caulfield12

Except the White Sox have had about a 25-30% success rate in free agency with these Tier B/C free agents like EE, Alonso, LaRoche, Cabrera, etc. The only way this philosophy works is if you’re at closer to 50-60% in free agency, or have great coaching as well as talent evaluation on a consistent basis. Teams like the Rays, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Indians and A’s just a few that come to mind. What doesn’t work well is being stuck in the middle. Which is where the Mariners have been since their near great Ichiro-led teams of the early 2000’s.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/were-cocky-amc-investors-reflect-181841782.html

There has always been this “paying one’s dues” in baseball for young players. Basically, you’re a first rounder with a huge signing bonus or you’re going to spend many years proving doubters wrong. Now, you are seeing more players in Rounds 2-10 getting money like Kelley, but it has always been a front-loaded game. We can compare with the NFL and NBA, but first, but top picks in those sports are expected to make instant impacts...whereas the majority of high school picks take 4-5 years to even reach the majors, three if they’re extremely talented. It’s hard to imagine that changing because the interests of MiLB ownership groups and MLB talent development has never been aligned in a way that there’s ever been a foremost concern about the product minor league teams have to market/sell.

Won’t that put small market teams at even more of a disadvantage and also disincentivize, at least somewhat, the construction of a Top 10 farm system?

https://tylerpaper.com/ap/sports/patrick-reusse-modern-baseball-devoid-of-any-of-the-games-past-charm/article_bfce4367-69cb-5aa3-b717-1deb4a6af1fb.html Thus, an e-mail, to Anthony C. Clark. Dear Tony: It's good when owners have a chance to rake in a pile of millions. The hope for that to occur is the reason a talented, wacky right-handed starter can fetch $85 million in his first two seasons of a brand-new contract. And, there's nothing you can do in a salary cap-free environment to make the Eastern-educated, analytics-believing front offices of today's baseball to sign a flawed 30 years-plus position player for more than one year at $8 million, even if you as an ex-player and the agents all remember when they could talk teams into big contracts for 33-year-olds who weren't stars. It's true that analytic zealots — bringing as they do quick hooks for effective starters, endless relievers, hitters striking out 45% of the time and still in the lineup, only home runs and no rallies — have made 75% of MLB games sparse in action and suffocating in time. And guess what? Culpable as they are in baseball's dwindling watchability, you're still not going to get the brainiacs to give more than one year and $8 million to Eddie Rosario. Yes, Tony, the game is gasping, and all you can do by fighting a plan to allow owners to make substantially more honeybuns of hundreds to help pay Trevor Bauer's ransom is to hasten its ruination. Yours truly … Despondent baseball lifer.

Let’s not forget that only one of his 13 starts last year was against a team with an above-average offense. The first winner is Bauer, who turned brash self-promotion and two strong seasons into the two highest annual salaries in MLB history. This deal is the validation that baseball’s Mark Zuckerberg has craved all along. It’s a giant middle finger in the faces of all those who questioned his methods, the perfect mic drop for all those who dared to doubt him. The second is the Padres, the pesky title-less franchise two hours down the coast (without traffic, anyway). Their brilliant moves this offseason baited the rational Dodgers, three months after winning the World Series, into overspending for a starting pitcher they don’t need. Even if the Dodgers are still the better team this season, such a deal could prove restrictive for them and give San Diego the advantage moving forward. ..... After all, this is the same person who told Sports Illustrated two years ago, “I want to be a billionaire. Not for any other reason than just to say I did it.” So the Dodgers are tied to him for at least two years. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager—two of their best and most beloved players—are set to become free agents after this season. Keeping one, or both of them, will become more difficult with so much invested in Bauer, especially with Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler expected to get significant raises through arbitration and Mookie Betts making more than $20 million next year. The Dodgers are projected to spring well above the luxury tax line with Bauer on the books. Will ownership have the stomach to stay on that course for much longer? If so, it'd make Los Angeles the only franchise seemingly willing to do so for an extended period. https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/02/06/trevor-bauer-dodgers-contract-unintended-consequences

Pat Mahomes, Tom Brady or Matt Rodgers are not macro trends indicative of anything geographically but the critical nature of the QB position in the NFL, and scouting. Watch the Packers without Rodgers, or Patriots without Brady. Not to mention there are very few MLB players drafted who can make a team-transforming impact in their draft year or second season in the game.

