caulfield12

Reports of Italian hospitals being overrun just like here in the first month...patients in hallways, chaos. One can only guess how bad Iran is, we know there are stacks of corpses piling up because of the burial rites that are specific to Islam. If you watch the reporting in Italy, most people there are still on the streets, public buses running, etc. America also doesn’t have the ubiquitous mobile/e-payments apps system like S.Korea, Singapore and HK to force everyone to use QR Health Pass Codes for mass movement...so you have massive lines for manual temperature checks. Instead, you get the honor system for now, which has already been exploited, like the Missouri case where a family member of someone who returned from Italy and tested positive, the father of patient went to Father/Daughter dance and potentially exposed the entire school.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay The actual rates for the entire world are 3.5-5.9% (deaths/recovered plus deaths for the higher range, lower ranges is deaths/total cases.) Even if you go with 3%, that still 30x more dangerous the flu. The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists. The researchers also found that it can last for days on surfaces where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if an unsuspecting person touches it and then rubs their face and hands.

The common flu typically runs at a mortality rate of 1/10th of 1%. The coronavirus has been running at 3-4% consistently here in Wuhan. If we were as effective as South Korea and Singapore, it MIGHT be closer to 1%. But we can’t come close to getting a handle on it without testing and isolating clusters and Patient Zeros in each outbreak area. The numbers in the US are going to be similar to Italy...because of the pressure to work even when ill and the lack of people willing to risk not being charged $1400 USD per test, not to mention attendant hospitalization, which won’t be covered under many health care policies. Keep in mind, they take two swabs, so two tests and that’s over the course of 2-3 weeks if someone is hospitalized, so that’s a minimum of 5-6 tests over the course of treatment, plus meds. You can argue the denominator (deaths/total verified infections) should be lower due to limited testing, but then 12-14 already died at Kirkland before they could even be tested, so you quickly go from 22 to 34-36 deaths in a simple ststistical adjustment. You had 3 staffers trying to save 90 elderly because everyone working there was suck or afraid to get sick and expose their family. 1) There is no vaccine and won’t be for 12-18 months 2) The average person gives it to 2.6 others 3) Asymptomatic transmission...and potential to get sick again or infect others even with negative or inconclusive tests 4) Transmission can occur over a 14-23 day period 5) Spread was 4X the rate of SARs in 2002-2003

Nope. But at least I would have gotten decent food in the hospital. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/coronavirus-washington-nursing-home-life-care-center-kirkland-cnntv/index.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coronavirus-proves-enemy-cant-121123555.html

Emma 3.5 (Taylor-Joy one of the most talented in upcoming generation of actresses) The Way Back 3.25 (great work by Affleck in familiar personal territory, sports story aspect the traditional cliche) Onward 3.0 (tries just a bit too hard for that Field of Dreams father and son bonding vibe)

Hit the breakers on futures trading at a 5% dive, oil prices cratering with supply war/glut between OPEC, Russia and US. Markets set to open about 17% below DJIA highs of the last year. -20% is textbook definition for bear correction.

The news about trying to suppress the CDC advice about elderly and those with preexisting conditions NOT taking commercial flights is disheartening. And while it’s pretty unheard of for teenagers and twenty-somethings to die, there are/were plenty of deaths recorded here in their thirties or forties. Dr. Li Wenliang, the whistleblowing doctor from our neighborhood, was only 33-34. If I came back to the US, even with traveller’s insurance...I would quickly be at risk of a medical bankruptcy if I didn’t have enough savings. Meanwhile, my soon to be 91 year old mother (w/ Alzheimer’s/dementia) is at an assisted living center in Iowa quite similar to the one in Kirkland. If anything happened to her, I wouldn’t even be able to come home...because I would be quarantined for two additional weeks, even though I have already been asymptomatic for almost seven weeks, without having gone outside once yet. As noted, the biggest threat is not to any one individual...but quickly passing it on to 2-3 others, and there have been cases where 10-15 critical medical personnel got sick from just a single patient.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-airport-screeners-health-workers-045605071.html

President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials attended the conference, though the ACU says the attendee did not come into contact with the president or vice president, nor did they attend events in the main hall. When asked by reporters if he was worried about being exposed to coronavirus after he attended CPAC, Trump said, "I'm not concerned at all." Trump, who was speaking alongside Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of their dinner at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, also noted that the administration would not cancel any political rallies as the virus spreads. "We'll have tremendous rallies. We're doing very well. We've done a fantastic job, with respect to that subject, on the virus," Trump said. www.cnn.com Well, I guess we’re now in a situation where potentially 20+ died in this hotel/quarantine center collapse overnight here in China, so the focus will temporarily shift back to China and shoddy safety/construction standards. Of course, there will probably be a coverup if that’s the case, just like a couple of high profile incidents/accidents with the high speed train network.

