caulfield12

New SoxTalk record for likes on one post. Good job, Kotsay/Epstein/Getz.

Gerrit Cole, 3.86 and 4.28 ERA’s in Pittsburgh before he became one of the top five pitchers in baseball.

Padres are sitting on a boatload of prospect capital...and they will need a CFer if Taylor Trammell busts. Manuel Margot is their version of Yolmer Sanchez. The problem here is that the Cole trade gave them Musgrove/Martin (not enough from Feliz/Moran) so they’re going to need to go for more high-end, premium talent if they are to deal Marte, who caught fire again in the second half. It won’t be a numbers game of 4-5 guys who might be 1.5-2.5 fWAR guys but MUCH more likely replacement level.

That number for Wheeler is two years and $52 million more than the initial projections... Someone got cute and wanted to figure out how to come up with a salary figure higher than Machado’s $250 million. Of course, it should actually be $17.8 + $74 + $100-105 million. That gets you to $191-196 million, not exactly $256. All told, we gave an extra 1 year/$14 million to Grandal and 2 years/$32 million to Abreu already.

Really love the feel of this so far...especially the narrative voice of Mando without the facial expressions. The 30+ minute setup works out fine, because they can invest the money they save into the action sequences. Seeing the Jawas and whatever the hell that massive rover machine is called really brought back memories. Someone criticized the soundtrack, but even then it makes sense to depart from the traditional orthodoxy of a John Williams score and try something more eclectic. Liked Nick Nolte’s turn, as well...and Werner Herzog tried his best. All things considered, pulling baby Yoda out of thin air is what has really made the series in terms of audience engagement. It’s not just about selling Christmas toys (hopefully.)

Insanity is 11 years without a playoff appearance as the only large market team in a division filled with 4 of the 8 lowest local tv broadcast rights deals in all of MLB...and operating like a “beg packer” in Thailand instead of a Top 10-12 franchise in terms of Forbes valuation. At one point we were 8th. Now we are all the way down to #13-14-15 because of JR/KW/Hahn...so the question remains, do we really want to win it all or just put the team in a position to be contending and make more moves in June/July? Even that strategy is dubious when you need to run $160+ million payrolls to get to the ALCS/NLCS.

Sure, we can play this game when/if the White Sox make the playoffs 2 out of 3 years or win another World Series. We haven’t even signed a top pitching target yet, the biggest need that can most easily be addressed for just money. Looking back at 2004-05, it was later obvious that jettisoning Ordonez, Lee and Valentin allowed us to allocate the money more efficiently across eight veteran players...and discovering Jenks helped a lot, certainly. Or we can just as easily debate Cole >>> Wheeler/Grandal/Abreu, right? Most are, at best, neutral on Abreu and we overpaid Grandal one year and about $18 million over what would have been ideal...granted, that’s the opportunity cost of shopping among the Top 10-12 Free Agents, right? At any rate, way way too early to be celebrating anything. This sounds like a thread from the year we signed Cabrera/Robertson/LaRoche...Dunn...or brought in Javy/Thome to reinforce the best team in baseball. We still have lots of uncertainty/volatility across the entire pitching staff.

Unless you’re willing to extend Betts right away for some crazy number like $400 million...then you pretty much have to find a one year fill-in. Simply because none of the other options are true difference makers, Castellanos will also be overpaid and the Abreu signing forces him out into the field or 1B, which would block Vaughn. That calculus could change with a quick Wheeler signing, but that still leaves you in need of/with: 1) Second veteran pitcher for backend 2) Insurance for Colome/Bummer/Herrera in high leverage, basically, RH relief help 3) Uncertainty about how well McCann and Collins will hit...DH could work out well or be another issue 4) Not sure you can play Garcia and Mendick as starters and hope to get out of the gate well...maybe a Gennett gets added that has the versatility to play RF and 2B. This assumes Yolmer is gone, of course. Arguably, with a Betts 6-8 fWAR season...they could still compete, but the biggest problems will obviously arise on the pitching side. With that being the case, relieving the pressure by having (at least) an above-average RF defender might be worth sacrificing some offense for. It would also relieve some of the defensive pressure Robert will be under. It’s almost to the point where you at least consider adding a CFer and moving Robert over to RF.