That’s very exhaustive research. Of course, past trends aren’t indicative of future performance. The Buffalo of 2021 could never support an MLB franchised permanently based there. The Dodgers have made the playoffs every year since 2013. Like the Braves’ run in the 90’s and early 2000’s (and now again), not many WS titles but consistent success. Right now, the Dodgers, Padres and Braves are the three best teams in baseball, and the Yankees/Red Sox don’t look anything like they did in the past. The Yankees still spend, but even they have limits, and Cohen is desperate to make a big splash. Outside of those five teams, it would be even money in Vegas against the other 25 teams in baseball for the next 3-4 WS titles.

One “niche” the White Sox definitely have...spending millions and millions on 1B/DH types. With the exception of Abreu, we must have the lowest return on investment of any team in baseball from 2011-2020 at the DH spot. Realistically, Jimenez and eventually Grandal will be there as well.

Yes, sure, but look at where those teams are now, along with the Indians...maybe, just maybe, the Astros are a playoff team for another year or so, but they’ve already peaked. Wisconsin, for example, has been fortunate with the Brewers, Packers and Bucks, but how long can their luck hold out? Is it possible to imagine Buffalo as one of the four best MLB teams, no way, right? Twenty five years ago, they were still one of the best AAA markets in existence, but even that has faded. It feels like it will take a long time for the Central divisions to get back again to where they were from 2006-2016. The only example I can think of running against the entire “Coastal Trend” is Pac 10 football and basketball falling off the last five years. On the football side, it’s 50-75% the SEC and Saban Effect and the power of national t.v. contracts and first round draft pick bonuses. And, of course, the NCAA’s not quite professional sports, but even there you have Florida and Texas in play in terms of the SEC. Same reason for the existence of MD and Rutgers in the B10. (Of course, the Marlins, A’s and Rays are MLB anomalies that would take some additional time to explain.)

The Giants, Cubs and Red Sox are all going backwards or retrenching. Other than the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Angels...maybe the Rangers or Padres, who’s going to lead the spending? MLB has now become FANG vs. the Russell 1000. Young kids growing up basically in anywhere from the Rust Belt to Midwest to Near West can’t even dream of a World Series. It’s two coasts and flyover territory, depending on one’s definition of Texas in the new order. It’s just a reflection of life as we know it in reality. Chicago will do its best to hold on, but how many markets in the two Central Divisions can realistically even support a superteam?

Albert Belle V.2. Look at those numbers. 1 1/2 great seasons, a 3.3 fWAR (but hardly worth Lionel Messi of MLB numbers, let alone Yasmani Grandal) and everything else under 3. Unfortunately, only the Twins offering such a deal would shake the White Sox just a little bit, but they now operate even more conservatively than the White Sox after the Mauer deal went south. And Belle was unquestionably one of the top 2-3 hitters in MLB back in 1997, along with Bonds, Thomas, Griffey Jr., M. Ramirez, McGwire and Sosa. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-bauer/12703/stats?position=P On top of all that, he might be less marketable than Belle even in terms of butts in the seats. Heck, not even Zack Greinke.

At best, you’re going to get 5 years (two extra years of control) because Reinsdorf doesn’t trust long-term deals for ANY pitchers. And they’re not going to be confident in any contention window extending beyond 2025.

They have enough offense. Colas could help there, too, but who’s to say the odds aren’t equal to Adolfo being a late bloomer? It always comes down to the starting pitching. Vera seems like the one to watch, of course, along with Kelley. PS: Or praying for a Renaldo Resurrection. Btw, impressive list of names!

That is just more and more unlikely to happen...it will be the John Danks excuse. If he has another Top 5-10 AL Cy Young season, the risk/reward numerator goes higher and higher. If he’d never had TJS in the past, then it might have been possible. Let’s just wait and see how many more major pitching injuries there are this year...potentially having three consecutive shortened seasons in a row, then finally ramping up to 180-200 innings again in 2023? Sure, that’s playing things out pessimistically, but they have to do risk mitigation and look at all the worst-case scenarios. What looks like three future aces in Cease, Kopech and Crochet can quickly become just 1 or even none. That said, the big gamble right now is two out of the four (including Kelley long-term) make it, so they don’t have to give Giolito $120-130 million.

Next year the excuse will be the CBA uncertainty/potential strike and financial losses incurred in 2020-21due to Covid...will they really go out and boost the payroll into the $145-165 million range heading into that tsunami of an offseason? Maybe the MLBPA will be licking its wounds from lost salaries over these two seasons, but you’re looking at two entrenched sides that won’t easily give in, especially with the owners gaining the upper hand the last 5-7 years.

That’s still going to be high or higher if you included 2006/07 all the way through 2012, since that’s when they were spending to defend a World Series title and were paying just the starting rotation alone roughly $50 million.

