caulfield12

There’s still EE, Keuchel, Teheran, Wood, Walker...couple more possibilities there that are not King Felix or the Dark Knight....along with Harris, Hudson, Betances in the pen.

Actually, we did have to tank for most of the late 80’s and late 90’s. Not sure where Greg was back in 1997-99.

If we had the same success rate out of 1998-2001 prospects (we also had another #1 BA-ranked class in 2000), we win three World Series titles in the 2000’s. Along with Buehrle and Garland, Garcia and Contreras ended up being the keys. The bust rate of those pitching prospects was 75-80%. Wells and Fogg were the only other two that ended up having decent careers. McCarthy came in the next cycle/wave.

Dallas Keuchel (No. 30): I like Keuchel a little better than Keith did in his rankings, and while Keuchel went 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 19 starts with the Braves after not signing until early June, there are some possible concerns with him. He allowed a .338 OBP, his highest mark since his breakout season in 2014. His strikeout rate dipped below 20% for the second straight season after peaking at 23.7% in 2015, his Cy Young season. He compensates with a high ground ball rate and by shutting down the running game (no stolen bases allowed in 2019). He's also the bulldog type that teams love. Best fits: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Cardinals, Padres, Phillies Prediction: Twins. Jake Odorizzi accepted the Twins' qualifying offer and Minnesota re-signed Michael Pineda, but those two and Jose Berrios are the only proven starters on the Minnesota roster. There’s the Keuchel argument, in a nutshell. From previous article.

The problem is expecting 4 out of 5 guys to make it. Thats an impossible success rate for pitching prospects. Normally, you’re looking at 2/5 or 3/5. The scenario everyone is most worried about is Lopez never makes it, Giolito is more a 3 (Gavin Floyd after 2008) than #1/2, and only 1 out of Cease/Kopech/Dunning is in the rotation two years from now. Even 3/5 (and assuming one of the failures ends up a closer or high leverage pen guy), you’re looking at adding two just to be safe, having no real idea if Rodon will even be with the organization a year from now. If we felt more confident in Rodon or Dunning, sure, only add one pitcher and roll the dice. IMO, Stiever is more likely for the pen, at least that’s where most scouts are projecting him, at least ahead of Hamilton and Burdi in the current pecking order.

Nicholas Castellanos (No. 13): Castellanos is one of the most divisive free agents of recent years. He can certainly hit -- 88 extra-base hits last season, including 58 doubles, the most since Todd Helton hit 59 in 2000. Turning 28 in March, he's also the youngest of any of the top 50 free agents. While his bat is excellent, it's not really elite, as he ranked 48th in the majors in wOBA. That's the concern, because all his value comes in the batter's box, as he's a below-average defender in the outfield. Best fits: White Sox, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Indians, Rockies Prediction: White Sox. This could be a situation similar to that of Mike Moustakas the past two offseasons: a nice player without an obvious match. The Diamondbacks are desperate for an outfielder, but they have placed a big emphasis on outfield defense, and Castellanos may be out of their price range anyway. My personal choice would be the Rockies, if only to see how many doubles he could hit at Coors Field. The Rangers just traded Nomar Mazara and the Indians cleared away Corey Kluber's salary, so Castellanos fits in either place. But I'll go with the White Sox, even though they just acquired Mazara. Castellanos can fill the hole at DH and play some right field against left-handers. From Dave Schoenfeld/ESPN article

Hudson and Will Harris are the two best relievers still out there...slim pickings.

