caulfield12

Four or five legit relievers are still out there. Utility guy to replace Yolmer who can play RF would be great...but they might stand pat with Leury. You’ve got Holt, Gennett and Dietrich. Could go with a C.Hernandez type over Mendick. EE or Castellanos if the money’s right...and/or they decide not to risk entering the season with Collins at DH taking 70% of the at-bats. This feels like more of a mid season move at the moment, although Stone keeps teasing another move. McHugh, although he was critical of Sox over Jimenez (before extension signed.)

We can bemoan the fact that our biggest contract now is potentially two $74 million deals...but that’s probably the most optimal approach for an organization that has never believed in investing a huge percentage of payroll in just 2-3 players. Grandal and a Keuchel run the risk of being on the downside in our most competitive years, but they’re two highly respected veteran leaders with playoff and World Series experience. In that sense, they will complement Abreu, Anderson and Madrigal quite well in terms of the leadership mix. We absolutely had to create more predictability for the rotation moving forward...there was no way around it. Whether these are incremental changes...improvements around the edges...or the kind of moves that bump us up to 85-87 wins, we’ll know soon enough. We finally have a season to really look forward to in anticipation for the first time in ages. The 2013 Royals finished 86-76 and third place in the Central...this team looks to be trending in that same exact direction. And we have the payroll space to add at mid season, but do so in a way not to avoid negatively impacting the team of 2024-26 and beyond. The big question is whether it’s a 3-4 year window or can it be extended to 5-6? Even the Cubs reached their limit at four, but they really peaked early and then faded. (They also have a more competitive division to deal with, other than the Pirates, who actually give them fits recently.)

New ESPN article had the payroll projected at $130 million. The last couple of days, have seen numbers at this site around low $90s....putting us closer to $110ish with Keuchel? Where’s that payroll tool we used to have pinned? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/# This has us closer to $82.5 million...

Nationals and Twins each offering Josh Donaldson four year contract, fwiw

An ideal 2020 season for the White Sox sees two or more of Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease or Reynaldo López tapping into their top-end stuff and rendering Keuchel to a back-end role for which he’s more than qualified. But the Sox are not a ready-made playoff contender adding finishing pieces for a World Series run. They have talent, but still only won 72 games last year, and run the risk of not being ready to contend for the division title until Keuchel is on a steeper portion of his downslope. Keuchel is a player to add when your team is getting serious, and he will make over $18 million because his track record deserves it, but is no longer someone to drag the Sox from irrelevance to championships by himself. No free agent really is, and at least the White Sox can get that pretense out of the way early, and continue to talk about how this effort is dependent on their young star core growing, and surrounding them with supporting players who won’t screw it up for them. As it turns out, even those supporting players are pretty expensive on the open market, and this winter, the White Sox can claim they’re ready and willing to pay. https://theathletic.com/1479468/2019/12/21/dallas-keuchel-is-a-key-addition-for-the-white-sox-and-an-even-more-crucial-statement/ https://sports.yahoo.com/report-dallas-keuchel-agrees-to-deal-with-white-sox-005643827.html That version of Keuchel will be a huge help to the White Sox, who will also benefit from Keuchel’s postseason experience and clubhouse leadership. The downside of Keuchel is that he doesn’t blow anybody away with his stuff. He relies on his sinker and changeup, trying to get soft contact out of opponents. It worked great when he was with the Houston Astros in his first seven seasons. He won the Cy Young in Houston in 2015, going 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. It was one of three sub-3.00 ERA seasons for Keuchel in Houston. Overall, the White Sox have an interesting mix with Keuchel and fellow veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez joining the rotation this week. Chicago also has a quartet of up-and-coming right-handers that's led by Lucas Giolito. The signing of Keuchel further indicates they believe 2020 will be a breakthrough season. Fegan, for The Athletic, far and away, is the best White Sox writer