Add in Haniger and then you really have a post-season competitive team. But it would leave the farm system in really sorry shape, it it isn’t already...

Ford vs. Ferrari was a worthwhile watch, a tick better than the Hunt/Nikki Lauda one with Thor. Seems like retro days, with Midway being the type of movie that came out in the 1950’s, but with CGI...actually enjoyed that one more than expected, the battle scenes were awesome but exposition in between and Ed Skrein (last time I saw him was Akita Battle Angel) was over the top annoying. Frozen 2 (saw it yesterday with 4 year old son and wife) was a shadow of the first one, but with a catchy soundtrack, improved animation and more overly cute product tie-ins. It’s tolerable, but one’s mind wanders. Had a 72% positive rating at RT last time I checked. Some really cool scenes from a child’s 3-D perspective.

Konerko won us a World Series, but, even then...his last four seasons, and final two especially, we felt a bit sad for him as the ability to hit an elite fastball left him. No matter what, I can’t imagine many Sox fans were boing him. With Abreu, they would be better off booing JR, he’s the one that signed off on the contract. They would have been much better off going year to year instead of locking in a player in the heart of the contention window with declining skills. Sure, Zimmerman made it to the World Series, but they ran a good-sized payroll to get there. If we could be confident in a $160-170 million payroll going forward, it wouldn’t bother most fans that much. But we also can’t help but be aware of how this team has been run the past decade. Just citing 2006-2010 payrolls, coming off a World Series title...doesn’t guarantee we’ll be back in that Top 6-12 payroll range automatically. Signs definitely point towards it, but who the hell really knows until we see what the starting rotation and RFer looks like on Opening Day.

A team better positioned for an extended playoff run will definitely make a run at him, but more likely at the trade deadline. The new GM will have to see if they can compete in the first half...and weigh the possibility of extending him (for $325-375 million) going against every fiber of a former Tampa exec’s being.

Probably something like Calhoun, Castellanos (odds just went down considerably), Gardner, Polanco/Marte, Haniger, Nimmo, Peralta, Puig, Avi... Ozuna for RF is a huge long shot now, at best.

Moustakas would be fine for a couple seasons, but it’s dumb to even contemplate without another frontline starting pitcher. Even then, you’re better off going for the 3-5 year window than putting all your eggs in one basket. Unless we go back to 1996-97 and the try at ARod, the White Sox have have never been the team to set the market on a superstar.

Which player is most likely right now for RF...if there was a betting pool?

Look at his spray chart. He hits with more frequency and pop to the opposite field compared to pretty much any young hitter in the game today. Remember...he was only 20. Moncada required how long to hit his stride? Personally... I think he's closer to an 875~900 ops guy than 950~1000+, but his base running and defensive ability (once he settles into his career) are Top 3~5% in the big leagues. He already has the best arm... and still might grow another 1/2" or 1". When all is said and done... a player of that size has never managed SS in the way he does in terms of athleticism. A Rod is the best comp, not Griffey Jr. IF IF IF he can stay healthy.

The predictable spin will be that Renteria, Abreu and Grandal will reign him in successfully, in a way the Dodgers, Reds and Indians were completely unable to do. And that “clubhouse management/respect” is what makes Abreu’s contract a virtual bargain regardless of the fWAR output, along with playing a pivotal role in the recruiting of Machado (well, he tried), Robert and Grandal, etc.

Raspberry or Blueberry Yogurt sounds good.

