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Everything posted by caulfield12
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Why isn’t there more pressure from new t.v. rights deal?
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
https://theathletic.com/1459378/2019/12/14/editors-column-its-not-just-about-jim-boylen-the-bulls-need-a-major-change/?source=dailyemail Jerry Reinsdorf’s watchword is loyalty and he trusts Paxson. As he should. In Melissa Isaacson’s engrossing feature on Paxson from 2017, Reinsdorf said some of the arrows Paxson has taken should have been pointed at him. “Sometimes, his hands are obviously tied by financial decisions you have to make,” he said. Have to make? Uh-huh. At this stage of Jerry’s life, a change in management would only come from Michael Reinsdorf’s urging with his father’s blessing. Jerry isn’t going hunting for new leadership and Paxson himself has essentially said in interviews that the only way he’s leaving is by quitting. Paxson knows the game and is passionate about his job, but everyone has a shelf life and the Reinsdorfs should have overhauled everything five years ago instead of just firing Tom Thibodeau, the second-best coach the organization has ever employed. Then again, the Bulls would probably be better off if they sold the team. But that’s not happening. Sounds quite familiar...especially the parallels on the coaching, front office and obviously ownership side. One interesting subplot to this season is the team’s rare attendance problems. Going into Saturday’s game, the Bulls were 11th in average attendance and 23rd in capacity, with a decrease of 3,000 fans per game and a drop in capacity of 15 percent since the 2016-17 season, the last time the team made the playoffs. I went to Wednesday’s game as a fan and there were open seats to my right and left in the 100 level. Chunks of empty seats dotted the lower bowl. In the 300 level, there were entire sections with only a handful of people. As a fan, the crowd was actually rather pleasant. Lines were shorter and the concourses were lively, but not packed. It was a breeze getting in and out of the stadium and parking lot. A good deal of fans’ first response to this organization is disgust. They expect to see bad starts and blown leads. A tangible decline in interest can’t excused or ignored or blamed on Rose’s knee injury from 2012. Something has to be done and soon. -
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-trade-rumors-blue-jays-164528125.html Sure, but we just traded for Mazara...so the need for a $10 million-ish backup left handed outfielder who will be a free agent in 2021 isn’t that great. Benintendi’s multiple years of control is the much better match. Boston is crazy to think other teams would give up prospects for that (Price/JBJr) without at least $40 million going the other direction.
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Bumgarner and AZ nearing 5 yr deal per Passan
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
That would make Fulmer, Despaigne and Detwiler almost interesting again. Well, it could be Adams or Danish, that would arguably be worse, but Covey's all-time win-loss record must be close to an MLB record (in a bad way) for someone for over 20 or 30 career decisions. I guess Mike Norris back in the early 1980's with the A's had a similarly abysmal record. -
Bumgarner and AZ nearing 5 yr deal per Passan
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
They completely misread the market...or didn't anticipate it, based on the past two off-seasons (and the exponentially-increasing number of early contract extensions signed, taking high-quality players off the market, one after another). Or they simply invested too much time and effort into Wheeler without considering the possibility they wouldn't end up signing him. Now, it's almost like they're waiting the market out to see if there are any compelling bargains still remaining in February/March. Sigh. -
The DBacks certainly don't have to trade Ray...but he's the biggest (somewhat youngish) name out there. They'd not only have to put together a trade package for this year, but they'd have to convince him to forgo free agency. The only way that happens is if he believes he's better off signing now than waiting it out with an uncertain labor situation becoming more and more of an issue. Which means they're going to have to come up a deal quite similar to the one Wheeler just signed for a pitcher who rarely pitches into the 7th inning due to elevated pitch counts/high strikeout numbers. That's a useful quality in GRF, but you also need a lock-down bullpen if you have too many pitchers limited to 5-6 innings.
