caulfield12

I just don’t see that as feasible without being able to track EVERYONE through mobile phones (no burners, everyone here has to be tied by law to their national ID #). There are only three service providers, all government controlled. There’s also not a common communication app like WeChat here. How many in the US even have a DL or passport? Most importantly, we don’t have the surge capacity...the ratio of hospital beds to population in the US is much larger than South Korea, despite much higher spending overall on tech/diagnostic equipment. We also don’t have the logistics and food delivery (scooters/mopeds) system that are ubiquitous in every Chinese city. The cost here is normally $0.75-$1.50 per delivery, with no tipping. We don’t have neighborhood associations to distribute fruits, vegetables, rice, noodles, basic staples to seniors and poor children who receive free or reduced cost breakfast/lunch.

The decisions about quarantining people (and which ones, and when to let them return home) were not nearly so seamless as he’s making it out. I totally disagreed with the concept of closing all pharmacies, tracking those going to get medicine (especially older people) and basically rounding them up and putting them into quarantine, paying reward money to report others who were sick. Many people got red flagged by mobile phone QR codes...erroneously. While everything was done in the name of caution and being overly careful, the Korean system is preferable, by far. Even now, without a Chinese national ID card, I won’t be able to get the green pass code for my phone...since we have no consulate left, we have no idea what will happen if we take our passports to ride the subway.

More than Senator Cotton?

Sorry this should be to Soxblanco’s MEDIUM article... The approach of aggregating the data like this isn’t particularly instructive. If you look at South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and HK...there’s an obvious flattening of the curve, and much more quickly than in China, where it was allowed to temporarily spin out of control for six weeks before draconian mitigation techniques were imposed. If you look at Italy, Germany, Spain and France...you’ll see the opposite. (The UK, so far, has been somewhat more protected due to it being isolated from the rest of Europe.) We are in the middle (between Europe and Asia) because of our isolated location and flight bans...but the severe lack of testing and stubbornness to change behaviors is just wiping out any advantages we had in terms of planning/preparation time.

It would be correct if we had actually tested and quarantined everyone who was sick in the very beginning...especially in Washington state, California and NYC. Now it’s too late, the horse is already out of the barn.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and If we would have simply followed the Korean plan...we wouldn’t be in the crisis situation we are now. And it would have cost a fraction to provide free tests for every American compared to the trillions of dollars of stock market and job losses. If you want to blame anyone, it’s four presidents over the span of 27 years and both parties in Congress that have failed to create the type of health care system that can handle a global pandemic. The buck stops here/there, as Harry Truman famously said. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tim-ziemer-global-health-security-leaves_n_5af37dfbe4b0859d11d02290 And just watch how much more quickly the KBO ramps back up...

I don’t, at least not like here, much more like Italy, where groceries and pharmacies were kept open. For two reasons, people living in individual houses vs. gated apartment communities, and the impossible logistics in a country as expansive as the US enforcing lockdown as well as delivering food to everyone, especially the most vulnerable groups. Just our existing military and National Guards would come up woefully short compared to the size of the military here. Here, they closed pharmacies deliberately to force people into hospitals or quarantine, prior to that, they were targeting people who were looking for medicine there, assuming they were hiding sickness. Also, they started giving financial rewards for community members to turn into authorities (or identify) them...not here in Wuhan, but smaller countryside cities where more people know each other. I don’t think it will get that bad. Finally, the ego of the executive branch won’t allow a “surrender” or failure like this in an election year...it’s not in his DNA. That might change when/if he or his daughter become ill and it finally becomes real for him.

They aren’t giving people who are sick, test positive and knowingly go to work (or just try to leave the area/enter a healthy zone) punishments ranging from 20-30 years in prison to the death penalty (deliberately spitting or coughing on someone while infected) for the common flu here in China. Service industries will be hard hit. One of my best friends is an orthodontist...my mom is almost 91 and living in an assisted living center like the Kirkland Life Care Center in the Seattle area. I don’t know how much the emergency $500 billion or proposed legislation between the House and Treasury Secretary will help you individually...but it’s being done so every normally successful business (airlines, Boeing, cruise lines, oil/energy companies, amusement park, theatres) doesn’t have to file for Chapter 11. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/americas/coronavirus-us-italy-south-korea-lessons-intl/index.html

We’re now at the 52nd day of lockdown in China. Assuming the US situation will be somewhere between Italy and China, 60-75 days from now would be my guess or estimate. That means ramping up in late May/early June and resuming season around June 10-15th with expanded rosters.

But that’s nothing compared to the flu!!! I strongly believe the only way some people in this country will ever take it seriously is when the President OR someone close to them (family/friends/loved ones) gets sick and can’t get help because of the myriad deficiencies in our current health care system. David Gergen was just talking about a case in Massachusetts where the ONLY way to get tested for coronavirus is AFTER being admitted to an ICU. How does that make any sense? I guess playing videos 24 hours per day from inside overwhelmed Italian hospitals that are doing WWII battlefield triage or the crematoriums here that were putting enough smoke from burning bodies into the atmosphere over Hubei that it was actually registering on satellite imagery might do the trick? In addition, coming into contact with Matt Gaetz, the press secretary for the Brazilian president, the Miami mayor (42 years old), all of them testing positive...then still not taking the test and continuing to shake hand after hand in the Rose Garden, not to mention sharing the microphone, it’s basically just another version of what Rudy Gobert did. This is 50% of the reason Italy is facing a catastrophic crisis now...not taking things seriously until it was too late. It’s not like we can’t see examples from other countries right in front of our eyes...all we have to do is track along with Italy, Spain, Germany and France and know we’re experiencing the same outbreaks whether there’s adequate testing or not. Finally, there’s still a patient in Omaha from the Diamond Princess who’s testing positive for the virus 28 days later!!! That’s arguably the best treatment center for infectious diseases in the entire country. And he’s not the only one, either.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/ncaa-tournaments-championships-college-athletes-seniors-eligibility-year-petition-092848893.html Should NCAA seniors get another year of eligibility?