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28348619/are-white-sox-mlb-contenders-their-reinforced-rotation The bigger unknown is the rotation. Keuchel and Gonzalez are risks in that they don't fit the prototype of what most teams are looking for these days: high velocity, high spin, four-seamers up in the zone. But both veterans know how to pitch. With Keuchel, you know what you're going to get: ground balls and that bulldog mentality. His OPS allowed, however, has increased from .619 to .704 to .764 the past three seasons, although the Happy Fun Ball affected everybody in 2019. There isn't No. 1 or No. 2 upside here, but he's a safe bet to post an ERA around 4.00 and chew up innings. Gonzalez was one of the most durable starters in the game until last season, when he made 17 starts and pitched just 87 innings. He has lived on the edge the past of couple seasons, averaging 4.1 walks per nine while his strikeout rate has dipped. He never has been a command guy, but the fact that he got just $5 million suggests the lack of interest in him. He could end up being a huge bargain, but there is also high flameout potential here given his age and peripheral numbers. ..... After going 72-90 in 2019, are these additions enough to make the White Sox a contender? Grandal, coming off a .246/.380/468 season with 28 home runs, is the big signing, but this is mostly improving in small ways around the edges, and I say that as a fan of Keuchel. The money is a little surprising given that nobody wanted him a year ago and he didn't sign with the Braves until June, but he still factors as an upgrade in a rotation that had a 5.30 ERA last season. ..... The White Sox will be a popular sleeper pick. I still have them behind the Twins and Indians and I'm not convinced they're more than a .500 team at the moment, but I'm also lower on the White Sox than most. One thing for sure, however: This will be the most interesting White Sox team in 15 years, and with young talent in Moncada, Jimenez, Anderson, Robert and Madrigal it will be one of the top must-watch teams of 2020. This article pretty much backs up Eminor’s line of reasoning. Pushes for another addition, like Castellanos or EE at DH. Skeptical about Mazara, Gio Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, Tim Anderson, etc.

3.5-3.75 is realistic for the AL. With how bad Detroit and KC are, 3.25 isn’t out of the question. Wheeler was almost at 4 in the NL East, and that division is getting tougher and tougher. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/sheehan-how-to-lose-a-fan-in-four-months/ Talks about how rebuilding/tanking teams are hurting MLB attendance, and teams trying to legitimately compete are reaping benefits, conversely

There’s no reason to apologize. I decided that complaining incessantly for the rest of the offseason about missing on Wheeler is pointless, so I’m going to attempt to be optimistic. Let the chips fall where they may. Even if it’s a repeat of Robertson/Cabrera/LaRoche or bringing in guys like Shark or Frazier, just sheer luck would dictate that eventually things have to break the White Sox way...at some point. They already are, in a way, with Minnesota falling back and the Indians closer to rebuilding/retooling than contending on the fly.

Sure, but that’s going into this year expecting Robert and Madrigal to struggle, like typical Sox rookies. While TA and McCann are obvious regression candidates...McCann was already looking at more limited playing time and Madrigal and Anderson are really going to be a nice combination that brings out the best in Timmy. His concentration/focus should be dialed up finally getting the opportunity to play for a competitive team that expects to win. Same with Abreu, defensively. Theres no obvious reason for Moncada to struggle with all the offensive firepower we have to support him, as well as the presence of Grandal and Robert. If anything, I’m more concerned with Bummer and Colome closing out games that are actually important.

And signing Cole would have required a tenth year from the White Sox or a 10-15% premium on top of the Yankees’ final number. That’s just not realistic for any team, other than maybe the Dodgers. And not even LA under Friedman has operated that way...other than giving Kershaw his last huge contract. Even the 2006 White Sox we’re unlikely to win that type of bidding war...that’s why they supplemented with trades for Javy and Thome (subsidized) instead.

You can just as easily argue that between Kopech, Cease and Lopez that you already had two in-house TOR starters (if you include Gio). Just like signing Machado the previous year would have turned out to be unnecessary with the season Moncada had. If you look at every one of McCann’s seasons and project him ignoring all those red flags but the ignore everything but Keuchel’s abbreviated 2019 season...and don’t even bother extrapolating 0.8, it’s just not the right way to go about interpreting what to expect from either player in 2020. Keuchel is projected at 2.6/2.7 fWAR, McCann at 0.2 and 0.0. And very few members of the fanbase are confident...let alone any scouts, in Zack Collins as an everyday catcher. Not to mention working with so many young and relatively inexperienced pitchers in Kopech, Cease and Dunning. It’s not like Lucas or Reynaldo are even established...certainly not Lopez after 2019. And, as it currently stands, Collins will get his shot at platoon DH unless he’s traded or they sign someone like EE.

