mnuchin also said he is concerned the economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the source said. Depending on the fallout from all this, who gets saved or made whole and who ends up “back in their mom’s basement“ like a decade ago...there’s going to be a further shift in the country coming mostly from the group who got left behind during the Financial Crisis and political left/Millennials/Hispanics (it’s not clear yet which direction union members and non college educated whites will go) for wholesale societal changes. No matter what happens in November, it’s pretty clear the country is splitting into three main groups (with the Democratic party further dividing into two opposing camps)...based on those issues like economic inequality, climate change, breaking up massive corporate oligopolies, universal health care, UBI/worker displacement, college costs, etc. The establishment/moderates/centrists rightfully value stability....and they do comprise 40-50% of the people in the US today, but go left or right along depending on economic or social/moral issues and beliefs. Then there are those further on the left and right who just want to blow up the entire system for completely different reasons (immigration arguments, for example.) In times of crisis, the middle always wins. That said, it’s going to be fascinating to watch play out. Assuming that we get through this...with deficits nearing $30 trillion, we’re likely again in the near future to hear terms like austerity and balanced budgets with tax raises and/or accompanying Social Security Medicare/Medicaid cuts. From a historical perspective, 2024 is looking like it will be the reverse of Taft/Wilson/Roosevelt...with the left splitting off instead of the GOP...except it feels like the period of time from Wilson to FDR is going to be cut from 20 down to 8-12 years. 2032-2036 is when the government and country is FINALLY going to have to reckon with the financial policies and resulting income equality of the prior fifty years. Of course, I might be totally wrong and all these wholesale societal changes are going to happen much more quickly, with the pandemic being the critical inflection point, haha.

Yeah, much like 1917...that movie has to be seen in a theatre to be fully appreciated. There was one I watched a long time ago, U-571, the speakers were turned up so loud it seemed like the depth charges were going to blow patrons out of the theatre, as well. Watching on a phone or Ipad wouldn’t do it justice to feelings of fear/dread/trepidation one experienced, like you were a crew member of the German sub itself.

Yep, leg room, too. That’s the biggest to me...especially international flights.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html (CNN)A study by UK epidemiologists predicts that attempts to slow, or mitigate -- rather than actively halt, or suppress -- the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds and lead to about 250,000 deaths in the UK and more than a million in the United States during the course of the current pandemic. They also predicted very early in January 100-150,000 cases in China, which probably would have happened if not for the full lockdown.

Boeing is the first priority to save. Airlines already asking for a $54-58 billion bailout. They are going to have to let American Airlines fail. Southwest has bought back a ton of stock as well, but they’re one of the best bets to thrive again. That would basically leave Delta and United. First, some context. Please understand that times are tough for us, too. Lots of us are getting hammered. Also, two years ago, our government enacted a corporate tax cut that saved you and other US companies hundreds of billions of dollars. This tax cut benefited you and your shareholders, but it also ballooned our annual government deficit to more than $1 trillion a year. With the coronavirus now plunging our economy into recession, our tax revenue will tank, and our deficit will skyrocket even more, perhaps to $2 trillion or $3 trillion per year. So we're not as flush as we should have been. Second, over the past decade, you raked in tens of billions of dollars of profit and, instead of saving it, gave it to your shareholders. As you know well — and as you point out in your financial filings — your business is cyclical. So cyclical, in fact, that many of you have already gone bankrupt in the past. So you could have saved this cash for a rainy day. But you didn't. Instead, according to Bloomberg, you used a startling 96% of your cash flow to buy back your own stock. The buybacks of one of your members alone, American Airlines, totaled more than $15 billion in the past six years. ($15 billion! American, if you had just kept that cash, you might not need a bailout!) Third, although the coronavirus pandemic is bad luck, it was not unforeseeable. In fact, at least one of your members, American Airlines, explicitly foresaw it. In recent financial filings, American cited "outbreaks of diseases that affect travel behavior" as a major risk to its business. https://news.yahoo.com/okay-airlines-bailout-terms-131607340.html You guys can pick the winners and losers from the rest...I can only say Spirit and Frontier suck. Southwest Airlines – 20% (132,251,331 passengers) Delta Air Lines – 16% (106,062,211 passengers) American Airlines – 15% (99,857,863 passengers) United Airlines – 11% (71,722,425 passengers) SkyWest Airlines – 5% (31,257,149 passengers) JetBlue Airways – 4% (28,406,310 passengers) Alaska Airlines – 4% (26,273,073 passengers) Spirit Airlines – 3% (21,863,935 passengers) Frontier Airlines – 2% (15,527,410 passengers) Republic Airline (operates as American Eagle, Delta Connection, and United Express) – 2% (14,728,265 passengers)