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Bumgarner and AZ nearing 5 yr deal per Passan
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
That's where they can think about one of those two-year deals like the Padres signed with Garrett Richards...this is probably something I wouldn't feel comfortable with until I had a much better idea where Carlos Rodon was going to be for 2021. If there are major pitching issues (again) this season, they're going to have to get REALLY creative if they want to compete next year. -
Bumgarner and AZ nearing 5 yr deal per Passan
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
We haven't seen Rich Hill's name out there recently...keep reading where he had some type of surgery and might miss half the season, but, if that's the case, 90% chance he ends up staying with LAD or retires. At any rate, Walker and Wood would be too risky, together. You need to pair one of those names with a more stable outcome. Gio Gonzalez's name will start popping up again, too. KW always gets him man (back)? I'm pretty sure the ticket office is reading those names and thinking how much easier their next 4 months of work would/could have been had they simply been able to get Wheeler into the fold. Of course, the same is equally true in Minnesota, who had Bumgarner as their top target after Wheeler was scooped up. Might have to trade with the Mets if they fall out of it in the first half and decide to get rid of some of their excess pitching (Stroman/Wacha/Porcello)...that's going to be a tough road with the Braves, Nationals and Phillies. Thor and de Grom are likely to be well out of their acceptable price range in terms of prospect targets. 10 names. I could have simply said trade with the Mets, but it's not so simple. -
There's no WHOLE CONTRACT to absorb. If he pitches less than 160 innings this year, their (the Rangers) overall commitment is still under $20 million. He also can't be on the disabled list at the end of the season. It's a win-win either way for the Rangers, because the 2019 version doesn't get the 2021-22 options to kick in, the and the pre-2018 version is worth $25-35 million on the free agent market these days and you're happy to keep him.
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Bumgarner and AZ nearing 5 yr deal per Passan
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
If we know ANYTHING about the White Sox, it's that much...especially taking any unnecessary risks on the pitching side with their internally-controlled pitchers. Beyond the Dodgers and Angels, you have the Twins, the Phillies (even after Wheeler), Cardinals, Reds, Padres, Blue Jays, etc., connected to the pitching market. Not to mention those really smart teams (A's/Rays/Brewers) circling, that are seemingly always able to identify the right "value" plays at lower contact dollars. Throw in another mystery team like the Rockies with seemingly a hundred different directions they could go. The deck is stacked against us, even with "unprecedented financial flexibility." Crazy how the Wheeler miss has just completely thrown the entire organization for a loop, just like KW was stupefied last year when Machado balked at signing. -
Bumgarner and AZ nearing 5 yr deal per Passan
caulfield12 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
http://www.startribune.com/after-raising-the-ante-twins-must-make-major-splash/566214292/ Where’s this article from our local media? -
Sure, it would be as if Price’s $32 million salary had the Hahn/KW Special added to wipe out his 2021-22 salaries for only $1 million if he didn’t reach a minimum of 160 innings in 2020... No way they risk/ed trading him to the Twins or White Sox. Call me totally non-shocked if it will come out next week, though, that they supposedly had a better offer on the table, such as Collins and Adolfo, etc.
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Sounds pretty darned familiar... ”As usual we trade for garbage! This FO is abysmal. Deshields is another stiff in a long line of stiffs in our outfield! The minor league pitcher has career minor league potential. Move this clown show! One clown show-the Browns- is enough.” ..... As a huge Tribe fan since 1953, it makes me sick to see such a fine pitcher and fine person traded for such apparent little value? Why on earth do we need another center fielder (average at best) when Oscar Mercado is such a fine young talent? Perplexing and makes me want to give up on this ownership! ..... “Fill up yer Xmas stockings with 2020 Tribe season tickets!” “They just traded Kluber for nothing.” “What? Never mind.”
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Or LaRoche...
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Kluber posted a 5.80 ERA in seven starts during an injury-plagued 2019 season. He did not pitch in the majors after suffering a broken bone in his arm when he was hit by a line drive on May 1 in Miami. He later strained an oblique muscle during an August rehab start. Kluber’s contract includes a $1 million trade kicker and his $18M club option for 2021 will convert to a vesting option that becomes guaranteed if he pitches 160 innings in 2020 and is not on the injured list at the end of the season, according to Rosenthal. $17.5 million risk for 2020. $18.5 million total if he doesn’t get to 160 IP. Daniels will become known as pitching genius if this move works out along with Gibson after Minor and Lynn. Still going hard after Ryu. Basically taking same approach as Mets building as deep a rotation as possible.