Sure, but which pitcher? How much would you give Giolito, based on just one season of success? Lopez is in the opposite situation from where he seemed to be a year ago. So there’s realistically only four (total) options, and Lucas was one of the worst pitchers in baseball the previous year. Cease or Kopech, it’s way too early to even consider. That leaves Madrigal, Robert and Moncada. Madrigal is the only one who wouldn’t break the bank.

https://sports.yahoo.com/white-sox-still-searching-others-164129322.html

https://global.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28307993/predicting-where-mlb-top-remaining-free-agents-sign Schoenfield has us signing Castellanos, good matches for Keuchel, Teheran, EE, Will Harris Sign Keuchel (need to break up all the hard-throwing RHP’s somehow) or trade Sign one of Wood, Walker, Teheran Sign Castellanos, Ozuna or EE for RF/DH Sign Will Harris for pen It would require adding somewhere between another $40-$55/60ish million in 2020 payroll. Likely to just get EE, a secondary pitcher. Maybe Gennett/Dietrich/Holt, but Leury’s presence negates the likelihood of that.

Now the biggest danger is Hahn giving overly generous four year deals to Ryu or Keuchel (that would be more defensible) or making some dramatic move for David Price out of desperation...just mystifying why the Sox are seemingly not connected to any of the pitching names remaining.

Giolito's dad is a better cheerleader than the Raiderette's in the 80's and 90's...

Never forget the almost trade between the Sox and Reds for Bailey/Dye (Hal Bodley, right?)

Do we really think the Yankees are going to let Paxton go that easily if he has a really good year? Maybe, but Tanaka would also be off the books, along with Sabathia from this past season. If they can clear Happ for salary relief, they can carve out a hole in the budget for Paxton, theoretically. At least we do know Stroman and Paxton can pitch in the AL, so there's that.

It would be pretty darned pathetic if Homer Bailey (who was cast off by the Royals and Reds) is the big solution. Heck, we might as well try to fix Dark Knight Harvey for about the 4th time the way things are trending. Yet somehow, Nova/Gio/Teheran seems even more likely now, since we keep collecting every Latin American player there is to be had. You can't take Walker and Wood with their injury histories, you need at least one guy like McHugh you can at least count on to take the ball when it's his turn. Also, no idea why we didn't make a play for Pineda, would have kept him off the Twins at least???

$60+ million is a lot for a straight platoon outfielder, especially not on one of the corners. Fwiw, they had Springer to the Giants, but he's actually from the East Coast, Connecticut to be exact. I guess the theory being that eventually they had to spend big money again, because, well, they're one of the top 6-8 franchises in baseball and there's so much money now in the San Francisco area in terms of corporate sponsors and deep-pocketed fans.

At least THAT'S a strategy, of a sort. Corner the world market on top MLB catchers and exploit it (by trading for pitching). Hold Collins back for one more year, extract the highest possible return for McCann unless it becomes more rational to hold onto him if the team is contending still in July. Of course, that requires overpaying Realmuto by 15-25% because why would he want to go to the White Sox and share time with Grandal unless there was a plan for them to both share time at catcher an DH (which wouldn't work with Abreu/Vaughn also blocking that spot in the future.)

He has consistently maintained the last half decade that this is his stated preference in terms of how he prepares for each season. We'll see if logic wins out, assuming he comes off a very strong season in 2020. The Rangers can likely be crossed off the list of potential Ryu suitors after acquiring Kluber, but the Blue Jays may still face stiff competition (for Ryu/Keuchel). The Dodgers, Twins, Angels, White Sox, Reds, Braves, Cardinals and Padres are among the other clubs that could still be in the market for a starting pitcher. Although Toronto has a strong core of young position players in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the team's ability to bolster its rotation could be the deciding factor in how soon it returns to contention. Toronto has added Chase Anderson and Tanner Roark already this offseason, but landing another starter remains a priority for the up-and-coming club. The Blue Jays are unlikely to be a serious contender until 2021, but next year's crop of free-agent starting pitchers projects to be much weaker. As a result, Toronto could strike a year early. www.mlb.com