Season now postponed indefinitely...

Thanks for sharing! https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/what-matters-march-16/index.html Millennials -- In particular, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus task force coordinator, appealed to millennials, telling the largest current generation of Americans that they need to shield older generations more susceptible to the virus. "We now need to appeal to every single American so that they can have their role in stopping this virus," she said, before singling out millennials as the "core group who can stop this virus" by avoiding public contact. A history of sacrifice -- Americans were called on to serve and work in the national interest when the country mobilized for the war effort in World War II. Americans turned against service in Vietnam when the cost became too great. More recently, after 9/11, they were asked to go out and buy things to prop up a flailing economy. They're not asked to do much anymore. But now, with a global pandemic threatening older Americans, fighting the enemy requires a collective isolation from generations that have social hard-wired into their DNA. "We've always heard about the Greatest Generation," Birx said. "We're protecting the Greatest Generation right now and the children of the Greatest Generation." (Yes, that would be the boomers, of which Birx is one.) https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html Informative article, really puts it all in proper perspective when comparing Italy and South Korea with well-researched supporting details. By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases. Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival. According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference. Which is good news for South Korea, where 62% of cases occur among women. Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. Smoking rates are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans. But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% (!) of women. ..... In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy's disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers. (We do not know the male-female breakdown of Italy's cases). These basic demographic distinctions explain the difference in death rates between these two hard-hit countries -- as well as helping to explain why Seattle, with its nursing home outbreak, accounts for such a large proportion of US coronavirus deaths. To understand exactly what is happening, we need daily case updates to include information about age and sex. The blundering lack of an effective testing program in the US is an unconscionable failure and has led (and will lead) to more transmission of COVID-19. But it is important to recognize that survival with the infection is a completely other matter, one that will require very different investments, training, and expertise.

The Hunt was disappointing....wait on that one, if the theatres ever open again. Joking, I hope. Buckle up for the next 2-4 months, it’s going to get bumpy for the entertainment industry as well, in terms of creating new content. On the plus side, we have a lot to look forward to...when things eventually get released in the summer/fall.

Goldman called for -41%. Peak of 2008-09 was -57%. In the end, endless you desperately need the cash now...it’s suicide to take it out. Where do you put it? Not in bonds...they could be even riskier, depending on winners and losers in the bailout. Gold? Real estate, perhaps. Lots of high dividend stocks will cut back there, especially energy and even banks. Back to the so-called Admiral stocks...the proven, diversified companies that would be trucking along without the virus but are getting stung along with the rest of the market by index funds. Not all individual stocks are created equal. Johnson & Johnson, for example. Wal-Mart. Don’t overthink it.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797 This is the best article I have read so far about where we could have been...with this particular pandemic in the US. Politico has always been fair and balanced about covering both sides from an especially harsh lens, the anti C-SPAN. Hopefully, the model in the future continues to be the presidential turnover from Bush to Clinton, but just have a feeling the next one won’t go easily, either. Probably much better with Biden, than Sanders...if that’s the outcome (yes, just four weeks ago it would have been 500,000 to one odds in Las Vegas.) We’ll never know had they taken this seriously...or had the pandemic response team not been disbanded/folded into NSC...but having Tom Bossert and Dr. Tim Ziemer and Lisa Monaco NOT around has hurt. It has also shown the limitations of what even private foundations like Gates can do in times like this. People look to government for reassurance and a trustworthy safety net. End of politics for today...continue on.