https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/Kent-to-file-restraining-order-against-King-15112086.php https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166

If you don’t know how many are infected, and who, how the heck are they going to control the spread? As the city of Wuhan looks to possibly reopen in April, there’s likely to be a “passcode” system through mobile phone apps to identify all those who are symptom free for at least two weeks before re/entering the city. South Korea and China both have numerous apps that can track in real time the cases around you, proximity, everyone traveling in and out by train/bus/plane that has a fever, etc. Here, it’s almost impossible now to have what amounts to a burner phone, as everyone has their cell number connected to their national ID...which allows to government to exert more control but that tracking ability also comes in handy at a time like this. Of course, as with any tech, there’s always going to be false positives or people who aren’t cleared due to an algorithm that should be more precise...but at least there’s an appeals process in place. Strange that my co-workers who left China to places like Thailand, US, UK and Vietnam are likely to be caught up in another two week quarantine situation now coming back in. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074087/never-mind-china-look-us-next-big-coronavirus

https://deadline.com/2020/03/sxsw-no-insurance-for-disease-outbreaks-1202876689/

That’s exactly what happened with the construction of two new hospitals here in +/- 10 days. To sequester those most serious cases as quickly as possible. The obvious problem is that the “medium/moderate” and worst case scenarios leave our medical facilities woefully short in terms of equipment, beds and access to test kits. And the average person here with the virus went through something like 4-6 tests on average.

The big difference is roughly five million out of an eleven million population left Wuhan (for Chinese New Year) from the end of December through the morning of January 23rd on planes, trains (Hankou Railway Station is literally 200 meters from the Huashan Animal market epicenter) and buses. That was a huge factor. They also held a public banquet on the 18th of January with over 40,000 attendees and 12,000+ shared dishes...trying to set a world record locally when Beijing already was well aware of the outbreak but didn’t want to create a public panic before the holidays. Now it just came out that 19 crew members and two passengers out of the 46 they tested have the virus. Only 3700 on board...that all have to be tested before they can disembark. The problem is that 1/4th to 1/3rd of those people who pass the initial test...if this follows the trend...will end up developing and/or passing along the virus to others. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/chaos-at-hospitals-due-to-shortage-of-coronavirus-tests This pretty much encapsulates the width and breadth of the problem, and frustrations on the part of patients, doctors and nurses alike.

There was a lot of pushback on both sides of that SXSW argument. Until they have enough test kits distributed, we won’t know the full effect...and, even then, many people will be asymptomatic carriers/spreaders but not tested or reflected in the numbers. What about all the people who are sick but underinsured and afraid of hospitalization costs that definitely aren’t going to be covered? One of the nursing home deaths in Kirkland isn’t reflected because she hadn’t been tested and the daughter wanted to have it done posthumously. We had/have many deaths here in China that weren’t reflected in official stats but go down as pneumonia or flu instead. As of last night, nobody inside that center...staff or residents, had been tested. You’ve also got another yet cruise ship issue. Right now, the death rate seems abnormally high compared to even Wuhan (3-4%) because not enough testing has been done yet....so those denominator numbers are lower in the formula. But, as mentioned above, they’re already missing some of the deaths in the very beginning stages as well. Just in that two medical screeners at LAX have come down with the virus, which is also very scary in terms of community spread ramifications. Finally, there’s lots of anecdotal evidence here that people can get sick twice...many of the released/recovered individuals still are unable to go home, or are even bring refused by their families who don’t believe or trust the doctors that their previously ill grandparents can return without getting children and grandchildren sick as a result.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/06/anthony-fauci-millions-of-tests-coronavirus-town-hall-sot-vpx.cnn Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says there were missteps in regards to the CDC's initials tests for coronavirus and that he believes "millions and millions of tests" will be needed. Source: CNN https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-drug-industry-prices-122412

Someone is $5 million off...

Over the past year, general manager Rick Hahn has pushed back on the idea that the White Sox should consider all baseball decisions with the view that at the end of the 2023 season, Yoán Moncada would potentially walk out the door and drag their contention window shut on his way out. On Thursday, the Sox and Moncada eliminated that possibility entirely by agreeing to a five-year contract extension with a club option for the 2025 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is for $70 million and the club option could bring the total to $90 million. The Sox now potentially have contractual control of Moncada through the next six seasons, at the end of which he would be 30 years old. Who knows how high the oceans will be by then. https://theathletic.com/1657284/2020/03/05/white-sox-extend-yoan-moncada-lock-up-yet-another-member-of-the-core/ This was the original story, attributed to Ken Rosenthal, that is/was off by just $5 million on the option year.