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Thank god we’re not in the AL West, NL East, etc. Thought the proposed deal for Lindor was Lux, Verdugo and May? Or Seager/May..Seager/Verdugo? https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2019/12/cleveland-indians-trade-corey-kluber-to-texas-rangers-according-to-multiple-reports.html Basically, it’s a salary dump for the Indians. Clase was 30th ranked prospect for Rangers.
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They’re not that desperate...$25 million left for two years, they’re not going to trade Marquez even for $75 million of bad deals. Certainly not for Collins and lower tier prospects.
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I don’t think they would have signed McCann for 2020 to trade him. They really like his moxie/clubhouse presence and what he brings to the table with a young pitching staff. Collins has always been the likely one to move...signing EE would be the nail in the coffin for both Collins and Sheets, unless they still want to hold onto him for 2021 and beyond.
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97.7 average velocity. 29. Three years and $51 million remaining on contract. The closest thing to Wheeler that’s a realistic get. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathan-eovaldi/9132/stats?position=P#pitchtype
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It doesn’t matter....because Hahn’s not going to take the risk of assuming the contract without Benintendi. Taking just a subsidy of $30-45 million and Price going completely south is just too risky. It would be one thing if we knew what we were going to get out of Kopech, Cease, Rodon and Dunning...but we just don’t know yet. The Red Sox will only cut it down to 3/$60. We’re better off signing Ryu or Keuchel at those numbers. The other reason is the fact that this might be his best remaining season...and we’re still on the short end of playoff contention unless everything goes right with the Sox and wrong with the Twins and Indians simultaneously. You can’t take on what would still be one of the five biggest contracts in team history because you feel backed into a corner after Wheeler falling through. You make the Red Sox start the season with Price, Eovaldi and Sale or you get them to send another $15-30 million (bringing the cost to the White Sox into the $30-45 million range) and you use that money for EE and Wade Miley and send Collins to Boston. Only if they’re going to add those two other players should you think about this move. Just Price isn’t enough to move the needle. If the Red Sox won’t give you that kind of discount, move on and force someone else to take that risk. We didn’t completely rebuild to turn around and have everything teetering on a landline contract like that.
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And there’s the main reason it’s too much of a risk...in a world of increasing velocities, he’s trending in the exact opposite direction.
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It’s kind of the point of the whole rebuild...we had Eaton, Sale, Q and Abreu, but didn’t have enough nearly budget space to supplement the core from outside the organization. Couldn’t produce our own players successfully. If the attitude is that it’s out of their control or unchangeable...then let someone else try who believes in every fiber of their being that they can be relevant again in Chicago, the Midwest and entire country should be allowed to try. After all, the Astros had some of the worst t.v. ratings in history amid a collapsing RSN and still pulled out of it. Whatever you say about Hinch and Luhnow, they believed strongly in their vision for the organization. We still don’t even have have that defined organizational purpose. To be loyal to employees? To maybe beat the Twins and Indians and finally get back to the playoffs, I guess. Hahn can talk about championship or contention windows and getting to the postseason in consecutive years, but it often rings hollow these days when he repeats it. It’s more like a politician than someone who believes it. Machado and Wheeler have really knocked him off his game.
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Nova doesn’t work only because it proves we’re not really about making the kind of improvements that lead to playoff baseball. It’s another way of telling the fanbase we’re punting on another year and couldn’t come up with anything better, so deal with it. Had he been on another team last year, it would be a lot more palatable. He was fine...in a way....but he also represents $35-40 million of mostly wasted dollars spent last offseason that led to pretty much nothing. I guess we protected Sox fans from a worse record, but it’s not like any pitchers remained in AA and AAA because we had Nova in the rotation.
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What are Price’s velocity readings the last 2-3 years? He’s a lot like a Rodon, not nearly as effective sitting in the low 90’s.
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I don’t think they are ending on MLB.TV, but the only time it affects me is in Iowa...ironically, the rest of the world has unfettered access.
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Not if Benintendi is a 3-4.5 fWAR player instead of 2.