The Dems are so effective we got Merrick Garland blocked, lost the Senate/House to the Tea Party, lost most state legislatures, lost the ability to draw districts/gerrymandering, lost control of spending on elections (Citizens United), lost the Senate to a decade of obstructionism of Mitch McConnell, lost an impossible election to lose (2016), lost the unions, lost the battle over patriotism, lost the bond with religious groups over the fight for peace/social justice, lost the fight over gun control, messed up the Occupy movement, managed to get the socialism label attached to policies that are commonplace or taken for granted on health care and the environment in Europe, lost the health care battle from 1993 to 2009/10...and still can’t unify young people and Hispanics behind its presidential candidate. The list goes on and on. It’s no surprise than only 40% of Republicans believe the coronavirus is real. They are much more effective at messaging, staying unified around core issues...and scaring people, essentially. No compromising, killer mentality. We do have safe spaces, correct approaches to gender pronouns and the #metoomovement. I jest. But basically, we suck, lol.

That’s the bizarre thing about being a parent today. I’m 50 and have been teaching for about twenty years and see doing it for about five more years...online classes can certainly replace in person, and advising students on their university essays can be done from anywhere. But my son just turned five (no part or cake or gifts in middle of quarantine)...and I have no idea if STEM is the obvious path for him, particularly computer science and AI/data & quantitative analysis. Part of me believes a return to classics education...critical thinking, innovation, creativity...is key, which is essentially STEAM, arts/creativity combined with Science, Technology, Engineering and Math. Let’s say you are an architect. You can give the computer parameters for a design...it spits out 1000 possibilities, but the human brings value-added perspective to choose and enhance/improve upon the computer choices. Collaboration/cooperation, in other words. Don’t train for any career that can be wiped out in the next 10-15 years by AI/quantum computing. No easy answers. I’d suggest reading Homo Deus...if you have free time for reading coming up. Another I’ve been reading recently is the Three Body Problem trilogy.

Could likely be the two different strains....what are being defined as L and S, one more deadly (3-5%), one much more contagious, less deadly (0.5-1.5%?). My guess is Wuhan and China sent more directly to Italy...because of our connections through fashion/textiles, travel/tourism, car manufacturing, education, etc. Italy also has more multi generation families stuck all together in one house or apartment...like here in China. US has that major advantage, at least. Seems in the US we’re running at 1.6-2.0% mortality rate, but who really knows? Not the CDC or HHS. https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/3/5/21166249/coronavirus-outbreak-second-strain-l-s

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/job-losses-coronavirus/index.html More than half of US jobs at risk Nearly 80 million jobs in the US economy are at high or moderate risk today, according to analysis in the last week from Moody's Analytics. That's more than half of the 153 million jobs in the economy overall. That doesn't mean that all those jobs will be lost. But it's probable that as many as 10 million of those workers could see some impact to their paychecks -- either layoffs, furloughs, fewer hours or wage cuts, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Of those 80 million jobs, Moody's Analytics projects that 27 million are at high risk due to the virus, primarily in transportation and travel, leisure and hospitality, temporary help services and oil drilling and extraction. Maybe 20% of those workers, comprising about 5 million jobs, will be affected, Zandi said. The other 52 million jobs are judged to face "moderate risk." They are in areas such as retail, manufacturing, construction and education. Some 5 million of those workers are could be unemployed or underemployed. Andrew Yang was years ahead of his time...unfortunately, we can’t start a worker retraining program in-person yet, but the framework can be created with online classes and personalized counseling.