Per Rosenthal, the Padres' discussions with the Indians regarding Kluber led to conversations about Lindor. There's no indication San Diego intends to make a serious push for Lindor, but that could change, as some of the team's baseball people are in favor of it. Part of the motivation could be to keep him away from Los Angeles. San Diego already has a shortstop in 20-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr., but the club could shift Tatis to center field if it acquires Lindor. The 26-year-old could be there for the taking if the Padres want to act, as the Dodgers don't plan to make top prospect Gavin Lux (MLB's No. 2 overall prospect) available, Rosenthal reports. MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM analyst Jim Bowden argues the Indians should insist on Lux being part of any package for Lindor. "If the Dodgers aren't willing to do a deal centered around Gavin Lux, then I wouldn't trade [Lindor]," Bowden said. "If they put Lux in it, I would work with them. ... There's a package to be made if Lux is in it. 'No Lux, no Lindor.' That's all I would keep saying every time Andrew [Friedman] called me." www.mlb.com

Maybe if we have a "Sox Mini-Drone Giveaway Night" for Bauer? That can't possible go wrong, can it? It also wouldn't be shocking to see Tanaka retire, go back to Japan or take one full year off for surgery recovery and then one final go at it with a contending team in 2021.

Found this doing some research, the dollar figures are probably too low, but it's interesting nonetheless as a starting point for discussion. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-way-too-early-2020-21-free-agency-predictions-including-where-mookie-betts-and-others-wind-up/ #3 has a write-up that will annoy Sox fans. The numbers for Joc Pederson will surprise some, as well. Basically, you have Stroman, Bauer, Paxton, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, Lester and Mike Minor as the cream of the crop. You also have Tanaka (KW gets his man, eventually??), Arrieta and Jose Quintana. Ten choices. And not all of these guys are even going to be available on the market at this time next year. Lester or Morton could retire, for example. Everyone here pretty much hates Trevor Bauer, but he makes the most sense on a one-year deal. Paxton has obviously been injured frequently, but we need a LH, and both he and Robbie Ray are the two best choices there. Obviously, Quintana, as well. Stroman will probably be the Zack Wheeler of next year's class if he has a really strong season. Either him or Bauer. It should also be noted that the bullpen pretty much has options "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE." Notable free agents for 2020-21 Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Mike Zunino, Yadier Molina First base: C.J. Cron, Yuli Gurriel Second base: Cesar Hernandez (already a FA), Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy (mutual option) Third base: Justin Turner, Zack Cozart, Jake Lamb Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar, Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar Outfield: Mookie Betts, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, David Peralta, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton (opt-out) Starting pitchers: Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana Relievers: Blake Treinen, Alex Colome, Andrew Miller (vesting option)

Except Burdi and Ian Hamilton looked like the best internal candidates for those roles. They do still have Stiever, but they absolutely cannot go into a contending season with ?'s littering the back end of the pen.

The likeliest scenario is that the Indians can't afford to invest $20-30 million into free agents for the back end of their bullpen. They have to come up with as many cheaper internal options as possible. This is yet another reason why the Burdi pick was so questionable, unless you have an absolutely elite arm who projects to be a closer, there's just too much risk involved in drafting one that high (as opposed to spreading the money around in Latin America and signing bounce-back veterans like Treinen and Stammen). Picking Poreda and Royce Ring so high should have taught them the risks. You should never draft for short-term need unless it's the final player to put you over the top. This wasn't the case with the 2016 White Sox, in even the most optimistic appraisal. For the Indians, the risk is worth the reward because they can't give Daniel Hudson or Betances $10-20 million in guaranteed money.

Clase was 30th ranked for the Rangers. At best, their equivalent of Victor Diaz. This was all about not believing in Kluber any longer at those numbers for a small market team, and payroll flexibility for one more year if they held onto Lindor.

Looking at the Nats, Braves and reinvigorated Mets, not even sure that’s true. As of right now, though, Kopech and Wheeler knocked the competitive part of the rebuild back two years. Without the external injection of five pitchers from those three trades, we’d already be talking about tearing it down. Rodon and Fulmer being the closest things to development after Sale and Q isn’t exactly a crowning achievement on most resumes.