The Chicago White Sox have agreed to a five-year extension with third baseman Yoan Moncada worth $70 million, a source confirmed to ESPN on Thursday. The contract includes a sixth-year club option worth $25 million and includes a $5 million buyout. It also buys out two years of Moncada's free agency. So 6/$95 or 5/$75 (including buyout). Story credits The Athletic with having the story first. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28845150/sources-white-sox-yoan-moncada-reach-5-year-70m-extension

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-man-self-quarantined-returning-173042979.html

Here’s three people who are very knowledgeable on this, and each represent different positions/viewpoints. Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Laurie Garrett. Listening to politicians on either side of this doesn’t do much good. What do want me to say? I haven’t left my apartment since the 23rd of January. Can you even imagine that? Can any American? And we’re still at least 2-3 weeks out before they will contemplate essential workers returning. Even Hong Kong, with more or less 100 cases, has pushed back classes until April 19th. Can you imagine your kid not actually going to school once from January 8th or 9th until April or May? Working at home/online that entire time while trying to manage a five year old who’s bored out of his mind...looking outside and seeing spring weather but trapped or imprisoned? No Americans are so willing to surrender their freedom/s. If I went out without a mask on, I would probably last for 2-3 minutes before authorities showed up and forced me into a quarantine center with hundreds of other strangers...where I would have one doctor, two nurses, mo medicine, no working electricity and one shared/common bathroom for 800-1200 people. That’s the harsh reality...and the testing there is so far behind or non-existent (South Korea can manage to test hundreds of thousands and even has improvised with “drive up” centers like a McDonald’s), there will likely be another Wuhan in Seattle or California or New York, simply because most people won’t react until it’s too late since there is so much conflicting information out there.

The situation has been handled extremely well here...after 4-6 weeks of government coverups, lol. The problem is the US doesn’t have a population that will easily accept losing their freedoms (people here invariably live in gated apartment communities with CCTV surveillance ubiquitous), the culture of working or not going to the doctor unless you’re basically on the precipice of dying prevails...and the country is so difficult to unite behind a common cause when it has been so terribly divided, which goes all the way back to 2006. Those three factors make the ultimate outcome such a great unknown. The government here in the very beginning decided to make treatment free (but only if you test positively for the virus.) On the US side, it often seems the focus is just as much on potential profits for drug vaccine and private test kit companies as general public health...whereas the Chinese idea is always focusing on courage, sacrifice and patriotism. Basically, both systems have terrible flaws in dealing with a situation like this. My wife saw a video that’s circulating online of some dude basically demanding an apology or reparations from China...I tried to tell her that having these wild animal markets that sell endangered species for questionable benefits in Chinese Traditional Medicine and just as “culinary delicacies” would never happen in America. In the end, undoubtedly, some Americans will believe it was manufactured by the government here and accidentally or even intentionally released. In the end, we’re a truly globalized tribe...her retort was “what about H1N1?” as she blamed that on the US and not Mexico. Everyone sees what they want to see. Confirmation bias.

Source: cnn.com Delays in testing: However, the government has also hit snags. There are widespread concerns about the accessibility of testing kits, while a botched roll-out of US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) testing, and strict criteria on who could be examined, caused a delay in testing. The US has only been able to perform about 3,600 tests so far -- especially striking when compared to countries like South Korea and in Europe, where thousands of tests are being run daily. The FDA commissioner initially said the US should be able to perform about 1 million tests by the end of this week -- but clarified later that there was a difference "between the ability to get the test kits out to the laboratories with the ability of the labs to actually do the tests." Confusion between federal and state levels: There is also confusion around other federal policies, like quarantines and travel restrictions; the Trump administration announced new rules in early February, but offered few details, leaving local officials scrambling to figure it out. San Antonio, Texas has even filed a lawsuit against the federal government over a disagreement in quarantine protocol. Among citizens, anxiety over the virus appears to be rising. Face masks and hand sanitizer have sold out in many places; one California woman told CNN she visited 15 stores over two days, only to find a single box of masks available.

Weren’t we associated with a Y.Cespedes trade or signing in there as well...? Let’s look at the Rangers, for example. They made some of the best FA pitching decisions of any team on the market, and still have come up way short because you can’t build an entire roster that way when younger prospects like Odor, Profar and Mazara are failing and veterans are close to retirement age. Many have criticized the Padres for some of their signings like Hosmer, Myers and Machado...at a time when they had/have one of the top farm systems in the game. At any rate, this is an argument that always comes back to teams like TB, Minnesota, Oakland, Milwaukee and Cleveland...who almost never make those $100+ million “over the top moves” because of risk mitigation.

By the way, does anyone know the commercial cost of those coronavirus test kits if you don’t have health insurance? As far as Greg’s question, we are able to order SOME basic staple foods online and then they get delivered to our apartment gates within a matter of 1-3 days. I’d just say to make sure to have all the meds you need, at least two weeks’ food and dietary needs, bottled water...toilet paper and hand sanitizers and N-95 masks are probably the three items where there are runs on them and shortages/price increases.