Still a bit early to think about extending Lynn...need to see him for at least a couple of months, as those long-term deals for players in their 30’s have the highest bust rates. You were talking about trading an Anderson/Giolito (well, maybe more in a general sense, just following the logic) for more pieces to extend the contention window beyond 2023-24. That’s a tricky game. Moncada and Jimenez certainly have their flaws/limitations...and even Luis Robert has a lot left to prove. Vaughn, as highly-regarded as he is by many, has to hit at the same clip as Jimenez or even higher to make up for speed/baserunning and defensive deficiencies. Madrigal’s weaknesses have been dissected to death. That said, it’s challenging to think of any combination of six hitters in MLB under age 27 that’s as highly-regarded. At any rate, it keeps circling back to either Anderson or Giolito. Those are the two at closest to peak value. If if weren’t for the Padres having Tatis, Jr., and Machado, a rotation that goes 7-8 deep, STILL one of the Top 5-7 farm systems in the game...it wouldn’t be nearly so annoying. They’re clearly a much smaller market team, but they operate like they’re unafraid of anyone. Imagine what Reinsdorf would do if we were in the same division as the Dodgers every year? We’d turn into the Cincinnati Reds. We can barely put the foot on the gas pedal when the Indians are basically surrendering and the Twins went for months without doing much.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/barstools-portnoy-invests-amc-stock-losing-700k-gamestop Will give Dave Portnoy credit for allowing himself to look dumb in public. Going by the stock charts, he’s probably down around roughly another $100,000 on AMC. That said, long term...many months or perhaps 2 years out, he might get back to even. But there’s also equivalent odds he could lose his entire investment with a bankruptcy restructuring. This feels like a gambler’s mentality to go right back into the market after getting crushed on GME, attempting to make up for the previous $700k loss.

Which leads to the conclusion that overall salary increases for MLB players are not even close to rising at the inflation rate over the last decade, despite a historic ten year stock market return when the billionaire class is getting exponentially richer and player share as a proportion of total team revenues (at least until 2020) has been decreasing by 0.xx% per year over that time. They’re rising at the top and bottom, but the “middle class” veteran players in their 30s are getting crushed. One of the few areas where salaries have risen during that time is for higher leverage relievers...a consequence of the Royals’ run, Andrew Miller in the postseason and the emergence of dominant multiple inning guys.

Going by the White Sox payroll of $128 million in 2011, a full decade ago...increasing by roughly the inflation rate of 3% per year, we would now be at approximately $172 million.

See Strasburg, Stephen. Assuming Giolito has the wear and tear piled up from pitching 200ish innings the next 2-3 seasons, and well into the postseason on a consistent basis, Jerry Reinsdorf will never assume that kind of risk with a pitcher who’s already had one TJS. Except for the Top 6-8 franchises in baseball, that’s too much risk. After Darvish, not sure I can even see themselves tying down that kind of money like they did with Lester to kickstart their contention window. Those were special circumstances with Epstein that are pretty rare.

Sure, but few teams have ever pulled it off. You’re asking to trade Giolito, Tim Anderson, Moncada (value down) or Luis Robert. At the moment, Vaughn would arguably be the fifth most valuable asset. You could never get fair value on Robert because of his last weeks, so cross him and Moncada off. That leaves Giolito and Anderson, your two team leaders, and Vaughn to deal. The only way it’s even conceivable is that Reinsdorf believes the 2022 season won’t happen...but that’s a real stretch.

“Colome, Brantley, and Wacha or Hendricks and Eaton? “ I was just commenting on the previous post’s last throwaway sentence. The answer, of course, is neither those two Rays’ starters or Colome will be closing for the Twins. 2003 (Kenny Rogers), 2010 (Thome vs. Kotsay, rotating DH), guess we were overdue to have Cruz and Colome be big difference makers between the Twins and White Sox. For the FIP lovers and those unconcerned about saves/SVO, we shall see if Hendriks is worth more than twice the money. Colome’s taking a decent-sized salary cut, he’s going to be motivated to prove all the doubters wrong. For my money, I would haven taken Yates, Colome and still had money left over to spend on LH power hitting.

Most recently, early to mid-May... https://theathletic.com/2198181/2020/11/15/white-sox-instructional-league-andrew-vaughn-jake-burger-garrett-crochet/ Don’t think Getz’s optimistic quotes on Yolbert Sanchez will bear any fruit, but let’s keep the puff pieces rolling. The crazy thing is how close that “wasted” money is to the Y.Cespedes and likely Colas deals. Oh, well.