They’re not even comparable in terms of overall two year trend lines (Eovaldi’s 2017-18 vs Wheeler’s 2018-19). Eeovaldi blew up largely due to his post season success and velocity. Fwiw, the rates of a second Tommy John revision after the first are somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-10%. Boras Corp would tell you the average time between major injuries is 4.5 years, which would make the likes of Strasburg (his client) seem like the better choice over Wheeler, but Wheeler has considerably fewer high-stress career innings pitched on his elbow, especially compared to Strasburg and Bumgarner. That leaves you with the Ryu injury guessing game, Keuchel or Hamels. Or maybe a trade for the likes of a Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Gray or other similarly once-hyped in the last 2-3 years of arbitration underperforming what their peripherals would argue they should actually be doing.

No win situation. He does well and some will still be annoyed with him...more than likely he would still underperform casual fans’ expectations based on the comps to 2013-14 and what looked the time to be a star in the making. From that original 9.4/4.7 average fWAR, he’s put up an 8.4 over 5 seasons, for an average of 1.7 (which also includes a third outlier season of 2.9) Worst case scenario and he’s in that 1.5ish range. Fwiw, the two projection systems at FG have him at 1.9 and 2.1. Realistically, the main reason for the team is the marketing angle...the posters of Robert, Puig, Moncada, Grandal and Abreu...competing for eyeballs with the new Cubs’ network (especially if they overcharge and there’s a backlash). Strictly a one year deal with an option based on incentives or a favorable club option for 2021 to protect against Sox prospect failure at a still reasonable rate of $10-14 million with 2020 being the low year. I think Ozuna and probably Castellanos are off the table at this point. He’s only going to be 29 and the media still follows him. Heck, put him 6th/7th in the batting order...no pressure or expectation, and he might flourish with all the attention on Moncada, Eloy, Grandal, Madrigal and Robert. That’s not even mentioning TA and Abreu. Worst case scenario is he divides the clubhouse and has to be dumped...best case is a 3ish fWAR and we make the playoffs with a suddenly scary offense with almost no weaknesses from top to bottom. Or (most optimistically) Mickey Adolfo is ready to replace him. And the cost is half (at most) of which they just gifted Abreu.

Catcher Locks: Jacob Stallings, Elias Díaz Possibilities: Free agent or trade acquisition This seems like an area where the Pirates will look to add this offseason, whether it’s through free agency or trades. The tricky part here is that both of their current catchers, Stallings and Díaz, are out of Minor League options. Maybe they’ll use that extra roster spot to carry a third catcher, especially if they add a player with more defensive versatility. Who might they seek? Perhaps free agents like Travis d'Arnaud, Robinson Chirinosor, if he’s interested in a reunion, Russell Martin. On the trade front, the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes seems like a classic Huntington-era Pirates target. The 29-year-old is behind Will Smith on Los Angeles’ depth chart, two years removed from an excellent overall season and still well-regarded as a pitch-framer despite his offensive struggles the past two years.

Just like that $4 million deferred on Abreu...or Konerko Bucks. His 2022 is already being revalued down to $11 million. By that same argument, a $364 million Machado contract was “ONLY” worth $300 million factoring in inflation!!! Wow. Herschel Walker and Bobby Bonilla are the best examples in sports contract history of never ending ness.

What’s that $/fWAR stat about the White Sox far and away having the most inefficient spending at the DH/1B positions going back to 2011? It’s a crazy number, if you think of things in terms of economic inefficiency and wasted/blown opportunity cost.

Well, that just shows how much attention I paid to baseball last season...for my supposed favorite player. Fwiw, there will be a number of articles linking Puig and the White Sox, starting out with the local a Chicago hacks. It’s just way too obvious. Shorter-term contract, former big name, also Cuban, happens to play the position which is the most glaring current positional need...and other options like Castellanos and Ozuna are being blocked at DH in 2021-22 by Abreu. Who knows, maybe Avi comes back at this rate...since JR is feeling particularly sentimental.

Not happening.