It’s a risk, but he was averaging a 2.7 fWAR the three previous seasons. Pitchers never do well missing half the season, and he’s just one more example. In fact, you can argue that extra rest will give an extra push like it did with Lance Lynn coming off a disastrous 2018 (bounced back to 4.7) to get him into the 3s and even low 4s. Obviously, Wheeler was the more ideal player. There’s no argument about his upside being higher...as well as his floor being much lower as well due to his injury history. But we’re not the Yankees and we can’t carry the likes of Stanton, JA Happ and Ellsbury on the roster and still compete. The reality is that the rebuild would be over before it started if Wheeler went down to injury again. That’s a huge risk, even with insurance. Grandal by fWAR was one of the thirty best players in baseball and #2 catcher behind Realmuto. Unless you believe we were going to win that bidding war, Grandal was the right choice...along with the pre-existing synergy of being in his comfort zone with fellow Cuban players. Complaining about Gio Gonzalez...I don’t think it was ever realistic they were going to sign Wheeler and then add Ryu/Keuchel/Bumgarner, so he’s as good a choice as any. We keep winning the AL Central for 3 or 4 years, we’ve got as good a shot as any. And putting all our eggs into the Machado, Rendon, Cole or Strasburg basket wipes out the possibility of team-friendly extensions for Moncada, Giolito, Robert and Madrigal (not to mention Kopech, Cease or Lopez.). The White a Sox have always preferred rewarding their own players compared to overpaying free agents, but there wasn’t much choice if they wanted to compete this season.

Gennett is another name oft-discussed, Dietrich too...

Wheeler if everything went right leads you in the World Series. But Keuchel’s much more likely to stay healthy, battle his butt off and get you in the playoffs on a consistent basis, IMO. The offense is getting closer and closer everyday to being one of the best in the majors.

Agent Scott Boras negotiated the deal for Keuchel and has earned his players $936 million in contracts this offseason, including a $324 million, nine-year deal between Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees and $245 million, seven-year deals for Stephen Strasburg with the Washington Nationals and Anthony Rendon with the Los Angeles Angels. Boras is expected to clear the $1 billion mark this winter. https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/AP-source-White-Sox-LHP-Keuchel-agree-to-55M-14924840.php

Like last season’s Braves, the White Sox are seeking an innings-consumer. Keuchel can do just that while mentoring their younger pitchers. Chicago is trying to take steps toward relevancy after undergoing a complete teardown. Keuchel, while no longer a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, pitched 145-2/3 innings or more in six consecutive seasons before his shorter 2019. He hit the 200-innings plateau three times in that span and did so most recently in 2018, when he made a career-high 34 starts. While Keuchel’s Braves tenure might seem underwhelming, especially in the postseason, he served a much-needed role in the regular season. Mike Soroka and Max Fried, two youngsters headlining an enticing rotation, praised Keuchel’s leadership and mentorship throughout the campaign. https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/dallas-keuchel-reportedly-finds-home-with-white-sox/bGw05pE8gxhDZICgQrcHdJ/

Man, Twins’ fans have to be throwing their hands up in frustration after winning 101 games last year. They’re definitely not the type of organization to overbid on Ryu. Their big move still could be a Donaldson at 3B with Sano moving to 1B. They did just sign Tyler Clippard, lol.

Nolan Arenado, lol?

EE will be closer to $8-10 million. See that as much more likely than Castellanos and Ozuna, especially at a price in single figures.

Wouldn’t count on Lambert giving much of anything at the big league level this year. Still comes down to Cease and Kopech...one has to be a stud. Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, G.Gonzalez and Cease...with Kopech, Dunning and Rodon in reserve. So we finally have the depth we desperately needed. Kopech’s argument for being on OD roster is gone, too. Stiever is likely going to be groomed for back end of bullpen.

Do the DBacks really need Rosario? Seems like DBacks might be better off waiting for the trade deadline on Ray. One thing is certain, the Twins would shock the world taking on the Price deal...and they don’t need Benintendi as much, so it would come down to Boston giving up $45-50 million, roughly.

Here’s the thing. The Rockies have no realistic way to compete without Gray and Marquez, and you can probably add Freeland to the list as well. If you trade Gray, you’re not far from having to dump Arenado, Blackmon and Marquez and just completely completely blow things up...eat the contracts for Desmond and Wade Davis, etc. At the very least, they’ll see where things stand mid season. Their fans deserve that much for being so loyal to that franchise over the many lean years.

If you anticipate the difficulty of keeping your own players in the fold...and we’ve noted the challenge of signing anyone but Madrigal out of the group of 4 (including Giolito)...then you simply have to execute in free agency. (Note: it’s probably too early to consider Kopech.) You can’t keep saying “we need to preserve our unprecedented financial flexibility” forever...because doing so has considerably pushed back the window (along with prospect injuries, bad drafts/non-performance, Kopech TJ), etc. It’s simply embarrassing to be well below a $100 million payroll when we are getting at least half that amount in new monies from our broadcasting rights deal with NBC/Universal starting in February.

They just need to pick a lane. If they’re unwilling to overspend in free agency, they have to lengthen the window from 2021-23 to include 2024/25 by prioritizing extensions for their own players.

Then I don’t want to hear how fWAR is not important in capturing the true value of players like Jimenez and Mazara when Hahn is unable to keep Moncada or Robert in the fold long-term.