That’s undoubtedly one factor. During the third phase, lung damage continues to build—which can result in respiratory failure. Even if death doesn’t occur, some patients survive with permanent lung damage. According to the WHO, SARS punched holes in the lungs, giving them “a honeycomb-like appearance”—and these lesions are present in those afflicted by novel coronavirus, too. Some people who recovered from severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) which swept the world in 2002 to 2003 had long-term respiratory problems as their lungs were permanently damaged. Covid-19 is similar to Sars in some respects, although is much less lethal, so those who have recovered from more serious symptoms may also suffer some long-term effects. From Telegraph/UK

Masters gone...wow. Boston Marathon pushed back to Sept. Fred Ridley, chairman of Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia, has announced that the 2020 Masters tournament has been postponed. Ridley said in a statement: "Ultimately, the health and well-being of everyone associated with these events and the citizens of the Augusta community led us to this decision. We hope this postponement puts us in the best position to safely host the Masters Tournament and our amateur events at some later date."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-fully-recover-coronavirus-left-103917303.html another reason this is quite different from the flu... People who recover from the coronavirus can still be left with substantially reduced lung functions, Hong Kong Hospital Authority have found after observing the first wave of discharged patients. The doctors found a drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in two or three out of those 12 patients. "They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," said Dr Owen Tsang Tak-yin, an infectious-diseases expert at the authority, according to the South China Morning Post. While it's too early to establish long-term effects of the illness, scans of nine patients in the group suggested that recovered patients had sustained organ damage, the Post reported.

That would result in a slew of lawsuits...everyone could later claim they got sick from attending a game. Not to mention players, coaches, umpires, etc. Worse yet, you would have temperature checks or testing stations before entering? Regardless, the governments of each state will have final decision-making authority...doesn’t really matter what owners or fans or even players would like to see happen (granted, that could change with a force majeure injuction...with owners withholding salaries.) Doubt they’d go down that road with CBA looming and the likelihood of playing at least 4 - 4 1/2 months of the season. Of course, service time and contract incentives would have to be readjusted or pro-rated.) Remember Yonder Alonso’s at-bats incentive we all worried about a year ago? Seems like a decade ago with everything that’s going down.

If those are the parameters for testing, why do they keep arguing 70% of the US cases are originating in Europe? Here’s one theory on origin of Italian problem

Seems like we will be carving out something more like Hawk’s infamous 54 game, 1/3rd of the way in “gives you a solid sense of the horses you’ve got“ adage. At the very least, the last week of March and April, so roughly 30-35 missed.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-can-travel-much-farther-than-previously-thought-study-finds/ Not so fast... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay Original article, with bus diagram.

And that’s going by a roughly 1% mortality rate, not 3-4% like here in China, or 5-6% like we’re seeing in Italy with a much older population. Have a feeling that’s another reason Japan isn’t testing or doesn’t want to publish...one of the oldest populations in the world and trying to preserve viability of the Olympics. Fwiw, feel sorry for Illinois basketball fans...you have to wait this long for a tourney appearance, and then, poof! It’s gone.

This is yet another reason why the best in-house analytics team and having as well as an extensive amateur scouting department is critical...when you're going to miss 2-3 months of high school/collegiate action. No last looks or CWS.

I wouldn’t touch UPS now, or Fed Ex/DHL... Zoom would be good, videoconferencing will be key in the next months. NetEase/Activision Blizzard...gaming companies with online platforms. Alibaba and Ten Cent are well positioned to quickly recover here in China. Online education platforms. INO, with more research into it. Disney, due to the strength of Disney+ and an eventual return to profitability with one of the best brands in the business. Coke or Pepsi. Be careful with the financial industry, those higher dividends might be cut. Verizon. Any of the Vanguard Funds, 500 Index, vivax, twsax, etc.

Well, doing the ONE thing that will quickly remove public confidence seems to be ill-advised...which is NOT testing. The ability to mitigate the effect comes directly from direct knowledge of where the clusters are most heavily concentrated. South Korea, Singapore and HK have done the opposite. And are coming out on the other side now. It was just as easy to track here as it rose exponentially, as when the curve finally started to flatten. And they are now starting to do drive up or immediate test results in NYC, Colorado and University of Washington...no thanks to the CDC and massive cutbacks in local public health departments.

That would be fine, but you still have the two main Dem candidates and President Trump as individuals in their 70’s (72/77/78.) One would hope that more leaders would exist in that 45-55 year “prime” for presidents, but it’s just not happening for myriad reasons. As someone right at the midpoint, it’s quite an embarrassment for Generation X. (Technically, Obama was at the end of the Baby Boom generation by a couple of years.)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/politics/katie-porter-cdc-coronavirus-testing-white-board/index.html Kudos to someone for finally getting the CDC to agree to fund/subsidize all coronavirus testing...and not just accepting the tired ‘ol we’ll “get back to you later” excuse. Have to hold their feet to the fire before that gets walked back again as well. At some point, doing the right thing for the American people has to come before fighting over who receives credit or recognition.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sports-is-usually-an-escape-but-now-we-must-settle-into-a-life-without-it-220230774.html